Saturday Slate Strategy- Approaching a Two-Game Slate
2 game slates are always difficult and are almost never advisable for cash games, so this article is going to take a GPP focus on breaking down the two-game slate for Saturday January 7th.
The challenge with a two-game slate is that the risk of overlap is even greater than a showdown contest, so you really need to assess your playing style. In terms of expected value, you’re almost always going to get a higher expected return of value with the minimal amount of overlap compared to your competition, as the higher you score, the greater upside you’ll have with a unique or semi-unique lineup. Going with a unique build can often come with its own risks however, as there are smart unique builds and then there are ones that simply are taking on too much risk. One suggestion is to intentionally underspend of $500-$1,000 can be smart as many optimizers and casual players will want to fill their salary to the maximum spend. Going beyond that $500-$1,000 range on most slates will often mean that the upside you get from additional uniqueness is likely not worth it, as most of the time you’ll find unique lineups by leaving that $500-$1,000 salary especially if you’re not taking all chalk. Remember, you can’t guarantee uniqueness in a mass-multi entry contest, and you also can’t be extra unique, so leave a little bit on the table while also potentially fading
One additional thing to consider on a two-game slate is the smaller GPP’s or even the single-entry contests. Playing in something such as a 100-person tournament may not have the life changing upside, but it can be good to balance your lineups especially if you’re typically a cash game type player. In these types of contests, you really shouldn’t need to worry too much about uniqueness at all as in a 100-person sample size while it is possible to have overlap, it is unlikely especially if you do something as simple as leave $300-$500 on the table or just avoid one of the highest rostered players.
On a two-game slate while stacking for correlation is important, doing a complete game stack is something that often is not advisable. There will be a somewhat sizable amount of people who will take every player on their roster from this Chiefs/Raiders game and only fill in a defense from the Titans and Jaguars. The problem here is that the way a game stack works is you’re really hoping for 60+ points in a game and on an average week, there often times are at least one game that hits that mark, but on a two-game slate, what you really need is almost every touchdown between the two games simply because there are less options and more ways to cover all of your bases.
Key Injuries
- Derek Carr will not start for the Raiders this week as Jarrett Stidham will once again get the start. Stidham looked great last week against the 49ers in a game that the Raiders put up 34 points against arguably the league’s best defense.
- Josh Jacobs is questionable this week with a hip injury as he did not practice Wednesday or Thursday. Jacobs is likely to at least get some playing time to ensure that he wins the rushing title for the Raiders as he has a 160 yard lead over Nick Chubb and a 179 yard lead over Derrick Henry. The real question will be whether he sees the full compliment of snaps as Jacobs is a pending free agent and whether the Raiders give Zamir White or other running backs a chance in Week 18 remains to be seen.
- Trevor Lawrence is questionable on this slate, but it’s unlikely that this is anything to worry about here. If anything, having a toe injury will likely only force him to stay in the pocket as most of his value is going to come from trying to put up a performance like he did last time against the Titans in which he threw for 368 yards and 3 touchdowns in Week 14.
Quarterback
The quarterback position is an interesting one this week, as we really have two players to consider. On both FanDuel and DraftKings, Patrick Mahomes II is going to be the most popular play, but
In a must-win game for the Jaguars, they take on arguably the biggest funnel defense in the NFL. A funnel defense is essentially one that is really good at one aspect and struggles in another aspect of the game. So, in the Titans case, they have one of the best run-stopping units in the NFL and held Travis Etienne to just 32 yards on 17 carries back in Week 14, but their pass defense is one of the worst in the NFL as they have allowed the most passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks this season (295). With Travis Etienne in a very difficult matchup, the Jaguars will look towards Lawrence to carry them into the playoffs. Lawrence has more risk compared to a player such as Mahomes, as Lawrence has not thrown for a passing touchdown over his last two games and has not topped 230 yards, but those were both games in which the Jaguars had completely in control as they won by an average of 22 points.
Mahomes is in a great spot this week as well, but the challenge with him is that he for the most popular player on this slate, he is also the most expensive. Mahomes has dominated the Raiders throughout his history, as earlier this season he threw for 292 yards and 4 touchdowns, while last season he had a 406 yard 5 touchdown performance. The Raiders’ defense is one of the worst in the NFL against both the pass and the run, and while Mahomes has more upside than just about anyone on this slate, there is a slight risk that the Chiefs could control this game on the ground unless Jarret Stidham is able to re-create his performance last week.
Stidham is interesting simply because he is cheap and he’s going to be significantly less popular than the aforementioned Lawrence and Mahomes. Last week, Stidham seemingly did the unthinkable throwing for 365 yards and 3 touchdowns against the strong 49ers defense. If he is able to do that, could he do it against a Chiefs defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks? Stidham also showed a rushing ability that previously was largely unknown as he ran for 34 yards last week when he had not rushed for more than 176 yards in any season which was during his time at Auburn in 2017. Stidham locked onto Davante Adams as the two connected for 153 yards and 2 touchdowns last week and could easily be a stacking pairing this week again, but the risk is certainly well-known as Stidham was not on anyone’s radar heading into last week. Stidham is priced up a little bit as the discount compared to Trevor Lawrence isn’t necessarily where we entirely want it to be, but he is a way to get different as well as being able to build a roster that has studs loaded throughout the roster.
