Sunday Morning Update
Check back each Sunday Morning around 11:45 EST for any updates based on the actives/inactives and Sunday news. Note, we will always put something on here even if it is as simple as “no update”.
Update #1 10:44 AM EST
A lot of key injury news has broke since the release of this article.
Ben Roethlisberger is out with Covid. Mason Rudolph will get the start this week. How this is going to impact the offense is difficult to tell. It likely limits the passing upside of most of the Steelers players, but may really impact Pat Freiermuth as Mason Rudolph has not targeted the tight ends much in his starting history. No tight end has topped 34 yards in games Rudolph has started. Najee Harris should see a few extra carries, but at $9,400 the price is tough to build around. Detroit's defense becomes interesting with Mason Rudolph starting as Rudolph has thrown 10 interceptions in his short time as a starting quarterback in the NFL.
Both Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins are looking doubtful per Adam Schefter. This likely will cause the Cardinals to look heavily at James Conner once again this week, but the matchup is not as strong as it was last week as Carolina is allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to running backs this season. Conner is a very good play, but not a must play this week.
Julio Jones was placed on IR with a hamstring injury. A.J. Brown is the last man standing in Tennessee with no Derrick Henry and Julio Jones. While A.J. Brown is going to be popular, but New Orleans is a concerning matchup. As bad as the Saints have been against wide receivers (3rd most fantasy points in the NFL), they have done a great job of shutting down top-end receivers as Marshon Lattimore is still an elite corner. So what do we do here? This is a scenario where I'm gritting my teeth and playing A.J. Brown as much as I don't love it. He's had 11 targets in each of his last two games and should be in line to potentially see slightly more than that this week.
| Player | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Touchdowns | Comment |
| Davante Adams | 5 | 56 | 0 | |
| Terry McLaurin | 4 | 46 | 0 | |
| DK Metcalf | 2 | 96 | 1 | Defender slipped/non-call offensive pass interference for an 84-yard touchdown |
| Mike Evans | 2 | 48 | 1 | |
| Kenny Golladay | 6 | 116 |
Chris Godwin is going to play this week. While it may hurt Mike Evans a little bit, it likely won't be that significant of a downgrade for Evans. With Godwin in the lineup, it adds another player for the Washington Football Team to have to worry about and could help Evans avoid as many double teams as he otherwise may have seen (which is the problem with A.J. Brown). If the Buccaneers are going to throw for ~300 yards a high percentage of that is going to go to Evans and Godwin. With Evans being the cheaper of the two, he's the preferred target in this game.
Week 10 Lineup- Footballguys Projected 133.9
- QB Josh Allen, BUF, $8,700
- RB DErnest Johnson, CLE, $5,400
- RB Mark Ingram, NO, $5,500
- WR Davante Adams, GB $8,700
- WR Mike Evans, TB, $7,400
- WR A.J. Brown, TEN, $7,600
- TE Dan Arnold, JAC, $5,100
- Flex RB Dalvin Cook, MIN $8,500
- TD Detroit Lions, $3,100
SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.
- Dallas (vs Atlanta) 31.75 points
- Tampa Bay (at Washington) 30.5 points
- Buffalo (at NY Jets) 29.75 points
- Indianapolis (vs Jacksonville) 29 points
- LA Chargers (vs Minnesota) 28.25 points
Week 9 Recap
Week 9 was a bit of a lucky week with unintended positive consequences, but it was another fairly easy week in terms of cash games. For cash game quarterbacks we liked both Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, but preferred Josh Allen all week. However, on the Sunday Morning Lineup, I needed to get Tyreek Hill into the lineup which forced me to switch from Allen to Lamar. Tyreek Hill ended up being terrible, but Lamar Jackson ended up being the positive end of the trade as he was outstanding while Josh Allen had his worst game of the year. The rest of the lineup outside of the Chiefs, Chubb, and Jackson was not great, but it was a low scoring week all around and easily made the cut and should have won most of your contests.
What went right:
- Nick Chubb was incredibly popular, but he was the must-play guy last week if you had any chance of cashing. Chubb had 137 yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground last week in a dominant performance at just $7,600.
- The Chiefs defense were unbelievable last week. They took an approach of blitzing seemingly every play
- Taking Cooper Kupp out of the lineup and replacing him with Chris Godwin ended up paying off even though the extra money we saved to upgrade Chuba Hubbard to Dandre Swift didn’t work out. Godwin was excellent as he had 140 yards and a touchdown this week.
What went wrong:
- All the wide receivers. Stefon Diggs, Tyreek Hill, and Jarvis Landry combined for a total of 19.4 points.
INJURY UNLOCKS OPPORTUNITY?
A significant amount of injuries this week, which will make the Sunday Morning Update critical.
