The fallout from the opening round of NFL games always creates a whirlwind of both disappointment and opportunity. The decisions we make this week and next will go a long way toward determining the level of success we will have this year or lack thereof.
Those who have been reading The Eyes of the Guru over the years have heard this before. The advice is always the same. Make decisions based on situations that can be explained, not just on the raw numbers from one week of games.
Flukes happen every week of the season. They just shine brighter in Week 1 because we are so hyped up and desperate to add that player that will win the championship for us. He might be out there; just be sure you're not the manager who cuts the guy who would have won the championship for you to pick up this week's shiny object.
Before I get into the teams, I want to mention something I noticed in Week 1. Compared to the last couple of years, more teams were fielding two full-time (85% or more) off-ball linebackers, and several teams that used mass rotations on the edge in the past kept their starters on the field for at least 70% of the snaps. One week does not make a trend, but it takes one game to get a trend started.
Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals were not among the teams that had a pair of three-down linebackers, nor did the front line have anyone who played more than 60% of the snaps. Arizona fielded three safeties on 70% of the defensive snaps with K'Von Wallace as the third man. Kyzir White was on the field full-time at linebacker, while Josh Woods joined him on just 39 of 71 plays. Krys Barnes also picked up 19 snaps, so the team had two linebackers on the field roughly 82% of the time, but they are giving us one useful player at the position.
Dennis Gardeck jumped out to a great start, going 3-1-2 with a forced fumble. That will have him on a lot of waiver lists. Be aware, however, that Gardeck played 28 snaps. It was Zaven Collins who led the team's edge defenders in playing time, logging 42. For everyone thinking Collins might be another Haason Reddick, things are not looking good so far. Collins totaled two assists but saved his otherwise dismal point total with an interception and a fumble recovery.
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons were in nickel on roughly 72 of 77 snaps, with corner Dee Alford as the fifth defensive back. As expected, it was Kaden Ellis calling plays in the huddle, but there are no worries for those who are counting on Troy Andersen. He was on the sideline for one play. Both players reached double-digit points, with Elliss having a slight edge in this one. It could easily go the other way in Week 2.
While both linebackers gave us decent totals, it was Jessie Bates who stole the show. At 5-5 with a forced fumble and a pair of interceptions, Bates was the game's top defensive back for the week. He is not going to give us multiple turnovers very often, but we have seen this kind of production from Bates in the past. Enough to know it was not a mirage. If he is available in your league, make Bates the top defensive back on your waiver list
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens secondary is a M.A.S.H. unit already. They went into Week 1 with Damarion Williams and Travon Mullen already on IR and Marlon Humphrey sidelined with a sore foot. Add Marcus Williams to the list after he suffered a shoulder injury that will put him on the shelf for a while. Brandon Stephens (8-4) and Ronald Darby (6-1 PD) got the start on the corners and will continue to do so until Humphrey can return. They are both candidates to start for us this week against a talented Cincinnati offense that's looking to rebound.
Kyle Hamilton was quiet against the Texans, going 2-1 on the day. This had more to do with the game script that saw Baltimore dominate than Hamilton's play. He should have much better numbers against the Bengals.
Geno Stone (1-1) and Ar'Darius Washington (3-3-1 PD) filled out the secondary in Week 1. They should continue to see a lot of action going forward. Washington, in particular, is someone to keep an eye on.
Patrick Queen (3-8-1 PD) and Roquan Smith (8-8-1) both saw 100% of the playing time in Week 1.
Buffalo Bills
After he missed much of the offseason with a sore hamstring, the biggest news from the Bills in their Monday night loss to the Jets was the presence of Terrell Bernard as the starting middle linebacker. Bernard went on to lead the team with eleven combined tackles. Only four of them were solo, but that, too, was enough to tie for the team lead. Thanks to an interception, Matt Milano managed more fantasy points in this particular game. The most important point is that both players worked on every defensive snap.
Carolina Panthers
Vonn Bell's total of two tackles and one assist were a disappointment, but don't overreact. The only Carolina defenders with more than three solo stops were tackle Derrick Brown and defensive end Brian Burns. There was simply not much opportunity for the safeties. Bell logged every defensive snap and should be fine going forward.
Jeremy Chinn's numbers were a little better but still not great at 3-4-0. As expected, he was not on the field in all situations, seeing 73% of the action.
