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We closed out the 2024 regular season on a high note, going 2-0 in Week 18 to bring our season total record to 51-21. Getting this article for free is a great reason to sign up for the DFS package, as it's just a small taste of what we can offer!
Prop Talk is Footballguys' leading NFL player props weekly article. We will use a combination of Footballguys' fantastic tools, rankings, and projections --as well as my insights-- to understand whether a player will go over or under their weekly player prop number to help you win some money.
Let's dive right into some Wild Card NFL player props.
Wild Card Round NFL Player Props
We'll be using many different sportsbooks for these NFL player prop lines. Our advice is to always line-shop at as many sportsbooks as possible to find the best possible line!
Ladd McConkey Over/Under 73.5 Receiving Yards (DraftKings)
If you're going to go a certain direction to attack the Houston Texans secondary, McConkey is the way to go here. To start things off, you want to go in the opposite direction of wherever Texans' CB Derek Stingley Jr. is (typically on the outside), and McConkey runs the vast majority of his routes out of the slot, where Justin Herbert has been one of the top QBs in the NFL in targeting slot receivers.
McConkey has been fantastic this season, but the Texans' defense has really struggled since nickel Jalen Pitre went down with a season-ending injury. In the past several matchups, here are some slot receivers' totals against the Texans:
- Demario Douglas: 4 catches for 46 yards
- Marvin Mims Jr.: 3/62
- Ray-Ray McCloud III: 4/95
- Ja'Marr Chase: 7/75
To his credit, McConkey has gone over this number in six of his past seven games. While the rookie standout has performed much better against man coverage, he still leads the Chargers in Yards per Route Run against zone coverage with nearly 2.6 YPRR.
Pick: McConkey OVER 73.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Lamar Jackson Over/Under 218.5 Passing Yards (DraftKings)
Jackson has put up yet another MVP-caliber season (and this one is even better than last year's campaign), but we're pumping the brakes a bit, at least for the aerial attack in this matchup versus the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Steelers and Ravens are playing in the third matchup between the two bitter AFC North rivals this week, with the season series tied at 1. While I do believe that the Ravens get the win (at this point, who doesn't?), I'm pessimistic that Jackson has to throw a bunch in order to accomplish it.
Lamar will be missing his top receiving target in Zay Flowers for this one, who hurt his knee in the Week 18 matchup against the Cleveland Browns. While Rashod Bateman will step up into the WR1 spot, there are myriad reasons why he wouldn't maintain Flowers' usage, the least of which being that Bateman had dealt with his own injury issues up until a few weeks ago.
The main thing is this: in both games against the Steelers this season, Jackson has thrown for 207 yards in each game. Take the under here.
Pick: Jackson UNDER 218.5 Passing Yards (-115)
