Cracking DraftKings Wild Card Weekend

Ben Cummins's Cracking DraftKings Wild Card Weekend Ben Cummins Published 01/11/2024

Wild Card Weekend Games

  • Saturday Slate:
  • Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans - Over/Under 44.5 - Spread Browns -2.5
  • Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs - Over/Under 44 - Spread Chiefs -3.5
  • Sunday Slate:
  • Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills - Over/Under 35.5 - Spread Bills -10
  • Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys - Over/Under 50.5 - Spread Cowboys -7.5
  • Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions - Over/Under 51.5 - Spread Lions -3.5
  • Monday Slate:
  • Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Over/Under 44 - Spread Eagles -2.5

Browns at Texans

  • Browns:
    • Offensive Rankings in Joe Flacco starts
      • EPA/Play: 16th
      • Dropback EPA: 19th
      • Rush EPA: 18th
      • Points per game: 28.6 (Would rank 3rd over full season)
      • Yards per game: 387.8 (Would rank 4th over full season)
    • Defensive Rankings
      • EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 1st
      • Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 1st
      • Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 22nd
      • Points per game allowed: 21.3 (19th most)
      • Yards per game allowed: 270.2 (32nd most)
    • Point Differential Ranking: +34 (9th)
  • Texans:
    • Offensive Rankings
      • EPA/Play: 15th
      • Dropback EPA: 15th
      • Rush EPA: 23rd
      • Points per game: 22.2 (13th)
      • Yards per game: 342.4 (12th)
    • Defensive Rankings
      • EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 15th
      • Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 23rd
      • Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 5th
      • Points per game allowed: 20.8 (22nd most)
      • Yards per game allowed: 330.7 (19th most)
    • Point Differential Ranking: +24 (12th)

Browns

NFL Playoffs are by far my favorite time to play DFS because we can dive deep into the matchups and the identities of each team. And having conviction not only on specific plays but on how entire games will play out is an absolute requirement. The first game of the weekend is a tough one in terms of having conviction on who is going to win. The Texans are at home but the Browns have one of the best, if not the best, defenses in the NFL. Despite the brilliance of rookie C.J. Stroud, the lean here is Cleveland moving on to the Divisional Round partly because of their defense and their surging offense with Joe Flacco ($6,100) at the helm. The most shocking statistic above is the Browns' offensive rankings in points per game and yards per game under Flacco. Even more mind-boggling, Flacco ranks first in the NFL in both passing yards per game (323.2) and pass touchdowns per game (2.6) this season. Despite this, Flacco is the 10th-most expensive quarterback on the entire Saturday-Monday slate. He's a strong quarterback option with a relatively favorable matchup on tap.

Correlating with Flacco are Amari Cooper ($6,800) and David Njoku ($5,600). Both have had spike weeks with Flacco. Throughout the entire season, Cooper ranks 15th in targets per game (8.5) and Njoku ranks 25th in targets per game (7.7). That's a super impressive number for Njoku considering he's a tight end. In fact, at the tight end position, Njoku finished the regular season ranked third in targets (120), fifth in receptions (81), and sixth in receiving yards (882). Both are in play as one-offs or on Flacco stacks but Njoku is the preference in a good matchup against a Texans defense that allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game (11.5) to the tight end position this season.

The Texans defense is strong against the run and Jerome Ford ($5,500) and Kareem Hunt ($4,700) are in somewhat of a timeshare. Neither are priority plays.