Just as we shouldn't put too much weight on Bell's lack of production in Week 1, neither should we get too excited about Derrick Brown's 8-1-1. Brown is a good option for those in tackle-required leagues and could have some value in formats that lump the positions together as well. One huge positive for Brown is playing time. He saw a 96% share of the pie in Week 1.
Jaycee Horn left the game with a hamstring issue. C.J. Henderson is in line to start at corner this week.
Chicago Bears
Both T.J. Edwards (6-8) and Tremaine Edmunds (7-1) turned in solid numbers against the Packers. The best news for those managers with either of them is that both stayed on the field full-time.
The Bears could be without Kyler Gordon for a bit. He left Sunday's game with a hand injury.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals and Brown played in a constant heavy rain. That probably had some effect on the box scores, but it seemed to bother the Bengals offense a lot more. Maybe it was the weather, maybe it was the matchup, or maybe it is just how they plan to roll in 2023, but Germaine Pratt saw 89% of the action while leading the team in both solo tackles and fantasy points. He is good in coverage, so it has never made much sense that Pratt did not play full-time in the past. He should be in line for another strong outing against the Ravens in Week 2.
Chidobi Awuzie was in the starting lineup, but he split time with rookie D.J. Turner almost equally. Awuzie is the team's clear starter when healthy, so we should see his workload increase going forward.
Both strong safety Nick Scott (4-7) and free safety Dax Hill (5-1 Int.) put up good numbers in Week 1. That production is enough to land them on a lot of waiver lists. I am not going to disagree with that, but keep in mind that what we saw versus Cleveland was not the Bengals we are going to see the rest of the season. If Vonn Bell and Jesse Bates were not productive behind that front seven over the last two years, I'm not sure Scott and/or Hill can be either, at least not with any consistency. Pick one of them up if you are in need but I would look for other waiver options first.
Cleveland Browns
Before you panic or get down on your Cleveland defenders, keep in mind that the Bengals offense was horrible in Week 1. That said, there are both positive and negative takes from the Browns' defense.
On the positive side, Cleveland went with a three-man rotation at defensive end. Alex Wright was the fourth to see a few snaps, but his role was very limited. Meanwhile, Myles Garrett was on the field for 73%, while both Za'Darius Smith and Ogbo Okoronkwo saw more than 60% of the action. It would be nice to see a pair of 70% guys, but a 70 and two 60s is a lot better than what we were getting from most teams last year. Smith was quiet against Cincinnati, while Okorokwo turned in a 2-1-1.
The optimism at defensive end is trumped by pessimism for the linebacker position. No Cleveland linebacker played more than 43 snaps or 77%, and the guy most of us expected to be the best fantasy option, Anthony Walker, played 33 or 59%. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah had the best numbers with a pathetic 2-1. Because he has been highly productive in the past, Walker gets a spot on the bench but should probably stay on our rosters for at least one more week. If you have anyone else from this group, cut them and move on.
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas took a page out of the Eagles' playbook with seven sacks against the Giants. Like last year's Eagles, five players contributed at least one, and also, like the 2022 Eagles, the Cowboys used so many players in the rotation that it's hard to trust anyone other than Micah Parson in our lineups. Demarcus Lawrence went 1-0-1 but saw just 30 snaps, Dorance Armstrong was 3-0-2 on 18 plays, while seven other defensive linemen all saw at least 17 snaps. Parsons (57%) was the only one to exceed 50%, and he played some of those at linebacker.
A lot of teams showed two full-time off-ball linebackers in Week 1. Dallas was not one of them. In fact, they didn't even give us one. Damone Clark got the call in the middle as anticipated, but he played 66% of the snaps and was quiet in the box scores at 2-3. Leighton Vander Esch posted a respectable 6-0 despite playing two more snaps than Clark. We might point to the blowout win as the reason neither player saw more action, but the fact is, the only backup to get on the field at either position was Devin Harper who logged three snaps.
Denver Broncos
Josey Jewell (1-5) and Alex Singleton (4-4) were disappointing in Week 1, but there is no reason to believe that will continue. Both were on the field for at least 90% of the action but the Raiders didn't provide much opportunity. Las Vegas barely averaged over two yards per carry on their 20 rushes, and their running backs and tight ends combined for four catches. Jewell and Singleton should fare much better going forward, starting this week versus the Commanders
Denver is thin at safety after Caden Sterns, who was the top backup at both positions, was carted off with a knee injury on Sunday and is done for the year.
