*Statistics cited are a blend of stats after Week 17 and Week 18 and rankings are reflective of all 32 teams*
Divisional Round Games
- Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans - Over/Under 47 - Spread Titans -3.5
- San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers - Over/Under 47 - Spread Packers -5.5
- Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Over/Under 48.5 - Spread Buccaneers -3
- Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs - Over/Under 53.5 - Spread Chiefs -1.5
Bengals at Titans
- Bengals:
- Offensive Rankings
- Overall DVOA: 18th
- Pass DVOA: 14th
- Run DVOA: 20th
- Points per game: 5th
- Yards per game: 9th
- Defensive Rankings
- Overall DVOA: 20th
- Pass DVOA: 24th
- Run DVOA: 11th
- Points per game: 17th
- Yards per game: 18th
- Point Differential Ranking: 8th (+84)
- Offensive Rankings
- Titans:
- Offensive Rankings
- Overall DVOA: 22nd
- Pass DVOA: 23rd
- Run DVOA: 15th
- Points per game: 15th
- Yards per game: 17th
- Defensive Rankings
- Overall DVOA: 9th
- Pass DVOA: 7th
- Run DVOA: 14th
- Points per game: 6th
- Yards per game: 12th
- Point Differential Ranking: 11th (+65)
- Offensive Rankings
This is the toughest matchup of the week for me to predict. The Titans convincingly earned the 1 seed in the AFC with impressive victories over the Chiefs, Bills, Rams, 49ers, Colts x2, Seahawks, and Saints. Tennessee repeatedly proved themselves this season, finishing with a 12-5 overall record and a 7-2 record at home. They consistently established their successful approach of ball-control offense and above-average defense. What gives me pause though is Ryan Tannehill ($5,800) only ranked 25th in pass yards per game (215.4) and 30th in pass touchdowns per game (1.1) from Weeks 1-17 despite missing Derrick Henry ($7,500) for eight weeks over that stretch. Tannehill has proven he's an above-average Quarterback but there are questions about whether he can turn it on if need be. The matchup sets up well though against a Bengals defense that ranks 20th in overall DVOA and 24th in pass DVOA.
All signs point to Derrick Henry returning and an official decision will reportedly be made on Friday. If active, Henry will be playing with a steel plate in his right foot. Henry hasn't played since Halloween and there are legitimate concerns about how he'll hold up, his workload, and how game flow will end up playing out on Saturday. Still, Henry was on a historic pace prior to injury, has a decent matchup against the Bengals, and if available in a win or go home scenario logic would lead me to believe Tennessee will give Henry as many touches as he can handle. This is a key decision for this slate and one we'll likely need to take a stand on in order to win tournaments. My stance: Fade Henry in Bengals win lineups and play some Henry in Titans win lineups.
The safe play is to pick the Titans to win this game but I just can't do it. Why? Joe Burrow ($6,600) is the trump card. Burrow ranked fifth in pass yards per game (288.2) and tied for sixth in pass touchdowns per game (2.1) from Weeks 1-17 and wrapped up the regular season throwing for 971 yards and eight touchdowns over a two-game stretch in Weeks 16 and 17 (He was rested in Week 18). If the Bengals are able to pass protect enough, Burrow has a chance to simply be the best player in the game and will Cincinnati to a W.
If the Bengals win through Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase ($7,100), Tee Higgins ($5,700), and Tyler Boyd ($4,800) all have a chance to post big games. Chase is clearly the best play as Burrow has locked in on him as the big-play threat. Chase saw the third-most deep targets (34) (Targets 20+ yards downfield) and deep receptions (15) in the regular season and dominated in the Wild Card Round, catching nine of 12 targets for 116 yards. But this is a perfect time to take advantage of recency bias and roster Higgins as a leverage play. Higgins averaged more targets per game than Chase in Weeks 1-17 (7.9 vs. 7.8). This game flow would also benefit Joe Mixon ($6,600), who ranked sixth in opportunities per game (21.3) from Weeks 1-17 but I'm way more into the pass catchers than I am Mixon.
If we're fading Derrick Henry in some lineups because of a projected Bengals victory, that means A.J. Brown ($6,200) offers tantalizing upside against a Bengals defense that ranks 20th in overall DVOA and 24th in pass DVOA. Brown saw 48 more targets than any other Titan and it's playoff time, so odds are Brown will get fed if this game is close. And Henry's presence alone could end up being a bigger plus for Brown than Henry himself since it will likely open up the play-action passing game. Tannehill and Brown are deadly in the play-action game and Brown is a threat to take every quick slant to the house. Julio Jones ($4,700) is seemingly healthy after his best performance of the season (five catches on nine targets for 58 yards and a touchdown) in the season finale and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($3,800) will be important as 49.1% of his targets came from the slot in the regular season.
