This article attempts to highlight some of the best and worst matchups for wide receivers and tight ends each week. Using player tracking data from various sources (NFL.com, Pro Football Focus, ESPN, etc.) as well as reviews of recent trends, I look for situations to exploit or avoid when setting your weekly lineups. Given that this article is intended to help across all sites (both DFS and season-long), variations in pricing and scoring systems are not taken into account, so obviously, the values could shift depending on where you are playing. The main intent of this article is simply to call out some players who could be significantly helped or hurt by their situations each week.
Favorable Matchup
WR Michael Pittman (IND vs PIT) vs Ahkello Witherspoon
The Steelers have struggled against wide receivers this year to the tune of allowing the most fantasy points. Witherspoon has allowed 0.55 fantasy points per coverage snap and has missed the past two games with a hamstring injury. There is a chance he suits up this week and will face a stiff test with Pittman on the outside. If Witherspoon is unable to go, Cameron Sutton figures to slide outside with Art Maulet covering the slot. Regardless of the injury situation, this is a good week for all of the Colts’ receivers. Upgrade this unit across the board with Pittman leading the way.
WR DeVante Parker (NE vs MIN) vs Patrick Peterson
The Vikings' defense finally caught up with them last week against the Cowboys. They have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing receivers this season and the second-most over the past month. It is hard to predict what the Patriots will do at the perimeter as they have shuffled their receivers all season, but Parker has the best track record in a great matchup. Peterson has been the best option in what has been a bad secondary, but he has allowed his fair share of points this season. If you need to start any of the Patriots this week, Parker is the best option.
WR Tyler Lockett (SEA vs LV) vs Anthony Averett
Seattle is coming off a Bye week and will get to face a Las Vegas team that has been reeling this season. Geno Smith looks like the comeback player of the year, and both DK Metcalf and Lockett have played well. This week, Lockett has the best matchup against Averett on the right side. Averett has allowed 0.32 fantasy points per coverage snap. Lockett also slides into the slot roughly 30% of the time and has an even better matchup against Sam Webb, who is allowing nearly 0.50 fantasy points per coverage snap. This is a great week for Lockett in a premier matchup.
WR Jarvis Landry (NO vs SF) vs Jimmie Ward
Landry bounced back last week with a touchdown in a win against the Rams. He had not been a big part of this offense to that point but has a great matchup this week against Ward. The 49ers have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing slot receivers as well as the most over the past two months. Look for Andy Dalton to attack the middle of the field with short passes to Alvin Kamara out of the backfield and to Landry slanting across the middle. Landry is a great flex play in DFS this week or if you need high upside from the waiver wire in your season-long league.
WR Garrett Wilson (NYJ vs CHI) vs Jaylon Johnson
The biggest thing working for Wilson this week will be the change back to Joe Flacco at quarterback. This duo had a great connection early in the season and should be able to take advantage of a great matchup this week. The Bears have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing receivers and have seen those numbers even higher over the past month. Johnson was a shadow candidate earlier in the season but has given up several big plays. He now primarily plays the right side and should see a good chunk of Wilson. Look for the Jets to have a much better offensive showing than they did against the Patriots last week.
WR Brandon Aiyuk (SF vs NO) vs Paulson Adebo
The 49ers' offense looked to fire on all cylinders last week with more than enough fantasy points to be spread amongst their stars. Aiyuk was a top weapon in the red zone and hauled in 2 touchdowns while George Kittle and Deebo Samuel scored from further out. Adebo has been the weak spot in this defense for most of the season and is allowing 0.55 fantasy points per coverage snap. Aiyuk is squarely in WR2 territory this week and is in line for another solid showing.
TE T.J. Hockenson (MIN vs NE)
Hockenson has been a great pickup for the Vikings so far. He is averaging just under 12 fantasy points per game and has yet to score a touchdown. He is averaging nine targets per game, and only Travis Kelce has more. Hockenson has one of the safest floors at TE since coming to the Vikings, and we have yet to see his true ceiling in this offense. The Patriots are in the middle of the pack averaging 13 points per game to opposing tight ends. This is the perfect stage for Hockenson to have a big game.
