High-Priced Targets for Salary Cap Drafts

Drafting a championship-caliber salary cap roster requires finding some deals somewhere during your draft. If you pay market price for everyone, you will have a decent team that may compete but won’t have the punch to win a title. So, it is important to think about who might come at a discount in your salary cap rooms and why.

Usually, players end up being good candidates to be a target because they either underperformed last year for a reason beyond their control, their situation has markedly improved this year, or they were playing hurt last year. In some cases, the market doesn’t properly adjust after a down year, and the effect in a salary cap room is bigger than in a serpentine draft.

When looking at the top tiers of players for targets, the paradigm has to be slightly different than it is for the lower-tier players. Getting a deal on a top guy may mean only getting a few bucks off the market price, but that is still important to try to find. Managers aren’t going to let you get Patrick Mahomes II for $22 (when he usually goes for more than $30), but if they let you have him for $28, that’s still considered to be a good deal for a high-priced player. In future articles in the series, you can take a look at some players from lower tiers. But for now, who should you be looking at near the top of the draft sheet?

QUARTERBACKS

For this article, you want to focus on the Top 7 quarterbacks as there is a clear delineation in price between those guys and Trevor Lawrence checking at QB8. The top three guys (Patrick Mahomes II, Jalen Hurts, and Josh Allen) are not great targets as they are too popular. Between the next three guys (Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, and Justin Fields), there is usually someone in the room that likes these guys enough to take them into the low-to-mid $20s. If they fall below $20, then you should be there to bid or price enforce until they get over that mark. Otherwise, there is only one guy in the Top 7 that qualifies as a target, and that is Justin Herbert.

Making a case for Herbert in fantasy football is easy, so you don’t need to be bored with all the details. He can lead the league in passing yards, he has one of the best offenses in the league, and his pass rate always comes close to leading the league. All of these things mean Herbert can challenge for the Top 3 at the position by year’s end, and he can do so with a QB7 price.

The reason he’s a target in salary cap rooms is his poor 2022 as compared to expectations. He lost his star left tackle early in the season, plus his top two receivers, and then was injured himself. This has left a bad taste in people’s mouths, and this summer, it is reasonable to think Herbert can be had for about $17, sometimes even a few dollars less. Compared to the Top 6 quarterbacks, who all will cost more than $20, there is clear value in Herbert, and he’s the only high-priced quarterback target if you’re looking for a discount.

RUNNING BACKS

In years past, it has been hard to find value at this position, but that is changing. The top running backs are now cheaper than the top receivers. Does this mean there is value there? Not automatically, no. Value is relative to the points they’ll score and the value of other players of similar rank on your draft sheet. But the depressed running back prices do make for some tantalizing targets.

What is considered high-priced for this article? It makes sense to set that mark right around the end of Round 4, which is where Dameon Pierce checks in at RB18. This lines up nicely as he is a middling RB2 and, below that line, gets into mid-priced players that will be included in the next article in the series. Here are some targets to consider.

Saquon Barkley – Despite finishing the year as a rock-solid producer and the PPR RB5, Barkley still slips below guys like Nick Chubb and Bijan Robinson in drafts. Barkley’s 76 targets are easily repeatable, and now he’s playing motivated on a 1-year deal to try and land a nice contract next year. But the general feeling around Barkley is lukewarm enough that he’s slipped below $40 in some salary cap drafts, and even if he breaks $40, he’s rarely going more than a few dollars over that. Barkley has the overall RB1 in his range of outcomes, and if he’s coming at a discount from the guys ahead of him, it makes him a guy to watch in your draft rooms.

Josh Jacobs – Last year’s overall RB3 is in a contract dispute. History isn’t kind to running backs with 393 touches the previous year, but Jacobs is going at a substantial discount that seems to bake in the risk. He can often be had for less than $30, but he’s fine to draft in the low $30s too. Managers are worried about Jacobs for one reason or another, but that’s the cue for savvy salary cap drafters to pounce. When you’re pouring money into wide receiver, Jacobs can make a nice RB1 for fantasy squads at a steep discount.

Najee Harris – Harris isn’t exciting, but that’s why he’s on the list. Regardless of the Jaylen Warren rumors, Harris is still in line for 300+ touches, and that’s the number one correlation to fantasy success for running backs. There is ample evidence that Harris’ uninspiring first half of 2022 was injury-related, so take the discount on Harris in the mid-$20s for a guy who will see the ball a lot and should look more like his second-half self.

