The turbulence of Free Agency and the NFL Draft have once again shifted the face of the NFL landscape. We are now at a point in the offseason where the waters have calmed down. Players are beginning to adjust to their new environments, rookie camps have taken place, and camp reports have started to shape expectations. In the world of fantasy football, the lights in mock draft lobbies have begun to flicker on, and people are beginning to practice for their respective fantasy drafts.
Average draft position, or ADP, is a term used to describe where a player is most often selected within a draft. During this time of year, namely June, the ADP of most players generally does not accurately represent their actual value going into the 2022 regular season. Current ADP instead reflects the perceptions of how said players may have ended the previous season, team changes, or the injuries from which they are recovering. This article aims to track the movement of specific players' ADP throughout the offseason and help us identify value within our drafts. However, it will also be a fun study in tracking how and why a player’s ADP has been affected.
This article will pull ADP from Footballguys and will cover the first 10 rounds of a draft under the scoring setting of a half-point per reception league. Within each round, we will discuss the player’s value and the reasoning for their ADP shift in the coming months. This article will be the first installment of three and we will revisit each player’s ADP once a month until the regular season begins.
Let’s get started.
Round 1: Joe Mixon
Going into the 2021 regular season, Joe Mixon was being drafted as the twentieth player overall in point-per-reception scoring formats. People were understandably skeptical of Mixon finishing as an RB1, given that he had only done it once before during his five-year career. Last year, Mixon vastly outperformed that ADP, finishing as the RB3 from weeks 1-17.
In June, Mixon is being drafted as the tenth player overall according to Footballguys ADP, and his utilization justifies his current cost. In 16 games last year, Mixon carried the ball 292 times, the third-highest attempt total among all running backs, while rushing for 13 touchdowns. This means that he scored a touchdown once every 22.5 rush attempts. Many would people would argue against Mixon being drafted at tenth overall. Their primary argument against him would be that his touchdowns have to regress to a historically average amount. Dating back to 2015, 15 running backs with at least 292 rush attempts averaged a rushing touchdown on a median of 22.5 attempts. Coincidentally, that is Mixon's exact rush attempt per touchdown rate. While there may be some regression, history tells us that it won't be by much.
Mixon was also adequate as a receiver. He saw 9.2 percent of the team’s targets in 2021. That was Mixon's highest percentage in the three years he has played under head coach Zac Taylor. Additionally, Mixon was sixth in routes run among all running backs in 2021 while being targeted on 17.4 percent of those routes. That was a percentage higher than what Dalvin Cook received in 2021. The top earners at the running back position saw above a 20 percent target rate on routes run. With no notable additions to the Cincinnati Bengals' backfield, Mixon's team targets and targets per route run seem safe for 2022.
When looking at recent historical trends and utilization, it's clear that Joe Mixon is set up for another RB1 finish in 2022 and is worth his draft cost.
ADP prediction: Mixon's current ADP holds. Maybe he is justifiably drafted over Dalvin Cook who is one spot higher.
Round 2: Aaron Jones
Jones is expected to see a significant increase in team target opportunities in 2022. Davante Adams was traded to the Raiders this offseason, which has created a large target vacuum in Green Bay. The Packers did little to address the wide receiver position through Free Agency and only drafted a raw wide receiver prospect in Christian Watson. In games that Adams has missed, Jones had averaged 22.89 fantasy points per game instead of 14.88 when Adam was active.
In regards to carries, Jones will be sharing a backfield with fellow running back A.J. Dillion, who outweighs Jones by 42 pounds. While seeing his fair share of targets, Dillon will serve as the early-down runner, but Jones will run away with the targets in that backfield. Jones finished 8th among running backs in routes run last year and was targeted on 21.6 percent of those routes. That is elite target volume for the running back position.
We've seen Jones finish as an RB1 with less volume. With Davante Adams now gone, Jones is in a prime spot to outproduce his ADP in 2022. Expect the Packers to feed Jones targets at a career-high rate.
ADP prediction: A rise up five spots due to people catching on to the narrative.
Round 3: Saquon Barkley
With Brain Daboll as the New York Giants' Head Coach, Saquon Barkley is legitimately set up to vault back as a top-five running back in 2022. Under Daboll, Buffalo Bills' starting running back Devin Singletary finished at exactly number three in routes run at the position in both 2020 and 2021. Singletary, however, was only targeted at a nominal rate of 13.8 and 12.9 percent of his routes.
Meanwhile, Saquon Barkley was 24th in routes run in 2021, yet had a target rate of 22.2 percent. Of the other 23 running backs ranked in front of Barkley, only Leonard Fournette, DAndre Swift, and Alvin Kamara had higher target rates. That is sterling company.
We've now seen Daboll's starting running back rank in the top three in routes run in back-to-back years. Couple that with Barkley, who is already receiving an elite target rate on his routes run, and it is a recipe for a top-five running back.
Barkley is currently being selected as the 26th player in drafts. One can assume that people are shying away from him because of his injury history. Not many people will recognize Daboll's running back utilization. In the third round, the league-winning upside is much too significant to pass up.
