The Guru and the Godfather: Week 6

Gary Davenport's The Guru and the Godfather: Week 6 Gary Davenport Published 10/14/2022

John "The Guru" Norton and Gary "The Godfather of IDP" Davenport are two of the most experienced and knowledgeable IDP analysts in the fantasy football industry. Every week during the 2022 season here at Footballguys, The Guru and the Godfather will come together to answer five of that week's most pressing questions.

With Week 6 of the 2022 campaign already here and the bye weeks upon us (no Maxx Crosby this week…sigh), the Guru and the Godfather have come together again to discuss some old faces in new places at linebacker, some players it's time to serve with divorce papers, and players who could be about to blow up (or just blow) this week.

1. A couple of familiar IDP names found new homes recently, with Blake Martinez signing with the Las Vegas Raiders and Deion Jones joining the Cleveland Browns via trade. Can either veteran linebacker recapture past glories and contribute for fantasy managers?

Guru: Both of these guys are good football players with plenty of gas in the tank. I am confident they will eventually get back to being the same players they once were. I am far less confident, however, that it will happen this season.

When Martinez made his preseason debut, I did not think he looked fully healthy. He was tentative, slow to react, and looked like a guy recovering/returning from a major injury. Even if he is physically healthy, I think he needs time to overcome the mental hurdles that are sometimes as tough as the physical ones.

I feel like Jones is probably ready both physically and mentally, but I can’t bring myself to trust the Browns. If they like Jacob Phillips and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah as much as they say, where is Jones going to find playing time? They were in major need of depth, but Jones is not a backup. My fear here is yet another time-share situation where three guys share two positions, and none of them are reliable IDP options.

Godfather: First off, any IDP pundit who says they know exactly how these situations are going to play out is either a soothsayer or full of it. Both are short on certainty. With that said, here's my take as things stand today.

As I told Footballguys' own Sigmund Bloom on The Audible Live this week, Jones has a clearer path to playing time than Martinez for one prevailing reason—Cleveland is (as evidenced by how rapidly this trade was made after getting gashed by Austin Ekeler and the Los Angeles Chargers) absolutely desperate to upgrade a run defense that has allowed over 200 yards in consecutive games. Jacob Phillips truthers don't want to hear this, but the youngster has been atrocious since entering the starting lineup. He's slow to react and takes bad angle after bad angle when he does. Once Jones is fully healthy and up to speed in Cleveland's defense, Phillips is going to turn back into a pumpkin.

The situation with Martinez is less clear. Divine Deablo hasn't been great for the Raiders, but he's been playing every down and making the defensive play calls. Denzel Perryman has missed time, and what few snaps Martinez saw in Week 6 came at his expense. I'm inclined to think that Deablo is the safer of the two incumbents, and given that Perryman was a Pro Bowler in 2021, Martinez may be little more than injury insurance. But the Raiders are a 1-4 time with a defense that ranks outside the top 20, so changes can't be ruled out. With the Raiders on bye in Week 6, if those changes are coming, we'll see them next week.

If you have the roster space, both have a resume that warrants at least a speculative pickup. But Jones is the preferred option—by a fair margin.

2. It can be hard to say goodbye, but identify one IDP at each position for whom it's time for fantasy managers to cut the cord and move on.

Guru: Aiden Hutchinson was supposed to be the next Nick Bosa type of player. When he blew up for three sacks and 26 fantasy points in week two, it looked like the was well on the way. Unfortunately, we have not heard from him since. In his other four games, Hutchinson has a total of 12 combined points. He may eventually live up to the draft status, but it often takes a year or two for young edge defenders to get their feet under them. I am moving on from Hutchinson in redraft formats.

Shaq Thompson played second fiddle to Luke Kuechly for a long time. After three solid seasons as the team’s lead linebacker, he finds himself playing second fiddle to Frankie Luvu. Maybe the coaching change will help, but the guy has put up four or fewer solo tackles in four of five games. There simply is not enough upside for me to keep hanging on.