Joe Mixon – The ridiculously low price from the offseason hasn’t fully corrected itself yet. Although he’s been rising up draft boards lately, he’s still too low for his situation. Regardless of his efficiency issues last year, he still projects to be heavily featured in one of the most high-powered offenses in the NFL this year. Getting Mixon for around $22 is fine, but see if you can grab him for a few dollars less. He makes a perfect volume-based RB2.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Using a similar cutoff for the receiver position seems appropriate as well. The end of Round 4 features guys like Terry McLaurin (WR22), D.J. Moore (WR23), and Christian Watson (WR24), and then there is a small tier break to WR25 (Drake London). What guys in the Top 24 look like good targets for your team?

Cooper Kupp – The recent injury elevates the risk of this pick, but the payoff is worth chasing. Even before the injury, he was the clear third receiver off the board behind Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase. His price was often $6-$10 cheaper than the top two, which doesn’t make a lot of sense when you consider that Kupp was the WR1 before he got hurt last year. The recent hamstring injury isn’t great news for him, but his price is now slipping even further, and signs point to him being ok by Week 1 despite his heightened chance of reinjury. This pick is not for the faint of heart, but Kupp is so good that if you’re getting him for $45 or less, you simply can’t pass that up.

Davante Adams – Managers are nervous about the quarterback change and the health of new starter Jimmy Garoppolo. But the quarterback is practicing, and Adams still languishes low enough in drafts that he can be had for mid-$30s. He’s a target up to $40, and drafters just need to remind themselves that Adams is virtually quarterback-proof. It’s easy to let the Garoppolo issue cloud your judgment, but drafters are treating the problem more like it’s Zach Wilson back there, not a guy who helped Deebo Samuel become an impact fantasy star. The Raiders quarterback can get the ball out, and that makes Adams a strong salary cap target.

Keenan Allen – Serpentine drafters are still investing a fairly high pick in Allen, but salary cap drafters can nominate Allen while the sexier picks are still out there (Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave), and he should see a low $20s price for a guy who can still produce like a WR1 for your squad. His injury was tough to stomach last year as he came back and left again before finishing the season. The by-product is that managers were burned, and this means the draft room is overcorrecting. He’s played 16 games in four of his past five seasons and 14 or more in all five, so you don’t have to fall into that trap. Take the discount.

Amari Cooper – Despite a Top 10 season (WR16 in points per game), Cooper still isn’t being recognized as an elite producer. He spit out a line of 78/1,160/9 playing with Jacoby Brissett and the rusty Deshaun Watson and commanded the most targets he’s had in his career. If Watson can just be Brissett, then Cooper will be a borderline WR1 again, and if Watson plays anything like his pre-2021 self, then Cooper is a steal at right around $20 in salary cap rooms.

Jerry Jeudy – Jeudy’s price needs to drop below $18 to feel like it’s a value, but that’s been happening in plenty of draft rooms. He averaged almost 14 PPR points per game in his healthy contests playing in a dysfunctional offense last year. This still allowed him a WR30 finish, so that seems to be a reasonable floor to expect. Grabbing Jeudy for ~$15 is perfect for teams where you want to build deep at wide receiver because he makes a dynamic WR3 or WR4 for your team.

TIGHT ENDS

There are only three candidates that can be called high-priced for this article: Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, and T.J. Hockenson. Kelce doesn’t qualify as his price is usually in the mid-to-upper $40s, although technically, who is a target more than he is? Andrews doesn’t qualify either as he’s still being priced as though he will be the unquestioned TE2 to end the year with a significant gap over Hockenson.

But Hockenson does have some merit as a target. He finished the year last year as the second-ranked guy behind Kelce, yet he’s still only commanding a price of around $16. Since Andrews is going for around $22, that $6 gap makes Hockenson the perfect target. His 2023 resume is every bit as attractive as Andrews, yet he’s got a sizeable discount. Don’t overthink Hockenson’s situation too much. He’s going to be a target hog yet again, and paying a mid-teens price is reasonable. Try to nominate him before Kelce and Andrews are gone and see if you can snag him for $13-$14 and push your edge a little bit further.

CONCLUSION

Remember that targets at this price range don’t look the same as they do later in the draft. Most of the time, these names come up early, and there is a lot of cash in the room still. That means that you have to go after guys who have a wart on their resume of some kind. Using that to leverage a good deal and then landing other top players along with these targets is the way to get an elite roster when you leave the salary cap room.

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