Sunday Morning Update
Check back each Sunday Morning around 11:45 EST for any updates based on the actives/inactives and Sunday news. Note, we will always put something on here even if it is as simple as “no update”.
Injury News: The only key injury news seems to be that Lamar Jackson is going to play this week. This is a downgrade for Devonta Freeman as it likely lowers his receiving upside.
Lineup Thoughts:
This is a really challenging week as there are just not that many top end players who make a lot of sense paying up for. This week, there's only one small change to the primary cash lineup and the one player that I keep going back to is DeVante Parker. At $5,800, it just seems like it would be a mistake not to play him and play a guy in Tee Higgins in a difficult matchup. The Dolphins are still in the playoff hunt and getting a player such as Parker engrained back into the offense is critical especially without Jaylen Waddle so I can see a big game from him this week against a Jets team that are allowing the 9th-most passing yards per game.
So, the question now is, what do we do with the other remaining salary, as we have locks in Jeff Wilson, James Robinson, Davante Adams, Diontae Johnson, DaVante Parker, and George Kittle. You certainly could go up to Kyler Murray or Josh Allen, but they seem overpriced and I really want to play Aaron Rodgers in this matchup against Baltimore. You could upgrade a defense, but if you've been around here long enough you know that is something I hardly ever do. And finally, the other option that we have is to upgrade Devonta Freeman, who I love this week, but with no Lamar Jackson makes it a slight downgrade.
I'm going to upgrade Aaron Rodgers to Kyler Murray. The reasoning here is relatively simple, upside. Murray against Detroit has a very high ceiling, and while I don't know that Detroit will do enough offensively to get to that high ceiling, Murray still has a ceiling that is unmatched on this slate. The upgrades from Freeman were pretty lackluster, as we were looking at guys such as Cordarelle Patterson and Saquon Barkley neither of which are a significant upgrade compared to Freeman. I wish there were more players that could be trusted this week at the top end so that I could play Aaron Rodgers as I think he's in a fantastic position, but on a short slate, these are sometimes the choices that you need to make.
Cash Lineup (Projected Points: 126.5)
- QB Kyler Murray, ARI, $8,800
- RB Devonta Freeman, BAL, $5,900
- RB James Robinson, JAC, $6,300
- WR DeVante Parker, MIA, $5,800
- WR Davante Adams, GB, $8,500
- WR Diontae Johnson, PIT, $7,200
- TE George Kittle, SF, $7,800
- Flex RB Jeff Wilson, SF, $5,800
- TD Jacksonville, $3,600
SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.
Low scoring week, only three teams make the cutoff of situations that standout this week.
- Arizona (at Detroit) 30.25 points
- San Francisco (vs Atlanta) 27.75 points
- Dallas (at NY Giants) 27.5 points
- Buffalo (vs Carolina) 27.5 points
- Miami (vs NY Jets) 26 points
Format:
We are going to merge the two formats that we have been testing. We will still have the player by player charts that have become popular, but also add in the player charts for all players as some people liked to use those as well. Please continue to provide feedback on what you like and don’t like about this article. Knotts@footballguys.com or on twitter.com/devinknottsfbg
Week 13 Recap
Week 14 was another easy week as the primary lineup absolutely crushed it finishing with 148.7 which was good enough to be in the top 5% of cash lineups.
What went right?
- Last week proved that there is still an edge in cash games as Hunter Renfrow was somehow only 24% rostered in 50/50’s. At $6,700, he was my top overall wide receiver and absolutely crushed it with 13 receptions 117 yards and a touchdown.
- Taking a stand on playing both Hill and Kamara was the right call as for some reason people did not want to play them. They were each just 15% rostered in 50/50’s and they both dominated against the Jets totaling a combined 48.8 points.
- Avoiding Ezekiel Elliott and Antonio Gibson. Avoiding Gibson was just luck to be honest, as I couldn’t fit a lineup that I loved, and preferred Leonard Fournette over Gibson, but the Elliott decision was crucial as the volume just has not been there even with Tony Pollard being out I didn’t think he would get the increased workload.
