Links to similar discussions on other positions:
This article will be similar to running backs, which varied from the format for quarterbacks and tight ends due to positional scarcity in fantasy football. If the optimal strategy is to draft quarterbacks and tight ends late, fantasy GMs would be filling their rosters with running backs and wide receivers in the early rounds.
Therefore, this article will focus on late-round wide receivers. These players will always be backups on our fantasy team, but unlike running backs, they may not be backups on their NFL team. Because we've spent at least seven rounds filling our roster with backs and receivers, we have a true WR1 and at least two additional starter-quality receivers. The goal with a late-round receiver is similar to late-round running backs: we want top-12 production. But at running back, we looked for players who needed injuries ahead of them to get on the field consistently.
At wide receiver, we're seeking a combination of players who would benefit from an injury ahead of them and players who may already be on the field but could command more opportunities with high-end play. Either way, we want WR1 upside late in the draft.
Signs of WR1 Potential
In fantasy football, the offensive unit as a whole has a significant impact on the production of a player. For wide receivers, this is especially true as they are dependent on quarterback play. There are also additional factors that can point to WR1 potential:
- Offense: how good is the unit and its quarterback?
- Big Play Ability: can the player score 10+ fantasy points with one touch?
- Red Zone Prowess and Usage: a tall receiver targeted on fades and jump balls could have more touchdown potential than a smaller player
- Depth Chart Situation: how close is he to getting (and staying) on the field?
Here are a few late-round selections (WR36 or later as of this writing) and their current situations.
| Player | Offense | Big Plays | Red Zone | Depth Chart |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | x | x | x | |
| Kadarius Toney | x | x | x | |
| Chris Olave | x | x | ||
| George Pickens | x | x | x | |
| Rondale Moore | x | x | x | |
| K.J. Osborn | x | x | ||
| Isaiah McKenzie | x | x |
Comments on each player:
- London: Will start from Day 1; top-10 NFL draft talent with limited target competition.
- Toney: Second-year breakout possible for first-round pedigree. QB play can't be worse.
- Olave: Wouldn't be shocked to see him outscore Thomas on his own team.
- Pickens: Has done it all at camp. The offense a concern, but he could take snaps from Claypool.
- Moore: Should get off to hot start with Hopkins suspended; has multiple ways to make plays.
- Osborn: Should see the field more with MIN moving to more 3-WR sets; efficient in red zone.
- McKenzie: Only has to hold off Crowder to be key cog in elite offense.
Let's look at what some of our staffers think about the players above. First, from our "Wide Receiver Values" article:
Jeff Bell on Moore:
The departure of Christian Kirk and Chase Edmonds opens up the opportunity for his skill set as a player who can work in the passing game out of the backfield or within the slot. Advanced metrics are not kind to his rookie performance, but for a player who missed most of this last two college seasons, some expectation on getting up to NFL speed should have been baked in. Moore represents a discount in an elite offense on a player who carried very high draft capital in 2021.
Kevin Coleman on Toney:
Toney showed flashes of his ceiling last season in weeks 4 and 5, where he had 16 receptions for 267 yards. With Brian Daboll now in New York, look for him to scheme ways to get Toney the football. There is a chance that Toney will finish as a low-end WR2 this season.
And here are some more thoughts on the "Deep Sleepers" wide receivers.
Jeff Haseley on McKenzie:
Isaiah McKenzie is getting regular and nearly equal snaps with both Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis on the first-team Bills offense. He appears to have the edge as the Buffalo slot receiver role over Jamison Crowder. You want players on good offenses. I can see McKenzie having a Cole Beasley-like season.
Christian Williams on Osborn:
The introduction of Kevin O'Connell gives Osborn weekly upside despite Thielen's return. O'Connell will run more three-receiver sets, and the offense will operate with a pass-first mindset. Osborn should see an uptick in targets based on volume alone, and if he continues his ascension, he could be the best value pick of fantasy drafts.
Summary
Wide receivers are harder to handcuff than running back. When a team's number one back goes down, the burden of replacing that workload and production is often shouldered by one or two players. When a wide receiver is injured, a team can re-distribute targets to as many as a half-dozen players or more.
Identifying late-round WR1 upside is more difficult, but the players above offer a combination of play-making talent and potential opportunity to provide a shot in the arm for the fantasy GMs who roster them. Remember: these are backups on your roster because you drafted starters early in the draft. Aim high and play to dominate your league!
Questions, comments, suggestions, and other feedback on this piece are always welcome via e-mail at hester@footballguys.com.