49ers at Packers
- 49ers:
- Offensive Rankings
- Overall DVOA: 5th
- Pass DVOA: 5th
- Run DVOA: 5th
- Points per game: 13th
- Yards per game: 10th
- Defensive Rankings
- Overall DVOA: 8th
- Pass DVOA: 18th
- Run DVOA: 2nd
- Points per game: 13th
- Yards per game: 4th
- Point Differential Ranking: 12th (+62)
- Offensive Rankings
- Packers:
- Offensive Rankings
- Overall DVOA: 2nd
- Pass DVOA: 2nd
- Run DVOA: 8th
- Points per game: 10th
- Yards per game: 12th
- Defensive Rankings
- Overall DVOA: 19th
- Pass DVOA: 12th
- Run DVOA: 28th
- Points per game: 8th
- Yards per game: 11th
- Point Differential Ranking: 10th (+79)
- Offensive Rankings
This is my most confident pick: Packers win. And it largely comes down to the discrepancy in quality of Quarterback play between Aaron Rodgers ($7,100) and Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,200) and Green Bay having home-field advantage. Both offenses look very similarly successful in their offensive metrics listed above and that's, in part, because Kyle Shanahan is a genius. But Garoppolo only ranked 13th in pass yards per game (249.6) and 16th in pass touchdowns per game (1.4) from Weeks 1-17 while Rodgers ranked 9th (265.1) and third (2.3) in those metrics. The key for the 49ers will be their rushing success and if they can exploit a Packers run defense that ranked 28th in Run DVOA in the regular season, they'll be able to minimize Garoppolo's weaknesses and maximize their strengths. I'm skeptical they'll be able to find the success they need to win that game but that doesn't mean we should overlook this mismatch when building lineups. Elijah Mitchell ($5,800) ranked eighth in the entire league in opportunities per game from Weeks 1-17 in the regular season and saw 29 opportunities in last weekend's Wild Card win. And Deebo Samuel ($7,600) is valuable to San Francisco no matter the game flow. Samuel finished the regular season ranked third in total yards (1,770) and tied for seventh in total touchdowns (14). He has five+ rush attempts in nine straight games and just received a season-high ten rush attempts last week, which he turned into 72 rushing yards and a touchdown.
But if game flow does end up pushing Garoppolo to the air while trailing, George Kittle ($5,300) is a phenomenal tournament play as he's sure to be mildly owned due to recent poor performances. Looking beyond the box score, Kittle ran the most routes on the 49ers last week and on the road in cold temperatures, it just feels like a game where Kittle rises to the occasion. Brandon Aiyuk (5,200) and Jauan Jennings ($3,400) also make sense from the perspective of a 49ers loss, especially Jennings and his affordable price. Jennings has run 44 routes over the past two games.
On the other side, Aaron Rodgers likely exploits a 49ers defense that ranked 18th in pass DVOA during the regular season. Clearly, that would mean Davante Adams ($8,500) likely feasts. Adams ranked second in targets per game (10.8) from Weeks 1-17 and finished the regular season ranked second in receptions (123), third in receiving yards (1,553), and fifth in receiving touchdowns (11). Meanwhile, Marquez Valdes-Scantling is listed as doubtful due to a back injury and likely won't play in this game. That should funnel more targets Allen Lazard's ($4,400) way. Lazard has seemingly taken the next step in his career and his connections with Rodgers as he's caught eight touchdowns over his past ten games. And Randall Cobb ($3,100) returns to the lineup this week. Cobb will be an afterthought for most because he's missed time due to injury but this is a reminder Rodgers and Cobb don't need practice reps together in order to trust each other when it matters most. These two have so much history together and Rodgers himself is literally the only reason Cobb is currently a Green Bay Packer. Rodgers likely wanted Cobb on the team for these upcoming playoff moments. And Aaron Jones ($6,800) and A.J. Dillon ($5,100) are both solid options. I expect Jones to be leaned on heavily not just on the ground but through the air as well. He's my preferred play of the two.