Zach Allen didn't exactly fill up the stat sheet at 2-3, but it is noteworthy that he played 94% of the snaps. He is a good player and that much opportunity is going to pay dividends more often than not.
Detroit Lions
The Lions played nickel on 73% of their defensive snaps. After all the talk about how much they love Brian Branch, it's surprising the number is not higher. Branch wasted no time making an impact on a pick-six, but he had just two tackles and an assist to go with it. That, and the fact he played just 68% of the snaps, is reason for a little concern.
Detroit played a lot of linebackers against Green Bay. Alex Anzalone was in the lead role, going 5-1 with a pass breakup on a 94% snap share. He was the only linebacker to see more than 27 snaps. Derrick Barnes played 27, Jack Campbell 25, and Malcolm Rodriguez 14. The good news is that Campbell had a role and stood out. Hopefully, that will lead to more playing time soon.
Kerby Joseph was so-so on the stat sheet at 3-0, but he looked good on the field. He's not going to put up great tackle totals on most weeks, but this defense is going to make plenty of big plays, and Joseph will have his fair share of them. Both he and C.J. Gardner-Johnson logged every snap in Week 1.
Detroit moved their defensive linemen around a lot. Defensive ends Aiden Hutchinson, Charles Harris, and John Cominsky all lined up inside at times. Hutchinson was a wrecking ball, no matter where he started.
Green Bay Packers
Quay Walker recorded a pick-six, then promptly left the game with a concussion after a big hit at the goal line on the play. Considering it was late enough in the game for him to have played 49 snaps, Walker's tackle totals of 1-3, were not very good. If he is your guy, keep an eye on his progress through protocol and be ready with plan B just in case.
Rashan Gary was active in Week 1 but is being eased back into action slowly. The Packers used a six-man rotation on the edge, with Kingsley Enagbare leading the way in playing time with 41 snaps (55%). Gary played 12.
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Houston Texans
The Texans got a scare when Jalen Pitre was taken to the hospital during their game with Baltimore due to a chest injury. He was released after being diagnosed with a bruised lung. While the news is good for the long term, it is unclear if he will be able to go in Week 2. If Pitre sits out, Eric Murray will get the start. Murray has been around for a few years. Plenty long enough to prove he is not IDP-friendly.
The 2022 Texans were among the several teams that did almost a hockey-style line change along their defensive front every few plays. As is normally the result, that kept all of their linemen, and especially their pass rushers, from having consistent fantasy value. With the new scheme and the addition of Will Anderson, that seems to have changed. Both Anderson and Jonathan Greenard stayed on the field for at least 75% of the snaps versus Baltimore.
He missed most of last year with injuries but the last time Greenard saw that kind of playing time consistently was in 2021 when he went 22-9-8 with 4 batted passes and 2 forced fumbles in nine games. Both Greenard and Anderson got off to a good start, each posting four solo stops and a sack against Baltimore. I see Greenard as a better addition than guys like Drake Jackson and Dorance Armstrong. Greenard has just as much potential and is in line for more consistent opportunity going forward.
The Texans threw us a bit of a changeup in Week 1. After seeing Christian Harris wear the green dot while playing with the first team during the preseason, it was Denzel Perryman on the field for 95% of the plays in Week 1, while Harris played 72%. Both players were productive for us with Perryman totaling eleven combined stops and Harris going 4-2-1. The last time Perryman was able to maintain such a role, was with the Raiders in 2021. That year he had career-best numbers of 102-51 and 3 turnovers.
Indianapolis Colts
There is good news for Colts fans and IDP managers who took a chance on Shaquille Leonard. His numbers were respectable at 3-5, but more importantly, he played 86% of the snaps with no injury setbacks reported as of Wednesday afternoon. Once he knocks the rust off, Leonard could cut into the big numbers of Zaire Franklin, who was huge in the opener (10-8, FF, PD).
