The Guru and the Godfather: Week 12

John "The Guru" Norton and Gary "The Godfather of IDP" Davenport are two of the most experienced and knowledgeable IDP analysts in the fantasy football industry. Every week during the 2022 season here at Footballguys, The Guru and the Godfather will come together to answer five of that week's most pressing questions.

As we clear Thanksgiving and the playoff stretch run ramps up in IDP leagues, the Guru and the Godfather have come together to ponder on the latest surprise studs, offer some seasonal thanks for the biggest defensive values of 2022, and look ahead to a week that will make (or break) the season for many fantasy managers.

In recent weeks, we have seen a number of players like Jack Sanborn of the Bears and Kaden Elliss of the Saints go from IDP Zero to IDP Hero. Can they keep it up? Is there another player (or two) you think could follow the same trajectory? Is there a player you are concerned will do the opposite?

Guru: The Chicago defense is not good at this point so the organization might have a different opinion, but from what I see, the team may have a long-term solution in Sanborn. At the least, he is going to be the solution for the rest of this season, so there is no reason to think his numbers fall off.

After seeing Ellis in the starting role, I fully understand why he moved past Zach Baun on the depth chart this year. It was business as usual for the Saints’ defense in week eleven and business as usual for IDP managers that grabbed Ellis as a replacement for Pete Werner. It’s a small sampling, but Ellis looked good. With Werner’s recent ankle surgery, it looks like Ellis will be in the Saints lineup the rest of the way.

Rasul Douglas is a corner with a long history of good fantasy production when the situation allows. As the Packers’ nickel/slot corner, he gave us some good weeks and some bad ones through the first ten games. With the injury to Eric Stokes, Douglas becomes an every-down player, so we should get a lot more good ones the rest of the way.

Two other backup linebackers made the top ten in week eleven. Tyrel Dodson stood in for Tremaine Edmunds, and Krys Barnes has been seeing an increased role with DeVondre Campbell out. Dodson was replaced by A.J. Klein in Week 12, but with Edmunds and Campbell expected back soon, the IDP value of those fill-ins is hitting its expiration date.

Godfather: There's no reason to think that what Sanborn has done the past few weeks isn't sustainable, and it’s not like there's someone lurking behind him on the depth chart who could step in if he struggles a bit. Provided he stays healthy, Sanborn is the sort of late-season add that swings leagues. Elliss has been similarly productive, but since Pete Werner hasn't been relegated to injured reserve yet, there's some concern he'll come back at the worst possible time for IDP managers who have been relying on Elliss.

It's not easy to identify similar potential diamonds because the circumstances that create them are inherently unpredictable. However, there are a couple of safeties who have recently returned from injury in New England's Kyle Dugger and Carolina's Jeremy Chinn, who have fallen under the radar in some leagues. Both players are back in full-time roles, and both were highly regarded before the season for a reason.

Then there's Alex Singleton of the Broncos, who is going to either win folks a lot of IDP leagues or lose them. Singleton has piled up 20 stops the past two games despite not playing more than 65 percent of the snaps in either contest. That per-snap productivity is outstanding. That snap share feels like a clunker waiting to happen.

2. Since Thanksgiving was this week, which IDPs are you most thankful for in 2022?

Guru: I am a Bengals fan by birth and a Raiders fan by choice. Cincinnati is easy to watch right now, even with their ups and downs, but without having Maxx Crosby on some of my teams, it would be hard to stomach what Josh McDaniels has done to the Raiders.

I’m thankful for LJarius Sneed, who I have in almost all my ten IDP leagues. I expected good numbers from him, but he has exceeded those expectations by a large margin and is one of the few corners that can be counted on every week.

Last but not least, I’m thankful for Bobby Okereke, who I was counting on as a good LB3 but has been much better than that. I picked him up as a handcuff to Shaquille Leonard in a couple of leagues, which has proven to be a great move, and have him in a few other leagues as well. He has been an outstanding contributor to my success in those leagues.

Godfather: I'm no Raiders fan, but I'm in lockstep with Mr. Norton on Crosby. The tackle numbers. The sacks. The week-to-week consistency. What Crosby has accomplished this year is remarkable—even more so when you consider the lack of help around him. We're watching the birth of the next star edge-rusher—and it's been a badly-needed bright spot in a long year for Raider Nation.