ADP prediction: Saquon Barkley will see a rise to the back of the 2nd round, but will still be undervalued.
Round 4: Michael Pittman
In 2021, from weeks 1 through 16, Michael Pittman finished the season as WR21 in total points scored and as WR28 in average points per game. He is currently being selected as the forty first player in drafts and WR15 overall. We saw Pittman receive a career-high 128 targets with Carson Wentz as his quarterback. Matt Ryan is now the Indianapolis Colts' quarterback, and Pittman should see more targets and higher quality targets. Pittman's 128 targets would justify his current ADP. To surpass it, though, he would need an increase in targets. An increase that he will likely see in 2022.
When studying team pass attempt percentages by different quarterbacks under Colts' Head Coach Frank Reich, it is apparent that he adjusts team pass attempt percentage based on individual skill:
- Andrew Luck (2018): 60.2 percent
- Phillip Rivers (2020): 53.5 percent
- Carson Wentz (2021): 49.5 percent
With Matt Ryan as the starting quarterback, the Colts' pass attempts should surpass Rivers' and Wentz's passing percentages. Additionally, the difference in the quality of throws between Ryan and Wentz is significant. In 2021 Ryan was ninth in on-target percentage throws while Wentz was 26th. Of all the wide receivers, Pittman was 55th in target accuracy with Carson Wentz. In Julio Jones, Russell Gage, and Kyle Pitts' most recent seasons with Ryan, none finished worse than fifteenth in target accuracy.
Pittman will be unchallenged by any other wide receiver or tight end on the Colts in 2022. Given the arrival of Matt Ryan, the increase in target volume, and the quality of targets, Pittman's current ADP is more than justified.
ADP prediction: Pittman's ADP will rise into the third round as training camp reports begin to circulate about his and Ryan's developing chemistry and a couple of good performances in the preseason.
Round 5: Travis Etienne
Travis Etienne going in the fifth round of drafts is by far the most significant error of player market value and is undoubtedly due for a substantial correction. James Robinson recovering from an Achilles injury, and while making a recovery, history tells us that the injury is debilitating even after recovery. Couple that with the explosiveness required to play the running back position, and it's difficult to see how Robinson returns to his prior form. Etienne will likely open the year as the RB1 on the Jacksonville Jaguars. His depressed ADP is a result of two factors. We have never seen him play a regular-season snap, and he is coming back from an injury. The sharp off-season drafters have been scooping him up everywhere because they know of his RB1 ceiling.
In college, Etienne was an absolute monster. He began producing as a pure rusher with a minimal receiving profile, but the receiving developed during the back half of his collegiate career. In Etienne's junior year, he rushed for 1614 yards and caught 37 of 38 targets for 432 yards, cracking over 2000 scrimmage yards and amassing 23 total touchdowns. A running back of Etienne's profile is exactly what fantasy drafters should be looking for when hoping to roster a top-five running back in the middle rounds of their drafts.
Etienne is also playing with Trevor Lawrence, his college quarterback that fed him 60 targets during their final year at Clemson. Footage of Etienne has recently been released of Etienne catching passes which will most certainly push his ADP up. If you’re drafting in June, consider Etienne an early Christmas present.
ADP prediction: As camps begin to get into full swing and preseason games start, expect to see Etienne being taken in the second round. Even then, he will still be undervalued.
Round 6: A.J. Dillon
A.J. Dillon is slated to finish the 2022 season as a high-end RB2 with RB1 upside. Dillon received 187 carries in 2021 and caught 34 receptions on 38 targets. He did not receive a snap share above 50 percent until Week 11 when Aaron Jones was out due to an injury. Dillon's on-field split before and after Jones' injury was as follows:
Prior Week 11:
- Average fantasy points per week: 8.6
- Average snap percentage: 35.1 percent
- Average attempts per game: 9.7
- Average targets per game: 1.8
Post Week 11:
- Average fantasy points per week: 11.7
- Average snap percentage: 48.6
- Average attempts per game: 13.2
- Average targets per game: 2.2
Dillon earned higher average fantasy production, snap share, weekly attempts, and targets per game after Week 11. All of the above stats indicate that the Packers intended to make him a primary part of the offense. He is likely to finish the 2022 season with over 250 touches as well. Considering that Dillon was targeted 38 times when he played limited snaps, he should see about 50 targets in 2022. When extrapolating Dillon’s post-Week 11 average attempts per game over an entire season, he would have had 216 total rushing attempts. The Packers have averaged 433 rush attempts over the past three years, so there is more than enough work for Dillion as a rusher.
He will now be entering his third year with the Packers with the earned trust of the coaching staff and, most importantly, Aaron Rodgers. The Packers' rush attempts per game should increase with Davante Adams now gone, and there being no stud WR1 for the passing game to flow through. Expect him to outproduce his 6th round draft cost and flirt with weekly RB1 production in 2022.
ADP predicition: With Aaron Jones still on the team, drafters won't be sharp to Dillon's potential. Dillon's ADP should remain stable up to the start of the season.