We're pulling hard for Leonard to stay healthy, but in case he doesn't, E.J. Speed reminded us what he is capable of. Speed played 29 snaps against Jacksonville, many of those in three linebacker sets, and went 3-2 with a forced fumble. If you have roster space for a big upside guy who is an injury away from being an IDP starter, consider rostering Speed for safekeeping or as a handcuff for Leonard.
On my Monday notepad, I mentioned that Nick Cross had gotten on the field. It turns out that was a false alarm. His two tackles were on special teams.
I've not yet had a chance to review the entire game, but from the plays I have seen, it looks like Kenny Moore is playing on the outside most of the time again this year. When they put him in the slot, Moore is an IDP beast for a corner. On the outside, we will see a lot more weeks with numbers, like his three solo stops in Week 1.
Samson Ebukam started opposite Kwitty Paye but shared time virtually evenly with Dayo Odeyingbo
Jacksonville Jaguars
Josh Allen got close a lot in 2022, but unless your league gives points for QB pressures and hits, his value was not great. As is often the case when players have seasons like that, Allen is already turning some of those close ones into sacks. No one can continually put up this kind of production, but Allen's 8-2-3 against the Colts was not a fluke and not completely unexpected.
Trevon Walker had a great first half against the Colts, going 3 -3-1. Unfortunately, he vanished in the second half. It was still one of the best games of his young career and lends reason for optimism.
Andre Cicso (7-3 FF) picked up right where he left off with last year's injury, outproducing Rayshawn Jenkins 5-0. This is not a fluke, either. If Cisco has been overlooked in your league, snap him up.
Where is Devin Lloyd? The answer to this question may need another week to figure out. He played every snap but managed a meager 1-2 with a fumble recovery. We saw similar production from Lloyd last year, right before he was benched in favor of Chad Muma. Stay tuned.
Kansas City Chiefs
Trent McDuffie was in the slot role most of the time against Detroit, and Like L'Jarius Snead last year, he made the best of it with big numbers. This makes McDuffie a strong candidate for a top five among corners and a top twelve among defensive backs. There is still a little grey area, though. We saw the Chiefs flip-flop their roles a time or two down the stretch last year, so it's not a guarantee that McDuffie with have that role every week.
As for Snead, he is not likely to repeat last year's stellar production but is far from a throwaway. Snead also saw a lot of snaps either in the box or in press coverage at the line versus the Lions. He almost got home on a blitz and managed six combined stops.
Michael Danna may not be a superstar, but he is a more than capable starter for the Chiefs. He reminds me a little of Sam Hubbard, a solid, dependable three-down end who may never reach double-digit sacks in a season but will get close while contributing strongly in the tackle columns. What makes Danna a significant fantasy target for this week's waivers is that the Chiefs are among those teams that appear to have moved away from the mass rotation approach. Danna went 4-2-1 and knocked down a pass on 86% of the snaps in Week 1. This change is a huge boost for George Karlaftis as well. He played 84%.
All the Chiefs linebackers had a slow night on Thursday. Nick Bolton will be just fine, but the same can't be said for sure about Willie Gay Jr. He was relegated to a part-time role, going 2-1 on less than 70% of the snaps. Meanwhile, Drue Tranquill was 1-1 on 13 plays.
A couple of final notes on the Chiefs: Chris Jones ended his holdout and signed a one-year deal. He could /should play in Week 2 but might see less action than normal as he works into football shape.
Bryan Cook (4-3 FR) is going to be a lot more productive than Juan Thornhill ever was at the safety position.
Las Vegas Raiders
Raiders were in a nickel on 94% of their defensive snaps, with Nate Hobbs, Marcus Peters, and rookie, fourth-round pick Jakorian Bennett as the three corners. Denver didn't throw at Peters much, but both Hobbs (8-4) and Bennett (7-0) put up good numbers. This was not unexpected from Hobbs, but Bennett is a surprise. If he has another strong outing in Week 2, don't wait any longer
Trevor Moehrig left Sunday's contest with a thumb injury and could miss some time. Roderick Teamer is the next man up.
Put the Raiders on the list of teams with two full-time linebackers in Week 1. Neither Devine Deablo (5-4) nor Robert Spillane (4-3) put up big numbers, but both remained on the field in virtually all situations.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers defense struggled last season and picked up right where they left off in Week 1. Their run defense was much better, but it's hard to tell if that is because the team is improved in that area or simply because they were so easy to throw on. Whatever the reason, they recorded no sacks, no turnovers, and gave up 466 passing yards.