Rams at Buccaneers
- Rams:
- Offensive Rankings
- Overall DVOA: 6th
- Pass DVOA: 8th
- Run DVOA: 12th
- Points per game: 9th
- Yards per game: 6th
- Defensive Rankings
- Overall DVOA: 5th
- Pass DVOA: 5th
- Run DVOA: 4th
- Points per game: 15th
- Yards per game: 16th
- Point Differential Ranking: 6th (+88)
- Offensive Rankings
- Buccaneers:
- Offensive Rankings
- Overall DVOA: 1st
- Pass DVOA: 1st
- Run DVOA: 4th
- Points per game: 2nd
- Yards per game: 1st
- Defensive Rankings
- Overall DVOA: 11th
- Pass DVOA: 8th
- Run DVOA: 12th
- Points per game: 10th
- Yards per game: 14th
- Point Differential Ranking: 4th (+158)
- Offensive Rankings
This is a great matchup between two of the best teams and Quarterbacks in the NFL. Tom Brady ($6,800) ranked first in both pass yards per game (311.9) and pass touchdowns per game (2.5) and Matthew Stafford ranked second in both pass yards per game (290.5) and pass touchdowns per game (2.4) from Weeks 1-17. The main difference we see in the above metrics is the gap in point differential. Yet, with Brady missing both Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown and Leonard Fournette likely active but operating at less than 100%, this matchup feels about as even as possible. My lean is a Rams victory but I'm not sure locking in game flow is all that necessary in this one. Both Quarterbacks should get theirs regardless and both offenses prefer to stick with a balanced approach unless the game gets way out of hand.
Leonard Fournette's ($5,700) status remains up in the air although reports are he'll likely be active if he is able to get through Friday and Saturday without any setbacks. Fournette ranked 11th in the league in opportunities per game (18.9) from Weeks 1-17 and finished with the 30th most receptions (69) in the entire league over that span. A dual-threat with touchdown upside, Fournette is worth being rostered if he's active, especially since Bruce Arians has reported Fournette will not be active until he can be "full go" and "open it up." If Fournette is active, that's a positive sign the team believes Fournette is capable of handling 20+ touches. However, regardless of Fournette's status, this appears to be shaping up as a very favorable spot for Giovani Bernard ($5,000). Bernard caught nine of ten targets for 51 yards and a touchdown against the Rams back in Week 3 in a favorable passing game script since Tampa Bay lost the game. The Buccaneers could lose again. In fact, I'm predicting they do, but I don't envision Bernard being reliant on that specific game script in order to find success on Sunday. Chris Godwin is out, Antonio Brown was released, Leonard Fournette is likely going to be less than 100%, and both Cyril Grayson and Breshad Perriman did not practice on either Wednesday or Thursday. I believe Bernard will operate as the WR3 for Brady since his game fits exactly the way Brady likes to play. A reliable target near the line of scrimmage, allowing Brady to surgically pick the defense apart.
Mike Evans ($6,800) is now Brady's clear-cut WR1 and dominated in that role last week, catching nine of ten targets for 117 yards and a touchdown in last week's Wild Card win. But a matchup with Jalen Ramsey is on tap this week so expectations should be tempered a little bit. That could funnel more targets toward Rob Gronkowski ($5,800). Prior to last week's dominating victory in a matchup where he wasn't necessarily needed despite finding the end zone, Gronkowski averaged 8.4 targets per game in eight contests to end the year after returning from injury mid-season.
On the Rams side of things, we know how special Cooper Kupp ($8,600) is. More passing volume in a competitive matchup this week should mean even more receptions and fantasy points for Kupp. Here are the other pass catcher's targets over the past four games including last week's Wild Card win: Tyler Higbee ($4,000) 27, Odell Beckham Jr/a> ($5,300) 24, and Van Jefferson ($4,200) 15. Higbee and Beckham are separating themselves from Jefferson from a pure target volume standpoint but Jefferson still does offer big-play upside as he showed again last week catching his only target for 41 yards. Beckham reminded us last week he has an extra gear he can tap into when needed. And Higbee played on 100% of the snaps last week. He won't leave the field in this one and offers more upside than most realize, especially since he's more affordable than both Beckham and Jefferson.
Cam Akers ($5,500) is the best Running Back play on the Rams after turning 19 total opportunities into 95 total yards last week. I can not believe I just typed that sentence. Major props to Akers! Sony Michel ($5,300) can safely be faded as we should project Akers' workload to continue to increase, not decrease.
Bills at Chiefs
- Bills:
- Offensive Rankings
- Overall DVOA: 8th
- Pass DVOA: 12th
- Run DVOA: 6th
- Points per game: 3rd
- Yards per game: 5th
- Defensive Rankings
- Overall DVOA: 3rd
- Pass DVOA: 2nd
- Run DVOA: 15th
- Points per game: 2nd
- Yards per game: 1st
- Point Differential Ranking: 1st (+194)
- Offensive Rankings
- Chiefs:
- Offensive Rankings
- Overall DVOA: 4th
- Pass DVOA: 4th
- Run DVOA: 10th
- Points per game: 4th
- Yards per game: 3rd
- Defensive Rankings
- Overall DVOA: 24th
- Pass DVOA: 22nd
- Run DVOA: 19th
- Points per game: 13th
- Yards per game: 26th
- Point Differential Ranking: 5th (+116)
- Offensive Rankings
The obvious game of the week will rightfully be saved for last as the Bills and Chiefs will kick off Sunday night. Make literally any stack you want in this game and you'll have a chance to finish at the top of the leaderboard. I lean toward Patrick Mahomes II ($7,300) over Josh Allen ($7,600) because this game is in Kansas City and Mahomes has a slight advantage over Allen in both pass yards per game (285.6 vs. 260.5) and pass touchdowns per game (2.2 vs. 2.1) from Weeks 1-17 in the regular season. But Allen has the higher fantasy upside thanks to his legs. Allen has run for 63+ yards in four straight games and is a good bet to be relied upon on the ground once again with everything on the line.
