The Complete Guide to Dominating IDP, Part 4 - Linebackers

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In the first two installments of the Complete Guide to Dominating IDP, we have hit the basics and looked at defensive linemen.

IDP Guide, Part 1: Scoring
IDP Guide, Part 2: Basic Draft Strategy
IDP Guide, Part 3: Drafting Defensive Linemen

If you haven't already read those parts of the guide, it's OK—this is a judgment-free zone. But you'd better get your butt back there and read them, or The Guru will give you detention.

Dude is strict.

This time out, it's the most important position in all of IDP. The position that will determine whether your defensive starters are chiseled stone or marshmallow-soft.

Part 4 is all about the linebackers.

The Lifeblood of IDP

Make no mistake, in the overwhelming majority of IDP leagues, your team will go exactly as far as your linebackers take you. The scoring in more leagues than not is slanted toward tackles, and no position racks up more stops than linebackers. Not only does that make linebackers the highest-scoring players in most IDP leagues, but they are also the most consistent scorers from week to week.

It's like running backs 10 years ago. You cannot have too many good ones.

Unfortunately, with the advent of True Position (and the inclusion of 3-4 rush linebackers with defensive ends by many IDP providers), linebacker is also now the shallowest of the three main IDP positions. With most leagues starting 3-4 linebackers every week, the number of reliable starters at the position will run out before all the starting spots are filled. Also, if your league has a flex spot, you are absolutely going to want to slot a linebacker there.

And that means if you want to have IDP success, you're going to have to get aggressive when assembling your linebacker corps.

What to Look for in a Linebacker

Three Downs or Bust

It used to be that there were a number of considerations when targeting a linebacker in IDP drafts. There was the matter of inside linebackers vs. outside linebackers. Weighing the stability of high-tackle off-ball linebackers against big-play rush linebackers. Who had the dreamiest eyes?

OK, maybe not that last one so much.

But in 2023, there's only one thing that really matters—snaps.

In today's NFL, most teams are in passing sub-packages most of the game. That means that only one or two linebackers are on the field. And targeting those three-down linebackers is an absolute must.

Last year's highest-scoring linebacker (Foyesade Oluokun of the Jacksonville Jaguars) played 1145 snaps—99 percent of the team's total. Runner-up Roquan Smith of the Ravens played 97 percent of the snaps for Baltimore after joining the team in-season. Nick Bolton was on the field for 98 percent of the snaps for the Kansas City Chiefs. Zaire Franklin of the Indianapolis Colts was on the field for all 1,134 of his team's snaps in 2022. Drue Tranquill of the Chargers was the low man of last year's top-five linebackers, but even he was on the field 93 percent of the time.

Snaps are opportunities for production. It's not a terrible idea to roster a linebacker who plays 75-80 percent of the snaps, like Quincy Williams of the New York Jets, as depth or a bye-week fill-in. But linebackers like that are going to be more high-variance. More prone to down weeks.

And down weeks get you beat.

Guru Tip: Any Port in a Storm

Gary covered the importance of three-down linebackers, but here is something else to be aware of. There are 32 NFL teams. Most, but not all of them, have at least one three-down linebacker, while not many have more than one. Last year, for example, New England, Dallas, and Pittsburgh were among the teams that had no linebacker with 925 or more snaps. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay and San Francisco are the only teams that come to mind who had two with over 1,000. If you are in a 12-team league that starts three, there will not be enough linebackers for everyone to have three guys that play 95% of the time. That tells us two things. As Gary mentioned, we need to be aggressive and go after the third or even fourth backer before 40 are off the board. We also have to be aware of who will give us good value on a 70-85% snap share.

Target: Germaine Pratt, Cincinnati. He put up decent tackle totals while seeing roughly 80% play share but sprinkled in a fair number of big plays as well. Those, and his ten pass breakups, boosted his consistency. In the Footballguys default IDDP scoring, Pratt reached double-digit points in eight games, falling short of eight points just three times on the season.

Sleeper Target: Krys Barnes, Arizona. He never held an every-down role with the Packers and only played when someone was injured, but when he was called upon, Barnes was the most productive two-down linebacker in the game. He may have to hold off rookie Owen Pappoe for the job, but if Barnes ends up starting, he should be a healthy contributor as an LB4 or LB5.

