4 Reasons Why Justin Herbert Will Bounce Back in 2023

Jason Wood's 4 Reasons Why Justin Herbert Will Bounce Back in 2023 Jason Wood Published 06/26/2023

The industry consensus places the trio of Patrick Mahomes II, Jalen Hurts, and Josh Allen at the top of the quarterback rankings, establishing them in an elite tier. These three passers will be the first drafted in almost every draft, but many fantasy managers will need to look elsewhere for a reliable quarterback as they strive for a playoff berth.

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Justin Herbert's Average Draft Position (ADP) situates him firmly in the next tier, a group that includes:

Based on what we've seen from Herbert over three seasons, his ADP appropriately reflects his baseline performance while allowing for potential improvement. Barring injury, it's hard to envision him not living up to his draft slot, given his enhanced situation in 2023:

  • He's in better health
  • Kellen Moore represents a significant upgrade at offensive coordinator
  • The offensive line is healthier and nearing the elite tier
  • The receiving corps is not only healthier but also deeper

A Historic Debut

Justin Herbert delivered the second-best fantasy season by a rookie in modern history.

TABLE: Top 20 Rookie Quarterback Performances (1960-Present), Sorted by Fantasy Points

Rank Player Team Year Cmps Atts PaYDs PaTD INT Rush RuYD RuTD FPTs
1 Cam Newton CAR 2011 310 517 4,051 21 17 126 706 14 383.6
2 Justin Herbert LAC 2020 396 595 4,336 31 10 55 234 5 340.8
3 Robert Griffin WAS 2012 259 394 3,211 20 5 118 833 7 328.7
4 Andrew Luck IND 2012 339 627 4,374 23 18 62 255 5 304.5
5 Dak Prescott DAL 2016 311 459 3,667 23 4 57 282 6 298.9
6 Kyler Murray ARI 2019 349 542 3,722 20 12 93 544 4 295.3
7 Jameis Winston TB 2015 312 535 4,044 22 15 54 213 6 292.1
8 Russell Wilson SEA 2012 252 393 3,118 26 10 94 489 4 291.6
9 Baker Mayfield CLE 2018 310 486 3,725 27 14 39 131 0 256.1
10 Daniel Jones NYG 2019 284 459 3,027 24 12 45 279 2 245.0
11 Gardner Minshew JAX 2019 285 470 3,271 21 6 67 344 0 243.2
12 Mac Jones NE 2021 352 521 3,802 22 13 44 129 0 240.0
13 Jim Kelly BUF 1986 285 480 3,593 22 17 41 199 0 234.6
14 Peyton Manning IND 1998 326 575 3,739 26 28 15 62 0 231.8
15 Carson Wentz PHI 2016 379 607 3,782 16 14 46 150 2 228.3
16 Andy Dalton CIN 2011 300 516 3,398 20 13 37 152 1 224.1
17 Josh Allen BUF 2018 169 320 2,074 10 12 89 631 8 222.1
18 Trevor Lawrence JAX 2021 359 602 3,641 12 17 73 334 2 222.0
19 Geno Smith NYJ 2013 247 443 3,046 12 21 72 366 6 221.4
20 Vince Young TEN 2006 184 357 2,199 12 13 83 552 7 220.2

And that happened with Anthony Lynn at the helm! Just imagine what could occur under a more aggressive, innovative offensive mind. Some fans believed their prayers were answered when the Chargers replaced Lynn with Brandon Staley as head coach in 2021. Staley – a defensive coach by nature – recruited Joe Lombardi from the Saints to coordinate the offense.

Herbert demonstrated the kind of improvement one hopes to see from Year One to Year Two.

TABLE: Top 20 Fantasy Quarterbacks, 2022

Rank Player Team Cmps Atts PaYDs PaTD INT Rush RuYD RuTD FPTs
1 Josh Allen BUF 409 646 4,407 36 15 122 763 6 417.6
2 Tom Brady TB 485 719 5,316 43 12 28 81 2 392.7
3 Justin Herbert LAC 443 672 5,014 38 15 63 302 3 385.8
4 Patrick Mahomes II KC 436 658 4,839 37 13 66 381 2 378.7
5 Aaron Rodgers GB 366 531 4,115 37 4 33 101 3 336.7
6 Matthew Stafford LAR 404 601 4,886 41 17 32 43 0 346.7
7 Dak Prescott DAL 410 596 4,449 37 10 48 146 1 336.6
8 Joe Burrow CIN 366 520 4,611 34 14 40 118 2 330.2
9 Jalen Hurts PHI 265 432 3,144 16 9 140 782 10 319.0
10 Kirk Cousins MIN 372 561 4,221 33 7 29 115 1 311.3
11 Kyler Murray ARI 333 481 3,787 24 10 88 423 5 309.8
12 Ryan Tannehill TEN 357 531 3,734 21 14 55 270 7 288.4
13 Derek Carr LV 428 626 4,804 23 14 40 108 0 281.0
14 Carson Wentz IND 322 516 3,563 27 7 57 215 1 271.0
15 Russell Wilson SEA 259 400 3,113 25 6 43 183 2 248.8
16 Lamar Jackson BAL 246 382 2,882 16 13 133 767 2 255.0
17 Jimmy Garoppolo SF 301 441 3,810 20 12 38 51 3 243.5
18 Matt Ryan ATL 375 560 3,968 20 12 40 82 1 240.9
19 Mac Jones NE 352 521 3,802 22 13 44 129 0 240.0
20 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 390 605 3,740 22 10 20 5 1 234.1

After an almost record-breaking rookie season, followed by a second year that showed improvements in nearly every key metric, expectations for Herbert going into 2022 were understandably high.

