Is Growth as a Passer a Must for Mobile Quarterbacks?

Photo: USA Today Sports

Dual-threat quarterbacks have always been around in the NFL. From Fran Tarkenton back in the 1960s to Lamar Jackson now. Quarterbacks who have been able to rely on their athleticism to give them an additional edge have been key to fantasy football success. More often than not, that running ability has not always been accompanied by passing success, and that has hindered more than one quarterback from being a truly elite option.

We’ve seen players like Steve McNair significantly improve his passing game and go on to win an MVP award after entering the league as a predominantly rushing quarterback. Yet, we have also seen players like Akili Smith and Kordell Stewart, talented runners who did not improve. They were subsequently out of the league only a few short years after they entered.

With Jalen Hurts taking over the Eagles this season, two paths can define his career. He could never overcome the stigma of being a good rushing quarterback, or he can use his rushing ability to improve his passing prowess and become a star NFL quarterback. So when does growth usually happen for mobile quarterbacks, and is there a correlation from passing growth to a longer career and better fantasy numbers?

The Dual-Threat Quarterback

When people type in "dual-threat" on a Google search, the main name you’ll see come up is Michael Vick. He’s the name most commonly associated with the term and maybe the most electric running quarterback of all time. How good was he as a passer, though?

As you can see, Vick was always a very talented rusher, but for the first half of his career, the passing didn’t grow with him, and he was stuck in that low- to mid-50% completion rating. That seemed to change for the second half of his career, as he showed somewhat of a resurgence joining up with Andy Reid in Philadelphia. The rushing numbers ticked down a bit, but Vick posted career-high numbers in completion percentage as well as passing yardage in 2010 and 2011. Vick was able to leverage his passing growth into extending his career since most people thought it was over after going to prison for two years. He came back strong, posting his best fantasy numbers in 2010, and is a prominent example of lengthening his career due to passing growth.

An example of the other side could be Colin Kaepernick. There can be a lot said about Kaepernick and the downfall of his career, but for this article, we’ll stick to stats and fantasy numbers. Kaepernick had a very public setting to the end of his tenure, but before that, he led the San Francisco 49ers to a Super Bowl in 2012. During the 2013 playoffs, he only connected on 45 of 82 passes for 576 yards. He was not willing to stand in the pocket and deliver. Instead, he would often prefer to roll out and throw on the run despite lacking accuracy on those throws. He was a very run-heavy quarterback whose career completion percentage hovered at 60%. His time in the NFL was shortened when the 49ers released him.

With Kyle Shanahan coming over to run his own scheme, he did not believe Kaepernick was a good fit for his system. Before that, Kaepernick had just not played well, and internal rumblings with the team suggested they were unhappy that he had not progressed as a passer. Even though he put up 16 passing touchdowns to only 4 interceptions in 2016, he ranked 26th in the league in completion percentage at 59.2% and 23rd with a 49.2 QBR. With these stats, he was a mediocre fantasy option at best, ranking 25th overall in 2016 among quarterbacks. It is fair to assume that Kaepernick’s career took a big hit due to his stats not being as good as they looked on paper.

Which Path For Hurts?

Jalen Hurts entered the league last year as a backup to Carson Wentz and wasn’t expected to play much at all. That all changed when Wentz was benched and Hurts became the new Philadelphia Eagles starter. Now, Hurts is another one of many solid fantasy options as a mobile quarterback, joining Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, and many others. We have seen Allen and Lamar take the massive leap as a passer these past years, and Murray seems poised to do the same this upcoming season. Where will Hurts fall in this category?

He may have some work to do. He had just a 52% completion rate last year, but with a full offseason of practice and having an offense built around him, he should be able to make a nice jump in passing efficiency this year. Another factor in helping improve his passing abilities is the addition of one of his favorite targets. The Eagles drafted Hurts’ former college teammate DeVonta Smith in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft. A better receiving corps and the Eagles’ top-tier offensive line will help him make his way into the top-10 of fantasy quarterback next year, even without a completion percentage jump.

This wild perception that Jalen Hurts is suddenly a horribly inaccurate quarterback due to his 52% completion rate last year (in 4 games with no prep by the way) is ridiculous.

Hurts was billed as a game manager type of QB in college that could kill you with his legs. Still true https://t.co/VD3BkS5ewM

— Sam Wagman (@swagman95) June 19, 2021

Make no mistake, Hurts has a lot riding on this season. He is not in a position where he can coast through the season. While all of the things mentioned above should help him become a better passer, the onus is on him to capitalize on it and make the Eagles feel comfortable about sticking with him as their quarterback of the future.

At the end of the day, there have been many mobile quarterbacks throughout history that have improved significantly in their passing abilities and were able to lengthen their careers doing it. But for every Josh Allen and Michael Vick that improved, there was a Cam Newton that has more or less stagnated throughout his career with his passing growth but still managed to have fantasy success.

Keeping all of this in mind, passing growth is important to lengthen a career. Still, there is not necessarily a correlation between lack of growth and it harming overall fantasy numbers. There are plenty of ways to contribute to fantasy success, and in today’s NFL, more and more quarterbacks are predisposed to running to augment their games. Someone like Jalen Hurts can be an effective fantasy starter for many years based on this, and as long as he manages to keep defenses honest with his arm, he will succeed.