- Austin Hooper ended up being a great tight end value play over Travis Kelce who he actually outscored 11.5 to 4.2.
INJURY UNLOCKS OPPORTUNITY?
Do I even need to say how important the Sunday Morning Update will be this week? Here’s what we know so far:
- LA Rams- Seattle game has been moved to Tuesday, do not start any of their players.
- Philadelphia- Washington game has been moved to Tuesday, do not start any of their players.
- Lamar Jackson is questionable with an ankle injury. Harbaugh has come out and said there is a chance that he plays which doesn’t seem like a great sign.
- Carlos Hyde is out with a concussion, Urban Meyer also fired, which is great news for James Robinson.
- DeAndre Hopkins was placed on IR, ending his season. A.J. Green and Rondale Moore will be asked to take on additional workload with him out.
- James Conner is questionable with an ankle injury, while it looks like Chase Edmonds is going to play with ankle injury. It appears both are likely to play, but if one doesn’t the other is one of the top plays on this slate
- DAndre Swift remains out and Jamaal Williams is still on the Covid-19 list, which means that Craig Reynolds will likely see the start in Detroit this week.
- Elijah Mitchell is out with a concussion, Jeff Wilson will once again see the bulk of the workload in San Francisco, although Deebo Samuel will receive some carries now that he is set to return.
- Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams are both questionable this week. Of the two, Williams seems less likely to play as he missed Thursday’s practice with a knee injury while Gordon has been a limited practice all week.
Crazy Week
This is going to be one of the crazier weeks that I can certainly remember playing DFS as we truly have no idea how much the slate is going to change over the next 24-36 hours.
This seems to be a week where you really want to take players that you can trust. Focusing on players who are going to see the most touches per dollar and are seemingly the most reliable are going to pay off this week for you.
Note: At the running back position, these rankings are assuming both Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams are active, as well as Chase Edmonds and James Conner. If one of those players are inactive, the other becomes the immediate number one play on this slate.
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Quarterback |
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Rank |
Player |
Projection |
Salary |
Comment |
|
1 |
20.8 |
$7,600 |
FanDuel's pricing model must put a lot of weight on the Ravens matchup as they've priced Aaron Rodgers down at just $7,600. The Ravens secondary is one that Rodgers should be able to take advantage of as the Ravens are without Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters. The Ravens are allowing 280 yards passing per game which is the second-most in the NFL. Rodgers has been great the last few weeks as he has topped 300 in each of his last three games while throwing 10 touchdowns in those 3 games. |
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|
2 |
20.3 |
$7,500 |
Prescott has been struggling this season, but considering to go back to him this week is something you should strongly do. Tony Pollard is extremely questionable this week, Ezekiel Elliott looks to continue to be on a snap and carry count, which we could see Prescott have a big week in a favorable matchup against the Giants. The Giants have allowed 275 yards passing per game in four of the last five, while Prescott still has big time upside as he had 375 yards with 2 touchdowns just 3 weeks ago. |
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|
3 |
23.3 |
$8,800 |
This one is going to be somewhat controversial, but I'm worried about Kyler Murray this week especially if both running backs play. He's going to be popular in a favorable matchup against the Lions, but the question will be "does Murray have to run against this Lions team". Murray still looked far less than 100% as he limped off the field at the end of last week's games, so if the Cardinals can just run the ball with their running backs and throw a little bit to keep the defense honest, we may see that approach rather than Murray having a massive rushing attack. |
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4 |
23.8 |
$8,700 |
Something just seems off with the Bills offense this season as Josh Allen is averaging just 230 yards passing per game over his last four games. This week, the Bills are facing a Panthers defense that is the third best in the NFL in terms of yards allowed as they have allowed only 197 yards passing per game. The price just seems a little high for Allen as it seems as if you're paying for the player who ran for 109 yards last week when he had not topped 50 yards rushing in the 5 games prior to last week. |
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|
Running Back |
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Rank |
Player |
Projection |
Salary |
Comment |
|
1 |
13.8 |
$6,300 |