There may not be an IDP I am more thankful for in 2022 than Carolina Panthers linebacker Frankie Luvu. It's not just the top-10 numbers in terms of points per game, although those are nice. Or the fact he was essentially free, which is even better. It's that watching Luvu play is just fun. Dude goes all-out from the first play to the last and attacks the ball like it insulted his mother.

Finally, I'm thankful for Simone Biles. Because apparently after watching his bae win all the gold medals ever, Houston Texans safety Jonathan Owens decided he needed to up his game. In 10 games this season, Owens has hit the 10-tackle mark seven times. He leads all defensive backs in solo tackles, and only Derwin James of the Chargers has more total tackles. That kind of production off the waiver wire is almost as tasty as my world-famous cheesy potatoes. Almost.

3. Looking ahead to Week 12, which IDPs at each of the three main positions are going to blast past expectations, rack up points and help propel fantasy managers to a big stretch-run win?

The Denver offense is completely out of sync, and it starts with an offensive line that is getting Russell Wilson killed every week. The Panthers have their own issues, but Brian Burns has been a silver lining in that cloud. He has eight sacks going into this week, and with Denver giving up almost three-and-a-half per game since week five, Burns could add a couple more to the till.

Germain Pratt is not an every-week starter for most managers, but I like him against the Titans. Tennessee has been a plus matchup for run-stuffing linebackers on most weeks, and Pratt is that guy for the Bengals.

Denzel Perryman is not playing in all the sub-packages, but that doesn’t stop him from posting good numbers every week. Seattle runs the ball well, but just as importantly, they don’t spread the field a lot, which means fewer nickel and dime packages and more snaps for Perryman.

After being called out a little by his coach, Devin White stepped up big time in his last appearance. He is not likely to match the 8-1-2 from week ten, but a great matchup with the Browns should help him come close.

Budda Baker’s role has changed in recent weeks. Early in the season, he was working as the deep safety or in a lot of two-deep looks. Recently, he has been seeing more action as a box safety, with Jalen Thompson getting most of the deep work. Add in a struggling Arizona team and a matchup with the Chargers, who have one of the league’s best rushing attacks, and we get what should be a great game for Baker.

Godfather: Cameron Heyward of the Pittsburgh Steelers isn't getting any younger. After posting a career-high 89 tackles and 10 sacks last year on the way to a DL3 finish, Heyward has just four sacks and ranks outside the top 20. This week Heyward faces Matt "The Statue" Ryan and a Colts team that has allowed an AFC-high 40 sacks in 2022. The 2021 Heyward makes an appearance in Week 12.

In my last set of preseason linebacker rankings here at Footballguys, I ranked David Long of the Tennessee Titans 24th. Depending on the scoring system, Long sits within a spot or two of that ranking. He's the Toyota Matrix of linebackers—not at all flashy, but dependable. This week that Matrix may do a burnout or two against a Bengals team that has allowed the most fantasy points per game to linebackers this season.

Heyward isn't the only big-name Steelers defender who hasn't lived up to his draft slot in 2022—Minkah Fitzpatrick has missed time with injury and has topped six tackles all of once since Week 1. But the same Colts who have allowed 40 sacks have also surrendered the fourth-most fantasy points per game to safeties this year. This could be a big week for the Steelers defense as a whole—and its pieces individually.

4. Which prominent IDPs are most likely to come up short and leave fantasy managers with indigestion when the dust settles from Week 12?

Guru: Myles Garrett is not a player that anyone should consider benching but he has a tough matchup this week. No one has given up fewer sacks than the Buccaneers and edge defenders generally post mediocre tackle totals against them.

Nick Bolton and Willie Gay Jr are a couple more guys that not many managers can afford to bench, but the Rams are a hot mess right now. They struggle to run the ball and will be rolling out a backup quarterback this week. Even the best players need opportunity and there may not be much if the Chiefs take control early as they should.