Texans

C.J. Stroud ($6,800) has been a rookie revelation. He ranks fourth in passing yards per game (274.6) and 13th in pass touchdowns per game (1.5). There is some tournament appeal here as Stroud is the home quarterback in a game with a 44.5-point total that has more of a shot to shootout than the field realizes. Plus, Browns safety Grant Delpit is out and cornerback Denzel Ward is questionable. Nico Collins ($7,000) pairs nicely with Stroud and is in play either way as the clear-cut WR1 with Tank Dell long gone and out for the year. A big play machine, Collins ranked 13th in receiving yards per game (78.7) in weeks 1-17 and then dropped a whopping 9-195-1 line on the Colts in Week 18. Noah Brown ($5,100), if he plays, makes sense as a large-field tournament punt play option as he's shown the ability to post spike weeks this season paired with Stroud. And although it's not a favorable matchup for him, Dalton Schultz ($4,400) is in play as a tournament-tight end who could find the end zone.

A shocking and important development occurred in Week 18 when Houston was fighting for their playoff lives. Dameon Pierce ($4,500) did not see the field at all. Instead, Devin Singletary ($5,700) played on 88% of the offensive snaps and handled 25 opportunities and touches. Singletary is a strong tournament leverage play, especially in Saturday-only contests. Many will want to avoid Cleveland's defense but their unit has struggled against the run as of late.

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Dolphins at Chiefs

  • Dolphins:
    • Offensive Rankings
      • EPA/Play: 3rd
      • Dropback EPA: 3rd
      • Rush EPA: 22nd
      • Points per game: 29.2 (2nd)
      • Yards per game: 401.3 (1st)
    • Defensive Rankings
      • EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 2nd
      • Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 5th
      • Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 3rd
      • Points per game allowed: 23 (11th most)
      • Yards per game allowed: 318.3 (23rd most)
    • Point Differential Ranking: +105 (5th)
  • Chiefs:
    • Offensive Rankings
      • EPA/Play: 11th
      • Dropback EPA: 11th
      • Rush EPA: 16th
      • Points per game: 21.8 (15th)
      • Yards per game: 351.3 (9th)
    • Defensive Rankings
      • EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 19th
      • Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 15th
      • Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 28th
      • Points per game allowed: 17.3 (31st most)
      • Yards per game allowed: 289.8 (31st most)
    • Point Differential Ranking: +77 (6th)

The weather forecast is calling for extremely cold temperatures in Kansas City on Saturday night. That absolutely must be factored in, especially for the road team that plays its home games in Miami.

Chiefs

The Dolphins' defense has been extremely impressive as of late but unfortunately, they've been destroyed by injuries. Xavien Howard, Andrew Van Ginkel, Jerome Baker, Jaelan Phillips, and Bradley Chubb are all out. This should be played as a Chiefs home win. Patrick Mahomes II ($7,100) had a down year by his standards but still ranked ninth in both passing yards per game (261.4) and pass touchdowns per game (1.7). Kansas City's offense ranked third in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE) and second in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF), which tells us Mahomes should find success in a Chiefs' victory game script. That puts both Travis Kelce ($6,100) and Rashee Rice ($6,600) on the map in a big way. Unlike Kelce, Rice has young legs and has improved as the season has gone on. He jumps out as underpriced by DraftKings. Here are Rice's target totals over his past six games: 10, 9, 10, 9, 12, 6. Rice should no longer be viewed as a "rookie" wide receiver. Instead, he should be viewed as Mahomes' clear-cut alpha WR1 and a go-to player in the offense.

Justin Watson ($3,400) and Richie James ($3,300) are viable Saturday-only large field tournament punt plays. We're avoiding Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($3,000) and Kadarius Toney ($3,200) at all costs. And while a fun idea, Justyn Ross ($3,000) is too thin of a play.

The absence of Jerick McKinnon is a pretty big storyline. Isiah Pacheco's ($6,400) three largest offensive snap shares of the year (78%, 70%, and 93%) all came in the second half of the season with McKinnon out of the lineup. Pacheco ranks 11th in the NFL in opportunities per game (18.1) and has some dual-threat appeal thanks to the lack of secondary and tertiary pass-catching weapons on the Chiefs. Pacheco's targets in his past four games: 5, 4, 4, and 7. We're playing this as a Chiefs' victory and they're 3.5-point home favorites.

