Cracking DraftKings Week 15

Photo: USA Today Sports

Rescheduled Games No Longer on the Main Slate

• Washington Football Team at Philadelphia Eagles
• Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams

Favorite Games

• None

Favorite Additional Spots

• 49ers at home vs. the Falcons - Implied Team Total 27.75
• Cardinals on the road against the Lions - Implied Team Total 30
• Packers on the road against the Ravens - Implied Team Total 25.25
• Dolphins at home vs. the Jets - Implied Team Total 25.25
• Bills at home vs. the Panthers - Implied Team Total 28.25
• Cowboys on the road against the Giants - Implied Team Total 27.5
• Jaguars at home vs. the Texans - Implied Team Total 22.25

CASH GAMES

Quarterbacks

Despite an injury scare earlier in the week, Josh Allen is all systems go for Week 15 playing at home against a struggling Panthers defense. The 7-6 Bills are now in must-win territory and will rely on Allen just like they have all season to deliver a victory. Allen ranks ninth in pass yards per game (271.1) and fifth in pass touchdowns per game (2.2) and has 531 rush yards and four rush touchdowns on the year as well.

I still think Jimmy Garoppolo is an average player being propped up by Kyle Shanahan but whether I'm right or wrong, Garoppolo deserves props for his 2021 season. Garoppolo leads a 49ers offense that ranks sixth in overall DVOA and seventh in DVOA and is in an incredible spot here at home against a Falcons defense that ranks 30th in overall DVOA and 29th in pass DVOA. Elijah Mitchell will miss another game as well which projects to push the offensive game plan a bit more toward Garoppolo's arm.

Running Backs

Aaron Jones has only played on 49% and 45% of the Packers' offensive snaps over the past two weeks but he still has the juice. He showcased his dual-threat capability last week scoring a touchdown both on the ground and through the air. The Packers are seven-point favorites against a Ravens defense that ranks 23rd in overall DVOA.

Najee Harris ranks third in opportunities per game (24) and will use his dual-threat skill set to attack a Titans defense that ranks 18th in run DVOA. The Steelers are one-point home favorites.

Tony Pollard is Questionable after missing last week due to a torn plantar fascia in his left foot. Meanwhile, Ezekiel Elliott ranks 13th in opportunities per game (18.5) and saw 18 opportunities last week. Either way, Elliott will be the lead Running Back against a Giants defense that ranks 27th in run DVOA. The Cowboys are 10.5 point favorites against a Giants defense planning on starting Mike Glennon.

Cordarrelle Patterson's total opportunities over the past three weeks: 19, 18, 21. Patterson is in the discussion for fantasy MVP of the 2021 season as he continues to be Atlanta's top offensive weapon. Patterson has a tough matchup on tap against the 49ers run defense but San Francisco has proven vulnerable in the passing game so perhaps Arthur Smith optimizes Patterson's upside in the receiving game a bit more in this one.

Wide Receivers

Baltimore's defense only ranks 23rd in overall DVOA and 26th in pass DVOA and recently lost Cornerback, Marlon Humphrey, for the season. Davante Adams ranks third in targets per game (10.7) and is in a great position to turn his volume into massive production in this one.

Elijah Mitchell will miss another game which means Deebo Samuel is once again in line to be a dual-threat producer for a great 49ers offense playing at home against a Falcons defense that ranks 30th in overall DVOA, 29th in pass DVOA, and 23rd in run DVOA. The 49ers Implied Team Total of 27.75 is the fifth highest of the entire week, so Samuel is a good bet to find pay dirt at least once.

The 7-6 Bills are now in must-win territory and will rely on the passing offense just like they have all season to deliver a victory. That should mean a lot of Stefon Diggs, who ranks ninth in targets per game (9.3).

Diontae Johnson ranks second in the league in targets per game (10.8) yet is priced as a second-tier receiver. Johnson is a solid cash play based on volume alone and the matchup against Tennessee isn't a tough one either.

Brandin Cooks ranks tied for 13th in the league in targets per game (8.4) yet is priced at only $5,800 in a favorable matchup against a Jaguars defense that ranks 29th in overall DVOA and 31st in pass DVOA. The Texans don't have a reliable running game and the one thing the Jaguars defense can do reasonably well is defend the run. Look for Cooks to be busy on Sunday.

Tight Ends

Kittle has seen 27 targets over the past two weeks and turned them into 21 receptions, 332 receiving yards, and three touchdowns. He now gets to play at home against a Falcons defense that ranks 30th in overall DVOA and 29th in pass DVOA.

Mark Andrews has seen at least eight targets in six straight games and ranks tied for 13th in the entire league in targets per game (8.4). Regardless of who is behind center for the Ravens, Andrews projects to be needed in a big way to keep pace with Aaron Rodgers.

Zach Ertz is listed as questionable so this is one to keep an eye on. But it sounds like he's going to play and if so, he projects to benefit from the absence of DeAndre Hopkins ins a great matchup against a Lions defense that ranks 31st in overall DVOA and 30th in pass DVOA.

Team Defenses

Mike Glennon projects to start for the Giants, who have the third-lowest Implied Team Total (17) of the week. The Cowboys have one of the best defensive lines in football and are 10.5 point favorites.

Zach Wilson has been a mistake machine, throwing 11 interceptions and being sacked 28 times in only nine games. He now has to play on the road against a good Dolphins defense. The Jets have the lowest Implied Team Total (15.75) of the week. The Dolphins are 9.5 point home favorites.

GPPs

Quarterbacks

At first glance, Aaron Rodgers playing on the road in Baltimore doesn't look great. And that makes Rodgers a great tournament play since that initial gut reaction is dead wrong. Rodgers has been incredible once again this season, leading a Packers offense that ranks second in both overall DVOA and pass DVOA. And the Ravens defense has been decimated by injuries this year, most recently losing Cornerback Marlon Humphrey. This is a big reason why Baltimore's defense only ranks 23rd in overall DVOA and 26th in pass DVOA.

Kyler Murray struggled in prime time last week and just lost DeAndre Hopkins. Good. Push ownership elsewhere because Murray is in a phenomenal spot against a Lions defense that ranks 31st in overall DVOA and 30th in pass DVOA. Murray's upside is on par, and possibly higher than every other Quarterback in the league thanks to his scintillating dual-threat skill set, which should be on full display this week.

Tua Tagovailoa provides significant salary savings, which is very appealing in this incredible spot at home against a Jets defense that ranks dead last in both overall DVOA and pass DVOA. A steady presence making a better real-life Quarterback than a fantasy one, odds are Tagovailoa provides another good but not great stat line. But if there's any defense that can prop up an accurate field general like Tagovailoa for a spike week, it's the Jets.

Running Backs