24 Overrated Running Backs

Footballguys Staff's 24 Overrated Running Backs Footballguys Staff Published 06/30/2022

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The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. These are players that will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out these players, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should underperform their draft position.

Here are the players who received the most votes:

And here are all of the players mentioned and the reasons why.

Player Receiving 5 Votes

Alvin Kamara, New Orleans

Gary Davenport: When he's healthy and on the field, there's no doubt that Kamara is an elite fantasy running back—his lowest fantasy finish over the past five seasons in PPR points per game is eighth, and the 26-year-old has cracked the top-five three times. But that per-game upside comes with a major caveat in 2022, as Kamara is all but certainly staring at a six-game suspension related to offseason assault charges in Las Vegas. Now, it can be argued that half a season(ish) of Kamara's dual-threat ability and weekly upside is worth more than a full year from a lot of other backs. But Kamara is all but certainly going to miss a big chunk of the fantasy regular season. There's a point where I'm willing to take on the gamble that I can survive that absence without flushing my season. But the middle of Round 2 ain't it.

Jeff Haseley: With rumors foretelling a possible six-game suspension, Alvin Kamara is dropping down the ranks, but without a clear message from the league, people are still selecting him at a discounted draft spot. But is it far enough? Likely not.

Dave Kluge: Kamara is likely to start the season suspended. There’s the chance that he will miss the entire year. Despite that, fantasy managers are still drafting him as a top-10 running back in the early second round. With Aaron Jones, Leonard Fournette, and Saquon Barkley being drafted behind him, there’s no reason to assume the risk in Kamara’s suspension. Until we get clarity on his legal issues, I wouldn’t even consider taking him until the fourth or fifth round.

Ryan Weisse: At this point, everyone has already mentioned the possible six-game suspension. That alone should keep him from being a top-10 running back and going in the 2nd or 3rd Round of your draft. However, I'll add two concerns that were touched on earlier. First, what if it's longer than six games? Secondly, what if it's a delayed suspension? If you know you've lost him for Weeks 1-6 and that you'll have him for the playoffs, it's an understood risk. But, if he fights it and misses games 10-16, then you lost your RB1 for the most crucial time of the season.

Christian Williams: Rumors are swirling of a potential six-game suspension for Kamara, and while an appeal could result in less games (or a delayed suspension), it’s really tough to justify taking him at RB9 without situational clarity. When Kamara does get on the field, the New Orleans passing offense won’t have a dire need for high pass-catching volume from their running backs as they have in the past; they’ve added both Jarvis Landry and Chris Olave to soak up some targets this offseason. Kamara’s output has been fantastic throughout his career, but the mixture of having to wait for that production and the potential for a new role with less volume makes the other running backs in his draft range look a lot more appealing.

Players Receiving 4 Votes

J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore

Kevin Coleman: In J.K. Dobbin’s rookie season, he finished strong as the lead back alongside Gus Edwards. Dobbins would finish the year with 805 rushing yards and nine touchdowns while adding eighteen receptions for 120 yards. Those numbers were good enough to make him RB10 over the last five games of the season. Albeit being a small sample size. He seemed primed for a breakout season early in the pre-season last year until he tore his ACL. There have now been some troubling reports that he hasn’t had a normal recovery and could have had some damage to his LCL and ACL. There is a chance Dobbins starts on the PUP list this season, and he’s too big of a risk in redraft.

Jeff Haseley: The Ravens have two running backs returning from an ACL injury (Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins) which likely will result in both seeing limited action, especially earlier in the season. Also, only one running back in the Lamar Jackson era has eclipsed 200 carries in a season (Mark Ingram had 202 carries in 2019). Since then no back has exceeded 144 carries. Baltimore is also ranked dead last in running back receptions since 2018, the year Lamar Jackson entered the league.

Chad Parsons: The Ravens running back group has finished 31st, 31st, and 32nd in High-Leverage Opportunities (combining goal-line carries and targets) over the past three seasons. This is not a high-upside backfield based on that fact alone. Add in J.K. Dobbins returning from a significant 2021 injury and Baltimore adding Mike Davis as a veteran hedge and Dobbins is far too risky as a mid-range RB2.

