The Gut Check No.586: The No Thanks Dynasty List

Photo: USA Today Sports

About The No Thanks Dynasty LIst

I hate to say "never" with players because it's wise to leave room for the unexpected to occur. Terry McLaurin is an excellent example.

We're often playing the odds in fantasy football or even with NFL scouting. McLaurin lacks the baseline techniques of a reliable NFL pass catcher. It may have worked for him at Ohio State but when projecting receivers to the NFL, very few receivers have delivered consistent production at the level of a fantasy starter with the technically unsound methods McLaurin uses to catch targets.

During the 18 years that I've been studying receivers and tight ends for the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, the players who delivered starter production for multiple years with unsound technique as their baseline approach to catching the football is a small list relative to the hundreds of players I've graded:

• Golden Tate
• Ted Ginn Jr
• McLaurin

That's essentially the list. D.J. Chark might make this list soon, but his techniques have improved enough that he may not qualify. Early Doucet comes to mind, but he had a 689-yard, 5-touchdown season as his peak production, which doesn't qualify either.

The point is that there will always be players who prove they are exceptional cases who overcome significant flaws, mature beyond current expectations, or find a perfect fit for their limited skills and become productive. Some of them may appear on this list of players below who I won't be drafting or acquiring for my dynasty teams unless they are low-cost waiver additions who I can use as bye-week or injury substitutes.

Let's get to the list.

Quarterbacks

Malik Willis: I don't think it would have been fair to expect Willis to take Ryan Tannehill's job while Tannehill was hurt. At the same time, it would have been nice to see more from Willis as a passer. Well, at least if you had bought into the buzz on Willis. He's a great athlete with the physical tools of an elite thrower and runner but the idea of Willis following in the footsteps of Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson underestimates the baseline skills these two quarterbacks brought to the NFL before they refined their games.

Odds are high that Willis will earn a tryout as a starter after Tannehill leaves town or even during Tannehill's final year in Tennessee so the Titans can return to Tannehill if Willis struggles. When Willis gets this extended opportunity, I have difficulty expecting him to develop the pocket movement, coverage manipulation tools, and high-end processing of the field that's commensurate with top quarterbacks.

Players like Drew Lock, Baker Mayfield, Zach Wilson, Paxton Lynch, and Mitchell Trubisky all possessed a higher baseline with these conceptual skills than Willis, and none of them could reach the level expected of a consistent NFL starter. It's too much to overcome.

Unless Willis shows clear progress with the baseline level of quarterbacking from the pocket that all quarterbacks must have, I'll be hoping he has 1-3 games of strong production that glosses over his flaws so I can trade him at what I expect will be a peak point of his value.

Zach Wilson: I don't know if Wilson not understanding that he should take the blame from the media after a loss is a lasting sign of immaturity that will limit his ceiling, but the NFL can be unforgiving of this kind of behavior. Will Grier was a second-round pick with some decent tools. He didn't prepare as he should, and it led to the Panthers concluding that Grier lacked the maturity to become a starter.

Even if Wilson's PR error isn't a career-killer for him as a starter, his play demonstrates that he doesn't see the field well, his footwork and resulting accuracy are sloppy, and his decision-making has severe lapses of maturity. Mike White has always been an intriguing passer with journeyman potential, but that never made him a starter candidate. He's significantly better than Wilson right now.

Wilson has done nothing but confirm my concerns about him as a prospect, and the Jets are too promising to saddle their team with this reserve-level prospect as its faux-franchise designation. It would be a shame to his current teammates.

Wilson was a big fish in a college pound who got gassed up as a top player but never had to work beyond his limitations to earn his draft buzz. His PR gaffe is a reflection of a player who believed his news clippings more than his bad tape. He probably didn't even know his tape was bad. A lot of people who scouted him didn't.