Receivers with Great or Bad Matchups Week 18

Photo: USA Today Sports

This article attempts to highlight some of the best and worst matchups for wide receivers and tight ends each week. Using player tracking data from various sources (NFL.com, Pro Football Focus, ESPN, etc.) as well as reviews of recent trends, I look for situations to exploit or avoid when setting your weekly lineups. Given that this article is intended to help across all sites (both DFS and season-long), variations in pricing and scoring systems are not taken into account, so obviously, the values could shift depending on where you are playing. The main intent of this article is simply to call out some players who could be significantly helped or hurt by their situations each week.

Favorable Matchup

WR Christian Kirk (JAX vs TEN) vs Roger McCreary

There is a lot riding on this last game of the season, and the Tennessee secondary has struggled all season. Kristian Fulton has missed the last four games with an injury, and this squad as a whole has allowed the most fantasy points overall. They have also allowed 19 touchdowns to opposing receivers and do not have a healthy offense to give them a break. Kirk is also playing for contract incentives he is playing for. He would earn another $500,000 when he reaches 80, 90, and 100 catches with the same amounts for reaching 1,000, 1,100, and 1,200 yards. Kirk fell off his pace with a slow showing last week and will be fully motivated to help the team win their division and take home some extra cash in the process. All Jacksonville receivers can be upgraded this week, but Kirk has the most to play for.

WR Justin Jefferson (MIN vs CHI) vs Kyler Gordon

The star Vikings receiver was held in check last week by Green Bay but is walking into a great matchup against Chicago this week. The Vikings are locked into the second or third seed after their loss last week and do not have a lot to play for outside of righting the ship after the Green Bay disaster. Chicago’s secondary has been middle of the road all season, but they are without their two top corners in Jaylon Johnson and Kindle Vildor. They were worked over by Detroit last week and will have an even tougher time this week with Minnesota. Jefferson had 154 yards in their last meeting and needs 193 yards to break Calvin Johnson’s single-season record. The game may not mean a lot for the playoff picture, but it does have a lot of personal goals and records possible.

WR Terry McLaurin (WAS vs DAL) vs Trevon Diggs

The results from their game back in Week 4 can mostly be thrown out as Dallas is now missing Anthony Brown and Jourdan Lewis. McLaurin and Jahan Dotson should have a field day on the perimeter against Diggs and Nahshon Wright. Dallas has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to receivers overall as well as to the perimeter. They have been even worse over the past month, allowing the second-most points. Washington is starting Sam Howell at quarterback this week after being eliminated from the playoffs. This may cause some pause; McLaurin should still be upgraded in this matchup.

WR Chris Olave (NO vs CAR) vs Keith Taylor

Things seemed to be trending in the right direction once Sam Darnold came back, but then the defense took a turn for the worse and has now allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing receivers. Donte Jackson and Jaycee Horn have been lost to the IR, and the remaining group is allowing an average of 0.38 fantasy points per coverage snap. Neither team has much to play for, as they have been eliminated from playoff contention. However, the Saints will want to assess what they have at quarterback and continue to show Olave as the receiver of the future with a Michael Thomas return being in doubt. Upgrade Olave against this secondary in the final game of the season.

WR Russell Gage (TB vs ATL) vs Cornell Armstrong

The easy name to be attracted to this week would be Mike Evans after last week's big game. However, he should see shadow coverage from A.J. Terrell, leaving Armstrong to contend with Gage. Before last week, Gage had led this group of receivers in touchdown catches and was seeing plenty of volume. This could continue this week as he has the best matchup on the field against a struggling Armstrong. The young corner is allowing 0.63 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 32% of the time. Evans is still going to see his targets despite the shadow coverage, but Gage has a good chance of being highly targeted this week in a great matchup. All Tampa Bay receivers can be upgraded this week against Atlanta with no indication they are going to rest their starters.

WR DeVonta Smith (PHI vs NYG) vs Fabian Moreau

There are a lot of different factors this week in this matchup. The Eagles are playing to secure the No. 1 overall seed and could see Jalen Hurts back in the mix to do so. The Giants have secured the #6 seed and do not have anything to play for outside of pride. Adoree Jackson is slated to return after missing six weeks with an ankle injury, but the Giants could rest their starters. The Eagles have every incentive to go all out for the No. 1 seed and a bye. Smith and A.J. Brown should be upgraded this week regardless of who the Giants' corners are.

TE Evan Engram (JAX vs TEN)

The performance last week was a major letdown, but Engram is a great bounce-back candidate this week. Tennessee is currently allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, and Engram torched them for nearly 40 points in their Week 14 matchup. This game will decide the division winner, and both teams will be going all out. Look for Engram to come through with a top-10 finish at tight end this week.

TE Tyler Higbee (LAR vs SEA)

Much like Engram above, Higbee did not have a good showing last week after putting up back-to-back dominating performances. Engram had scored 43 points over the previous two contests and has become a focal point in the red zone with Baker Mayfield. Seattle has allowed double-digit fantasy points to tight ends 12 times this season and has allowed 14 or more points in each of the last three weeks. Higbee is in a good spot for a big game this week.