Links to similar discussions:
A great source for evaluating players is comparing a player’s dynasty valuation with the redraft market. To do this, the Real Draft Position (RDP) for players over the past month is compared to the recent Underdog Average Draft Position (ADP). Players with a higher dynasty RDP than Underdog ADP are overvalued in the near term, while players with a higher Underdog ADP than Dynasty RDP are dynasty values, particularly later in dynasty drafts when longevity is less of a concern. This article focuses on wide receivers who are overvalued by Dynasty RDP compared to their Underdog ADP.
DeVonta Smith
DeVonta Smith had a successful rookie season, with 101 targets, 64 receptions, 96 yards, and five touchdowns. Even so, the Eagles had been upfront about their desire to upgrade the position and did so In a big way with the trade for A.J. Brown. The dynasty RDP has slid down to WR28 post-NFL Draft but has an Underdog ADP of WR34. Smith is WR40 in our projections, behind WR16 A.J. Brown, while projecting Jalen Hurts at QB25 in passing attempts 483. On low volume, Smith is a dangerous trajectory player at his dynasty cost.
Elijah Moore
Elijah Moore is priced ahead of Devonta Smith, with WR28 in dynasty RDP, but falls to WR31 in Underdog ADP. The Jets selected Garrett Wilson in the first round of the draft, who has an Underdog ADP of WR49. Much of the Jets’ offense was held back by Zach Wilson’s struggles as a rookie. If he can take a big step, there is plenty of room for Moore and Wilson to overperform expectations, but if he does not take a step forward, Moore’s dynasty stock could drop sharply.
Jaylen Waddle
Jaylen Waddle has an RDP of WR9 in Dynasty but is at WR15 in Underdog ADP. The addition of Tyreek Hill certainly hurts his potential volume, and our projections reflect this. Our projections have Tyreek Hill as WR9 and Waddle at WR22, well below his dynasty RDP. Waddle was highly productive as a rookie, but an offensive scheme change, the addition of Hill, and Tua Tagovailoa’s underwhelming performance as a passer to date create a headwind for his dynasty value heading into 2022.
Chris Godwin
Chris Godwin has a dynasty RDP of WR20, six spots ahead of his Underdog ADP at WR26. Godwin suffered a torn ACL at the end of 2021 in Week 15, so his status for the season will be a major watch. Tampa Bay has unwilling to project he is ready for training camp, creating doubt about his 2022 status. We project Godwin to play 15 games in 2022, and a WR20 finish.
A.J. Brown
Tennessee traded A.J. Brown to Philadelphia, which creates uncertainty about the Brown profile. Changing teams is typically a negative for wide receivers, but his Underdog ADP is WR11, which would be the best finish of his fantasy career. At a cost of WR7 in dynasty RDP, Brown is more of a floor projection than ceiling play, which is dangerous given his new circumstances and run-heavy projection.