Fantasy Overview - Week 2

Week 1 of the 2022 NFL season has come and gone. It's important to take note of different storylines and situations, but it's also important not to overreact to some of these circumstances and occurrences. Let's dig deep and try to decipher some clarity in this wonderful hobby of ours.

Chasing points is real and it's a slippery slope. We've all done it. Player X has a huge week (on your bench), so you do what any self-respecting fantasy enthusiast would do, you start him the next week and he is a disappointment. So now you've lost out on the first week of success and you followed it up with a dud in the second week. What do you do in the third week? We've all been there. Every single one of us. That's the downside of chasing points. The upside of course is racking up the points each week. How can you predict those who will have a successful outcome and those who won't? It's tricky, but there are signs, triggers, and factors. I'll get to that...

Don't worry too much about Week 1 failures. Some teams take some time to right the ship, figure out their blocking schemes, find the right mix of personnel to handle an assignment, the right coaching decisions, play the right opponent, get a healthy player back, etc. Take a look at last year, for example...

• Buffalo lost to Pittsburgh, and Josh Allen had but one touchdown.
• Justin Herbert had over 300 yards passing but only one touchdown and finished outside the Top 20 that week.
• Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay had that surprising Week 1 loss to the Saints 38-3. He had zero touchdowns and two interceptions.
• Austin Ekeler, Leonard Fournette, and Derrick Henry all finished outside of the Top 25 in Week 1. In the next five games, Henry went on to score 10 touchdowns with five straight 100-yard games.
• Justin Jefferson had 5 catches for 71 yards, but he failed to score. He finished WR44 in Week 1. Davante Adams was even worse with 5 catches for 56 yards.

The same can be said for players who had a surprisingly productive Week 1. There may be something there, but then again, it may be a ruse. How do you know the difference? There are more wide receivers on the field than any other position, which means more receivers have a chance to finish high in the ranks and vice versa, more receivers have a chance to finish lower. Don't overreact, especially at wide receiver. Here is a list of ten factors you should look at to grasp a player's fantasy value or worth when aiming at the rest of the season.

1. Observe snap counts and snap percentages. How often were they on the field?
2. Examine the depth chart around them. Is there an opening for this player to thrive moving forward?
3. What are players or coaches saying about this player?
4. Did an injury open the door for more involvement?
5. Was a particular matchup the main reason for their success or failure?
6. Did their points come in garbage time? Will this be a commonality with his team?
7. Did their production come from one or two big plays?
8. How many red-zone targets did they have?
9. What was their target share% compared to the rest of the team?
10. Was their fantasy production touchdown-dependent, or were they consistent throughout the game?

Sometimes it's just a feeling...Titans rookie fifth-round wide receiver from UCLA, Kyle Philips, had a very impressive Week 1. Despite only playing 46% of the team's offensive snaps, he led the team with a 29% team target share, catching 6 passes for 66 yards on 9 targets. Tennessee is a run-first team led by Derrick Henry, but it looks like Philips may be a key piece of the offense if he continues to find success when he's on the field.

Which fringe players who had success in Week 1 are contenders and who are pretenders?

CONTENDERS

• Curtis Samuel WR, Washington - We've seen Curtis Samuel have success in the league in the past, finishing as a top 30 wide receiver with Carolina in 2020. In his first year with Washington, Samuel suffered a rather severe groin injury that lingered all season. It didn't help matters that he tried to return too soon and re-injured it, thus killing his season. We know Samuel is a dual-threat weapon on offense, and we also know the NFL is a copy-cat league. Could Samuel be the next Cordarrelle Patterson/Deebo Samuel? It's looking like Washington will utilize him in such a manner. He had 8 catches for 55 yards on 11 targets plus 4 rushes for 17 yards. He also scored a touchdown. Samuel has a nose for the end zone, scoring 20 touchdowns in 59 career games. That's not too shabby of a young career for a player who was all but forgotten until last week.
• Jamaal Williams RB, Detroit - The top running back role in Detroit is DAndre Swift. However, Jamaal Williams will occupy a role and still be a viable option for your roster. He scored two goal-line touchdowns in Week 1 when it could've been Swift getting the call. Williams has shown that he can be a trusted, reliable source for the Lions. To see him punch the ticket twice when the team needed scores is a good sign for his involvement this season. Plus, an injury to Swift and Williams becomes a clear fantasy option.
• Darrell Henderson RB, Los Angeles - Cam Akers struggled to gain any footing in the Week 1 loss to the Bills. He was swallowed up before he even try to make a difference. in the same breath, Darrell Henderson thrived, rushing 13 times for 47 yards with 5 catches for 26 yards. Henderson appears to have the upper hand for the Rams' ground game at the moment. If Akers can't turn it around soon, Henderson could run away with the top rushing role.

