Before explaining why targeting Cincinnati Bengals players in your draft could be a league-winning strategy, let’s quickly talk about why it makes sense to invest time and effort into predicting the 2021 breakout offenses.
Broadly speaking, players who greatly outproduce their fantasy ADP fall into one of two categories:
- They earn a much bigger role in their team’s offense than expected, either due to injury (Mike Davis) or generally exceeding expectations (Justin Jefferson).
- The player’s role is as expected, but the overall offense outperforms expectations, leading to a bigger fantasy pie (Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs).
The focus of this series of articles is on the second category of players. Our goal is to predict the offenses with the best shot to massively exceed expectations in 2021. If we can do so, league winners can be found.
Recent History
In recent seasons, approximately three NFL teams each year have scored at least 33% more points than they did the previous season (13 teams total over the last four years). Most of these huge jumps in offensive production were unexpected and led to the key players on these teams massively outperforming their fantasy ADP. A draft-day focus on these teams was a league-winning strategy.
Look no further than the 2020 Buffalo Bills as an example:
- Buffalo went from scoring 19.6 PPG in 2019 to 29.9 in 2020, an improvement of 10.3 points per game.
- Josh Allen was being drafted in Round 8 as the QB10. He finished as the QB1 with nearly 5,000 total yards and 45 total touchdowns.
- Stefon Diggs was going off the board in Round 5 as the WR21. He finished as the WR3 with 127 catches for 1,535 yards.
- In Week 16, the duo of Allen (35.5) and Diggs (41.5) combined for 77 fantasy points (PPR), virtually guaranteeing a fantasy championship if you drafted both and made the finals.
Focus on Talented Young Quarterbacks
Many of the 13 teams in the last four seasons that made huge offensive strides did so largely due to a young quarterback making the leap to elite.
Allen was a league-winner and the overall QB1 last year, but he is far from the only young quarterback to make the leap in recent years:
- In 2019, Lamar Jackson lapped the field and finished well ahead of the pack as the QB1. He was being drafted as the QB10 in Round 8 going into the year.
- In 2018, Patrick Mahomes II finished as the QB1, over 60 points ahead of the closest competition. He was being drafted as the QB15 in Round 10.
While Allen, Jackson, and Mahomes are the best recent examples of young quarterbacks unexpectedly exploding into fantasy superstars, there have been several other young quarterbacks who led their teams to big year-over-year scoring improvements. Jared Goff in 2017, Baker Mayfield in 2018, and Kyler Murray in 2019 led their offense to at least 50% more points than the previous season.
None of the three young quarterbacks who finished as fantasy QB1 were drafted higher than QB10 going into their breakout seasons.
All About Burrow
While we will discuss some other factors that point to the Bengals as a prime candidate for an offensive explosion in 2021, the main reason we should be targeting Bengals in our fantasy drafts is Joe Burrow. We should be looking for young quarterbacks being drafted outside of that top tier (Burrow’s ADP is QB12) who have the pedigree, surrounding pieces, and skill set to become an elite fantasy performer. Burrow checks every box.
We know about Burrow’s pedigree. He won a national championship at LSU, breaking many SEC records along the way. He was the Heisman winner and #1 overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. He showed flashes of greatness as a rookie before his season was cut short due to a torn ACL.
In addition to the above, the reports on Burrow’s growth this offseason point to him as a prime candidate to make a huge leap in his sophomore season. Quarterback guru Jordan Palmer worked extensively with Josh Allen last offseason, helping him improve his accuracy. This was a primary reason for his 2020 breakthrough. Palmer has been working with Burrow this offseason and has a prediction for 2021:
“Joe Burrow is gonna go off this year. He is going to be a major story and here’s why..” And how Josh Allen solved his accuracy issues> A deep dive into cutting-edge technology, biomechanics and QBs:
— Bruce Feldman (@BruceFeldmanCFB) July 25, 2021
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As Palmer noted, Burrow has "found a way to create more energy on the ball." Anecdotal reports from OTAs included teammates and coaches raving about Burrow throwing with much more velocity. “When we first got back, he threw me a slant, and I was like, ‘oh, s--t!’ He came back way stronger. The ball’s got a little bit more zip, and they’re good,” noted Tee Higgins. Palmer has hard data to back up his claims. Burrow’s passes have been consistently clocking in at 54 MPH this offseason. For context, Palmer and his tech guru note that Josh Allen was measured with an exit velocity of 53 miles per hour. By his estimation, most NFL quarterbacks throw in the range of 47-52 mph. College QBs typically are between 45-50 mph. From the data Palmer’s group collected in working with Burrow during draft prep last offseason, his exit velocity never registered above 48.5 miles per hour. Increased velocity, better accuracy on deep passes, and better surrounding talent were amongst the few things holding Burrow back as a rookie. We have reason to believe each has been solved heading into 2021. Adding elite velocity to Burrow's accuracy, pocket presence, and improvisational abilities could make him one of the NFL's top players and a dark horse MVP candidate.
The Surrounding Talent
Burrow making a leap is the primary factor for optimism regarding the Bengals offense. The arrival of JaMarr Chase, expected improvement from Tee Higgins, and the steady veteran presence of Tyler Boyd are also major reasons to believe in the upside of this unit.
JaMarr Chase is considered by many to be the best wide receiver prospect in recent history. Justin Jefferson took the NFL by storm in 2020. His younger teammate, 19-year old JaMarr Chase, outperformed him when both played together two seasons ago. Early returns from OTAs have Chase quickly displaying the work ethic, athleticism, and connection with Burrow that led to magic in 2019 for LSU.
Was a very weak rookie WR class. But reminder that Ja'Marr Chase is an athletic freak who went 84-1780-20 from Joe Burrow when we last saw him in 2019. https://t.co/jFKghQDWsm
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) July 23, 2021
The biggest deficiency in the Bengals passing offense last season was a lack of success on deep passes. Burrow was partially at fault, but there is reason to believe he will be more consistent. Poor pass protection also contributed. Improved offensive line play is likely due to the healthy return of multiple starters and the additions of Riley Reiff and Jackson Carman. Lastly, the substandard performance of A.J. Green had a cascading impact all around. If Chase can prove a dangerous deep threat and playmaker with the ball in his hands, it opens up everything else.
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— Cincinnati Bengals (@Bengals) July 26, 2021
Bengals Projections at Different Levels of Optimism
You have heard the case for the Bengals making a big leap forward in 2021. The Footballguys consensus projection is for the Bengals to score 23 points per game. You can view how the fantasy projections would change with more optimistic PPG projections using the tool below.