Favorite Fantasy Game Environments
- Seattle Seahawks at Cincinnati Bengals - Over/Under 45.5
- Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears - Over/Under 44.5
- Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars - Over/Under 46.5
Favorite Additional Fantasy Spots
- Dolphins at home vs. Panthers - Implied Team Total 31
- Rams at home vs. Cardinals - Implied Team Total 27.8
- Lions on road vs. Buccaneers - Implied Team Total 23.3
- 49ers on road vs. Browns - Implied Team Total 22
- Eagles on road vs. Jets - Implied Team Total 24
CASH GAMES
Quarterbacks
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tua Tagovailoa | vs. Panthers | $7,600 |
| 2 | Brock Purdy | at Browns | $5,600 |
| 3 | Trevor Lawrence | vs. Colts | $6,500 |
Tua Tagovailoa leads a Dolphins offense that ranks first in both Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play) and Dropback EPA. He ranks first in passing yards per game (322.8) and second in pass touchdowns per game (2.2). He's at home as a 13.5-point favorite against the 0-5 Panthers.
Brock Purdy is simply a good quarterback. He ranks ninth in passing yards per game (254.2) and seventh in pass touchdowns per game (1.8) and leads a 49ers offense that ranks second in both EPA/Play and Dropback EPA. Purdy will have the ball plenty in this one as the Browns are starting P.J. Walker at quarterback. What's really appealing is Purdy's affordable $5,600 price tag.
Trevor Lawrence gets to play at home against a Colts defense that has been bleeding passing production to opposing WR1s. Back in Week 1, Lawrence threw for 241 yards and 2 touchdowns and Calvin Ridley put up 101 yards and 1 touchdown.
Running Backs
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | David Montgomery | at Buccaneers | $7,300 |
| 2 | Chuba Hubbard | at Dolphins | $4,300 |
| 3 | Christian McCaffrey | at Browns | $9,500 |
| 4 | Alvin Kamara | at Texans | $6,800 |
| 5 | Travis Etienne Jr. | vs. Colts | $7,100 |
| 6 | Breece Hall | vs. Eagles | $6,000 |
| 7 | Rhamondre Stevenson | at Raiders | $5,400 |
The Lions are 3-point road favorites and David Montgomery ranks fourth in opportunities per game (24.3), 13th in total yards per game (104.5), and fourth in total touchdowns (6). Jahmyr Gibbs is out once again due to injury.
With Miles Sanders out, Chuba Hubbard is going to handle a heavy workload on Sunday. Hubbard is priced at just $4,300 and has a favorable matchup against a Dolphins defense that ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 28th in Rush EPA Allowed.
The 49ers are 8.5-point road favorites with the Browns starting P.J. Walker on Sunday. Christian McCaffrey ranks third in opportunities per game (24.6), second in total yards per game (135.6), and first in total touchdowns (8).
Alvin Kamara leads the league in opportunities per game (25) and has a favorable matchup against a Texans defense that ranks 18th in EPA/Play Allowed and 20th in Rush EPA Allowed.
Travis Etienne has been awesome. He ranks fifth in opportunities per game (23.2) and 11th in total yards per game (108). The Jaguars are at home and are 4.5-point favorites.
Jalen Carter has an ankle sprain that projects to keep him out this week. That makes Breece Hall's matchup more favorable and he was just unleashed last week. Hall was given 25 total opportunities and turned them into 194 total yards and 1 touchdown. He plays at home and is priced at just $6,000.
The Patriots offense is broken but Rhamondre Stevenson does have a great matchup against a Raiders defense that ranks 28th in EPA/Play Allowed and 29th in Rush EPA Allowed. He ranks 18th in opportunities per game (17.2) and is worth a mention since he's priced at just $5,400.
