Dynasty Rankings Movement, Week 3

Photo: USA Today Sports

Week 2 saw major injury shifts and usage reveals. Shake-ups hit several backfields, and the phenomenon of Puka Nacua continued. Weekly, the Footballguys staff will share their thoughts on the dynasty ranking movement to monitor while answering a question you may face in your league.

Question: What early usage reveal has caught you most off guard?

Andy Hicks

The receiver usage by the Rams has caught me most off guard. If you had suggested the three leading targets would be Puka Nacua, Tutu Atwell, and Kyren Williams, with Van Jefferson, Tyler Higbee, and Cam Akers available, I would have suggested you wake up.

Once Cooper Kupp was known to have an injury more severe than expected, we all knew that rookie Puka Nacua would get involved. The preseason reports had been strong, but 25 receptions? That is unchartered territory to start a career. A 40% target share for a first-round rookie would be an extreme outlier, let alone a fifth-rounder. And it will continue until Kupp comes back. Tutu Atwell is a big surprise. An undersized second-rounder in 2021, he only had 18 catches in his first two years. A six-catch and seven-catch game to start the year will be an outlier, though, in his case. After being drafted in the second round in 2020, Van Jefferson has been a career disappointment. The biggest surprise has been the lack of usage for experienced target Tyler Higbee.

Jason Wood

I don't know how to answer with anyone other than Puka Nacua. We heard encouraging reports during training camp, but I took that to mean he stood a good chance of breaking camp as the 4th or 5th receiver and had a developmental future in a few years, depending on what happened with Cooper Kupp. But with Kupp going on injured reserve, we've seen a shocking competency from the Rams offense that includes monstrous debuts from both Nacua and Tutu Atwell. While Atwell is also a big-time riser, Nacua has done enough in just two NFL games to warrant a meteoric rise into the top 25 at the position. He's been targeted 35 times in two games and caught 25 receptions. He could be in line for 120+ receptions as a rookie, and that's stunning for any rookie, much less the 20th receiver drafted.

Ryan Weisse

I've been surprised by the sheer amount of passing attempts by C.J. Stroud and the Texans. Bad teams with defensive coaches typically continue to run the ball to protect their defense, even when losing. Instead, the Texans have thrown the ball 91 times in two games, third most in the NFL. This volume has made Nico Collins, Robert Woods, and recently, Tank Dell much more fantasy-relevant than we would have imagined. All three currently rank in the top 35 wide receivers, and Collins and Dell are dynasty assets if we continue to see this offensive attack.

Quarterbacks Moving Up or Down

Ryan Weisse

Jordan Love - Love was far too unknown for me to rank him highly to start the season. I had him closer to Kenny Pickett than this year's premier rookies. After two weeks, he should be well ahead of them. It's still early, but he's thrown six touchdowns in two weeks without his best receiver. The debate of playing right away versus learning the system for a few years will never go away, but Love certainly feels like the perfect fit in Green Bay after waiting for his turn.

Jason Wood

Jordan Love -- Given his age and guaranteed starting role, I felt comfortable slotting Love toward the bottom of projected starting quarterbacks but recognized his upside optionality. Although we've only seen two games, how can you not come away impressed? Love has been a pillar of productivity and efficiency despite being without several of his best teammates. He's now slotted solidly in the Top 15 and is worth targeting alongside the rookie signal callers, including Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud.

Kenny Pickett -- Shame on me. I let the unbridled positivity from Pittsburgh's beat writers this summer impact my analytical skepticism born out of his disappointing rookie season. While the book certainly isn't written, I've shifted Pickett back toward the bottom of the current NFL starters. In two games, he, and the offense as a whole, looks as concerning as it did in 2022. There's still hope for Pickett, mainly if the team replaces offensive coordinator Matt Canada. But until we see changes made, I'm pulling the plug on the hype.

Dan Hindery

Justin Fields - drops to QB17. There is plenty of upside if he can improve enough as a passer to hang onto the starting job because his rushing ability leads to starter-worthy fantasy numbers. However, his hold on a starting job feels more precarious by the week. If Fields does improve immensely over the next few months, he is going to be out of a starting job because what he has put on tape through two weeks is not good enough.

Deshaun Watson - drops to QB16. In some ways, the two-game sample size to start the season has an outsized impact because it provides further context to what we saw from him after taking over in 2022. We now have about a half-season sample size worth of games in which Watson has looked like he is not a Top 20 NFL quarterback. Guaranteed money forces the Browns to stick with him for two or three more years, so there is still time for him to turn it around.

Andy Hicks

Anthony Richardson - I had Richardson placed very conservatively in redraft but ranked higher in dynasty. He seemed to need development. The Colts thought otherwise, and he started the season with great promise. Unfortunately, he has finished neither game, and Gardner Minshew played well in relief. Part of development is mitigating risk versus reward and while Richardson moves up my rankings, it's with a giant asterisk until he can finish games.

C.J. Stroud - Stroud has looked assured in his first two starts, and although expected to struggle, he has done anything but. There isn't enough talent on the Houston roster to take him to the next level yet, but he is building an excellent foundation for a promising career. The next few weeks will be crucial as opposing defenses probe for weaknesses. He couldn't do anything more than he has to date and moves away from career journeymen and average quarterbacks in rankings.

Sam Howell - Howell seemed a placeholder for new ownership while they waited to make their own choices at coach and quarterback. Ron Rivera and Howell didn't get that memo. A surprising 2-0 start to the season and Howell playing above expectations will be put to the test against the Bills and Eagles over the next two weeks, but for now, Howell deserves a bump in rankings.

Chad Parsons

Jordan Love - I was on the bullish side for Love and his seasoning for three years in the shadow of Aaron Rodgers. QB5 through two games is beyond encouraging for his long-term prospects, plus the optics of his smooth navigation of the pocket, arm talent, and producing despite Aaron Jones missing Week 2 and Christian Watson yet to play this season.

Will Grant

Jordan Love - Yes, he's only played two games against some of the weaker teams in the NFC, but Jordan Love is putting up excellent fantasy numbers, and he's making fantasy owners who bet on him extremely happy. Just south of 400 yards passing, Love has three touchdown passes in his first two games, without his #1 receiver Christian Watson. Once Watson returns, Love will have even more options, which bodes well for a continued stock rise. Love still feels like more of a game manager than a guy who is going to command and control every aspect of the offense, but it's still early, and he is doing all the right things.

Justin Fields - On the flip side, the expectation bubble for Justin Fields has officially burst. With all the off-season moves and bringing in legitimate weapons for Fields to use, expectations were high that the Bears would contend for the division, and Fields and his rushing yards would make him an excellent fantasy quarterback. After two weeks, Fields is a backup at best, and this week, he posted just three rushing yards and a score. The offense needs a rhythm and seems content with short passes and check-downs. Cole Kemet leads the team with nine receptions, and DJ Moore has only eight catches with 16.1 yards per catch. Their offensive line struggles to maintain protection, and the penalties that they have had put them in unfavorable down and distance numbers on a lot of their drives. Until Fields can show more consistency, he belongs on your fantasy bench.

Craig Lakins

Jordan Love - I had a sneaking suspicion that Love wouldn't be the hot mess some expected, but I'd be lying if I told you he'd have a 6-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio through two weeks. It's very early in his tenure as the full-time starter, but I've been very impressed so far. His completion percentage is a shaky 55.8%, but you must remember that he's working with a receiving core made up almost entirely of first- and second-year players. He doesn't profile as a classic mobile quarterback, but thus far, he's been efficient and selective on when he takes off. He's averaging seven yards per carry on five attempts.