Tyreek Hill (6,600) didn't appear limited at all last week despite his reported heal injury and the missed playing time it caused in the last game of the regular season. Hill played on 77% of the offensive snaps and ran 35 routes, only one fewer than Travis Kelce ($6,500) who led the team. Kelce has now scored five touchdowns over his past four games and also threw a touchdown last week. This is the Kelce we remember! Routes run last week outside of Kelce and Hill: Demarcus Robinson ($3,600) 30, Byron Pringle ($4,200) 29, and Mecole Hardman ($3,900) 25. Pringle is the preferred play as he has had a nose for the end zone this season, scoring five times compared to a combined five touchdowns between Hardman and Robinson during the regular season. Pringle followed that up with two more touchdowns in the Wild Card win.
The Chiefs Running Back rotation will likely be impossible to know prior to kickoff but Darrel Williams is trending toward missing the game or simply not playing much, if at all, after not practicing on both Wednesday and Thursday. Meanwhile, Clyde Edwards-Helaire (5,200) is trending toward playing after practicing in full on both Wednesday and Thursday. This currently projects as a rotation between Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon ($4,800). McKinnon has always been a solid player with extra juice than the average Running Back when healthy and he reminded everyone of that last Sunday night. McKinnon took full advantage of his first legitimate playing time of the season, turning 18 total opportunities into 142 total yards and a touchdown. My projection: McKinnon plays around 60% of the offensive snaps compared to around 40% for Edwards-Helaire. That would make McKinnon a solid play here.
On the Buffalo side, Devin Singletary ($5,900) had seen 21.5 opportunities over his past four games entering the playoffs and he kept his positive momentum rolling in the Wild Card round, turning 20 total opportunities into 94 total yards and two touchdowns. Singletary has now scored eight touchdowns over his past five games and scored two touchdowns in three straight contests. Singletary has a decent matchup here against a Chiefs defense that ranked 19th in Run DVOA during the regular season.
This could be the eruption spot for Stefon Diggs ($6,500) though as targets will likely narrow and be funneled toward Diggs in a matchup that projects to be much more competitive than a week ago. The new narrative is that Allen is spreading the ball around but let's remember Diggs finished the regular season with the fifth-most targets (164) in the league. Here are the routes run from last week for all other Bills' pass-catchers: Dawson Knox ($4,900) 29, Gabriel Davis ($4,600) 18, Emmanuel Sanders ($4,100) 16, Isaiah McKenzie ($3,500) 12, and Cole Beasley ($4,000) 8. Based on last week, it would be a huge mistake to play Beasley. And rather than messing with Davis or Sanders this week, I'm more interested in McKenzie due to his affordable price and his likely increased involvement. Knox plays on almost every offensive snap and is a very solid play.
Key Injuries and Suspensions
- Chris Godwin OUT, Antonio Brown CUT, and both Cyril Grayson and Breshad Perriman did NOT practice on Wednesday or Thursday - Upgrade Mike Evans, Rob Gronkowski, Giovani Bernard, Tyler Johnson, and Scott Miller
- Derrick Henry IN - Upgrade Derrick Henry
- Leonard Fournette likely IN if he gets through Friday and Saturday with no setbacks and Ronald Jones II likely OUT - Upgrade Giovani Bernard and Ke'Shawn Vaughn if Fournette is out or less than 100%
- Darrel Williams did NOT practice on Wednesday or Thursday and Clyde Edwards-Helaire likely IN - Upgrade Jerick McKinnon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling Doubtful and Randall Cobb IN - Upgrade Davante Adams, Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, Aaron Jones, Josiah Deguara, and Marcedes Lewis
- Rams S Jordan Fuller OUT - Upgrade Buccaneers offense
Favorite Tournament Stacks and Game Correlation Plays
- Patrick Mahomes II, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and Jerick McKinnon
- Patrick Mahomes II, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and Devin Singletary
- Patrick Mahomes II, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and Stefon Diggs
- Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Aaron Jones, Randall Cobb, and George Kittle
- Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Aaron Jones, Allen Lazard, and George Kittle
- Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins, and A.J. Brown
- Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, and Tyreek Hill
- Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, and Travis Kelce