- Chris Godwin is questionable this week. If Godwin is out, Mike Evans becomes the top play on this slate as the Buccaneers are taking on one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL in Washington this week.
- Alvin Kamara is out this week with a foot injury. Mark Ingram should be firmly in play this week as the Saints do not have much depth at the running back position. The only other active running back that they will likely has is Dwayne Washington who has just 17 carries over the last three seasons. Expect Ingram to get 17-20 carries this week and is a tremendous value.
- D’Ernest Johnson appears that he will be the only running back in Cleveland this week as Nick Chubb and Demetric Felton are out this week with Covid.
- Kyler Murray is once again a game-time decision with his ankle injury. Even if he plays, he’s likely not in consideration this week as so much of his value comes from his rushing upside which even if he plays he likely will not be running as he has ran for 38 total yards over his last four games.
- Aaron Rodgers appears like he will return this week from Covid, he will need to be activated by 4PM EST, but all signs are pointing towards being available.
- Chase Edmonds is out this week has been placed on IR with an ankle injury. James Conner should see a vast majority of the snaps this week while Eno Benjamin should see a little bit here.
- T.Y. Hilton is active. This is crushing news to Michael Pittman who looked to be a top play heading into this week. With Pittman at $7,200 he’s likely not playable in cash games with Hilton active.
Chalkiest Week of the Season
This is quickly turning into one of the chalkiest weeks that we have seen this season and really over the last couple of seasons. While it should be easy to build a lineup, the key thing here is to not get over-confident and really identify the spots that are going to be critical to differentiate yourself from your competitors. If for whatever reason these do not end up as chalk plays, then you should be in a great spot this week as all of these players are tremendous this week.
We are going to format this a little bit differently this week, as we are breaking down the Key Core first. These are going to be your chalky plays, and then touch on decisions that we’ll need to make after that section.
Key Core/Chalk Plays this Week
Quarterback
Josh Allen $8,700
Some people may be hesitant and go back to Justin Herbert but expect a vast majority of the field to go back to Josh Allen this week going up against a Jets defense that might be the worst in the NFL. Over the last three weeks, the Jets have allowed 10 rushing touchdowns and 8 passing touchdowns. With Josh Allen factoring into both so heavily, and with the team expected to score at least four this week based on their projected point total, Allen is in a great spot to bounce back after an abysmal performance.
Running Backs
D’Ernest Johnson $5,400
With the Browns Covid issues this week, D’Ernest Johnson is once again going to see the vast majority of the work in the backfield. In his first performance as the lead running back there was no drop off from him and Nick Chubb as Johnson had 146 yards rushing against a very good Denver run defense that has shut down the likes of Ezekiel Elliott, Saquon Barkley, James Robinson, Josh Jacobs, and Antonio Gibson. If you were to get any of those players at $5,400, they’d be a must play and Johnson in his small sample size outperformed all of them by a significant margin. The strength of this Browns offense is the offensive line led by Joel Bitonio, so expect a big day once again from Johnson.
Mark Ingram $5,500
With no Alvin Kamara and with Tony Jones still on IR, the running back duties will fall entirely on Mark Ingram this week. At just $5,500, Ingram should see 17-20 carries this week and while he is not the most electric running back, he has been much better since coming over to New Orleans as he is averaging 4.7 yards-per-carry compared to 2.9 during his time in Houston. Ingram has also shown a prowess as a receiver as he has caught 7 passes in his last two games in partial duty with New Orleans.
Wide Receivers
Davante Adams- $8,700
With Aaron Rodgers back this week, expect Davante Adams to be extremely popular this week. Adams has not been the dominant wide receiver he was in 2020, mostly driven by only having 3 touchdowns this season compared to 18 last season, but Adams is still averaging 98 receiving yards per game. This week, he gets to face a Seahawks secondary that will have no answer for Adams. The Seahawks have allowed 100 or more yards to receivers in four games this season and are allowing 287 yards passing per game.
KEY Decisions To Be Made
Running Back
This week there are really three running backs that could be considered as your third running back.
James Conner- $7,000
Great performance last week, should see the bulk of the carries this week. Great touchdown equity. Only concern here is that the matchup is somewhat difficult compared to the other two running backs on this list and with the savings we’ve already banked with Johnson/Ingram do we need another low-end running back.
Dalvin Cook- $8,500
Coming off of a 110 yard performance last week against a very good Baltimore defense. This week, Cook gets to face the worst run defense in the NFL in the Chargers who are allowing the most yards, most attempts, and fourth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. A favorable matchup is a welcome sight for Cook as he has faced an absolute gauntlet in terms of difficult matchups this season as the only matchup that has been in the top half of run defenses has been Cincinnati, but they were much stronger when they played back in Week 1.
