How Do Quarterbacks and Wide Receivers Perform On New Teams?

"The Decision" is deeply rooted in NBA history, but it was a cultural turning point for all professional sports. In a New Jersey Boys and Girls Club, on July 8, 2010, Lebron James changed the course of the NFL forever. The greatest quarterback in NFL history noted James's subsequent control over his career direction. The two GOATs of their respective sports have maintained a competitive friendship. A decade later, the ripples of a decade worth of NBA player empowerment hit the NFL hard with Tom Brady's relocation to Florida.

Much like James a decade before, Brady delivered a championship to Florida. Shortly following James in the NBA, a star departed the midwest to raise a west coast team. Kevin Durant's arrival on the Warriors accelerated NBA player movement. A year after Brady's move, the NFL duplicated course with Matthew Stafford's departure from the Detroit Lions to deliver a championship to the Los Angeles Rams. In back-to-back seasons the NFL Championship winning quarterback orchestrated moves from long-standing positions and unprecedented movement from players in that situation.

In 2022 the NFL hit hyper drive on player movement, mirroring the NBA. Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson moved to better team situations. While quarterbacks are the star attraction, the increased importance of the passing game has thrust wide receivers forward in team construction and created an explosion of contract values. Davante Adams and Marquise Brown teamed up with their college teammates Derek Carr and Kyler Murray. A.J. Brown and Jalen Hurts have a relationship that dates back to high school recruiting. These pairings followed a 2021 draft that saw college teammates Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase and Jaylen Waddle and Tua Tagovailoa reunite.

Players have gained power of movement. But is there an application for fantasy football?

Attacking The Year One Wide Receiver Narrative

"Avoid wide receivers with new teams." It has been a fantasy football mantra for decades, born out of the early days of free agency. Wide receivers like Alvin Harper and Yancey Thigpen saw their production plummet after switching teams in free agency. The cratering of Kenny Golladay after joining the Giants in 2021's free agency period lends further credence to the theory.

But evidence suggests that traded wide receivers are different.

Since 2018 the NFL has seen seven wide receivers traded for draft picks in the first two rounds: Brandin Cooks x2, Stefon Diggs, DeAndre Hopkins, Odell Beckham, Amari Cooper, and Mohamed Sanu. Sanu is a clear outlier; he was never a primary wide receiver, and the Patriots' transaction to acquire him was instantly one of Bill Belichick's worst moves.

How does that sample play out statistically? The results are eye-opening.

Overall, players saw an increase of 7.5 to 8.5 targets, improved their catch rates (61% to 68%), and increased yards per target (8.76 to 9.24).

Conceptually it makes sense. Players look to capitalize on the possible money in most free agency situations. And no one can blame them; often, the second contract is the only big contract players sign and their opportunity to get life-changing money. But most often, the teams in a position to offer those deals do so out of desperation. The structure players enter into these deals is not conducive to fantasy success.

A trade is a different story. These deals landed players on teams with young ascending quarterbacks looking to take another step in their development. The below chart illustrates the results: