#Trendspotting: Week 11

Photo: USA Today Sports

READER'S GUIDE

As we approach the midway point of the 2020 season, let's dig into a variety of trends across the league. With this broader and more in-depth iteration of #Trendspotting, we will primarily focus on season-long formats as we decipher which trends that developed throughout the first seven weeks are here to stay in the long-term.

This week, we'll discuss the following topics:

• Tweets of the Week
• Trending Up or Trending Down?

Note: Be sure to follow me on Twitter @StillZam to keep up-to-date with any and all tweets regarding updates to this article, or any other piece I write.

Tweets of the Week

Jerry Jeudy's air yards over the last 3 weeks:

Week 8: 162 (1st among WRs)
Week 9: 193 (2nd)
Week 10: 135 (4th)

— Jeff Ratcliffe (@JeffRatcliffe) November 16, 2020

Commentary and Action Items

• After spending the better part of two full sections in last week's edition of #Trendspotting to Jerry Jeudy, who posted a moderate 4-68-0 stat line on the weekend, circling back to Jeudy's underlying metrics appears necessary. This is not to say last week's performance was worrying, but after noting everything going in his favor, a 10.8-point performance was not exactly what was expected of him. Fortunately, once again, Jeudy's targets he commanded were highly valuable. Down the line, it is not unreasonable to expect him to regularly convert these 130-air-yard afternoons into monster fantasy performances. This weekend, a difficult matchup against the Miami Dolphins should suppress his percent-rostered totals in tournaments on DraftKings. Therefore, Jeudy makes for an elite GPP option at a modest $5,300 price tag.

Jonathan Taylor's snap rate over the Colts last four games

Week 6 - 59%
Week 8 - 34%
Week 9 - 31%
Week 10 - 25%

— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) November 13, 2020

Commentary and Action Items

• The early-season hype train for Indianapolis' rookie running back has fully derailed 10 weeks into the year. Jonathan Taylor, even in favorable situations, is unable to stay on the field as an effective or efficient runner for the Colts. Additionally, the presence of specialists like Nyheim Hines, who is an excellent pass-catcher out of the backfield, and Jordan Wilkins, who is a pure runner awaiting his opportunity to shine with an increased workload, has muddied Taylor's path to fantasy stardom. Typically, situations like Taylor's work themselves out over time, and the cream rises to the top (of the depth chart.) In this case, Taylor was given every opportunity to succeed and cement himself as the Colts' bell-cow running back. However, his inefficiency in carrying the football has forced him to take a backseat to Hines and Wilkins in recent weeks. It is tough to imagine that head coach Frank Reich reverts back to Taylor as the team's lead-back in the coming weeks, barring an injury shaking up the team's depth chart. On a team whose coaching staff appears rightfully immune to the sunk-cost fallacy, Jonathan Taylor's opportunity to lead the Colts' backfield has likely passed, for the time being, leaving him an afterthought in most fantasy formats in the final weeks of the 2020 campaign.

Diontae Johnson has started AND not left early in five games this season. In those he's seen 10, 13, 15, 10 and 11 targets for a massive 28% share.

— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) November 16, 2020

Commentary and Action Items

• Diontae Johnson's 2020 season has been marred by injuries thus far. However, when Johnson has been on the field, he has regularly torched opposing secondaries as a primary feature of Pittsburgh's passing attack. Earlier this year, Johnson was a regular focal point of #Trendspotting, but after nagging injuries limited his production early on, all seemed lost for his potential breakout year. Now, entering Week 11, Johnson makes his long-awaited return to #Trendspotting. I know everyone was waiting with bated breath for another Diontae Johnson name-drop here, and the time has finally come after a string of dominant performances. In the sample of games that Adam Levitan referenced in his tweet, Diontae Johnson ranks 10th in the NFL in WOPR, proving he dominates Pittsburgh's offense in both volume and the value of targets. Overall, Johnson's natural ability to run the full route tree, getting open on short, intermediate, and deep routes, combined with his remarkable talents after-the-catch make for an exceptionally valuable wide receiver in all formats of fantasy football. Consider Diontae Johnson a top-10 fantasy wide receiver through the end of the season, as he is a player that can be relied upon to accumulate targets in bunches and stuff the stat sheet whenever he is healthy.

Trending Up or Trending Down?

As we enter the final weeks of the 2020 fantasy football regular season, I think it is necessary to take a broader look at the way this season is unfolding before our eyes in a few critical spots. Using this data and these trends, we will be able to ensure we have are in the best position to make a deep run into the playoffs. Consider making some last-ditch efforts to reshape your season-long rosters by either acquiring or parting ways with the players analyzed below.

Carolina's Offense

Trending Up: Curtis Samuel

Trending Down: Mike Davis

Mike Davis last three games without Christian McCaffrey:

1. 8.6 DraftKings points
2. 8.7 DraftKings points
3. 8.4 DraftKings points

Curtis Samuel last three games without Christian McCaffrey:

1. 17.3 DraftKings points
2. 21.4 DraftKings points
3. 4.2 DraftKings points

Commentary and Action Items:

• The first thing that jumps off the page when evaluating this pair of Carolina Panthers is the startling lack of production from Mike Davis, the team's bell-cow running back with Christian McCaffrey sidelined. Davis has followed up his hot start, which featured a trio of 20-point games out of the gate as the team's starter, with a slew of underwhelming performances. This downturn in production directly coincides with an uptick in production from Curtis Samuel, a wide receiver-running back hybrid for the Panthers. At first glance, this may appear to be a coincidence-- a bell-cow running back's production is not often directly linked to a team's third receiving option, right? In most cases, that would hold true. However, Carolina's offense is not built like most others. Curtis Samuel, who played running back in college, is lining up in the backfield more and more each week, and he is eating into Mike Davis' potential production, especially in the red zone. This critical loss of opportunity around the end zone lessens Davis' fantasy value significantly. Conversely, it makes Samuel, a listed wide receiver across all fantasy sites, a much more valuable asset. The versatility of Carolina's hybrid play-maker allows him to stretch the field in the passing game and carry the football out of the backfield in high-leverage situations. Down the home stretch of the 2020 season, consider selling high on Mike Davis, whose perceived value may be inflated given the recent news that Christian McCaffrey is likely sidelined for a few games. On the other hand, turn to Curtis Samuel as a high-upside number-three wide receiver or flex option for season-long leagues. In DFS, Mike Davis' price increase has likely moved him out of contention for most lineups, while Curtis Samuel is the prototypical GPP option. Samuel's big-play capabilities through the air, combined with the potentially-valuable work in the running game, provide massive upside for tournaments.

Wide Receivers in New Roles

Trending Up: Jakobi Meyers & Brandon Aiyuk

Jakobi Meyers last three weeks:

• 60-percent of total team air yards (1st in NFL)
• 42-percent of total targets (1st in NFL)
• 1.05 WOPR (1st in NFL)

Brandon Aiyuk last three weeks:

• 41-percent of total team air yards (10th in NFL)
• 31-percent of total targets (4th in NFL)
• 0.75 WOPR (6th in NFL)

Commentary and Action Items:

