#Trendspotting: Week 14

Photo: USA Today Sports

READER'S GUIDE

As we approach the midway point of the 2020 season, let's dig into a variety of trends across the league. With this broader and more in-depth iteration of #Trendspotting, we will primarily focus on season-long formats as we decipher which trends that developed throughout the first seven weeks are here to stay in the long-term.

This week, we'll discuss the following topics:

• Tweets of the Week
• A Deep Dive into the Trenches

Note: Be sure to follow me on Twitter @StillZam to keep up-to-date with any and all tweets regarding updates to this article, or any other piece I write.

Tweets of the Week

PFF's Highest-Graded Guard. CLE averaging 181.7 rushing YPG when he plays. The 3 games he missed were their 3 lowest rushing total games (101, 82, 75). @EliotCrist has been all over this. https://t.co/r1ZbQebcXP

— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) December 8, 2020

Commentary and Action Items:

• Wyatt Teller ranks amongst the league's best offensive linemen, and his impact on the Browns' rushing attack this season has been obvious. In games without Teller active, Cleveland's rushing attack has been significantly less efficient. Additionally, the Cleveland Browns go up against the Baltimore Ravens' 4th-ranked run defense, according to DVOA allowed, on Monday night. With fantasy football playoffs underway, opting to bench Kareem Hunt, whose fantasy value is largely derived from his incredibly efficient per-carry totals this season, is likely the optimal decision. On the other hand, Nick Chubb is likely an un-benchable running back, given the steep presumed drop-off between him and the next-best option at the position on season-long rosters. On the Thursday-through-Monday and Primetime DFS slates, the Cleveland backfield should be an afterthought in most formats.

Myles Gaskin is seventh among all non-QB with 20 opportunities inside of the 10-yard line, yet ranks 72nd in fantasy points in that area of the field (17.8).

— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) December 7, 2020

Commentary and Action Items:

• Last weekend, Myles Gaskin made his return to the Miami Dolphins' starting lineup against the Cincinnati Bengals and tallied an impressive 141 yards from scrimmage. His fantasy production, however, left much to be desired, as he underperformed in goal-to-go situations. Despite the points he left on the table in Week 13, Gaskin's playing time and usage within Miami's attack signal that he could be a league-winning fantasy asset throughout the final weeks of the 2020 season. Gaskin has recorded at least 20 touches in each of his last 4 games and 5 out of his last 6. Despite his unsustainably poor production in goal-to-go situations, Gaskin has still posted 14.3 fantasy points-per-game this season. Also, Miami's remaining schedule is exceptionally soft for running back matchups. All four of the Dolphins' remaining opponents rank in the bottom-half of the NFL in rushing DVOA allowed this season. Myles Gaskin should be a mainstay of season-long lineups throughout the playoffs, given his remarkable playing time, usage rates, and matchups left this season. Additionally, Gaskin warrants consideration in all formats of DFS contests this weekend against the Kansas City Chiefs, who rank 30th in the league in rushing DVOA allowed.

Pete Carroll insists Week 14 will be the first time Chris Carson (foot) will get “a full load” since returning from injury. Carson most recently handled 16-of-23 backfield touches in Sunday’s loss to New York.https://t.co/DrnhozTHvq

— John Daigle (@notJDaigle) December 9, 2020

Commentary and Action Items:

• Last week, it was noted that Russ is no longer cooking in Seattle's offense. The team's passing rate has dropped precipitously in recent weeks, which aligns closely with the return of Chris Carson. However, Carson has not yet played more than 60-percent of Seattle's offensive snaps since he returned from injury. Pete Carroll insists that Week 14, against the New York Jets, will be Carson's first game with a "full load" since his injury, which increases his fantasy value significantly. Last week, in a negative game script against the New York Giants, Carson tallied 16 touches on 19 scoring opportunities. If he sees an increase in usage within Seattle's offense, as a "full load" would imply, Carson is an elite option at the running back position against the New York Jets. At $6,900 on DraftKings, he is a great pivot away from players like Austin Ekeler, who will likely garner much more attention at a similar price.

Chiefs have gone an absurd 70% pass-heavy over last five games. In this span...

Patrick Mahomes II is averaging 383 yards per game

Travis Kelce has 42/613/3 on 56 targets (that's 24.3 fantasy points/game)

Tyreek Hill has 43/640/8 on 63 targets (could've had 2 more TDs vs. DEN)

— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) December 7, 2020

Commentary and Action Items:

• In recent weeks, the Kansas City Chiefs' offense has turned into one of the pass-heaviest units in the NFL. Andy Reid has seemingly turned over the keys to the Ferrari to Patrick Mahomes II, and Kansas City is reaping the benefits. The Chiefs have not lost since Week 5, and their astonishingly consistent passing attack is the primary factor driving their success. While this offense is littered with explosive and capable pass-catchers, there are two main beneficiaries of this increase in passing volume. Travis Kelce it far and away the number-one fantasy tight end in the NFL this season. Kelce has scored at least 16 fantasy points in 7 out of his last 8 games, and at least 22.5 fantasy points in 6 out of his last 8. He is an expensive option for DFS lineups this weekend, but he warrants the $7,400 price tag on DraftKings. Consider locking Kelce into cash-game lineups this weekend against the Miami Dolphins. On the outside, Tyreek Hill's production has skyrocketed in recent weeks. Hill has posted at least 25 fantasy points in 4 out of his last 5 games, and he would have surpassed that mark if either of his would-be touchdown receptions, which were waved off for various reasons, counted on Sunday night. Much like Kelce, Hill's price on DraftKings has spiked up to $8,500, but in non-Kelce cash-game lineups, Hill is a strong way to gain exposure to the league's number-one passing attack.