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BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR

2022 didn't go as planned.

  • Keenan Allen missed the better part of 10 games, only playing 46% of snaps.
  • Mike Williams missed six games, playing 56% of snaps.
  • Starting left tackle Rashawn Slater suffered a season-ending injury after three games.
  • Herbert played through rib and shoulder injuries, which were more severe than he led on.

Herbert commented, "The ribs early on were pretty tough. I had to deal with discomfort for six or seven weeks. But as that improved, time healed. The shoulder was another discomfort. I was able to throw and do everything but was somewhat limited during practice. So, I had to figure out how to be out there and get all the reps without actually doing them all."

After the season concluded, Justin Herbert underwent shoulder surgery and is healthy and participating in team activities.

Joe Lombardi Out, Kellen Moore In

Under growing pressure following a lackluster season, Coach Staley dismissed Lombardi, and the team hired Kellen Moore. While it's never 100% certain that a new coordinator will be an improvement, Moore’s arrival comes as close to a guaranteed upgrade as we've seen in the NFL in years.

Moore produced elite units in three out of his four seasons as the Cowboys' coordinator. The only season that didn't achieve remarkable success, 2020, was when Dak Prescott missed most of the games.

  • 2019 – 1st in Yards, 6th in Points
  • 2020 – 14th in Yards, 17th in Points (Prescott missed 11 games)
  • 2021 – 1st in Yards, 1st in Points
  • 2022 – 11th in Yards, 4th in Points

Very few NFL play-callers have enjoyed as much success as Moore in their first four seasons. Even more impressive, Moore thrived under two different head coaches. He was Jason Garrett’s OC in 2019 and was retained when Mike McCarthy took over. Unfortunately for Cowboys’ fans, McCarthy couldn't bear someone else calling his offense and let go of Moore despite his stellar performance. The Chargers hired Moore days later.

Other reasons why Moore is a step up from Lombardi:

  • Dallas ranked 1st last year in second-half points (13.8), while the Chargers ranked 28th (8.0). This was despite Mike McCarthy pressuring Moore to slow things down in the second half instead of aggressively closing out games.
  • Dallas ranked 1st in red zone touchdown percentage (71.4%), whereas the Chargers scored in the middle of the pack (54.6%).
  • Dallas ranked 7th with 30.9 rushing attempts per game, while the Chargers ranked 28th with 23.7 attempts.

A Good Offensive Line Gets Better

When Slater suffered an early-season injury, the Chargers had to play Jamaree Salyer at left tackle. Salyer, a 6th-round rookie, was viewed by most scouts as a guard at the NFL level. But desperate times called for desperate measures, and Salyer proved himself capable under the circumstances. The great news is that Salyer demonstrated he can play tackle if needed, and his experience as a starting player on the edge bodes well as he transitions to right guard in 2023. With Salyer bolstering the interior and Slater returning at tackle, the Chargers boast one of the league’s top offensive lines.

  • LT Rashawn Slater
  • LG Zion Johnson
  • C Cory Linsley
  • RG Jamaree Salyer
  • RT Trey Pipkins

The Receiving Corps Gets Healthier and Deeper

  • Keenan Allen is back. There was speculation that the Chargers might cut Allen for cap reasons, but they opted to retain him this year because he’s the team's best route runner and most trusted target when healthy.
  • Mike Williams returned to practice during June's mini-camp after a contentious injury in a meaningless Week 18 game sidelined him for the team's 30-31 playoff loss to the Jaguars.
  • The Chargers selected Quentin Johnston in the first round of the draft. The large-bodied TCU receiver closely mirrors Williams physically and steps into the WR3 role immediately. However, he could become the No. 1 option within a season or two.

Stats and Projections

Season G CMP ATT YD TD INT RSH YD TD FUML
2020 15 396 595 4336 31 10 55 234 5 1
2021 17 443 672 5014 38 15 63 302 3 1
2022 17 477 699 4739 25 10 54 147 0 3
Projector G CMP ATT YD TD INT RSH YD TD FUML
Consensus 16.6 458.6 678.7 5027 30.7 13.4 66.2 253 2.3 2.6
Amico 17.0 434.2 661.0 5027 32.9 11.4 74.9 297 3.5 0.0
Freeman 17.0 476.7 650.4 5083 28.3 13.9 72.1 298 2.9 7.2
Henry 16.5 446.0 665.0 4875 32.0 12.0 58.0 220 2.0 1.0
Tremblay 16.7 470.0 720.0 5019 24.8 17.1 58.0 164 0.9 1.4
Wood 16.0 446.0 667.0 4910 34.0 12.0 65.0 275 2.0 3.0

Final Thoughts

Justin Herbert started his career with one of the best rookie seasons in history, finishing as the 9th-ranked fantasy quarterback. He catapulted into the elite in 2021 (QB3), but questionable coaching, injuries, and a diminished supporting cast saw him fall back to QB8. This ranking is both his floor and in line with his ADP. Drafting a player at their floor is always a good move, especially when the chances of exceeding that floor are high.

Herbert, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Rashawn Slater are all healthy. Quentin Johnston provides a significant upgrade at WR3. More importantly, Kellen Moore brings a much more productive, innovative, and adaptable offensive system than his predecessor. While no one should draft Herbert ahead of Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, or Patrick Mahomes II, don't hesitate to target Herbert at his ADP or even a round earlier.

Photos provided by Imagn Images
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