Dolphins

Tua Tagovailoa ($7,000) has had a phenomenal season so far. He leads a Dolphins offense that ranks third in both EPA/Play and Dropback EPA, fourth in PROE, and ninth in EDPF, and he ranks third in passing yards per game (278.2) and sixth in pass touchdowns per game (1.8). The weather is a concern, but the matchup doesn't scare us away against a Chiefs defense that has been average as of late.

Tyreek Hill ($8,700) is obviously in play. He ranks second in targets per game (10.5), third in receptions per game (7.5), and first in receiving yards per game (114.5).

Jaylen Waddle ($6,500) and Raheem Mostert ($6,700) are both listed as questionable but expected to play. Both should be expected to operate at less than 100%. Mostert is a fade. Waddle makes sense in large field tournaments, especially as a pivot off of Hill.

De'Von Achane ($6,800) is much younger and should be expected to have fresher legs than Mostert on Saturday night. Achane ranks tenth in the entire league in total yards per game (93.6), offers explosive big play upside on every touch, and projects to be utilized a bit more in the ground game in the extreme cold weather.

Steelers at Bills

  • Steelers:
    • Offensive Rankings
      • EPA/Play: 23rd
      • Dropback EPA: 25th
      • Rush EPA: 9th
      • Points per game: 17.9 (27th)
      • Yards per game: 304.3 (25th)
    • Defensive Rankings
      • EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 14th
      • Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 16th
      • Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 11th
      • Points per game allowed: 19.1 (26th most)
      • Yards per game allowed: 342.1 (12th most)
    • Point Differential Ranking: -20 (21st)
  • Bills:
    • Offensive Rankings
      • EPA/Play: 6th
      • Dropback EPA: 10th
      • Rush EPA: 3rd
      • Points per game: 26.5 (6th)
      • Yards per game: 374.5 (4th)
    • Defensive Rankings
      • EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 10th
      • Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 9th
      • Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 14th
      • Points per game allowed: 18.3 (29th most)
      • Yards per game allowed: 307.2 (24th most)
    • Point Differential Ranking: +140 (4th)

Steelers

Mason Rudolph ($5,300) has breathed a bit of life into the Steelers passing offense. Here are his averages in his three starts: 239 passing yards and 1 pass touchdown per game. Rudolph puts other Steelers' offensive pieces in play, but Rudolph himself shouldn't be considered at all.

The Bills are ten-point home favorites so the projected passing game script should be favorable for George Pickens ($5,200) and Diontae Jonhson ($5,000). Pickens put up 4-195-2 and 7-131 in Rudolph's first two starts but then goose egged in Week 18. He's a go-for-glory bet on talent tournament play. Johnson is intriguing due to a perceived reliable floor and an appealing price tag.

Pat Freiermuth ($3,600) has only caught five total passes in three Rudolph starts. He's a punt play, even in large field tournaments.

Najee Harris ($5,400) and Jaylen Warren ($5,100) cannibalize each other, and the projected game script isn't favorable. Warren is the preferred play due to his receiving role.

Bills

The Steelers defense has been average and just lost superstar T.J. Watt last week. Josh Allen ($8,000) is at home and in a good spot here. The only concern is whether he's not fully unleashed due to Pittsburgh not pushing back enough on the other side. Allen leads a Bills offense that ranks sixth in EPA/Play, tenth in Dropback EPA, 11th in PROE, and fourth in EDPF and he ranks first at the quarterback position in DraftKings fantasy points per game (25).

James Cook ($6,600) ranks ninth in total yards per game (94.7). He's an explosive dual-threat at home in a favorable projected game script and solid matchup. He's one of the best running back plays of the entire weekend.

Gabe Davis is out, which improves the target outlook for Stefon Diggs ($7,400), Dalton Kincaid ($4,600), and Khalil Shakir ($3,400). Count me as someone not overreacting to Diggs' recent slow stretch but at the same time not seeing this as the environment for a huge blowup spot. Instead, utilize the affordably priced Kincaid and Shakir when locking in an Allen pass catcher. Shakir is especially intriguing at near minimum salary after catching all six of his targets for 105 yards last week.

