The industry consensus places the trio of Patrick Mahomes II, Jalen Hurts, and Josh Allen at the top of the quarterback rankings, establishing them in an elite tier. These three passers will be the first drafted in almost every draft, but many fantasy managers will need to look elsewhere for a reliable quarterback as they strive for a playoff berth.
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Justin Herbert's Average Draft Position (ADP) situates him firmly in the next tier, a group that includes:
- Lamar Jackson (QB4) – 35.2 ADP
- Joe Burrow (QB5) – 46.3 ADP
- Justin Fields (QB6) – 49.1 ADP
- Justin Herbert (QB7) – 55.4 ADP
Based on what we've seen from Herbert over three seasons, his ADP appropriately reflects his baseline performance while allowing for potential improvement. Barring injury, it's hard to envision him not living up to his draft slot, given his enhanced situation in 2023:
- He's in better health
- Kellen Moore represents a significant upgrade at offensive coordinator
- The offensive line is healthier and nearing the elite tier
- The receiving corps is not only healthier but also deeper
A Historic Debut
Justin Herbert delivered the second-best fantasy season by a rookie in modern history.
TABLE: Top 20 Rookie Quarterback Performances (1960-Present), Sorted by Fantasy Points
| Rank | Player | Team | Year | Cmps | Atts | PaYDs | PaTD | INT | Rush | RuYD | RuTD | FPTs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cam Newton | CAR | 2011 | 310 | 517 | 4,051 | 21 | 17 | 126 | 706 | 14 | 383.6 |
| 2 | Justin Herbert | LAC | 2020 | 396 | 595 | 4,336 | 31 | 10 | 55 | 234 | 5 | 340.8 |
| 3 | Robert Griffin | WAS | 2012 | 259 | 394 | 3,211 | 20 | 5 | 118 | 833 | 7 | 328.7 |
| 4 | Andrew Luck | IND | 2012 | 339 | 627 | 4,374 | 23 | 18 | 62 | 255 | 5 | 304.5 |
| 5 | Dak Prescott | DAL | 2016 | 311 | 459 | 3,667 | 23 | 4 | 57 | 282 | 6 | 298.9 |
| 6 | Kyler Murray | ARI | 2019 | 349 | 542 | 3,722 | 20 | 12 | 93 | 544 | 4 | 295.3 |
| 7 | Jameis Winston | TB | 2015 | 312 | 535 | 4,044 | 22 | 15 | 54 | 213 | 6 | 292.1 |
| 8 | Russell Wilson | SEA | 2012 | 252 | 393 | 3,118 | 26 | 10 | 94 | 489 | 4 | 291.6 |
| 9 | Baker Mayfield | CLE | 2018 | 310 | 486 | 3,725 | 27 | 14 | 39 | 131 | 0 | 256.1 |
| 10 | Daniel Jones | NYG | 2019 | 284 | 459 | 3,027 | 24 | 12 | 45 | 279 | 2 | 245.0 |
| 11 | Gardner Minshew | JAX | 2019 | 285 | 470 | 3,271 | 21 | 6 | 67 | 344 | 0 | 243.2 |
| 12 | Mac Jones | NE | 2021 | 352 | 521 | 3,802 | 22 | 13 | 44 | 129 | 0 | 240.0 |
| 13 | Jim Kelly | BUF | 1986 | 285 | 480 | 3,593 | 22 | 17 | 41 | 199 | 0 | 234.6 |
| 14 | Peyton Manning | IND | 1998 | 326 | 575 | 3,739 | 26 | 28 | 15 | 62 | 0 | 231.8 |
| 15 | Carson Wentz | PHI | 2016 | 379 | 607 | 3,782 | 16 | 14 | 46 | 150 | 2 | 228.3 |
| 16 | Andy Dalton | CIN | 2011 | 300 | 516 | 3,398 | 20 | 13 | 37 | 152 | 1 | 224.1 |
| 17 | Josh Allen | BUF | 2018 | 169 | 320 | 2,074 | 10 | 12 | 89 | 631 | 8 | 222.1 |
| 18 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 2021 | 359 | 602 | 3,641 | 12 | 17 | 73 | 334 | 2 | 222.0 |
| 19 | Geno Smith | NYJ | 2013 | 247 | 443 | 3,046 | 12 | 21 | 72 | 366 | 6 | 221.4 |
| 20 | Vince Young | TEN | 2006 | 184 | 357 | 2,199 | 12 | 13 | 83 | 552 | 7 | 220.2 |
And that happened with Anthony Lynn at the helm! Just imagine what could occur under a more aggressive, innovative offensive mind. Some fans believed their prayers were answered when the Chargers replaced Lynn with Brandon Staley as head coach in 2021. Staley – a defensive coach by nature – recruited Joe Lombardi from the Saints to coordinate the offense.