Johnathan Abram rocked week one with nine tackles and three assists. Four games later, he ranks outside the top 50 defensive backs and is 10-3-0 over the last three games combined. There are too many better options out there.

Godfather: I should have seen the writing in the proverbial wall with Chandler Jones of the Raiders. Five of his 10.5 sacks last year came in the first game of the season. But I bought into the idea that playing opposite Maxx Crosby in Las Vegas could coax one more big year out of him. Five games and no sacks into the season, it's time to move on if another viable option is available—especially with the Raiders on bye this week.

It's a similar story with Arizona Cardinals linebacker Zaven Collins. Despite a miserable rookie season, we figured that things had to get better in 2022—especially with Isaiah Simmons moving to a "Star" role (don't get me started on that nonsense, either). But five games into the season, Collins is barely averaging six tackles a game and has that many solos in a game once. In shallower IDP formats especially, there are better options out there.

In the secondary, just about any defensive back who hasn't met expectations is puntable at the five-game mark—my patience tends to wear thin at that position. But it is with great sadness that I recommend Xavier McKinney of the Giants. The box snaps I thought would be there instead went to Julian Love, and McKinney barely ranks inside the top 100 defensive backs in scoring. If you haven't already cut bait, pour one out and do it.

3. Looking ahead to Week 6, which IDPs at each of the three main positions are going to exceed expectations, post beefy stat lines, and help lead fantasy managers to a much-needed win?

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Guru: The Steelers can’t run the ball, but they are not afraid to let the rookie wing it. That means a lot of pass-rush opportunities for Shaquil Barrett. I think he will be a difference-maker for his team and ours.

It’s hard to say what the future holds for Jacob Phillips. The Browns designated Deion Jones to return from IR, but it will take a minute for the newcomer to get up to speed. In the meantime, Phillips will continue as a three-down middle linebacker. This week’s matchup with the Patriots could be an excellent one for Phillips. New England will be playing a backup quarterback, which means a run-heavy offense.

Kwon Alexander may or may not have a full-time role once Quincy Williams returns from his ankle injury, but he should get at least one more game. I look for the Packers to unleash their two-headed rushing attack and make Alexander a busy man.

Two words for why Jordan Love makes this list for me, Mark Andrews. Love tends to draw a lot of coverage on opposing tight ends, and no one throws to that position more than the Ravens.

Godfather: I have been asked more than once of late "what's wrong" with Jacksonville Jaguars edge-rusher Josh Allen, who had a big game in Week 4 but disappeared in Weeks 3 and 5. This week at least, the answer to that question is nothing—Allen and the Jaguars face a Colts team that has allowed 21 sacks this season, and back in Week 2, Allen got home twice against Indianapolis.

While Pete Werner has been fantastic for IDP managers in 2022, fellow New Orleans Saints linebacker Demario Davis has been something of a disappointment. However, Davis has salvaged some fantasy value this year with a couple of A-Gap sacks, and there's a good chance he gets No. 3 this week against a Cincinnati team that has allowed 19 this season. The Bengals have also given up the most fantasy points to linebackers this season—if you're into that sort of thing.

Jayron Kearse was back on the field at safety for the Dallas Cowboys last week, but even with Kearse on the field, Donovan Wilson still led all Dallas safeties in snaps against the Rams. With the Cowboys traveling to face a high-powered Eagles offense that has given up the third-most fantasy points to safeties this season, expect plenty of three-safety looks—and fantasy points for Wilson.

4. Which big-name IDPs will likely fall flat and let down fantasy managers in Week 6?

Guru: Kansas City gave up a pair of sacks to Maxx Crosby last week, but that is the exception rather than the norm. The Chiefs have allowed one or no sacks in three of five games. Factor in that the Bills like to rotate a lot of guys at defensive end, and we should temper expectations for Greg Rousseau this week.

The Steelers can’t run the ball, and they have turned to their rookie at quarterback. That sounds like a lot of big plays for the Buccaneers' defense but not much sustained offense from Pittsburgh. Devin White and Lavonte Davis are both playmakers, but we should not expect a lot in the tackle columns.