Mykal Walker has been a great option for us to this point but there is trouble brewing in paradise. Over the last two games, Walker has lost snaps to rookie upstart Troy Andersen. Walker’s snap total was down 25% last week and if the trend continues, he will see a little less action this week.

Jeremy Chinn is healthy and back in his starting role but the Broncos’ offense has meant lean production for safeties of late. Since week five, opponents have averaged fewer than six and a half solo stops and less than three and a half assists between all their safeties combined. Derwin James is the last safety to reach double-digit points against them, and that was in week six.

Godfather: Since the Guru went big with Garrett (as much as I'd like to disagree, numbers don't lie—and Tom Brady doesn't get sacked), I might as well swing for the Fences of Depression too. By his otherworldly standards, 2022 has been a down year for Aaron Donald. He has just five sacks and ranks outside the top 12 in fantasy points. Patrick Mahomes II isn't much easier to sack than Brady—he's gone down 17 times.

While I'm being morbidly depressing about Rams players, I might as well toss Bobby Wagner onto the pile too. Like Donald, Wagner's numbers are down compared to what we have come to expect—Wagner is supposed to be an elite LB1, not a so-so LB2. And like Donald, Wagner faces an uphill climb against a Chiefs team that has been a bottom-five matchup for linebackers in three of the past four seasons—including 29th in points per game allowed to the position in 2022.

Norton's Chinn-cerns are spot-on, but he's just one of a number of big-name safeties with bad matchups. That includes Kevin Byard of the Titans, who hasn't made the big plays this year that he has generally relied on for IDP production. Byard has just one interception this year, and while Joe Burrow has thrown eight this year, six of those picks came in two matchups with the Steelers. Kevin Byard does not play for the Steelers.

5. For fantasy managers in need of a spot starter or searching for a Black Friday bargain, who are some good matchup or sleeper IDP plays for Week 12?

Guru: Injuries have given us a lot of sleeper options this week. Starting up front, Carl Granderson has been playing well as a rotational guy for the Saints. He is 8-8-2 over the last three games, and injuries to Cameron Jordan, Marcus Davenport, and Payton Turner have Granderson set to start against San Francisco. This is a middle-of-the-road matchup, but the shortage of bodies ensures a healthy play share.

DeVondre Campbell is still not practicing, and Quay Walker is dealing with a sore shoulder. After going 6-6-1 last week, Krys Barnes is in line for the start versus Philadelphia. Barnes doesn't stay on the field in all situations, but he might just be the most productive two-down linebacker in the game right now, and the Eagles are a solid matchup.

The Broncos put Jonas Griffith on IR this week, so Alex Singleton is back in the lineup. He is coming off the field in some sub-packages but still put up quality numbers last week and has a great matchup with the Panthers.

Darrick Forrest had a couple of big games at the start of the season before being relegated to the third safety role. He made such an impact in that role that the Commanders had to get him back in the lineup. Last week they benched corner Danny Johnson, moved free safety Bobby McCain to corner, and inserted Forrest as a starting safety.

Godfather: In terms of paycheck vs. productivity, Frank Clark of the Chiefs might just be the most overpaid edge-rusher in the league. It's been a while since the 29-year-old was IDP-relevant with any consistency. But Clark is still the best defensive end Kansas City has against a Rams team starting a backup quarterback without its best wide receiver that was a fantasy bonanza for edge-rushers when they were whole.

I'm really not piling on the Rams. They are just…bad.

It's been an up-and-down year for Jets linebacker Quincy Williams—there have been big games. And missed games. And down games. There's a new reality dawning in IDP leagues. As the number of true every-down linebackers continues to shrink, fantasy managers are going to have to start putting at least some trust in guys who see a 65-75 percent snap share—especially when those linebackers draw a favorable matchup.. Williams has one this week with a Bears team that will rely on the run game even more than usual if Justin Fields is sidelined.

Green Bay Packers safety Adrian Amos has long been a better NFL player than IDP option, and 2022 is no different. But Amos has also been a player capable of hot streaks and big numbers in plus matchups. Over the past two weeks, Amos has 19 tackles and a sack—production that slots him inside the top-five safeties over that span. Throw in a top-five matchup for his position with the Eagles, and there's potential for DB1 production available for free.