Jason Wood: We're all hoping Dobbins bounces back from a lost season and re-established a long NFL career as a feature back. But even if he's healthy, it's hard to justify building your team around Dobbins in PPR-scoring leagues. Lamar Jackson's unmatched mobility and willingness to run has the downside of removing dump-off passes from the running backs. Without receiving targets, and having to share the backfield with at least one or two other tailbacks, Dobbins isn't going to have the rushing volume or receiving optionality to deliver beyond his already optimistic ADP.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City

Andy Hicks: It’s not like the Chiefs have given up on former first-round pick, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, but he hasn’t exactly given the team confidence in his ability to take the lead role. He has missed a third of his games to date and he had a massive drop in big carry games, from five in 2020 to only one last year. As a receiver, he had four games with at least four catches in 2020. Last year there were none. The presence of former high draft pick, Ronald Jones II and Jerick McKinnon coming back do not bode well for Edwards-Helaire outplaying his ADP.

Dave Kluge: The Chiefs rode Jerick McKinnon through last year’s playoffs. They signed Ronald Jones II in free agency this year and brought McKinnon back. The Chiefs are essentially screaming to us that Edward-Helaire isn’t the guy. Still, he’s being drafted as the RB26 despite never finishing inside the top 20. The allure of his first-round draft selection is the only reason he’s still being drafted where he is. The team put him in a featured role multiple times, and he failed to produce. It’s possible that he ends up the Chiefs passing-down back and lives up to his fantasy draft stock. But banking on that is risky. The more likely scenario is that Edwards-Helaire, Jones, and McKinnon rotate in a frustrating committee that provides unpredictable fantasy value.

Sam Wagman: Edwards-Helaire sticks out as someone who at first glance may have been in for some additional work with the departures of guys like Darrel Williams and Tyreek Hill. When you look deeper though, the addition of Ronald Jones II and the re-signing of Jerick Mckinnon spell trouble for Edwards-Helaire to be much more than an RB3 with a limited floor. Jones is a more efficient early-down runner than Edwards-Helaire is and Mckinnon was very solid down the stretch last season, so color me worried about Edwards-Helaire at his current ADP.

Jason Wood: Edwards-Helaire enters his third season without a top-20 fantasy finish, despite being drafted as the new feature back and being afforded the opportunity to take -- and keep -- a heavy volume role. He misses too much time, isn't featured as a receiver, and hasn't been given a reliable role at the goal line. What's to be excited about? Layer in the addition of the underrated Ronald Jones II, and the re-signing of Jerick McKinnon -- who was a star in the late season and playoff run -- and Edwards-Helaire will be lucky to lead the team in rushing attempts much less deliver every-week fantasy value.

Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas

Anthony Amico: The new regime for the Raiders is not particularly reassuring of Jacobs' role with the team. They did not pick up his fifth-year option and took Zamir White in the fourth round of the NFL Draft. Additionally, Brandon Bolden -- a member of Josh McDaniels' Patriot teams -- is with the club. Bolden and Kenyan Drake could take away tons of receiving work, while White is capable of obtaining shots around the goal line. Jacobs could easily wind up as a player who does a lot of work between the 20s with no meaningful fantasy production.

Jeff Bell: John Gruden used a first-round pick on Josh Jacobs and topped his snap share out at 57%. If the coach who invested a Round 1 pick never fully bought in Jacobs as the clear alpha back, why would we expect Josh McDaniels and an offense notorious for situational running back usage to deliver a favorable situation? Since McDaniels took over, the Raiders have flooded the backfield with receiving specialists in Brandon Bolden and Ameer Abdullah before using a draft pick on Zamir White. Expecting anything but a committee approach is too risky for the 43rd overall pick for your fantasy draft.

Ben Cummins: The Raiders’ offense should be fun this season with the additions of Davante Adams and new head coach, Josh McDaniels. That makes me want to high on Josh Jacobs but it appears the masses are higher as his current cost ahead of Travis Etienne, Breece Hall, Elijah Mitchell, A.J. Dillon, etc. is too rich. McDaniels and the Raiders declined to exercise Jacobs’ fifth-year option this offseason and drafted Zamir White in the fourth round. Kenyan Drake returns from injury to muddy up this backfield even more.

Drew Davenport: Jacobs put together an overall PPR RB12 finish last year and was ranked RB15 in points per game, so it may seem like he's a value going off the board as the RB20. The problem is that things have changed drastically in Las Vegas. Last year, Jacobs saw a significant jump in his targets and receptions which largely kept his value afloat during games when his carry totals dipped or he failed to score. But now there is a guy named Davante Adams in town to command the football, a new rookie the coaches seem to like, and a new coaching staff. There is already talk of a committee with Kenyan Drake returning from injury and Zamir White being important to the future of the backfield, so it doesn't seem likely that Jacobs will have the same volume of receiving work to fall back on this year. That makes him an unexciting, touchdown-dependent flex play, not the RB2 he was last year.