Harrison Smith’s numbers have been way down over the last two games. I have no concern with his long-term prospects but the Dolphins might not be able to put up much of a fight this week with their third quarterback under center.

Godfather: As much as I have enjoyed watching Rousseau make me look good for talking him up all summer long, the Guru is spot-on—big games from pass-rushers against the Chiefs are much more exception than rule. Believe it or not, so is sacking Trevor Lawrence in 2022—the Jaguars quarterback has only been dropped six times all season long. The Jaguars give up enough fantasy points to defensive tackles to make Deforest Buckner of the Colts worth a look in Week 6, but Yannick Ngakoue's recent hot streak could hit a snag Sunday.

T.J. Edwards of the Philadelphia Eagles has been solid for IDP managers in 2022—he spent most of the first month of the season ranked among the top-10 fantasy linebackers before tailing off a bit of late. But it's not going to be easy for Edwards to post top-15 numbers Sunday night—no team in the NFL allows fewer fantasy points to defensive backs than the Cowboys.

Miami Dolphins safety Brandon Jones has seemingly been sent by the IDP Gods to punish us—he'll post a huge game, get slotted in lineups, and then his usage and production will go off a cliff. Don't take the bait after his latest outburst against the Jets in Week 5. The Vikings are dead last in the league in fantasy points surrendered to defensive backs.

5. For fantasy managers in an injury or bye week bind or saddled with those underperformers mentioned earlier, what are some solid matchup or sleeper IDP plays for Week 6?

Guru: Travon Walker has been rather quiet since going 3-1-1 in the opener. I like his chances of getting back in the sack column this week against a Colts team that is giving up an average of 4.2.

Keep an eye on the status of Mykal Walker, who is dealing with a hamstring injury. Walker did not practice on Thursday, pointing to the possibility of rookie Troy Andersen making his first NFL start. San Francisco is a plus matchup for linebackers, and Andersen would be stepping into a highly productive position.

Alex Singleton may not be a great NFL player, but when he plays, he puts up good numbers. With Josey Jewell likely sidelined, Singleton is set to be Denver’s every-down linebacker this week.

Tyrel Dodson was 7-4-1 as the replacement for an ailing Tremaine Edmunds (hamstring) last week. Edmunds was officially limited on Thursday. If he is inactive, Dodson could be a great stream play versus the Chiefs.

It’s hard to say for sure how the Panthers will play it this week. They could put Donte Jackson on the Rams’ number two receiver and double Cooper Kupp. Or they might have Jackson travel with Kupp. Even if it is some combination of the two, which is likely, Jackson is a solid play. If he does go with Kupp… the guy was targeted almost 20 times last week.

Ryan Neal quietly moved past Josh Jones on the depth chart last week. He is not getting much attention because six of his eight total tackles were assists. He might just as easily turn those numbers around or even better this week against Arizona. The matchup is strong, and Neal had a short but impressive sting as a starter back in 2020. He put up at least 12 points in all four games, with an average of 13.9

Godfather: I'll second Mr. Norton's call on Travon Walker this week against a Colts line that doesn't block so well. As a matter of fact, if you're in a deeper league and need a spot starter, I might even get nuts and start Roy Robertson-Harris.

At linebacker, Norton (I'd make a Honeymooners joke here, but John and I are the only geezers who would get it) already mentioned Kwon Alexander of the Jets, but he's available in enough leagues that I'll second it here. In each of the last two weeks, Alexander has played over 90 percent of the team's defensive snaps, and the Packers rank inside the top 10 in fantasy points allowed to linebackers this season.

In the secondary, Jordan Whitehead entered the 2022 season with a fair amount of hype after inking a free agent deal with the Jets in the offseason. But a lackluster start got him dropped in more IDP leagues than not. Week 6 could bring a mini-redemption tour—and value for fantasy managers who need a spot-start in the secondary. No team in the NFL has surrendered more fantasy points to safeties after five weeks this season than the dink-and-dunk Packers.

Photos provided by Imagn Images

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