Wide Receivers
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adam Thielen | at Dolphins | $5,900 |
| 2 | Jordan Addison | at Bears | $5,700 |
| 3 | DJ Moore | vs. Vikings | $6,500 |
| 4 | K.J. Osborn | at Bears | $4,400 |
| 5 | Michael Thomas | at Texans | $4,900 |
| 6 | Brandon Aiyuk | at Browns | $6,200 |
| 7 | Deebo Samuel | at Browns | $6,100 |
The Panthers at Dolphins game has the second highest Over/Under (47.5) on the main slate and the Panthers will be playing from behind. Adam Thielen ranks 11th in targets per game (9.2), seventh in catches per game (7.6), and 16th in receiving yards per game (78.8). And he has a favorable matchup against a Dolphins defense that ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 20th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
It's Jordan Addison time without Justin Jefferson. He's Minnesota's new #1 wide receiver and gets a great matchup against a Bears defense that ranks 30th in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed. And K.J. Osborn is $1,300 cheaper but right there with Addison in terms of playing time and routes run.
DJ Moore is on a ridiculous run right now. He's put up 100+ yards and/or scored a touchdown in four straight games and has these ridiculous totals over his past two contests: 16 receptions on 19 targets for 361 yards and 4 touchdowns. He's at home in a great matchup against a Vikings defense that ranks just 20th in EPA/Play Allowed and 26th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Michael Thomas has seen just four fewer targets (39) than Chris Olave and leads the Saints in receptions (26) this season. He's priced at just $4,900 against a Texans defense that ranks 18th in EPA/Play Allowed and 16th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
The 49ers are 8.5-point road favorites with the Browns starting P.J. Walker on Sunday. Brock Purdy and company will have the ball plenty in this one and their offense ranks second in both EPA/Play and Dropback EPA. Both Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel are solid cash plays.
Tight Ends
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dallas Goedert | at Jets | $4,800 |
| 2 | Kyle Pitts | vs. Commanders | $3,500 |
| 3 | Zach Ertz | at Rams | $3,600 |
| 4 | Logan Thomas | at Falcons | $3,500 |
Dallas Goedert is too talented and in too successful of an offense to remain quiet and that's exactly what we saw last week. Goedert caught 8 of 9 targets for 117 yards and 1 touchdown and despite that, is still priced at just $4,800 against a Jets defense that only ranks 19th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Kyle Pitts leads the Falcons in targets (32) and is at home in a favorable matchup against a poor Commanders defense that ranks 27th in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed. Here are the stat lines allowed to WR1s over the past three weeks: Stefon Diggs 8-111, A.J. Brown 9-175-2, and D.J. Moore 8-230-3. One could argue Pitts is Atlanta's WR1.
Zach Ertz ranks fourth in targets (34) at the tight-end position and is priced at just $3,600 in a game the Cardinals project to have to throw while playing from behind.
Logan Thomas caught 9 of 11 targets for 77 yards and 1 touchdown last week and is priced at just $3,500.
Team Defenses
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Francisco 49ers | at Browns | $4,000 |
| 2 | Houston Texans | vs. Saints | $2,900 |
The 49ers defense ranks sixth best in EPA/Play Allowed and will take on the Browns offense with P.J. Walker under center. The Browns have the lowest Implied Team Total (14.5) on the week.
The Texans D/ST is affordable at just $2,900 and they get to play at home against an average Saints offense.