Najee Harris- $9,400
Najee has been so consistent this season as the usage that he gets is truly remarkable. Over his last four games, Harris is averaging 27 touches per game and this week gets to face a Detroit Lions defense that has struggled at stopping the running back position. The Lions are allowing the second-most FanDuel points to running backs this season. The only concern here is the price is steep at $9,400 and Harris was added to the injury report late in the week which could limit his usage if this game gets out of hand.
Decision:
Based off of everything considered here, I’m going with Dalvin Cook. The Eagles ran the ball a staggering 37 times against the Chargers as their pass defense is very good and the way to beat them is on the ground.
Wide Receivers
There are a number of wide receivers in the mid-range that are intriguing on this slate to pair with Davante Adams.
Mike Evans- $7,400
With no Antonio Brown, Rob Gronkowski, and with Chris Godwin questionable, Mike Evans is an excellent play this week. Washington is allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season as their secondary has been absolutely abysmal. If Godwin is out, Evans is a must play this week and goes into the chalky category as well.
Diontae Johnson- $7,400
With Chase Claypool out, expect Diontae Johnson to be considered as a cash game play this week. This is a tricky one as Diontae Johnson is a possession receiver who has just three touchdowns on the season and only 7 targets in the red zone. The matchup is a good one as Johnson is essentially all that is left in Pittsburgh with no JuJu Smith-Schuster and no Claypool.
Terry McLaurin- $7,100
Tampa Bay is another funnel type defense where it is nearly impossible to consistently run on them, but opponents have had success throwing against this defense as they’ve allowed the eight-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. McLaurin has been somewhat disappointing this season, so he does come with some risk, but when he is on, he is one of the best in the NFL as he has topped 100 yards in three games this season.
Tyler Lockett- $7,100
Very similar to Terry McLaurin is Tyler Lockett who benefits from getting Russell Wilson back this week. Lockett much like McLaurin has been inconsistent this season, but has as much upside as any wide receiver on this slate. The matchup is a more difficult one than McLaurin as the Packers have only allowed three wide receivers all season to top 75 yards.
Keenan Allen- $7,200
Coming off of his best performance of the season, Keenan Allen has re-emerged as the number one passing target in Los Angeles after taking a back seat to Mike Williams earlier this season. Allen now has 9 targets or more in three of his last four games with the only game he failed to do so was against Cleveland in which the Browns simply could not handle Williams’ size. The Vikings have struggled against opposing wide receivers this season as they are coming off of back-to-back weeks in which they allowed the number one wide receiver to top 100 yards (Marquise Brown and Amari Cooper). 5 receivers have topped 100 yards on the season for the Vikings.
Decision:
Wanting to go in the mid-range here, I’m going with Mike Evans and Keenan Allen here. The key for this third wide receiver spot is to have a high floor even if I’m sacrificing some of the ceiling in McLaurin or Lockett. Johnson is a good play, but I believe Pat Freiermuth will be the beneficiary of Chase Claypool’s departure as Johnson may some additional possession type receptions, but at $7,400 is too expensive to fit in the lineup.
LINEUPS-
SAMPLE ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH- (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 132.9)
- QB Josh Allen, BUF, $8,700
- RB DErnest Johnson, CLE, $5,400
- RB Mark Ingram, NO, $5,500
- WR Davante Adams, GB $8,700
- WR Mike Evans, TB, $7,400
- WR Keenan Allen, LAC, $7,200
- TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT, $5,100
- Flex RB Dalvin Cook, MIN $8,500
- TD Los Angeles Chargers, $3,300
SAMPLE ROSTER 2 ($60K) – FOOTBALLGUYS OPTIMAL LINEUP (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 138.8)
- QB Josh Allen, BUF, $8,700
- RB DErnest Johnson, CLE, $5,400
- RB Mark Ingram, NO, $5,500
- WR Mike Evans, TB, $7,400
- WR Terry McLaurin, WAS, $7,100
- WR Michael Pittman Jr, IND, $7,200
- TE Kyle Pitts, ATL, $6,900
- Flex RB James Conner, ARI, $7,000
- TD Arizona Cardinals, $4,800
SAMPLE ROSTER 3 ($60K) – SMALL GPP- ATL/DAL Stack (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 130.4)
- QB Matt Ryan, ATL, $7,300
- RB Mark Ingram, NO, $5,500
- RB DErnest Johnson, CLE, $5,400
- WR Justin Jefferson, MIN, $7,500
- WR Mike Evans, TB, $7,400
- WR Michael Pittman Jr, IND, $7,200
- TE Kyle Pitts, ATL, $6,900
- Flex RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL, $8,000
- TD Arizona Cardinals, $4,800