Round 7: Rashod Bateman
With Marquise Brown traded to the Arizona Cardinals, Rashod Bateman finds himself as the unquestioned WR1 on the Baltimore Ravens. While tight end Mark Andrews is the top receiving target, Brown has the skill to demand fantasy WR1 target volume in 2022. The only question is if the Ravens maintain their 2021 passing volume.
The Ravens' pass attempt percentage in 2021 was 56.37 percent (21st in the league), resulting in Marquise Brown finishing ninth in targets among wide receivers. In 2019 and 2020, the Ravens were last in team pass percentage, and Brown never eclipsed 100 targets in either of those years. An explanation as to why the Ravens had such an abnormal amount of pass attempts last year was that their pass defense was league-worst, which forced them to throw the ball more than they would like to.
The Ravens would need to find themselves upwards of 517 pass attempts in 2022 for Bateman to receive north of 100 targets. However, expectations should remain that the Ravens remain a sub-500 pass attempt team.
Bateman's talent offers a promising outlook for his career in the NFL. The environment in which he finds himself though caps his fantasy ceiling. Unless Bateman can be as efficient as A.J. Brown, it would be best to temper WR1 production for 2022.
ADP prediction: Bateman's cost should hold but will rise as the sheer volume of drafting begins to ramp up.
Round 8: Treylon Burks
Rookie wide receiver Treylon Burks was recently selected in the first round by the Tennessee Titans after they traded A.J. Brown to the Philadelphia Eagles. Burks now finds himself in an offensive environment similar to Rashod Bateman. The Titans have been one of the lowest passing volume teams in the league for the past several years, and there is little incentive to change that with A.J. Brown now gone. However, unlike Bateman, Burks will have little competition for targets. Robert Woods is recovering from an ACL injury he suffered in the middle of the 2021 season. While reports of Woods making a smooth recovery have emerged, at 30 years old, he'll be one of the older starting wide receivers in the league and is merely a possession receiver at this point in his career. Burks is a raw receiver, but he has the requisite skill set to be a productive weekly WR2 with WR1 upside.
Given the draft capital that the Titans have spent on Burks, it's safe to assume that he'll be consistently seeing the field in starting two-wide sets. Though 100 targets may be his ceiling during his rookie campaign, expect him to be a valuable contributor to your fantasy teams in 2022.
ADP prediction: Burks' ADP has taken a hit after rumblings of his asthma emerging during offseason workouts. Drafters are scared of the smallest things as was seen with JaMarr Chase's drop last preseason. Burks' ADP will not rise until we see strong preseason and positive training camp reports.
Round 9: Trey Lance
The appeal with Trey Lance comes with his athleticism and his rushing upside. Please do not get it mistaken; Trey Lance is a raw quarterback. But the fantasy production of underdeveloped rushing quarterbacks can be seen recently in Kyler Murray, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson during their first couple of years or in Jalen Hurts just last year. Each of these quarterbacks has averaged between six to 10 rush attempts per game over their careers.
In the two full games that Lance played last year, he had 16 and eight rush attempts. Lamar Jackson has averaged 10.6 rush attempts per game over his career. We may see Lance surpassing Jackson's average if not matched.
The San Francisco 49ers paid a hefty price to trade up in the 2021 NFL Draft to select Lance. Jimmy Garappolo is a serviceable quarterback but is more of a game manager, which hinders the dynamism of the offense. He is still on the team but will likely be traded before the season starts. Lance will rise in ADP as the regular season approaches, but he will probably still be selected before all of the other rushing quarterbacks previously mentioned. Be sure to pounce on him as he'll be a set-it and forget-it QB1 for your fantasy teams.
ADP prediction: Lance's ADP will remain in the ninth round until Garoppolo leaves the team. Once Garoppolo does leave, Lance's ADP should not rise past the sixth round.
Round 10: Allen Lazard
We can throw out all the advanced metrics when dealing with Aaron Rodgers. Because at the end of the day, it comes down to one thing. Trust. How much does Aaron Rodgers trust the other receivers on his team? A reflection of that trust can only be found in how often a Lazard has been on the field. Lazard has become more incorporated into the offense over the years. His snaps have increased from a median of 53 percent in 2019 to 79% in 2021. Additionally, he averaged four targets and eight fantasy points per game. Davante Adams and Marques Valdes-Scantling are no longer on the Packers, which will only raise Lazard's floor for fantasy production. Lazard only saw 19 percent of the Packer’s air yards in 2021.
With Adams and Valdes-Scanting gone, that leaves 58.6 percent of the team’s air yards up for grabs. If Lazard can grab a quarter of those available air yards, that would give him 33.65 percent of the team’s air yards. Other wide receivers with similar air yard percentages are Cooper Kupp, DeAndre Hopkins, Diontae Johnson, and Tee Higgins. Now pair that with the quality of those targets coming from a quarterback like Aaron Rodgers, and Lazard is very likely the most undervalued wide receiver in fantasy drafts this year. Be sure to draft him given his massive discount.
ADP prediction: The Packers drafted Christian Watson in the 2022 NFL Draft. While athletic, he is still underdeveloped. But with Watson came a reason for Lazard's doubters to shut the door on him. Lazard's ADP is going to most likely stay low until the fleeting moments of the offseason.