GPPs
Quarterbacks
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matthew Stafford | vs. Cardinals | $6,100 |
| 2 | Justin Fields | vs. Vikings | $7,300 |
| 3 | Bryce Young | at Dolphins | $5,100 |
| 4 | Joe Burrow | vs. Seahawks | $6,300 |
Matthew Stafford is a fantastic tournament play. He ranks fourth in passing yards per game (290.2) but just 20th in pass touchdowns per game (1). He's due for positive pass-touchdown regression, especially with a healthy Cooper Kupp back in the lineup. And the matchup here is incredible at home against a Cardinals defense that ranks just 23rd in EPA/Play Allowed and 21st in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Justin Fields incredibly ranks second in pass touchdowns per game (2.2) and, of course, has elite rushing upside. That's a deadly combination for fantasy football and the matchup looks spicy this week at home against a Vikings defense that ranks just 20th in EPA/Play Allowed and 26th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
The Panthers at Dolphins game has the second highest Over/Under (47.5) on the main slate and Tua Tagovailoa is the obvious quarterback play here. Thus, we pivot to the $5,100 priced Bryce Young. Young will be low-owned and has a favorable matchup against a Dolphins defense that ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 20th in Dropback EPA Allowed. Young will have a favorable passing game script all game long and is coming off his best game as a pro, throwing for 247 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Joe Burrow says he's healthier and he looked the part last week, throwing for 317 yards and 3 touchdowns. He now plays at home in a super competitive game against a Seahawks defense that only ranks 17th in EPA/Play Allowed and 22nd in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Running Backs
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bijan Robinson | vs. Commanders | $7,200 |
| 2 | D'Onta Foreman | vs. Vikings | $4,400 |
| 3 | Raheem Mostert | vs. Panthers | $6,400 |
| 4 | Ken Walker III | at Bengals | $6,700 |
| 5 | Kyren Williams | vs. Cardinals | $6,500 |
| 6 | Josh Jacobs | vs. Patriots | $7,000 |
This is the spot for Bijan Robinson to go crazy. The Falcons are 2.5-point home favorites against a Commanders defense that ranks just 27th in EPA/Play Allowed and 23rd in Rush EPA Allowed. Robinson ranks 17th in opportunities per game (18.2) and 15th in total yards per game (102). Robinson scores his first rush touchdown on Sunday. Book it.
With Khalil Herbert, Roschon Johnson, and Travis Homer all out on Sunday, D'Onta Foreman is looking at a large workload. That's exciting. Foreman was really good last season in Carolina as he ranked sixth in NextGenStats Rush Yards Over Expected per Attempt and second in Success Rate. He's at home, priced at just $4,400, and gets a Vikings defense that ranks 20th in EPA/Play Allowed.
DeVon Achane is out and Jeff Wilson is doubtful, meaning he'll likely wait another week before making his 2023 debut. Raheem Mostert is in a fantastic spot here at home against a Panthers defense that ranks 22nd in EPA/Play Allowed and dead last in Rush EPA Allowed. The Dolphins are 13.5-point favorites.
Ken Walker III ranks 16th in opportunities per game (18.5) and gets a Bengals defense that ranks 31st in Rush EPA Allowed. He's a fun run-back option on Bengals passing game teams.
Kyren Williams ranks ninth in opportunities per game (20.2) and gets to play at home against a Cardinals defense that ranks 23rd in EPA/Play Allowed and 21st in Rush EPA Allowed. The Rams have the fourth-highest Implied Team Total (27.8) on the week and are 7-point favorites.
The Raiders are 2.5-point home favorites against the mess that is the current state of the New England Patriots. Josh Jacobs ranks sixth in opportunities per game (22.4) and could go bonkers here if the Raiders are able to control the game.
Wide Receivers
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cooper Kupp | vs. Cardinals | $9,000 |
| 2 | Calvin Ridley | vs. Colts | $6,700 |
| 3 | Tyreek Hill | vs. Panthers | $9,300 |
| 4 | Jaylen Waddle | vs. Panthers | $7,600 |
| 5 | Ja'Marr Chase | vs. Seahawks | $8,300 |
| 6 | DK Metcalf | at Bengals | $6,800 |
| 7 | Tyler Lockett | at Bengals | $5,700 |
| 8 | Christian Kirk | vs. Colts | $5,400 |
| 9 | Drake London | vs. Commanders | $4,800 |
| 10 | D.J. Chark Jr | at Dolphins | $4,000 |
Cooper Kupp is all the way back. He caught 8 of 12 targets for 118 yards in his return last week. And the matchup here is incredible at home against a Cardinals defense that ranks just 23rd in EPA/Play Allowed and 21st in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Calvin Ridley put up 101 yards and 1 touchdown on the Colts in Week 1 and Indianapolis' defense has been bleeding production to opposing #1 wide receivers since. Ridley is in a great spot here to put up a ceiling game, especially with Zay Jones out of the lineup due to injury. But the absence of Jones also helps Christian Kirk. Kirk leads the Jaguars in targets (43), receptions (30), and receiving yards (335).
