Week 1 of the 2022 NFL season has come and gone. It's important to take note of different storylines and situations, but it's also important not to overreact to some of these circumstances and occurrences. Let's dig deep and try to decipher some clarity in this wonderful hobby of ours.
Chasing points is real and it's a slippery slope. We've all done it. Player X has a huge week (on your bench), so you do what any self-respecting fantasy enthusiast would do, you start him the next week and he is a disappointment. So now you've lost out on the first week of success and you followed it up with a dud in the second week. What do you do in the third week? We've all been there. Every single one of us. That's the downside of chasing points. The upside of course is racking up the points each week. How can you predict those who will have a successful outcome and those who won't? It's tricky, but there are signs, triggers, and factors. I'll get to that...
Don't worry too much about Week 1 failures. Some teams take some time to right the ship, figure out their blocking schemes, find the right mix of personnel to handle an assignment, the right coaching decisions, play the right opponent, get a healthy player back, etc. Take a look at last year, for example...
- Buffalo lost to Pittsburgh, and Josh Allen had but one touchdown.
- Justin Herbert had over 300 yards passing but only one touchdown and finished outside the Top 20 that week.
- Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay had that surprising Week 1 loss to the Saints 38-3. He had zero touchdowns and two interceptions.
- Austin Ekeler, Leonard Fournette, and Derrick Henry all finished outside of the Top 25 in Week 1. In the next five games, Henry went on to score 10 touchdowns with five straight 100-yard games.
- Justin Jefferson had 5 catches for 71 yards, but he failed to score. He finished WR44 in Week 1. Davante Adams was even worse with 5 catches for 56 yards.
The same can be said for players who had a surprisingly productive Week 1. There may be something there, but then again, it may be a ruse. How do you know the difference? There are more wide receivers on the field than any other position, which means more receivers have a chance to finish high in the ranks and vice versa, more receivers have a chance to finish lower. Don't overreact, especially at wide receiver. Here is a list of ten factors you should look at to grasp a player's fantasy value or worth when aiming at the rest of the season.
- Observe snap counts and snap percentages. How often were they on the field?
- Examine the depth chart around them. Is there an opening for this player to thrive moving forward?
- What are players or coaches saying about this player?
- Did an injury open the door for more involvement?
- Was a particular matchup the main reason for their success or failure?
- Did their points come in garbage time? Will this be a commonality with his team?
- Did their production come from one or two big plays?
- How many red-zone targets did they have?
- What was their target share% compared to the rest of the team?
- Was their fantasy production touchdown-dependent, or were they consistent throughout the game?
Sometimes it's just a feeling...Titans rookie fifth-round wide receiver from UCLA, Kyle Philips, had a very impressive Week 1. Despite only playing 46% of the team's offensive snaps, he led the team with a 29% team target share, catching 6 passes for 66 yards on 9 targets. Tennessee is a run-first team led by Derrick Henry, but it looks like Philips may be a key piece of the offense if he continues to find success when he's on the field.
Which fringe players who had success in Week 1 are contenders and who are pretenders?
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