Cracking DraftKings Week 4

Ben Cummins's Cracking DraftKings Week 4 Ben Cummins Published 09/29/2023

Favorite Fantasy Game Environment

  • Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills - Over/Under 53.5
  • Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers - Over/Under 47.5
  • Los Angeles Rams at Indianapolis Colts - Over/Under 45.5
  • Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers - Over/Under 45.5

Favorite Additional Fantasy Spots

  • Broncos on the road vs. Bears - Implied Team Total 24.8
  • 49ers at home vs. Cardinals - Implied Team Total 28.8
  • Eagles at home vs. Commanders - Implied Team Total 26.5
  • Bengals on the road against Titans - Implied Team Total 21.5

CASH GAMES

Quarterbacks

Rank Play Opponent Salary
1 Jalen Hurts vs. Commanders $8,000
2 Brock Purdy vs. Cardinals $5,900
3 Kirk Cousins at Panthers $7,100
4 Matthew Stafford at Colts $5,700

The Brotherly Shove just provides Jalen Hurts with such an advantage in fantasy football. He's already scored three rushing touchdowns and gets to play at home against a Commanders team that just got completely blasted by the Bills last Sunday. And the matchup is decent against a Commanders defense that ranks 18th in Dropback EPA (Expected Points Added) Allowed.

Brock Purdy is simply a good quarterback. He leads a 49ers offense that ranks second in both EPA/Play and Dropback EPA. And although the Cardinals' defense has been more impressive than expected to begin the season, the 49ers still have the highest Implied Team Total (29.3) of the entire week. He's a very strong cash play priced at just $5,900.

Kirk Cousins has been slinging it to begin the season. He leads all quarterbacks in Draftkings fantasy points per game (28.2), passing yards (1,075), and pass touchdowns (9). That should continue with a good matchup on tap against a Panthers defense that only ranks 22nd in EPA/Play Allowed, 15th in Dropback EPA Allowed, and 23rd in Success Rate.

It's pretty wild to see Matthew Stafford priced at just $5,700 with how good he's looked to begin the season. Stafford ranks fourth in passing yards (910) and is due for positive touchdown regression as he's only thrown two pass touchdowns so far. The Colts have defended the pass well to begin the season but don't have the personnel to sustain their success. And Stafford gets to play in the dome in Indianapolis here.

Running Backs

Rank Play Opponent Salary
1 Zack Moss vs. Rams $6,700
2 Raheem Mostert at Bills $6,500
3 Christian McCaffrey vs. Cardinals $9,200
4 De'Von Achane at Bills $5,700
5 Kyren Williams at Colts $6,000
6 Miles Sanders vs. Vikings $5,800

Zack Moss' role is incredible right now. He ranks first in opportunities per game (27.5) yet is priced at just $6,700. He has an awesome matchup on tap at home against a Rams defense that ranks 25th in EPA/Play Allowed and dead last in Rush EPA Allowed.

Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane both brought flamethrowers to the Denver Broncos defense last week. Mostert totaled 142 yards and 4 touchdowns and Achane totaled 233 yards and 4 touchdowns. Both are very clearly good plays in the best fantasy game of the week against a Bills defense that only ranks 21st in Rush EPA Allowed.

Already a subscriber?

Continue reading this content with a HALL OF FAME subscription.

Christian McCaffrey is the best running back in the NFL and ranks third in opportunities per game (24.3). The 49ers are 14-point home favorites and the Cardinals defense only ranks 19th in Rush EPA Allowed.

Kyren Williams' role is just absolutely incredible right now. He has played on 95% and 100% of the offensive snaps over the past two weeks and ranks 12th in opportunities per game (19.3). The matchup isn't phenomenal but the guaranteed volume Williams brings in cash priced at just $6,000 can't be ignored.

*Miles Sanders is questionable so his status must be monitored on Sunday morning.* He ranks seventh in the NFL in opportunities per game (20.3) and ranks tied for first at the position in targets (18). He's priced at just $5,800 at home in one of the best fantasy games of the week. The matchup is a decent one against a Vikings defense that ranks 23rd in EPA/Play Allowed.

Wide Receivers

Rank Play Opponent Salary
1 Keenan Allen vs. Raiders $7,900
2 Tank Dell vs. Steelers $4,600
3 Adam Thielen at Panthers $4,500
4 Puka Nacua at Colts $6,700
5 Tutu Atwell at Colts $5,500
6 Courtland Sutton at Bears $5,300
7 Joshua Palmer vs. Raiders $4,000

Keenan Allen is simply dominating right now. He ranks second in targets per game (13) and third in receiving yards per game (134). And his volume outlook looks stronger now with Mike Williams out for the season. Plus, Austin Ekeler is doubtful and reportedly won't play yet again. Allen is an elite play at home against a bad Raiders defense that ranks 28th in EPA/Play Allowed, 27th in Dropback EPA Allowed, and 29th in Success Rate.