DEEP DIVE INTO THE TRENCHES

Best and Worst Offensive Lines

BEST

1. Green Bay Packers | 14.0% pressure rate
2. Pittsburgh Steelers | 15.0% pressure rate
3. Indianapolis Colts | 15.5% pressure rate
4. New Orleans Saints | 15.7% pressure rate
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 16.8% pressure rate

WORST

1. New York Jets | 28.9% pressure rate
2. Los Angeles Chargers | 27.8% pressure rate
3. Philadelphia Eagles | 27.4% pressure rate
4. New York Giants | 27.3% pressure rate
5. Seattle Seahawks | 27.1% pressure rate

Commentary and Action Items

• Despite some mediocre quarterbacking across the teams with the top-five offensive lines in the NFL, all five teams bost above-average passing attacks this season. Most notably, the New Orleans Saints have maintained an impressive passing game with Taysom Hill, a former utility man, under center for the team. Hill and Michael Thomas have apparently built chemistry throughout Hill's time as the number-one quarterback. Moving forward, both players are strong season-long and DFS selections at their current prices. Elsewhere throughout the top-five offensive lines, Davante Adams jumps off the page as the best wide receiver on the Week 14 slate of games. His $9,300 price tag is undeniably tough to stomach on DraftKings, but Adams has found the endzone in every game he has started and finished this season. Confidently lock Davante Adams into cash-game lineups if you can find the requisite salary-savers elsewhere to make his hefty price tag work. Lastly, Diontae Johnson is the number-one receiving option on the Primetime slate of games this weekend against the Buffalo Bills. Johnson has commanded at least 10 targets in all but 1 game he has started and finished this season, and his after-the-catch talents give him an exceptional ceiling. Although drops have plagued him in recent weeks, expect Johnson to bounce back with an impressive Week 14 showing in a potential Sunday night shootout against the Buffalo Bills.
• On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Philadelphia Eagles are throwing Jalen Hurts into the fire this week. After a slew of horrific performances from Carson Wentz and the Philadelphia Eagles' passing attack, Jalen Hurts will get his shot as the team's starter this weekend against the New Orleans Saints. While Hurts is a young and mobile quarterback with immense upside down the line, expecting a strong showing from him behind a patchwork offensive line is unreasonable. Temper expectations for the entire Philadelphia passing game this weekend. None of the team's pass-catchers are sure-fire starters in season-long formats, and their prices are not low enough on DFS sites to warrant serious consideration outside of large-field GPPs. Additionally, neither New York offense projects to post impressive numbers through the air at any point in the near future. For the Giants, Colt McCoy is the epitome of a game manager at the quarterback position. Filling in for Daniel Jones, McCoy has proven incapable of breaking down a defense through the air, and with him at the helm, none of the Giants' pass-catchers are strong starting options in any format of fantasy football. For the Jets, the tank is in full effect, and the team's passing attack has remained unproductive despite consistently favorable game scripts. The Jets would typically be expected to post impressive raw passing totals, given they are constantly playing from behind this year. Yet, this has not been the case, and the only viable pass-catchers in this offense are Denzel Mims and Breshad Perriman, whose prices on DraftKings remain unchanged despite recent popularity as bargain bin wide receivers. Do not expect a gaudy stat line from either player, but at about $4,000 for each player, they do not need to do much to reach value.

Best and Worst Defensive Lines

BEST

1. Pittsburgh Steelers | 33.8% pressure rate
2. New England Patriots | 27.2% pressure rate
3. Denver Broncos | 25.8% pressure rate
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 25.6% pressure rate
5. New Orleans Saints | 25.4% pressure rate

WORST

1. Cincinnati Bengals | 17.0% pressure rate
2. Tennessee Titans | 17.2% pressure rate
3. Cleveland Browns | 18.8% pressure rate
4. Chicago Bears | 18.8% pressure rate
5. Detroit Lions | 19.1% pressure rate

Commentary and Action Items:

• Expect both the Houston Texans and Green Bay Packers to have a field day through the air this weekend when they matchup against two of the worst pass rushes in the NFL. The Houston Texans go up against the Chicago Bears in Week 14, and a matchup against Deshaun Watson is the last thing the reeling Bears want to see on Sunday afternoon. Last week, Keke Coutee was unleashed upon the world, as he erupted for 141 yards on 9 targets and 8 receptions against the Indianapolis Colts. His price on DraftKings increased to $5,000, but given his expanded role in the team's passing attack and this soft matchup, he makes for a strong DFS selection this weekend. Also, at the quarterback position, Deshaun Watson is one of the premier top-end options that are worth paying up for at $7,600. Up north, the Green Bay Packers go up against the Detroit Lions in Week 14. The Lions, much like the Bears, are riding out a lost season headlined by the firing of head coach Matt Patricia. Expect Aaron Rodgers to shred the Lions' defense through the air in the dome of Ford Field this weekend. This also bolsters the case for Davante Adams as the high-end wide receiver worth building cash-games around on the Week 14 main slate of games.
• Conversely, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the New Orleans Saints have been dominant in the trenches this season. This weekend, the Saints go up against the Philadelphia Eagles, who, as previously mentioned, are turning to rookie second-round pick Jalen Hurts as their new starting quarterback. It is tough to imagine a worse matchup for Hurts to make his first career NFL start in, and Eagles fans are unlikely to be happy with the immediate returns in their first real taste of Jalen Hurts as the team's quarterback of the future. Elsewhere in the NFC South, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers play host to the Minnesota Vikings in Week 14. Minnesota's passing attack has been volatile this season, but the team's talented pass-catchers have made it a dangerous one. Expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to contain Minnesota's passing game in Week 14 thanks to an elite pass rush, making Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson GPP-only DFS options. Also, Kirk Cousins should not be a starter in season-long formats, aside from exceptionally deep leagues in this brutal matchup.