Alohi Gilman had a big game with nine solo stops and a pair of assists, but the numbers have a lot to do with how much the Dolphins threw. Chargers' free safeties rarely give us consistent production.
Los Angeles is yet another team that had a pair of off-ball linebackers on the field for at least 90% of the snap in Week 1. Eric Kendricks played all of them but put up a modest 4-3 with a pass breakup. Even a 90% play share was not enough to make Kenneth Murray (2-1) relevant though.
Los Angeles Rams
Russ Yeast did indeed get the start ahead of John Johnson at strong safety but was not at all impressive. Yeast never left the field but could muster just one tackle and one assist on 51 plays. We will have to keep an eye on this situation to see if either Yeast steps up or the team turns to Johnson.
Ernest Jones went 4-4 against Seattle. The numbers are not impressive, but he was the only Rams defender with more than three solo tackles, so maybe the matchup had a lot more to do with it than the quality of his play.
The Rams put their name on the list of teams with a pair of edge defenders that exceeded 70% of the snaps. Michael Hoecht, at 92%, and rookie Byron Young, at 84%, were each credited with half a sack. For a team that doesn't have much to work with on paper, these two could prove surprisingly productive for us
Miami Dolphins
We probably should not be surprised with what we saw from the Dolphins' defense, but a lot of people were. Many expected David Long to start and/or at least have a significant role. That was not the case at all. After being listed as a starter all summer and sitting out most of the preseason with the starters, Long was on the field for all of 17 snaps against Los Angeles. The Dolphins used some five-man fronts and were in nickel personnel almost 75% of the game, with Jerome Baker as the only linebacker most of the time. In most situations like this, I might suggest sitting on Long for one more week to see what happens. With the Dolphins and their wonky way of playing defense, I'm moving on from Long immediately.
The situation was similar at safety in that Brandon Jones sat out with the starters during the preseason while DeShon Elliott worked with the second team much of the time. When the game was real, Elliott was on the field while Jones played two snaps. The only question here is if Jones has fully recovered from last year's knee injury. This could be one of those deals where as soon as we drop him, Jones returns to the starting role. The way I see it, he is either not 100% or has been replaced. Either way, there are a lot of good targets on the waiver wire this week. Jones could be good, but he is not worth the gamble, especially in re-draft leagues.
Minnesota Vikings
With all the buzz surrounding him over the last several weeks, it was not a surprise to see Ivan Pace Jr have a significant role in Week 1. It was, however, a bit of a shock that he outproduced both Brian Asamoah and Jordan Hicks combined in the opener.
Pace played 68% of the snaps but still managed to tie for the team lead in solo stops, going 6-2. Hicks played virtually every snap, with three assists to show for it, while Asamoah spent the day picking splinters out of his butt on the bench. Unless the coaches make changes after the loss to Tampa Bay, Hicks should bounce back against his former team this week but it looks like Pace could become a fixture in Minnesota. Now we just need to see his playing time increase by about 15%
Minnesota seems to have adopted the three-safety, Big-Nickel as their base defense. They were in that personnel group on 84% of the plays against the Buccaneers. Josh Metellus was the third safety, joining Harrison Smith and Camryn Bynum. I have only watched one series from this game closely, but it looked like Metellus was getting most of the box safety work while Bynum and Smith worked deeper in some cover-2 looks. Week 2 will tell us a lot about the value of Smith and Metellus going forward.
Marcus Davenport was inactive with a sore ankle, so D.J. Wonnum got the start on the edge opposite Danielle Hunter.
New England Patriots
Who is the imposter and what have they done with Bill Belichick? The Patriots not only started a rookie at corner, but Christian Gonzalez played every snap at the position. This is something unheard of from a Belichick team. As is a linebacker, in this case, Ja'Whaun Bentley, playing every snap in a game. It is eye-catching and interesting, but the real test will come in Week 2 when we see if those guys continue to stay on the field all the time.
The rookie corner rule is in play with Gonzalez, who went 5-2-1 with a pass breakup in his NFL debut. He is a big physical corner who seems to relish run support opportunities and has the potential to be highly productive going forward.