TE Pat Freiermuth (PIT vs IND)
Freiermuth has been one of the most reliable tight ends over the past month. He is averaging 12.2 fantasy points in his past 4 games and saw a season-high 12 targets last week. He has averaged at least 7 targets per game over the past month and has seen a 30% target share in this offense. The Colts rank near the middle of the pack against tight ends, but the strength of Freiermuth should more than make up for that. Tight end has been one of the weakest positions this season, and he has cemented himself as a must-start.
Unfavorable Matchup:
WR D.J. Moore (CAR vs DEN) vs Patrick Surtain
Despite the poor showing against Davante Adams last week, Surtain and the Broncos’ secondary has been elite so far this season. They have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers and the fourth-fewest to perimeter receivers. Even if Surtain does not shadow full-time, Moore lines up outside more than 72% of the time and will see a lot of Surtain by default. This is already a tough matchup, but if
Baker Mayfield is still under center which is even more reason to avoid this matchup.
WR Chase Claypool (CHI vs NYJ) vs Ahmad Gardner
The Jets continue to play well against opposing receivers this season. They are allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points as well as the third-fewest to the perimeter. Gardner has led the charge as a rookie and should see the most time against Claypool. Since trading for Claypool a few weeks ago, the Bears still have not fully integrated him into the offense. There are still questions about the health of Justin Fields, and this is a group of receivers to avoid in a tough matchup this week.
WR Justin Jefferson (MIN vs NE) vs Jonathan Jones
Despite being one of the top receivers in the game, Jefferson is not immune to bad games. He was limited last week against Dallas, and he is walking into another tough matchup this week against Jones. The Patriots are currently allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers, and Jones is allowing just 0.15 fantasy points per coverage snap. Jefferson moves all over the field and will not always be covered by Jones. This is also a prime-time game and a stage where Kirk Cousins has historically fell short. Jefferson is a must-start in season-long leagues but should be downgraded in DFS this week.
WR Brandin Cooks (HOU vs MIA) vs Xavien Howard
Howard and the Dolphins’ defense has not been as dominant as in years past, but they have been trending in the right direction in recent weeks. They have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to the right perimeter this season and Howard has manned that spot over 60% of the time. Howard has shadowed several times this season, and Cooks is the clear No. 1 receiver for Houston. The relationship between Cooks and the Texans appears fractured and his usage has been down since not being traded. Avoid Cooks in a tough matchup with his numbers already trending down this season.
WR Chris Godwin (TB vs CLE) vs Greg Newsome
Godwin finally broke through with a touchdown in his last outing and has been targeted at a near double-digit clip since returning from injury. However, this week he is walking into the toughest matchup of the season. Newsome and the Browns allow the fewest fantasy points to the slot position. Godwin is going to get his looks as he is a favorite target of Tom Brady. His price still keeps him in contention for DFS, but temper overall expectations in what is the toughest matchup in the NFL for slot receivers.
WR Christian Watson (GB vs PHI) vs Darius Slay
Watson has exploded onto the scene for Green Bay over the past few weeks. That run may come to an end this week in what is a tough matchup against Slay and the Philadelphia secondary. Slay is not currently expected to shadow Watson but should see a lot by default. Watson plays all over the field with the highest percentage coming opposite where Slay normally plays. Aaron Rodgers has the ability to throw anyone open and has played better over the past 2 weeks, but this is still a tough matchup. Downgrade this receiver group against an excellent Philadelphia secondary.
TE Austin Hooper (TEN vs CIN)
Hooper exploded for nearly 20 fantasy points last week and that may encourage managers to start him. However, those points came from his first two touchdowns of the season and just 4 catches for 36 yards. Hooper had yet to have double-digit fantasy points in any game before that. He is also taking on a Cincinnati defense that is allowing the fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends, with just 4.3 allowed. With no Bye weeks in the NFL there should be better options on the waiver wire than Hooper.
TE Hunter Henry (NE vs MIN)
Henry has averaged just 2 targets, 1.8 catches, and 26 yards per game over the past month. He has just 7 catches for 104 yards over the past month. Those would be great numbers for a tight end in a single game, but are terrible over the course of a month. The Vikings are allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends with 8.2 per game. There is not enough volume in this offense to trust Henry right now. Look for other options if available.