Javonte Williams, Denver

Gary Davenport: For a minute there, it looked like a Williams breakout in 2022 was almost a certainty. Backs were slapped. Champagne was opened. And then the Broncos re-upped Melvin "Buzzkill" Gordon and spoiled the fun. Williams is the better talent at this point to be sure. And we may well see the workload split more favorably toward him in 2022 after both backs had the exact same number of carries a year ago. But it's not like Gordon was awful last season—he actually average slightly more yards per carry than Williams and had twice as many rushing touchdowns. Provided that Gordon's level of play doesn't careen off a cliff, he's going to eat into Williams' touches enough to make a solid ROI on his current ADP unlikely. What a party pooper.

Jeff Haseley: The hype on Williams is growing to a fever pitch, yet Melvin Gordon is still in the picture. There is virtually no value on Williams right now. He is being drafted based on his expected increase in production. To make matters worse for his fantasy outlook, Russell Wilson has only had one running back in his tenure with 40 receptions or more. Is that Seattle-driven or Wilson-driven? Perhaps a bit of both but it's definitely something to be aware of.

Chad Parsons: The price has vaulted up on Javonte Williams after a quality rookie season. However, Melvin Gordon returning is the lynchpin for tepid upside expectations outside of a Gordon injury. Even if the split is swapped with Williams as the slight 1A to Gordon's now 1B, achieving a top-12 result will hinge on Gordon missing a chunk of the season. There are plenty of clarified RB1 types later in the draft to not take the variable shot on Williams.

Jason Wood: Williams has the talent to be a top-10 fantasy back for years to come. But the Broncos re-signed Melvin Gordon which cannot be interpreted as anything short of a re-commitment to a 50/50 committee. Given Russell Wilson's historic propensity to score rushing touchdowns in goal-line situations, it's hard to get overly excited about Williams, particularly in PPR formats.

Players Receiving 3 Votes

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Antonio Gibson, Washington

Anthony Amico: The story with Gibson is somewhat similar to that of Jacobs, but with a proof of concept already complete. We've seen J.D. McKissic take the bulk of receiving work in Washington -- despite the fact that Gibson himself is a converted wide receiver. The Commanders drafted Brian Robinson on Day 2 of the draft, a bigger back who also excelled in pass protection. This likely puts Gibson two injuries away from a full workload, and Robinson is capable of taking away money touches in the redzone as well.

Kevin Coleman: Antonio Gibson’s value has taken a hit this offseason. The Commanders made it a priority of theirs to bring back J.D. McKissic this offseason and added Alabama running back Brian Robinson in the 3rd round of the NFL draft. Before McKissic was injured with a concussion in Week 12, which forced him to miss the remainder of the season, Gibson was only getting targeted 2.6 times per game. That number of targets limited his ceiling, and he was barely a low-end RB2. After McKissic went out, Gibson’s targets increased, which inflated his overall finish in 2021. With McKissic back taking over passing down duties and Brian Robinson possibly taking over red zone opportunities, Gibson is now being overvalued in fantasy drafts.

Ben Cummins: I’m a big fan of Antonio Gibson’s talent but he will have to overcome a lot of hurdles to pay off his current ADP. Washington’s offense ranked 21st in overall DVOA last season and it doesn’t project to improve much in 2022 despite the addition of Carson Wentz. J.D. McKissic returns from injury to his role as the pass-catching back and Washington also drafted Brian Robinson in the third round. After the Robinson selection, head coach Ron Rivera likened the potential Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson combination to the Jonathan Stewart and D'Angelo Williams pairing he used during his Carolina days. Gibson plays on a bad offense, has rushing competition from Robinson, and receiving competition from McKissic. No thanks.

Rhamondre Stevenson, New England

Kevin Coleman: Rhamondre Stevenson will only be a reliable option if Damien Harris misses anytime with an injury. Harris is the clear-cut RB1 on that roster, and Stevenson serves just a handcuff. With Harris on the last year of his contract, look for the Patriots to ride him hard this year, leaving very little room for Stevenson to have a role without an injury. The Patriots also added Pierre Strong Jrand Kevin White in the draft, who could both earn work in the passing game. Veteran James White is also recovering from a season-ending hip injury, but if he makes the roster, he’ll also play an essential role in the offense. Stevenson has too many roadblocks ahead of him to be worth his current ADP.