Bentley has always been a productive player on a per-snap basis. The issue in the past has been inconsistent playing time from week to week. He totaled nine combined stops against the Eagles, although only three of them were of the solo variety. If he can get on the field for 80% or more of the snaps every week, Bentley can be a solid, every-week start for us.
The stock is down a little on Josh Uche. He got to the QB for a sack in Week 1 but did nothing else. Down the stretch last year, Uche had a big role, seeing action as a starter on most weeks and totaling 11 sacks over the second half of the season. He was limited to 24 plays against the Eagles. His role should be bigger this week against a Miami team that threw the ball all over the yard against the Chargers. I picked up Uche as a late-round, upside sleeper in several leagues. I'm giving him at least one more game to step up before moving on.
New Orleans Saints
Carl Granderson finished 2022 on a roll and came out hot in Week 1 at 2-2-1.5 versus the Titans. The Saints don't have the depth at defensive end that they had in years past, so their name goes on the list of teams with two edge defenders who saw over 70% of the action in Week 1. With Peyton Turner heading for surgery on his turf toe, Granderson's workload is not likely to decrease. Tanoh Kpassagnon is the primary backup to both defensive end positions with rookie second-round pick Isaiah Folskey likely to be the fourth active player at the position on game days.
New York Giants
Speculation was all over the place when it came to the Giants linebackers leading up to Week 1. What none of us saw coming was a team-leading eleven total tackles from Micah McFadden. There were a lot of things that went into McFadden's surprise production. Weather conditions and a lopsided loss among them. I'm not going to suggest that he should not be included in this week's waiver targets, but know what you are getting.
McFadden had plenty of opportunity to impress as a rookie last year, but he did not. That is not to say that the leap in comfort level between years one and two is not enough to make a major difference. There is also the point that McFadden is largely a two-down guy. He spent a quarter of the Week 1 game watching from the sideline. He will have some good games along the way but will be looking up at every-down backer Bobby Okereke more often than not.
Okereke's modest tackle total in Week 1 was saved by a forced fumble. The most important point is that he played every snap and should continue to do so.
Jason Pinnock got the start at strong safety as anticipated. After a marginal 3-2 in the Week 1 box scores, most managers will either overlook him on the waiver wire or cut him to make room for someone else. Before you do either, be aware that those light tackle numbers were enough to lead the Giants' safety position while both Pinnock and Xavier McKinney were in action on every snap.
Isaiah Simmons has not been with the team for long, so things could change, but for now, we know what his role is. The Giants kept two linebackers on the field at all times against Dallas. Simmons' contribution was to come in for McFadden on obvious passing downs. That role earned Simmons all of 15 snaps last week.
New York mustered no pass rush against the Cowboys. They had zero sacks while newcomer Carlos Basham joined Kayvon Thibodeaux and Azeez Ojulari as the meat of the edge rotation. Between them, the trio totaled two tackles and four assists against Dallas. They will have to pick it up a few notches if they hope to earn another playoff berth. This week's matchup with the Cardinals is a great opportunity to start.
New York could give us another edition of the rookie corner rule. Sixth-round pick Tre Hawkins totaled seven combined tackles as the surprise opening-game starter opposite Adoree Jackson. First-round selection Deonte Banks served as the nickel corner for much of the game.
New York Jets
We got some confirmation from the Jets on Monday night. Tony Adams is indeed the full-time strong safety. He saw 97% of the action while Adrian Amos played a few snaps in the slot at the expense of Michael Carter. Adams was solid on the field, but his numbers were nothing to get excited about at 4-1. That is not to say they won't get better going forward, especially if the defense is on the field more after the loss of Aaron Rodgers.
Quincy Williams rarely played more than 80% of the snaps last year. That was not the case against Buffalo. Williams was in the game on every defensive snap and seemed to be everywhere the ball went. He finished with ten total stops, including nine solo, and a pass breakup. If his play quality and playing time continue, Williams could be the steal of this summer's drafts.
In the lull before Week 1, The Godfather of IDP (Gary Davenport) and I put out a somewhat lighthearted, tongue-in-cheek article with bold predictions for the 2023 fantasy season. One of mine was that Jermaine Johnson would take over the starting job at defensive end in Week 1 and go on to post 55 or more combined tackles, double-digit sacks, and a top-15 rank among edge defenders. Johnson is off to a great start on that mission. He played 71% of the snaps against Buffalo, going 4-1-1 on the stat sheet. Johnson looked even better on the field and is set to be a major IDP factor.