PRETENDERS

• Devin Duvernay WR, Baltimore - If you looked at Duvernay's line of 4 catches for 52 yards and 2 touchdowns, you might think he could be someone to target as a waiver claim, but I am not sure if he can be a consistent option in the receiving corps. Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman lead Baltimore, plus Isaiah Likely and Demarcus Robinson are also in the picture. All three of Duvernay, Likely, and Robinson had a 14% team target share. Duvernay caught all four of his targets and scored twice. Can we expect him to be an anchor in the offense? I'm thinking, no. There are too many other options who are getting looks for him to see consistent success week in and week out. This is not the droid you're looking for - move along.
• O.J. Howard TE, Houston - Houston was O.J. Howard's third team this preseason. He failed to catch on with Buffalo and Cincinnati, but his remarkable agent landed him a spot on Houston. Howard played 17% of the team's snaps in Week 1 and managed two catches, both touchdowns. He may be a red zone magnet for Houston, but those two scores may wind up being the highlight of his season. I don't see him as a consistent option in the Texans' offense.
• DeAndre Carter WR, Los Angeles (Chargers) - The Chargers were dealt a tough blow when Keenan Allen left the Week 1 game with a hamstring strain. Justin Herbert didn't latch on to any particular receiver and instead threw the ball to the open man and spread the ball around. Seven different players had four targets or more, and none had more than four. Mike Williams and Josh Palmer failed to make a difference in this game, but Carter did, scoring the only touchdown in the wide receiver corps. Don't expect Carter to become a consistent option in Los Angeles. This will be one of those Week 1 wonders that fails to produce much moving forward.

THE SKY IS NOT FALLING, BUT WE NEED TO READ THE TEA LEAVES IN SOME SITUATIONS

Don't give up on players who have shown success in the past and may have struggled in Week 1. Each week is different, and some teams and players take time to get going. At the same time, we have to realize that in some instances, expectations and reality may not be equal.

Allen Robinson WR, Los Angeles (Rams) - The Rams were led by Cooper Kupp and his 37% team target share. Tyler Higbee was second on the team with 27%. Allen Robinson was on the field for 97% of the team's offensive snaps and ran a route on 96% of those snaps. His team target share was a paltry 5%. He got open and deserved to see some balls thrown his way, but Matthew Stafford was too busy exploiting the Bills' zone coverage with passes to Kupp and Higbee. We'll see how things progress this week against Atlanta, but Robinson's first week was not too impressive.

Travis Etienne RB, Jacksonville - James Robinson is alive and well after recovering from an Achilles tear. So far, he is bucking the trend of running backs who have performed poorly after such an injury. Etienne and Robinson split snaps at 51/49 in favor of Etienne. However, Robinson had 61% of the team's carries while Etienne managed only 22% or four total carries. Etienne managed 47 yards on those four carries and added two receptions for 18 yards. It may be a split backfield in Jacksonville unless an injury presents itself. Etienne is a capable dual-threat weapon, but he doesn't appear to be the workhorse back we thought we might see. Robinson coming back strong is the big reason why.

Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller, Las Vegas - Davante Adams had a commanding 49% team target share in Week 1 against the Chargers. Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller got some scraps with six targets each but Derek Carr was interested in only Adams as his top option. Renfrow is coming off a season where he nearly had 100 catches, 1,000 yards, and 10 touchdowns. At some point, Carr will have to look elsewhere. His other top options, Renfrow and Waller, are next in line for targets. Once Adams comes back to earth, We'll see more balance in the offense.

Christian McCaffrey and D.J. Moore, Carolina - A touchdown saved McCaffrey's week. Otherwise, he would've had a dismal fantasy week under PPR points. Baker Mayfield nearly pulled out a late game come-from-behind victor if not for a 58-yard field goal by Browns rookie kicker Cade York. Mayfield looked decent in the second half and connected with Robbie Anderson for a long 75-yard touchdown. McCaffrey and Moore should see plenty of looks in this offense despite being on the low end of fantasy production in Week 1.

Adam Thielen WR, Minnesota - Week 1 was Justin Jefferson's day, and Kirk Cousins continued to go to his top receiver. Adam Thielen was on the field for 95% of the team's offensive snaps but managed only 13% team target share, finishing with 3 catches for 36 yards. Better results are ahead for the veteran receiver. Let's not forget, Thielen had 39 touchdowns in the last four years. The Vikings' offense is on the verge of being one of the best in the NFL. Thielen will have plenty of good days ahead.

A FEW TIDBITS WORTH NOTING

Players who scored with 4 targets or less

• 2 Devin Duvernay, BAL
• 2 O.J. Howard, HOU
• 1 Isaiah McKenzie, BUF
• 1 Terry McLaurin, WAS
• 1 Chris Myarick, NYG
• 1 Colby Parkinson, SEA
• 1 Dante Pettis, CHI
• 1 Sterling Shepard, NYG
• 1 Equanimeous St. Brown, CHI
• 1 Taysom Hill, NO
• 1 Jody Fortson, KC
• 1 Gerald Everett, LAC
• 1 Zach Ertz, ARI
• 1 Will Dissly, SEA
• 1 DeAndre Carter, LAC

15+ PPR points without a touchdown

• 25.5 A.J. Brown, PHI
• 21.8 Javonte Williams, DEN
• 21.5 Joe Mixon, CIN
• 20.0 Antonio Gibson, WAS
• 18.4 Jarvis Landry, NO
• 18.0 Tyreek Hill, MIA
• 17.7 Christian Kirk, JAC
• 17.0 Michael Carter, NYJ
• 15.7 Leonard Fournette, TB
• 15.3 Nick Chubb, CLE
• 15.2 Brandin Cooks, HOU

TOP DEFENSES

Defenses with 5+ sacks

• 7 BUF
• 7 PIT
• 6 LAC
• 5 TEN

Defenses who allowed 15 points or less (all from the AFC).

• 3 TB
• 7 MIN, MIA
• 10 BUF, CHI

Defenses with 2+ interceptions

• 4 PIT
• 3 BUF, LAC
• 2 JAC, LAR

Questions, comments, and suggestions are always welcome. Hit me up on Twitter.

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