Chad Parsons: Damien Harris remains the projected starter and the Patriots added multiple quality-profiled rookies from the Day 3 bucket this offseason in Pierre Strong and Kevin Harris. James White may return from injury as well. Stevenson priced on the top end of primary (and clarified) backups is far too rich considering he has Day 3 pedigree himself and the Patriots' history to play weekly reindeer games with the depth chart. Assuming Stevenson is the clarified backup to Harris and paying on the higher end of that assumption is a fantasy draft day mistake.

Christian Williams: Stevenson’s 2021 production was largely on the back of Damien Harris being out of commission entirely or limited in some way. His snap share exceeded 50% just three times, and he had four usable weeks; one of which came with Harris sidelined. New England’s reinvestment in running backs during the 2022 NFL Draft (Pierre Strong Jr and Kevin Harris) and the return of James White indicate that they don’t have full confidence in Stevenson as a reliable option at the position. Drafting him at his ADP of RB38 is banking on a Damien Harris injury, and there are higher upside backups to consider a round or two later.

Players Receiving 2 Votes

Saquon Barkley, NY Giants

Andy Hicks: The year was 2019 and Saquon Barkley finishes the last three weeks with 63 carries for 393 rushing yards and four touchdowns. Add in 11 receptions for 146 yards and a touchdown and Barkley had fantasy managers excited for his future. Now, he averages 3.46 yards a carry over the last two years and has to be looking to escape for a fresh start on a much better team. We have to get through 2022 first though and it is with very little confidence. There is always hope, but we need more than that with our second to third-round selections.

Matt Waldman: Barkley has elite individual talents. Too often, he also crosses the line between aggressive and reckless decisions. His decisions are too rooted in avoiding defenders rather than attacking them--even in advantageous 1-on-1 scenarios with room to set up the opponent. He also doesn't press creases deep enough to leverage his immense physical talents. This leads to a lot of boom-bust production in the box score. Even so, the ups and downs still add up to starter value at year's end when he's the focus of the offense. Barkley will be a focus of the offense but I'm not convinced he'll be the focus. Daniel Jones is in a prove-it year and I'm not betting on him proving that he's not the Giants' long-term future. I'll be monitoring the progress of the offensive line this summer and address Barkley's ranking if I see tangible hope.

James Cook, Buffalo

Drew Davenport: It's hard to argue against anyone at RB37, but Cook still seems priced too high. While he profiles as the receiving back Buffalo has been after, what is the realistic potential for Cook? It doesn't look as though he is built to carry the ball too often on early downs or at the goal line, and he plays for an offense that hasn't thrown the ball to one running back more than 52 times since Josh Allen arrived in town. This is a situation where Cook adds an exciting dynamic to the Bills offense as a whole and as a real-life NFL player but doesn't look likely to move the fantasy needle in the short term. There are plenty of players fantasy managers should be trying to draft in rounds eight and nine over Cook.

Sam Wagman: This seems like a case of overpriced rookie fever, an all-too-common issue we have as rankers. Cook is stepping into a weird situation in Buffalo. We know that they wanted to upgrade at the passing-down running back position since they tried (and failed) to secure a deal with J.D. McKissic in free agency this spring, but at RB37, I still think Cook is priced too high given that the Bills have not placed a high emphasis on checking the ball down to the RB position. Duke Johnson Jr was also signed this past offseason to provide some help in that department and as a passing-down specialist, he and incumbent back Devin Singletary could still snag targets away from Cook, who is unlikely to have too many carries this year.

Tony Pollard, Dallas

Kevin Coleman: According to Footballguys ADP, Tony Pollard is currently being drafted before Kareem Hunt, Hunter Renfrow, Ken Walker, and Melvin Gordon. That’s a mistake. Volume will always be king for running backs, and Pollard will never get the volume needed in an Ezekiel Elliot-led offensive system. He only saw more than 15 touches in four games last season. We saw how much the coaching staff valued him in the playoffs when he played under 30 snaps and only had six touches. His value is too high for a boom or bust flex option with the players still on the board.