The Dolphins are at home and 13.5-point favorites against the 0-5 Panthers. Miami's offense ranks first in both Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play) and Dropback EPA. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle both have massive ceiling game potential here.
This Bengals at Seahawks game has shootout potential written all over it and Ja'Marr Chase, on the heels of a 15-192-3 performance, gets to play at home against a Seahawks defense that only ranks 17th in EPA/Play Allowed and 22nd in Dropback EPA Allowed. And on the other side, this is the kind of competitive game environment that can push the Seahawks passing game, which pushes us closer to the ceiling of both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. And Cincinnati's defense has been surprisingly average this season, ranking just 16th in EPA/Play Allowed.
Drake London is intriguing here priced at just $4,800. He's at home in a favorable matchup against a poor Commanders defense that ranks 27th in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed. And here are the stat lines allowed to WR1s over the past three weeks: Stefon Diggs 8-111, A.J. Brown 9-175-2, and D.J. Moore 8-230-3.
The Panthers at Dolphins game has the second highest Over/Under (47.5) on the main slate. With all the focus on the Dolphins passing game as well as Adam Thielen, we pivot to D.J. Chark Jr in a favorable matchup against a Dolphins defense that ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 20th in Dropback EPA Allowed. Bryce Young and the Panthers passing game will have a favorable passing game script all game long and Chark played on 99% of the offensive snaps last week.
Tight Ends
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | T.J. Hockenson | at Bears | $6,600 |
| 2 | Hayden Hurst | at Dolphins | $3,100 |
| 3 | Evan Engram | vs. Colts | $4,500 |
| 4 | Hunter Henry | at Raiders | $4,400 |
Without Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson offers a lot of upside in this matchup against a Bears defense that ranks 30th in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed.
Hayden Hurst is priced at just $3,100 and will be needed as the Panthers project to be playing from behind all day against a very good Dolphins team. The matchup is there as Miami's defense only ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 20th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
The absence of Zay Jones could funnel more targets Evan Engram's way and Engram already has seen the third most targets (35) at the tight end position on the season. This could be a boom week at home in a favorable matchup.
JuJu Smith-Schuster and Demario Douglas will both miss this game, which should equate to more volume for Hunter Henry. Henry has a great matchup on deck against a Raiders defense that ranks 28th in EPA/Play Allowed and 23rd in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Team Defenses
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Detroit Lions | at Buccaneers | $2,700 |
| 2 | Atlanta Falcons | vs. Commanders | $3,600 |
The Lions defense ranks fourth best in EPA/Play Allowed and will get after Baker Mayfield, who has been known to throw an interception or two.
Sam Howell leads the NFL in sacks taken (29). The Falcons are 2.5-point home favorites and will be able to generate pressure, which is exactly what we want in a tournament D/ST.
Key Injuries and Suspensions
- Justin Jefferson OUT - Upgrade Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson, and K.J. Osborn
- DeVon Achane OUT and Jeff Wilson Doubtful - Upgrade Raheem Mostert
- Jahmyr Gibbs OUT - Upgrade David Montgomery
- Miles Sanders OUT - Upgrade Chuba Hubbard
- Khalil Herbert, Roschon Johnson, and Travis Homer all OUT - Upgrade D'Onta Foreman
- James Conner OUT - Upgrade Emari Demercado
- Zay Jones OUT - Upgrade Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, and Evan Engram
- Deshaun Watson OUT - Upgrade 49ers D/ST
- JuJu Smith-Schuster and Demario Douglas both OUT - Upgrade DeVante Parker, Kendrick Bourne, and Hunter Henry
- Tee Higgins Questionable
- Marquise Brown Questionable
- Tank Dell Questionable
- David Njoku Questionable
Favorite Tournament Stacks and Game Correlation Plays
- Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp
- Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase Runback options: Ken Walker III, DK Metcalf, and/or Tyler Lockett
- Trevor Lawrence and Calvin Ridley