Below are some props that you should keep your eye on as you head into Week 17.
All props are coming from DraftKings Sportsbook lines and be sure to keep checking back throughout the weekend as props are added over the course of the 24 hours prior to the game. The number of props will largely depend on the recommended plays, but typically we stay around 5. We will not be forcing the number of props just to meet a number as if it is on here, it is deemed a good play
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Week 17 Recap
All I can do is laugh at this point at how bad things have turned. Week 10, Week 11, and Week 16 were absolute killers to the overall season as we have not been able to pull a 5-0 week all year to offset the two 0-5 weeks.
Tua Tagovailoa Over 242.5 Passing Yards- Loss
Mike Evans Under 46.5 Receiving Yards- Loss (47)
Matthew Stafford Over 287.5 Passing Yards- Win
David Montgomery Over 24.5 Receiving Yards- Loss
Davante Adams Over 87.5 Receiving Yards- Win
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Week 1 |
Week 2 |
Week 3 |
Week 4 |
Week 5 |
Week 6 |
Week 7 |
Week 8 |
Week 9 |
Week 10 |
Week 11 |
Week 12 |
Week 13 |
Week 14 |
Week 15 |
Week 16 |
Week 17 |
Total |
|
3-2 |
1-4 |
2-3 |
2-3 |
3-2 |
4-1 |
4-1 |
2-3 |
3-2 |
1-4 |
0-5 |
2-3 |
3-2 |
3-4 |
3-2 |
0-5 |
2-3 |
38-49 |
Week 18 Plays- 5 Plays this week
Andy Dalton Over 218.5 Passing Yards
Andy Dalton has had an up and down season as he has topped 218.5 just twice over his last four games failing to do so against the Giants and Ravens. Those two teams did not pose much of an offensive threat as the Bears beat the Giants 29-3 last week and did lose to the Ravens 16-13 after having the lead for much of that game. This week, the Bears are facing a Vikings team who can score quite a few points but do give up a lot of points as well. The Vikings have allowed over 218.5 yards in eight of their last 10 games and allowed Ben Roethlisberger, Justin Fields, Jimmy Garoppolo, Jared Goff, Lamar Jackson, and Cooper Rush to all do that.
Jonathan Taylor Over 115.5 Rushing Yards
This one may be a sucker bet, but it’s hard to see Taylor not reaching above this number. Since October, Jonathan Taylor has reached 100 yards in every game except when facing top 5 run defenses in Baltimore, Tampa Bay, and Tennessee. Jacksonville’s run defense has been sputtering to the end of the season as they are coming off of back to back games where Michael Carter ran for 118 yards and the Patriots ran for 146 yards led by Rhamondre Stevenson who ran for 107 and two touchdowns. In a must win game for the Colts, expect them to lean heavily on Taylor this week. Taylor had 116 yards in their first meting earlier this season, but also had 6 receptions. Taylor is not catching the ball anymore, so if even 2 or 3 of those receptions turned to carries since the change in offensive philosophy, he easily tops the 115.5 number.
Tyler Lockett Under 55.5 Receiving Yards
Lockett came out on Friday and talked about some of the issues that he faced with Covid in that, “he could barely move”. Since coming back from the Covid list, Lockett has not been right as he has just 30 yards and 24 yards in his two games since returning. This week, it’s hard to see just how motivated the Seahawks will be in this game in what likely will be Russell Wilson’s last game in a Seattle jersey. The Seahawks also have developed an outstanding rushing attack over the last two games which has impacted Lockett’s receiving numbers as Russell Wilson has thrown for under 30 times in each of his last two games. Lockett did have 115 yards in the teams first meeting but had just four receptions on five targets. If Lockett only has 5 targets again, he will almost certainly be below 55.5 yards.
Jake Fromm Under 166.5 Passing Yards
Jake Fromm and this Giants offense has been absolutely abysmal. Last week, the Giants threw the ball just 11 times for just 24 yards as Mike Glennon looked completely overmatched against the Bears. The Giants have scored just 19 total points over the last three weeks (6.3 average). They simply have no talent at the wide receiver position as Kenny Golladay has shown he can’t consistently get open as he has caught just 8 of his 25 targets over the last four games. How much do the Giants want to be here as they’re coasting to the offseason is the big question. Jake Fromm is completing just 41.4% of his passes on the year. This is just a mess of a team that likely has little to no upside this week.
Josh Allen Over 248.5 Passing Yards
This is one that the gap between Footballguys projections and the Jets is just too significant to pass up. Footballguys has Allen projected at 283 yards passing and DraftKings has it 45 yards less. Allen has been a bit of a roller coaster as he has yo-yo’d with bad games and good games in back to back weeks dating back to November 14th against the Jets when he threw for 366 yards. Since that game, he threw for 209, 260, 145, 308, 210, 314, and then last week for just 120 with three interceptions. By that trend, he should have a good game coming for Allen who is now facing the Jets again who have one of the worst secondaries in football. The Jets are coming off of a 410 yard performance from Tom Brady and the week before a 280 yard performance from Trevor Lawrence. This is a game where Allen should get back in good form before the playoffs.