Drew Davenport: Fading Pollard is mostly about the situation. Playing redraft leagues means starting a lineup every week and Pollard's ADP means that in many situations he will have to be counted on as a starter. The burst and potential he has on the field is undeniable, but absent an Elliott injury Pollard will be a tantalizing player that pops with a few games where he catches some passes or scores. Strangely he seemed to lose touches as the season wore on even while the starter labored with an injury and this led to nine games with single-digit PPR points and eight games with 10 or fewer touches. Other than hoping for an injury to Elliott, there is nothing in this profile that means Pollard should be taken as a mid-tier RB3. He's a great pick a few rounds later, but taking him ahead of players with guaranteed touches doesn't make sense.

Players Receiving 1 Vote

Cam Akers, LA Rams

Ryan Weisse: Our case study for Akers was Marlon Mack. Mack was a healthy scratch for most of 2021 and managed just 28 carries and only 3.6 yards per carry. Yes, Akers' recovery was super-heroic, but his performance was not. Between the regular and post-season, Akers carried the ball 72 times for 175 total yards. He scored zero touchdowns and fumbled the ball twice. While he was very hot for five games as a rookie, I do not see a top-20 value over a 17-game season.

James Conner, Arizona

Christian Williams: Being in on Conner in 2022 feels easy. He finished as the RB5 in 2021, racking up 202 carries, having his second-most efficient season as a pass catcher, and finishing second the NFL in rushing touchdowns. The departure of Chase Edmonds only enhances the potential receiving work. But Conner lacked efficiency on the ground and the odds he scores a touchdown on 7.5% of his touches in 2022 are slim. The Arizona offense will be without DeAndre Hopkins to begin the year (as they did most of the second half in 2021), but upon his return, he will be a red-zone target hog. Conner’s ADP of RB15 builds in some insulation, but not enough to justify drafting him over more consistently efficient options in that range.

A.J. Dillon, Green Bay

Jason Wood: Dillon finished 25th (PPR) on a per-game basis last year, so his ADP assumes he'll remain in a similar role. While that's possible, Aaron Jones played less than 50% of snaps in six games due to a few injuries, while Dillon played all 17 games. If the injury situation normalizes, Dillon will be hard-pressed to match less year, much less exceed it. The Packers are in a tenuous position after letting Davante Adams go and doing next to nothing in the offseason to replace him. Expect the Packers' offense to be less productive, which means fewer scoring opportunities. Fewer touches and fewer touchdowns make Dillon someone to avoid.

Travis Etienne, Jacksonville

Andy Hicks: A first-round pick for the Jaguars last year, Travis Etienne missed his entire rookie season. Not only is he unproven Etienne has a new coaching staff and competition from James Robinson. You normally do not like your inexperienced or rookie backs to attract a fourth-round draft price. Even the prize rookie from this year’s draft in Breece Hall has a lower ADP. Etienne also is likely to be touchdown and rushing attempt deprived on a struggling Jacksonville offense. The upside is there, but compared to the risk a wiser choice needs to be made with a pick this early.

Damien Harris, New England

Drew Davenport: Harris scored a whopping 14 touchdowns during the fantasy season last year (through Week 17), and his role near the goal line was virtually unparalleled as he was just 18th in the league in attempts but was 2nd in carries inside the 10-yard line and 3rd in carries inside the 5-yard line. Unfortunately, he also counted on those touchdowns to provide over 43% of his fantasy points for the whole season and he added a scant 14 receptions on the year. The other major problem for Harris is that second-year back Rhamondre Stevenson began to earn more time as the year wore on in 2021 and by the end of the season this was a virtual committee. Neither Stevenson nor Harris posted snap totals fantasy managers want to see near the end of the year and New England has never shown the propensity to utilize a feature back. As a result, drafting Harris means relying on a high touchdown total that appears unsustainable in a timeshare.

Derrick Henry, Tennessee

Dave Kluge: Looking at nearly any efficiency metric, Henry is showing signs of slowing down. His yards after contact per attempt, broken tackle rate, breakaway run rate, and PFF grade have been trending downwards for the last few seasons. His fantasy output last year was buoyed by career-highs in usage rate, touchdowns per game, and targets per game. Now 28 years old and coming off a foot injury, it’s easy to see him nosediving off the age cliff. Henry struggled in his playoff return last year. The team drafted Hassan Haskins and signed Julius Chestnut, two big-bodied bruisers than could limit Henry’s workload. As an early first-round pick, there are plenty of safer options to draft.