Packers at Cowboys

  • Packers:
    • Offensive Rankings
      • EPA/Play: 7th
      • Dropback EPA: 5th
      • Rush EPA: 9th
      • Points per game: 22.5 (12th)
      • Yards per game: 345.5 (11th)
    • Defensive Rankings
      • EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 25th
      • Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 25th
      • Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 12th
      • Points per game allowed: 20.6 (23rd most)
      • Yards per game allowed: 335.1 (15th most)
    • Point Differential Ranking: +33 (10th)
  • Cowboys:
    • Offensive Rankings
      • EPA/Play: 2nd
      • Dropback EPA: 2nd
      • Rush EPA: 17th
      • Points per game: 29.9 (1st)
      • Yards per game: 371.6 (5th)
    • Defensive Rankings
      • EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 26th
      • Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 27th
      • Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 10th
      • Points per game allowed: 18.5 (28th most)
      • Yards per game allowed: 299.7 (28th most)
    • Point Differential Ranking: +194 (2nd)

And now we get to the good stuff. This projects as a shootout between two hot offenses and two beatable defenses. And it should not be overlooked there are no weather concerns since this is being played in a dome. The Over/Under is 50.5.

Packers

Jordan Love ($6,300) is on a touchdown-throwing hot streak. He ranks fourth in pass touchdowns per game (1.9) and has thrown multiple touchdown passes in eight of his past nine games. Dallas has a solid defense, but they only rank 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 27th in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 8. There is room here for Love to keep his hot streak going.

Aaron Jones ($6,300) hasn't scored a touchdown since November 5th, but imagine if he had found the end zone recently. How differently would he be viewed? Jones is one of the best, if not the best, tournament plays of the entire week, especially with A.J. Dillon doubtful. Over the past three weeks since Jones was declared ready to roll health-wise by Green Bay's coaching staff, Jones has averaged 24 opportunities and 135.3 total yards. Both of those numbers would lead the NFL if they were over the full season. That means the current state of Jones is an elite play in terms of both opportunity and performance.

Christian Watson is questionable and should not be expected to play. That helps make Jayden Reed ($5,700), Dontayvion Wicks ($4,800), and Romeo Doubs ($5,400) all exciting plays in a projected high-scoring affair. Reed is by far the best play of the trio. His talent has been on display all season and he's caught four or more passes in eight straight games. But it's Wicks I really want to highlight here as a low-owned leverage tournament play. Here are Wicks's last three stat lines: 6-97 on 7 targets, 2-29-1 on 2 targets, and 6-61-2 on 7 targets. Wicks was a solid prospect and was drafted in the fifth round by Green Bay this past offseason. It certainly looks like Wicks is going to be a thing. Get out in front of it before your competition catches on.

Luke Musgrave ($3,200) returned from injury last week to only play on 15% of the offensive snaps. He's not even in consideration. His teammate Tucker Kraft ($3,300) is absolutely in play at near minimum salary though. Kraft played on 90% of the offensive snaps last week and has seen six targets in four of his past six games.

Cowboys

Dak Prescott ($7,600) is a smash play at home against a very bad Packers defense. Prescott has been incredible all year as he leads a Cowboys offense that ranks second in both EPA/Play and Dropback EPA, fifth in PROE, and 13th in EDPF and he ranks seventh in passing yards per game (264.8) and third in pass touchdowns per game (2).

CeeDee Lamb ($9,000) is the best wide receiver play of the weekend. Lamb cemented his superstar status this season while ranking second in targets per game (10.5), second in receptions per game (7.6), and second in receiving yards per game (103.2).