Herbert demonstrated the kind of improvement one hopes to see from Year One to Year Two.
TABLE: Top 20 Fantasy Quarterbacks, 2022
| Rank | Player | Team | Cmps | Atts | PaYDs | PaTD | INT | Rush | RuYD | RuTD | FPTs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Allen | BUF | 409 | 646 | 4,407 | 36 | 15 | 122 | 763 | 6 | 417.6 |
| 2 | Tom Brady | TB | 485 | 719 | 5,316 | 43 | 12 | 28 | 81 | 2 | 392.7 |
| 3 | Justin Herbert | LAC | 443 | 672 | 5,014 | 38 | 15 | 63 | 302 | 3 | 385.8 |
| 4 | Patrick Mahomes II | KC | 436 | 658 | 4,839 | 37 | 13 | 66 | 381 | 2 | 378.7 |
| 5 | Aaron Rodgers | GB | 366 | 531 | 4,115 | 37 | 4 | 33 | 101 | 3 | 336.7 |
| 6 | Matthew Stafford | LAR | 404 | 601 | 4,886 | 41 | 17 | 32 | 43 | 0 | 346.7 |
| 7 | Dak Prescott | DAL | 410 | 596 | 4,449 | 37 | 10 | 48 | 146 | 1 | 336.6 |
| 8 | Joe Burrow | CIN | 366 | 520 | 4,611 | 34 | 14 | 40 | 118 | 2 | 330.2 |
| 9 | Jalen Hurts | PHI | 265 | 432 | 3,144 | 16 | 9 | 140 | 782 | 10 | 319.0 |
| 10 | Kirk Cousins | MIN | 372 | 561 | 4,221 | 33 | 7 | 29 | 115 | 1 | 311.3 |
| 11 | Kyler Murray | ARI | 333 | 481 | 3,787 | 24 | 10 | 88 | 423 | 5 | 309.8 |
| 12 | Ryan Tannehill | TEN | 357 | 531 | 3,734 | 21 | 14 | 55 | 270 | 7 | 288.4 |
| 13 | Derek Carr | LV | 428 | 626 | 4,804 | 23 | 14 | 40 | 108 | 0 | 281.0 |
| 14 | Carson Wentz | IND | 322 | 516 | 3,563 | 27 | 7 | 57 | 215 | 1 | 271.0 |
| 15 | Russell Wilson | SEA | 259 | 400 | 3,113 | 25 | 6 | 43 | 183 | 2 | 248.8 |
| 16 | Lamar Jackson | BAL | 246 | 382 | 2,882 | 16 | 13 | 133 | 767 | 2 | 255.0 |
| 17 | Jimmy Garoppolo | SF | 301 | 441 | 3,810 | 20 | 12 | 38 | 51 | 3 | 243.5 |
| 18 | Matt Ryan | ATL | 375 | 560 | 3,968 | 20 | 12 | 40 | 82 | 1 | 240.9 |
| 19 | Mac Jones | NE | 352 | 521 | 3,802 | 22 | 13 | 44 | 129 | 0 | 240.0 |
| 20 | Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | 390 | 605 | 3,740 | 22 | 10 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 234.1 |
After an almost record-breaking rookie season, followed by a second year that showed improvements in nearly every key metric, expectations for Herbert going into 2022 were understandably high.