Kareem Hunt, Cleveland

Jeff Bell: The decrease in value in pass-catching backs with rushing quarterbacks is well documented, and Nyheim Hines had his worst professional season with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback. If Hunt does not realize value via the passing game, his ceiling becomes very low. The Browns retained D’Ernest Johnson, locking Hunt into a committee role even if Nick Chubb were to miss time. A committee back in a Jacoby Brissett offense is a pass.

Aaron Jones, Green Bay

Matt Waldman: Jones is one of the most difficult players for me to project this year. A.J. Dillon has shown enough potential that we could see a true split. Dillon is a good receiver and a dangerous runner. At the same time, if the Packers' receiving corps struggles much like the Lions in 2021, we could Jones in a Swift-like game scenario week after week that leads to RB1 value, especially when Jones is a much better inside runner than Swift. Yet, I'm more optimistic about the receiving corps in Green Bay and it means I expect more of a split. Jones' value and upside make him a quality pick but I'm not as bullish at this point on him achieving elite statistical upside.

Christian McCaffrey, Carolina

Andy Hicks: Christian McCaffrey cannot continue to be one of the highest picks in all formats in fantasy leagues. In the last two years, he has finished just over a handful of games fit and healthy. The last time he played in and completed four games in a row was in 2019. Running Back is one position where time moves on quickly. The Panthers wanted to trade him, but other teams baulked at the injuries and price tag. At his best, he deserves to be considered as the first running back off the board. In 2022, you risk losing your draft at a higher chance than winning it if he is on your roster.

Elijah Mitchell, San Francisco

Matt Waldman: The 49ers have an excellent ground game in terms of scheme and personnel that opens the rushing lanes. The balance of talent is weighted heavily on line play, tight ends, fullbacks, and coaching staff. Mitchell is a speedster who hits the hole fast but lacks the caliber of footwork and nuance of a do-it-all runner. While the 49ers proved that they cared more about speed than nuance from running back play -- Deebo Samuel's usage supports this idea -- the team continuing to select backs in the draft points to the organization being satisfied with what they have in their stable. Mitchell gets the first crack at maintaining the role he had in the 49ers' backfield last year, but Kyle Shanahan is fickle with personnel. This is not a backfield I trust when it comes to pinpointing the production leader this early in the year.

James Robinson, Jacksonville

Jeff Bell: Robinson is the low-hanging fruit on this list. If he returns from his Achilles injury to play meaningful snaps, it is one of the year's feel-good stories. The Jaguars added Snoop Conner to work in rotation, and Travis Etienne is the up-and-coming star in this backfield. Robinson’s upside is likely an early-down back in a poor offense. At this valuation, he is a stay away.

Miles Sanders, Philadelphia

Jeff Haseley: Miles Sanders has never exceeded 180 carries in a season and he had zero touchdowns last season, rushing or receiving. Inside the 20 yard-line, he had 20 carries and averaged 1.35 yards per carry. To make matters worse, two other running backs also had at least 20 carries inside the 20. Eagles running backs alone scored 14 rushing touchdowns in the red zone last season. Sanders had 0 of those 14. Maybe Sanders just isn't that good of a back. It would not surprise me to see Boston Scott or Kenneth Gainwell get more meaningful carries this season. Combined they had 11 of those 14 red zone rushing touchdowns.

Devin Singletary, Buffalo

Chad Parsons: The Bills' backfield offers one of the weakest upside equations in the NFL. They have been in the Bottom 5 of High-Leverage Opportunities at the position (goal-line carries mixed with targets) over the past three seasons. Add in Round 2 rookie James Cook and a rushing-capable Josh Allen and this squeezes Singletary from multiple sides. Fade Singletary and take a shot on higher leverage, even if a primary backup, play on another NFL depth chart.

DAndre Swift, Detroit

Matt Waldman: Detroit's opponents gave the Lions room to throw the ball in the shallow zones last year. This is only natural when an offense is in catch-up mode and/or tight game scripts with inexperienced or underwhelming wideouts. With the Lions forced to dink and dunk to move downfield, Swift reached his production ceiling last year. A high-volume receiver, Swift was among the least effective starters between the tackles in the NFL -- a known weakness of this game heading into 2021. The Lions had a weak receiving corps to begin 2021, and the new additions weren't match-up field stretchers. D.J. Chark and potentially, Jameson Williams will change that. So will a healthy T.J. Hockenson. This will change how defenses play the Lions offense and the game scripts will not be maximized in Swift's favor. He has a high floor but not as high of a ceiling as many project.

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