Philadelphia Eagles
What we got from Philadelphia in Week 1 was a very un-Eagles-like performance. At least if you were expecting more of what we got from them in 2022. The pass rush sputtered with one and a half of the team's two sacks coming from their two young interior linemen. Between them, Brandon Graham, Josh Sweat, Haason Reddick, Derek Barnett, and Nolan Smith combined for three tackles, four assists, and half a sack.
Situations like this are exactly why we should not overreact to Week 1. What you need to know here is that Philadelphia joined the party when it comes to teams not using a mass rotation on the edge. Both Sweat and Reddick were on the field for nearly 75% of the snaps while Graham, Barnett, and Smith all played 26% or less. If you have Sweat or Reddick, hang in there, good things are heading your way. If you have any of the others, It's not so sunny in Philadelphia after all.
Philadelphia outlasted New England largely because they dominated the interior line. Last year's first-round pick, Jordan Davis, had the best statistical game of his young career. After doing virtually nothing in the box score as a rookie at 8-10-0, Davis opened year two with six combined tackles and half a sack, while his counterpart, Jalen Carter, tallied a sack in his first career game.
I am not at all concerned about Sweat or Reddick, who should bounce back against Minnesota this week. It will be very interesting to see if Carter and Davis can build on their strong start and prove that Week 1 was not a fluke.
It was expected entering Week 1, that Reed Blankenship would be the starting strong safety. If anyone says they expected twelve total tackles and a pair of passes defended from him, they are lying. He is not going to match that kind of production regularly and should fall back to earth a bit in Week 2, but Reed showed enough for me to believe he is the real deal and should be at least a solid starter for us going forward. If he is available in your league, make Reed a high priority on your waiver list.
The most important news concerning the Eagles is at linebacker. Nakobe Dean was looking good and well on his way to a solid statistical day when injury struck. Dean left the stadium in a walking boot and eventually landed on IR with a foot injury. Early speculation is that the injury is not season-ending but nothing is certain as of Wednesday afternoon.
The loss of Dean will have a ripple effect that could turn into a tidal wave. Zach Cunningham played 88% of the snaps versus the Patriots with Christian Ellis coming on in relief of Dean. One of these players will take on the lead role. My guess is Cunningham will be that guy, at least for now. His numbers were modest in Week 1 at 3-1 with a fumble recovery. But we know Cunningham can be a tackling machine, and he has plenty of starting experience.
Considering that the Eagles like to keep two linebackers on the field most of the time, Ellis becomes a hot waiver commodity as well. He was already seeing a few snaps in three linebacker personnel groups. The wildcard here is Rashaan Evans, who was signed to the practice squad early in the week. It was a surprise that he did not sign with someone before the season, and it should not take long for him to join the active roster. If either Cunningham or especially Ellis struggle, they could be on a short leash.
Pittsburgh Steelers
For IDP managers, there is no good news coming out of Pittsburgh this week. Cam Heyward landed on IR with a groin injury that will require surgery. It is unclear if he will be able to return late in the year, but he is going to miss much if not most of the season. With DeMarvin Leal also banged up, Pittsburgh will roll with Larry Ogunjobi and Armon Watts as their starting tackle tandem, while second-round pick Keeanu Benton looks like the top backup at all three interior line positions.
Nothing is worse than injuries, but the news is not good for the linebackers in fantasy terms, either. The 2022 Steelers were one of a few teams that had no three-down linebacker. They moved on from all of their top three players at the position after last year, bringing in Cole Holcomb, Elandon Roberts, and Kwon Alexander to replace them. From what we saw in Week 1, nothing has changed but the names on the jerseys. Alexander turned in a good statistical day, going 8-1, but he played less than 70% of the snaps. Holcomb saw the most action of the trio, working on 78%, but his production was not good. With two tackles and three assists on the stat sheet, his fantasy value was somewhat rescued by a forced fumble. Roberts also turned in respectable tackle totals at 6-1, but those numbers will be tough to repeat if he continues to see less than 45% of the playing time as he did in Week 1.