Tank Dell's past two games: Week 2: 7 catches on 10 targets for 72 yards and 1 touchdown and Week 3: 5 catches on 7 targets for 145 yards and 1 touchdown. Dell is a talented rookie paired with C.J. Stroud who has been incredible through three weeks. He's priced at just $4,600 and he's at home against a Steelers defense that can be had.

Adam Thielen's past two games: Week 2: 7 catches on 9 targets for 54 yards and 1 touchdown and Week 3: 11 catches on 14 targets for 145 yards and 1 touchdown. Thielen is shockingly priced at just $4,500 in his revenge game against the Vikings and their bad defense that ranks 22nd in EPA/Play Allowed and 24th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Puka Nacua leads the NFL in targets per game (14) and ranks fourth in receiving yards per game (112.7). Nacua has been awesome but so has his quarterback. Matthew Stafford ranks fourth in passing yards (910). They both project well in the dome in Indianapolis in this one as does Tutu Atwell. Atwell has played just five fewer snaps than Nacua on the season and outproduced him last week.

Sean Payton has helped improve Denver's offense. The Broncos offense ranks seventh in both EPA/Play and Dropback EPA. This helps Courtland Sutton who has seen 18 targets over the past two weeks and is coming off of a game where he caught 8 of 11 targets for 91 yards and 1 touchdown. Sutton has the best matchup imaginable on tap against a horrendous Bears defense that ranks dead last in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed.

Joshua Palmer has played 129 snaps compared to Quentin Johnston's 48 snaps so far this season. The Chargers are slow playing Johnston and that makes Palmer an awesome cash game play priced at just $4,000 in a great matchup at home against a bad Raiders defense that ranks 28th in EPA/Play Allowed, 27th in Dropback EPA Allowed, and 29th in Success Rate.

Tight Ends

Rank Play Opponent Salary
1 T.J. Hockenson at Panthers $6,500
2 Mark Andrews at Browns $5,400
3 Hunter Henry at Cowboys $4,300

T.J. Hockenson leads the tight end position in targets (28) and has seen six more than anyone else. He's a solid cash play against a Panthers defense that only ranks 22nd in EPA/Play Allowed, 15th in Dropback EPA Allowed, and 23rd in Success Rate.

Mark Andrews should see as many targets as he can handle with both Rashod Bateman and Odell Beckham Jr out this week due to injury. The matchup is tough but Andrews is a great player.

Hunter Henry ranks sixth at the tight end position in targets (18) and seventh in receiving yards (125). He's a solid, more affordable cash play that saves some salary for the other positions.

Team Defenses

Rank Play Opponent Salary
1 Cleveland Browns vs. Ravens $2,800
2 New Orleans Saints vs. Buccaneers $3,600

The Browns' defense has been extremely impressive to begin the season. They rank first in EPA/Play Allowed, first in Success Rate, and first in Dropback EPA Allowed. They're a strong D/ST in all formats priced at just $2,800.

Baker Mayfield faced his first real test last week against the Eagles' defense after favorable matchups in Weeks 1 and 2. The result: 146 passing yards, 1 pass touchdown, 1 interception, and 2 sacks taken. The Saints are another strong defensive unit and get to attack Mayfield while playing at home.

GPPs

Quarterbacks

Rank Play Opponent Salary
1 Russell Wilson at Bears $5,800
2 Justin Herbert vs. Raiders $7,800
3 Josh Allen vs. Dolphins $8,200
4 Photos provided by Imagn Images

More by Ben Cummins

 

Cracking DraftKings: Conference Championships

Ben Cummins

A weekly overview of DraftKings' cash and GPP contests.

01/23/25 Read More
 

Cracking DraftKings: Divisional Round

Ben Cummins

A weekly overview of DraftKings' cash and GPP contests.

01/17/25 Read More
 

Cracking DraftKings Wild Card Weekend

Ben Cummins

A weekly overview of DraftKings cash and GPP contests.

01/10/25 Read More
 

Cracking DraftKings: Week 18

Ben Cummins

A weekly overview of DraftKings cash and GPP contests.

01/04/25 Read More
 

Cracking DraftKings: Week 17

Ben Cummins

A weekly overview of DraftKings cash and GPP contests.

12/28/24 Read More
 

DraftKings Monday Showdown: Week 16

Ben Cummins

Monday Showdown Analysis: Saints versus Packers

12/23/24 Read More