This is simply a mis-price of Robinson going up against a Houston defense that is allowing the 5th-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. With no Carlos Hyde, and Urban Meyer not holding Robinson back, expect a big volume day for Robinson this week. |
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|
2 |
12.6 |
$5,900 |
While the Ravens rushing attack has been one that we have tried to avoid for a long time, it has consolidated over the last four weeks as Freeman is averaging 14.8 carries over his last four games, and over his last two games the team has gotten him heavily involved in the passing game as he has five receptions in each of his last two games. With Lamar Jackson looking either limited or out this week, expect the Ravens to lean heavily on Freeman |
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|
3 |
Jeff Wilson |
10.3 |
$5,800 |
Even though Jeff Wilson disappointed somewhat last week, he is still a great play this week at just $5,800. Wilson had 13 carries while being on the field 60% of the snaps last week. The matchup is a great one as Atlanta is allowing the 6th-most fantasy points to opposing running backs on the season. |
|
4 |
DOnta Foreman |
11.6 |
$5,800 |
Pittsburgh's run defense has been absolutely horrendous as of late as they've allowed 9 touchdowns to running backs over their last 4 games. Foreman runs hard, but is somewhat limited in his skillset and volume has not been consistent, so it will remain to be seen if he can take advantage of the matchup, but certainly a nice GPP play if you don't want to play him in cash as his upside is very high, but his floor is pretty low as we saw last week against Jacksonville where he only had 47 yards rushing. |
|
5 |
16.1 |
$8,500 |
Expect Harris to garner a lot of popularity this week as he is likely the only running back on this slate to be almost guaranteed to receive 20 touches as he is averaging 24.5 over his last two games. The problem here is the price. At $8,800, you really want either one of the best running backs in football, or a running back in such a great matchup that we can see a path where he has a great game. THis week, we have neither. Harris while a good play, is not the best running back averaging just 3.7 yards-per-carry. The Titans run defense has been a strength, as they have only allowed one running back to top 70 yards this season which was back in Week 5 where James Robinson had a great game. |
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Wide Receiver |
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Rank |
Player |
Projection |
Salary |
Comment |
|
1 |
17.1 |
$8,500 |
With all of the cancellations, this one is a clear cut number one for Adams this week. Adams has topped 100 yards in each of his last three games while scoring 4 touchdowns in that timeframe. |
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|
2 |
Devante Parker |
10.6 |
$5,800 |
With no Jaylen Waddle, Parker is in line for a massive game this week in a very favorable matchup against the New York Jets. The biggest takeaway from last week was that Parker looked healthy as he had missed more than a month with a hamstring injury. Parker has now topped 60 yards in each of his last three games. |
|
3 |
11.5 |
$6,700 |
Who did Tee Higgins upset at FanDuel not to increase his price more than they have? All Higgins has done the last three weeks is produce as he has 114 or more yards in each of those three games while facing three difficult pass defenses in Pittsburgh, LA Chargers, and San Francisco. It's another tough matchup this week against Denver, but Higgins is a special player at too cheap of a price. |
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4 |
14.6 |
$7,600 |
We talked about how good the Titans run defense is, but their pass defense has struggled this season as they're allowing the sixth-most passing yards per game (270). Johnson has developed into the top target in this offense as he has seen 10 or more targets in each of his last six games. |
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5 |
13.9 |
$5,800 |
CeeDee Lamb has significant upside in this game as the Giants pass defense has been struggling in the second half of the season as they have allowed 275 yards or more in 4 of their last 5 games. Lamb was strong in their first matchup this season as he had 84 yards and a touchdown back in Week 5. |
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Tight End |
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Rank |
Player |
Projection |
Salary |
Comment |
|
1 |
14.3 |
$7,500 |
There is so much value on this slate, that I believe paying up for George Kittle makes sense. There is not enough top-end talent on this slate that makes sense paying up for, so by getting the potential difference maker at the tight end position could win you this week. Kittle has been dominant over the last two weeks as he has essentially taken all of the volume Deebo Samuel had earlier this season. Kittle is averaging 11 receptions for 166 yards and 1.5 touchdowns over his last two games. |
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2 |
9 |
$5,300 |
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