Brandin Cooks ($4,900) and Jake Ferguson ($4,700) are both priced attractively as secondary passing game options to pair with either Prescott or within a Packers/Cowboys game stack. Both have put their talent and spike week potential on display numerous times this season.

Tony Pollard ($6,100) ranks ninth in the NFL in opportunities per game (18.8) and can benefit from this projected high-scoring affair. The preference though is to attack the Packers through the air. Side with the Cowboys passing game over Pollard.

Rams at Lions

  • Rams:
    • Offensive Rankings
      • EPA/Play: 7th
      • Dropback EPA: 7th
      • Rush EPA: 4th
      • Points per game: 23.8 (8th)
      • Yards per game: 359.3 (7th)
    • Defensive Rankings
      • EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 8th
      • Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 11th
      • Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 7th
      • Points per game allowed: 22.2 (14th most)
      • Yards per game allowed: 337.9 (13th most)
    • Point Differential Ranking: +27 (11th)
  • Lions:
    • Offensive Rankings
      • EPA/Play: 9th
      • Dropback EPA: 6th
      • Rush EPA: 7th
      • Points per game: 27.1 (5th)
      • Yards per game: 394.8 (3rd)
    • Defensive Rankings
      • EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 16th
      • Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 24th
      • Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 6th
      • Points per game allowed: 23.2 (10th most)
      • Yards per game allowed: 336.1 (14th most)
    • Point Differential Ranking: +66 (8th)

This Rams at Lions game and the Packers at Cowboys game are the headliner fantasy matchups of the Wild Card round. This one has the highest Over/Under (51.5). It should not be overlooked there are no weather concerns since this is being played in a dome. And we get both Matthew Stafford returning to Detroit and a Jared Goff rivalry game.

Rams

Matthew Stafford ($6,500) is in an awesome spot here against a struggling Lions pass defense. Stafford is a fun tournament play as he's been awesome this year leading a Rams offense that ranks seventh in both EPA/Play and Dropback EPA, 11th in PROE, and 12th in EDPF, and he ranks eighth in passing yards per game (264.3) and 12th in pass touchdowns per game (1.6).

Puka Nacua ($7,200) and Cooper Kupp ($7,500) are the headliners for Stafford and/or Rams/Lions game stacks. Nacua just broke the rookie receiving records for receptions and receiving yards. He's big, strong, fast, and technical. Meanwhile, Kupp has gotten healthier as the season has gone on and has had two weeks to rest up for this game. Both are very strong plays, but Kupp is the preference. It's playoff time, and the chemistry between Stafford and Kupp will show up here while Kupp repeatedly finds the soft spots in Detroit's leaky pass defense. Plus, we get the bonus of Nacua likely being higher owned due to the recency bias of his records from last week.

We've gotten to the point where I'm giving Demarcus Robinson ($3,600) his own little segment here. Before the Rams' pointless Week 18 game, here were Robinson's offensive snap percentages over his past four games: 86%, 95%, 93%, 92%. And here were Robinson's stat lines in his final two games 6-82-1 on 6 targets and 6-92 on 10 targets. Robinson is an awesome, affordable tournament option here.

Playing the Rams offense through their passing offense is so fun from both tournament and matchup perspectives since Detroit is more stout against the run. But Kyren Williams ($7,300) has been unstoppable this year. Williams leads the entire NFL in opportunities per game (23), ranks third in total yards per game (112.5), and ranks third in total touchdowns with 15 despite playing in just 12 contests. Williams is a phenomenal play in his own right.

Lions

The Lions are at home in this favorable spot and we want to appreciate Ben Johnson's tenure as offensive coordinator with some more fantasy goodness before he likely moves on to become a head coach somewhere this upcoming offseason. Jared Goff ($6,200) leads a Lions offense that ranks ninth in EPA/Play and sixth in Dropback EPA and he ranks sixth in both passing yards per game (265.9) and pass touchdowns per game (1.8). He's not a priority play but one that should be considered if making multiple lineups.