Running Back
While Derrick Henry is going to be popular this week as he is projected to be about 50% rostered, he is likely worth it simply based on the productivity and upside that he has compared to no other player at the position. Henry has been outstanding as of late as he has topped 125 yards in each of his last three games scoring a touchdown in all three of those contests. One of those games included a Week 14 matchup against the Jaguars in which Henry had 121 yards rushing with a touchdown, and also added an additional 34 yards receiving. Henry should be well rested as the team elected to sit him last week knowing that this was a must win game in order to make the playoffs. Joshua Dobbs is starting at quarterback once again for the Titans which Dobbs looked significantly better than Malik Willis last week, and should be able to move the ball enough for Henry to once again have a big opportunity this week. The Jaguars’ run defense has been strong this season, allowing just 81 yards rushing to opposing running backs, but have allowed three big games to Henry, Miles Sanders, and Saquon Barkley this season.
There is a bias against players such as McKinnon where they are primarily receiving backs as there is a perception that their recent production is not as sustainable or predictable based on the lack of number of touches compared to a traditional running back. In the case of McKinnon, while he is just averaging 7.5 touches over the last two weeks, this is a player who has 8 touchdowns over his last 5 games and has become the primary red zone threat for the Chiefs and is also averaging 5 receptions per game over the last five games. While $6,300 is a tough price to swallow, it will likely bring his roster percentage under 30% this week which on a two game slate is something that you’re going to want to target. McKinnon has 15 red zone targets or carries over the last five weeks which no other player on the Chiefs has more than 9.
Prior to last week, Isiah Pacheco was consistent in his number of touches as he had 15 or 16 touches in 6 of his prior 7 games with the only game that he didn’t have 15 or 16 he had 22 touches. Pacheco is facing a Raiders defense that are coming off of allowing 27 or more DraftKings points to opposing running backs in two of their last three games as Christian McCaffrey and Rhamondre Stevenson both had monster games against this Raiders defense. The Raiders linebackers have completely fallen apart as they are without Denzel Perryman, Divine Deablo, Darien Butler, and Jayon Brown who they have lost due to injury this season. The Raiders are starting Harvey Langi and undrafted rookie Luke Masterson who have struggled mightily.
If we get reports that Josh Jacobs is out. Zamir White will need to be 100% rostered.
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Travis Etienne-
Travis Etienne is currently projected to be the highest rostered player this week, above 50%. Etienne has largely been boom or bust this season as while he has been great the last three weeks topping 100-yards or more in each of those games. Etienne in the four weeks prior averaged just 43.5 yards in those games. Etienne is a great player, so we are really nitpicking when choosing to fade him, but at 50%+ he’s a difficult decision. Etienne has scored just one touchdown over his last seven games and is facing arguably the best run defense in the NFL as the Titans have allowed justone running back to top 60 rushing yards since Week 3.
Wide Receiver
If you can afford Adams, he is the top play on this slate as he has by far the most upside coming off of a 153-yard 2 touchdown performance last week with Jarrett Stidham at quarterback. With Josh Jacobs banged up, the Raiders are likely going to turn more to the passing game in a favorable matchup against the Chiefs. Adams tore apart this Chiefs defense as he had 124 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Chiefs back in Week 5. The Chiefs have allowed 6 wide receivers to have 28 or more DraftKings points this season and no wide receiver has as close to the upside of Adams on this slate.
Zay Jones has struggled the last two weeks, but he is a player who when Trevor Lawrence has played well, Zay Jones has had a great game. Prior to the last two weeks in which the entire Jaguars passing offense struggled, Jones had 75 yards or more in three of his last four games including a 21.7 performance against the Titans in which he had 12 targets. Jones has six games this season where he has 10 or more targets and to get a player who is just $5,000 on DraftKings and $6,600 on FanDuel he is cheaper than he should be. He should be a must stack if you’re playing Trevor Lawrence this week.
Once you get beyond Jones and Adams, the wide receiver position gets incredibly dicey. Burks is dealing with a groin injury, so you should monitor this status prior to the game. The Titans offense has been so incredibly shaky this season as they have been rolling out Malik Willis and an injured Ryan Tannehill this season while Burks has been dealing with his own injuries. However, at $4,200 on DraftKings, you’re getting a player who is coming off of an 8 target performance against the Cowboys last week and has six or more targets in four of his last five non-Malik Willis games. He is the top wide receiver in Tennessee and in a must-win game they’re going to need to have some success throwing the ball this week.
Picking a Chiefs wide receiver is one of the most difficult things in fantasy football. Most of the field is going to be targeting Marquez Valdes-Scantling based on him seeing 83% of the snaps last week, but Valdes-Scantling has been the receiver who has seen the most snaps this season and has yet to really produce. Meanwhile, Toney has just started to see his role emerge as he was on the field for 32% of the snaps last week. In those snaps, Toney saw 4 targets for 71 yards, and if there is a player who could see an increase in his role heading into the playoffs it could be Toney. Toney will have a significantly lower roster percentage compared to both Valdes-Scantling and JuJu Smith-Schuster and may be the most talented receiver amongst the group.
Other Wide Receivers to Target
- Mack Hollins
- JuJu Smith-Schuster
- Marvin Jones
- Robert Woods
Tight End
At the tight end position this week, it really comes down to either Travis Kelce or Evan Engram as they will garner a combined 90%+ roster percentage between the two of them. The choice here this week is really going to boil down to whether you want to start Davante Adams/Derrick Henry or Travis Kelce. The answer for me this week is pretty simple, that Kelce just has not been the Travis Kelce that we have all become accustomed to as he has failed to score a touchdown in five games, has just two 100-yard games over his last six contests, and has been outscored by Evan Engram since Week 12. Kelce does not have a red zone target over the last three weeks and just two over his last five games. Kelce could certainly be a key piece that is absolutely needed in order to win this week, but so could Adams/Henry and I’m more comfortable between those two players.