• Jakobi Meyers and Brandon Aiyuk, two recent revelations within their respective offenses, both appear likely to remain focal points of their team's respective passing attacks. In New England, Jakobi Meyers is dominating over his pass-catching peers at a rate unlike what any other receiver in the NFL has done in recent weeks. A recent knee injury to Julian Edelman, the team's aging slot receiver, has forced Jakobi Meyers into a larger role in the aerial attack, and he has excelled. Last week, I pointed out in the Tweets of the Week section that Jakobi Meyers was breaking out. It is safe to say, after another impressive performance against a top-tier defense in near-monsoon conditions, that Meyers has broken out and should remain a mainstay of the Patriots' offense down the stretch this season. Confidently start Jakobi Meyers down the stretch in all season-long fantasy football formats. Plan on him being a starting-caliber option in coming weeks and a potential league-winning acquisition. In DFS, Jakobi Meyers is an elite option for lineups of all formats. For further analysis regarding Meyers' DFS viability, consider reading The Sharp Report, where he is featured as the first of three Projected Sharp Plays this weekend.
• Out west, the San Francisco 49ers are dealing with injuries, especially within their receiving corps. The team's top two pass-catchers, George Kittle and Deebo Samuel, forced Brandon Aiyuk to rise to the top of the team's depth chart and fill in as their new number-one option. Aiyuk, a first-round pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, has the pedigree of a top-end NFL receiver, especially within Kyle Shanahan's creative offense that maximizes the play-making abilities of players like Aiyuk. The 49ers are on a bye this week, which could serve to suppress Aiyuk's fantasy value on the trade market. Additionally, the week off should allow for players like Deebo Samuel to potentially heal up and return to action, serving as another suppressant for the price Brandon Aiyuk can command in a trade. Consider making a buy-low bid for Aiyuk leading up to the final games of the fantasy football regular season with his trade value artificially deflating due to a variety of factors with minimal impact on his true fantasy value.

Trending Down: Mike Evans & Chris Godwin

Mike Evans last two weeks: 17 targets

Antonio Brown last two weeks: 13 targets

Chris Godwin last two weeks: 11 targets

Commentary and Action Items:

• The inclusion of Antonio Brown in Tampa Bay's passing attack could spell trouble for Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Evans and Godwin already had to deal with a rejuvenated Rob Gronkowski when battling for targets within the Buccaneers' passing game. Adding Antonio Brown into the mix will only serve to make the situation far messier than it already was. After a year on the sidelines, Antonio Brown stepped onto the field with the Buccaneers and immediately played over 75-percent of snaps in his debut with the team. This prompt inclusion within the team's gameplan leads one to believe that his role will only grow in time. Neither Mike Evans nor Chris Godwin was a reliable fantasy asset early this season. Adding a top-end on-field talent to the equation will make the battle for targets far more difficult than it already was, adding volatility to the equation and making both Godwin and Evans significantly less attractive players as we enter the final weeks of the 2020 regular season in fantasy football. Do not plan on Mike Evans or Chris Godwin being a staple of a league-winning lineup down the stretch this season. For some, that may mean pursuing a trade to offload these inconsistent producers onto a competitor's roster. For others, it may simply mean to plan on moving them to the bench unless tragedy strikes and they are absolutely needed down the line.

A Change in Play-Calling

Trending Up: Josh Reynolds

Josh Reynolds last three games

1. 8 targets, 4 catches, 52 receiving yards, and 1 touchdown
2. 9 targets, 4 catches, and 44 receiving yards
3. 10 targets, 8 catches, and 94 receiving yards

Commentary and Action Items

• In a crowded Los Angeles Rams' passing attack, Josh Reynolds appears to have finally carved out a role for himself in recent weeks. Reynolds' playing time is consistently higher than it has ever been before, regularly playing over three-quarters of the team's offensive snaps, and he is commanding targets when on the field. As shown above, across Reynolds' last three games, he has seen nine targets per game, the most of any three-game stretch in his career. The driving force behind this increase in usage and production is a change in the Rams' offense's play-calling profile. In recent weeks, the Rams offense has featured fewer two-tight end sets and more three-wide receiver sets, affording Josh Reynolds plenty of chances to stuff the stat sheet. This weekend, Josh Reynolds is particularly enticing in DFS, where he sits at just $3,900 on DraftKings. Given the root cause of this spike in production, there is reason to believe this is not a flash in the pan. Consider utilizing Josh Reynolds in all formats of contests on DraftKings this weekend, where his price lags far behind where his new role in Los Angeles' offense indicates it should be.

As always, please feel free to reach out to me on Twitter with any questions, comments, or concerns regarding anything either in this article or having to do with fantasy football as a whole this weekend