Amon-Ra St. Brown is a lock button play. He ranks fifth in targets per game (10.3), third in receptions per game (7.5), and fifth in receiving yards per game (91.4).

Sam LaPorta is questionable, Kalif Raymond is out, and somewhat surprisingly, Jameson Williams ($3,500) has been removed from the injury report. Williams evolved into a consistent 60%ish offensive snap-share player over the second half of the season and earned his playing time in part because of aggressive blocking and hustling. Williams can break this slate with one long catch. He has the talent to do it. These injuries also benefit Josh Reynolds ($3,800) who played on a season-high 88% of the offensive snaps in Week 18.

David Montgomery ($6,200) averages 17.9 opportunities per game, and Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,500) averages 17.1 opportunities per game. This is a full-blown committee between the priority goal-line back (Montgomery) and the more explosive player (Gibbs). It's tough to take a stand in tournaments when the pain of being wrong would be extreme but the good news is the Lions offense is elite enough to support both players.

Eagles at Buccaneers

  • Eagles:
    • Offensive Rankings
      • EPA/Play: 4th
      • Dropback EPA: 4th
      • Rush EPA: 4th
      • Points per game: 25.5 (7th)
      • Yards per game: 354.4 (8th)
    • Defensive Rankings
      • EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 29th
      • Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 26th
      • Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 31st
      • Points per game allowed: 25.2 (3rd most)
      • Yards per game allowed: 356.1 (7th most)
    • Point Differential Ranking: +5 (15th)
  • Buccaneers:
    • Offensive Rankings from Weeks 8-17
      • EPA/Play: 13th
      • Dropback EPA: 9th
      • Rush EPA: 29th
      • Points per game: 20.5 (20th)
      • Yards per game: 313 (23rd)
    • Defensive Rankings
      • EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 27th
      • Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 28th
      • Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 12th
      • Points per game allowed: 19.1 (26th most)
      • Yards per game allowed: 344.2 (10th most)
    • Point Differential Ranking: +23 (13th)

Eagles

The Eagles offense is, unfortunately, limping into this one. Jalen Hurts ($7,700) is dealing with a finger injury which should be expected to limit him. Despite his dual-threat talent, this should cause you to think twice about playing him.

Another massive issue, A.J. Brown ($8,100) is listed as questionable after not practicing on Thursday or Friday. The vibes are not good here. Stay away.

If Hurts can be effective despite his finger injury, though, DeVonta Smith ($6,700) and Dallas Goedert ($4,800) are both extremely intriguing and solid plays. They're both extremely good talents in this league and get a pass-funnel Buccaneers' defense they should easily be able to attack.

D'Andre Swift ($6,000) has faded over the second half of the season and is an avoid on the road against a decent run defense.

Buccaneers

This feels like a spot where taking a stand will help you win tournaments, and by taking a stand, I mean just leaning into Tampa Bay. The Eagles defense has completely fallen apart. This is a smash spot on paper for all Buccaneers playmakers. And the beauty of it is their offense is highly concentrated.

Baker Mayfield ($5,800) has significantly impressed me this season. I was wrong about him and give him the flowers he has so rightfully earned. Mayfield leads a Buccaneers offense that ranks 13th in EPA/Play and ninth in Dropback EPA, and he ranks sixth in pass touchdowns per game (1.8). I can't even believe I'm saying this but Mayfield is in play at home in this smash spot.

Future Hall of Famer Mike Evans ($6,900) has gone over 1,000 receiving yards all ten seasons of his career and finished the regular season with 1,255 and 13 touchdowns. Chris Godwin ($6,200) has been significantly more involved as of late. His target totals over his past five games: 11, 12, 10, 5, 7.

Rachaad White ($6,900) is a dual-threat who should be able to take advantage of this matchup and spot as the struggling Eagles don't project to run away with this game. White ranks sixth in opportunities per game (19.9) and 12th in total yards per game (90.4).

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