All Hail the Green Dot

When you play in IDP leagues, you will hear a lot about the Green Dot. It's not a skin condition—it denotes the player on defense who wears the helmet communicator and relays in plays from the sidelines. The importance of the dot is that the player wearing it very rarely comes off the field. And that player is usually a linebacker.

It's not essential to prioritize Green Dot linebackers over other every-down players at the position—Roquan Smith didn't wear it last year and did just fine. But it's worth noting that of the top-10 IDP linebackers in 2022, eight wore the helmet communicator for their team.

As training camp gets rolling in earnest, Footballguys will have an article that denotes both the every-down linebackers for all 32 teams and the player expected to wear the helmet communicator. It's information you'll want to acclimate yourself with before the draft.

Experience Not Required, but Helpful

The learning curve at linebacker isn't as steep as at edge-rusher. We have seen first-year linebackers come in and absolutely dominate—Shaquille Leonard was the overall No. 1 IDP in 2018. We have seen rookie linebackers like Devin Lloyd of the Jaguars start the season as every-down players only to lose their spot in the lineup after early-season struggles. And we have seen rookie linebackers like Nakobe Dean of the Philadelphia Eagles barely play at all in their first season.

In 2023, Jack Campbell of the Detroit Lions appears fairly entrenched as a three-down starter out of the gate. But the other first-year linebackers need to be viewed with a measure of skepticism until we have a better idea of their role in the upcoming season.

Guru Tip: Be Patient (and Wary) with the New Guys

Gary pointed out that the learning curve tends to be a little flatter for linebackers. I don't disagree, but I will say that the complexity of today's NFL defenses is causing a lot more redshirt first seasons than we saw ten years ago. Logan Wilson (Cincinnati Bengals), Nick Bolton, Jamin Davis (Washington Commanders), Jordyn Brooks (Seattle Seahawks), Pete Werner (New Orleans Saints), and Nakobe Dean are all linebackers that were drafted early but played either a lesser role or not at all as rookies.

Avoid the Mud

There are a few teams where calling the linebacker position cloudy is being kind. The Houston Texans have a crowded linebacker room and no clear-cut starters. The Kansas City Chiefs signed Drue Tranquill in the offseason, but he has to get past Willie Gay Jr to start opposite Nick Bolton. It may not be feasible to avoid these situations altogether, and hopefully, as we move into training camp, we'll gain some more clarity regarding these situations. Just don't overpay for maybes and question marks.

Guru Tip: Matchups, Matchups, Matchups

If you land three or four every-down guys, they are in your every-week lineup pretty much automatically. When injuries or bye weeks hit, however, most of us will have to roll the dice on some second-fiddle guys. Pay attention to who they are playing. If the guy is not seeing much sub-package action, you don't want to throw him out there against a team that spreads the field with multiple receivers. Look for opponents with a good running game and/or a tight end who is a big part of the offense. Once we get to the bye weeks, there is enough data to tell who those teams are. I would suggest bookmarking our IDP matchup tool.

Building an LB Group

Step 1: The Terrible Twosome

Back in Part 2 of this Guide, I wrote that IDP managers don't have to set the pace on defense. You don't have to be the first player to draft an IDP—to be the person who selects Roquan Smith or Foyesade Oluokun. But when those players come off the board, it should set off a timer of sorts in your head.

Because I also meant it when I wrote you need to be aggressive at linebacker. You want to start building your linebacker corps with one of the top 5-6 linebackers on your board—or on my board, whatever. He's your foundational piece. Your linchpin. A proven and consistent statistical performer.

Mind you, this doesn't mean you have to draft the fifth or sixth linebacker off the board. One of those players may drop a little. But you need to get a high-end linebacker to build your IDP roster around.

And then, within a few rounds after that (depending on the draft flow and your other needs), you want to circle back after a second top-12 to top-15 linebacker. A Robin to play alongside your Batman. A second linebacker who has shown not only that he can post big scores but do so with regularity.

Target: C.J. Mosley, NY Jets. At 31, Mosley is getting up there. But his age causes him to drop in some drafts. But over the past two seasons in New York, Mosley has averaged 163 total tackles and posted top-10 IDP numbers.

Target: Zaire Franklin, Indianapolis. Some IDP managers appear to be skeptical that Franklin can back up last year's 167 total tackles and 102 solo stops. But he'll play every down opposite a player in Shaquille Leonard who has struggled to stay on the field in recent years.