The story is no better at the strong safety position. Keanu Neal and Demontae Kazee split playing time throughout camp and preseason. We thought it was a competition and maybe it was, but if that's the case, it is ongoing. Kazee went 3-1 on 49 snaps against San Francisco while Neal finished 2-3 on 33.
Even the rookie corner rule was thrown out as a second-round pick, Joey Porter Jr had a great seat to watch the game on 60 of 67 plays. As Bill Belichick would say, we're on to Cleveland.
Seattle Seahawks
The good news is that Julian Love looked like Julian Love in Week 1, going 7-2 with a pass breakup. The bad news for those of us who want to keep starting him is that Jamal Adams may not be far from returning. Adams is expected to start practicing this week. How quickly he returns to the field depends on how his quad responds. Love should have at least another game or two before Adams is ready. While a lot of managers are nervous, I've maintained all along that Love is simply too good a player to ride the bench when Adams comes back. I think the coaches with come up with a way to get both of them on the field. That said, Love's IDP value could take a hit.
Bobby Wagner played like he never left Seattle. At 9-10-0, he had a great day at the office in terms of production. Jordyn Brooks also turned in good numbers at 4-8, but there is a * next to those numbers. Brooks looked good on the field and showed no signs of being bothered by the knee, but the coaching staff held his playing time down to 64%. We should see his snap count increase steadily as both Brooks and the coaching staff gain confidence in the knee.
San Francisco 49ers
Drake Jackson tops a lot of waiver lists this week, and rightly so, after a huge, three-sack performance against the Steelers. While I agree that he belongs on those lists, before you put him ahead of guys like Jonathan Greenard and Michael Danna, be aware that Jackson played 28 snaps in Week 1. Granted, a performance like that should get him more opportunities, but there is no guarantee that it will.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
There was some concern among the IDP community when the Buccaneers signed Ryan Neal and moved Antoine Winfield to free safety. After watching Tampa Bay stun the Vikings, I think Neal is going to be highly productive for us and that the move might be a plus for Winfield. Both players were productive. Neal passed the eyeball test with flying colors and turned in a solid 5-1, while Winfield might be even better from the new position. He did everything but intercept a pass against Minnesota, going 4-4-1 with a pass breakup, a forced fumble, and a recovery.
Tennessee Titans
It was a slow start for Azeez Al-Shaair. He finished with six total stops but only two solo against the Saints, but there is no reason to panic. Al-Shaair participated on every snap the defense faced and looked fine on the field. The numbers will come.
Meanwhile, the game script in this matchup made Jack Gibbens the better fantasy option at 6-2. This could happen another time or two this season, but in the end, Gibbens' lack of snaps as a two-down defender will catch up to him. He saw about 65% of the action in Week 1
Amani Hooker puts marks in all the columns against the Saints, going 3-2 with a pick, forced fumble, and a recovery. It was an impressive game with big point totals, but I'll be shocked if Hooker turns out to be more than a tease. He had a good game here and there last season as well, but was more often a virtual ghost on the stat sheet. Nothing has changed to make me think this year will be any different.
A lot of managers will cut Harold Landry after a dismal opening round. Don't be one of those managers, and if someone else lets him go, grab him. It is one week, and this is a guy with top-twelve ability. He is one of the league's premier pass rushers and makes a lot of tackles as well. Landry was even seeing a few snaps as an off-ball outside backer during the preseason. I have not yet had the time to watch the entire game to see if that continued into the regular season, but if it does, it's not going to be a bad thing for his numbers.
Washington Commanders
It came as a surprise when Cody Barton wore the green dot communications helmet during the preseason. By the time we got to Week 1, no one should have been surprised that he played every snap. What was a little brow-raising, though, was his modest total of four combined stops in Week 1. While I will question Barton's role as a three-down player, I will also contend that so long as he is getting the full-time snaps, his numbers will be much better on most weeks.
Unfortunately for those of us rostering Jamin Davis, Barton calling defensive plays in the huddle still means a part-time role for our guy. Davis was barely roster-worthy before Cole Holcomb was injured last year. At 4-2 on a 65% play share, it looks like Davis might be right back to that marginal status. I'm hanging onto him for one more game but another lackluster performance will open his roster spot on some of my teams.
That does it for a long-winded week-one offering. May the funny-shaped ball bounce your way in Week 2!
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