For the uninitiated, playing daily games on DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. Footballguys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “Tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of players at each position on DraftKings and make value-based recommendations for both your cash games and tournaments.
Below you will find a list of recommended players for both formats. GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.
TIPS AND PICKS
Let's take a deeper look into some of the players who I will be targeting for my cash game and tournament rosters this weekend. A short summary follows each respective table to fill in the gaps that led to the respective recommendations; that text represents only an overview of the methodology and rationale that goes into each recommendation. If you have questions about any of the recommendations or the process that led to them, please email me at john.lee@footballguys.com.
CASH GAMES
| NAME | OPP. | SALARY |
| Kyler Murray | BUF | $8,000 |
| Josh Allen | @ARZ | $7,500 |
Quarterbacks: There is plentiful value on this week's slate, so the right move is to spend up at the quarterback position to take advantage of the game in Arizona with a 57-point Vegas total. Both quarterbacks in this game are in play for all DFS formats (cash and tournament), but appear in this section because of their consistent performance week-in and week-out. Kyler Murray is the most expensive player at the position and, rightfully so, given the fact that he has scored 3x on this week's $8.0K salary every week this season. As has been discussed here previously, his rushing prowess solidifies his fantasy floor every week; he is the NFL's 8th-leading rusher to this point in the season and trails only Dalvin Cook and Todd Gurley in rushing touchdowns. With rushing scores in all-but-one game this season, he is the class of his position for cash games. If you cannot quite get to Murray's salary, look no further than the other side of the field in Phoenix, where Josh Allen will be slinging the ball to keep pace in this likely barnburner. Allen is coming off a 39.0-DK point, 415-passing yard performance against the Seahawks that saw him rush for a touchdown for the second consecutive week. On paper, the matchup against the Cardinals is mediocre, but Arizona has faced one elite quarterback all season when they allowed Russell Wilson to collect 35.9-DK points in Week #8. This matchup against a Bills squad averaging 26.9-points per game will test the full limits of their defense; with the offense flowing through Allen, look for him to easily deliver 3x value on his $7.5K salary.
| NAME | OPP. | SALARY |
| Alvin Kamara | SF | $8,200 |
| Aaron Jones | JAX | $7,100 |
| Duke Johnson Jr | @CLE | $5,000 |
| Mike Davis | TB | $4,000 |
Running Backs: You probably do not need to go there this week, but Alvin Kamara is certainly in play as a cash game selection at the running back position. With 60 receptions this season, Kamara is ranked 3rd in the league, ahead of Tyler Lockett, Terry McLaurin, and Davante Adams. Add in a gamescript that favors the run and Kamara represents an excellent cash (and GPP) option. In Green Bay, the weather forecast is projected to skew action towards the run, which obviously favors Aaron Jones and his reasonable $7.1K salary against the league's worst-ranked DVOA defense. Get plentiful shares of Aaron Jones, as he is probably the most likely player to score on Sunday's slate. Elsewhere, both Duke Johnson Jr and Mike Davis represent excellent value plays due to injuries ahead of them; Duke benefits from David Johnson's concussion while Davis will inherit an RB1 role after Christian McCaffrey hurt his shoulder in last week's game against the Chiefs. Both options are probably the best value on the slate and will appear in > 70% of rosters (Davis will be > 85% in cash games). For tournaments, the route is slightly less clear due to their respective popularity. Davis is going to be on over half of tournament rosters with Johnson being on approximately 25%; where Johnson is concern, go underweight...but Mike Davis could be the most difficult decision (for tournaments) of the 2020 season. His projections argue that he has > 80% chance of hitting GPP value, but the matchup against the Buccaneers is tough, as they have not allowed > 60-rushing yards to a running back yet this season and the Panthers' implied team total is only 22.5 points; if Robby Anderson and/or D.J. Moore score, there may not be enough meat left on the bone for Davis to hit GPP value despite his crazy-high projections. Because there is justification on both sides of the argument for Davis, you are advised to go with the crowd and get him into 50% of your tournament rosters and beat your opponents with other decisions.
| NAME | OPP. | SALARY |
| Stefon Diggs | @ARZ | $7,500 |
| Keenan Allen | @MIA | $7,100 |
| Tyler Lockett | @LAR | $6,500 |
| D.J. Moore | TB | $5,100 |
| Chris Conley | @GB | $3,000 |
Wide Receivers: With the value that is presenting itself at the running back position, you likely will not need to take too many chances at wide receiver this week. If you do, Chris Conley looks like the sharp cash game play at $3.0K due to Laviska Shenault's "out" designation on Friday's injury report; without 'Viska last week, Conley compiled a 7/52/0 stat line with Jake Luton at quarterback, which represents 4x this week's site-minimum salary. At the higher end, feel free to roll with Stefon Diggs, Keenan Allen, and Tyler Lockett in cash games. Diggs is the premier receiver for the Bills and should see plenty of action in Week #10's most anticipated game (56.5-point total). Allen continues to see double-digit targets each week and has scored in three of the previous four weeks, yet his salary seems perpetually in the sub-$8K range? Take advantage and just keep rostering him until DraftKings adjusts. Lastly, Tyler Lockett is in a bounce-back position after disappointing last week in Buffalo; Jalen Ramsey should contend with DK Metcalf while Lockett gets the easy underneath looks against the Rams.
| NAME | OPP. | SALARY |
| Darren Waller | DEN | $5,900 |
| Austin Hooper | HOU | $3,900 |
Tight Ends: A high- and low-end (salary) option at tight end exist for cash games this week. Darren Waller is priced for his role in the Raiders offense at $5.9K, but he also brings a double-digit scoring floor with that hefty salary. Across the entire season, Waller has score > 10-DK points on all-but-two games and has delivered cash game-value on this week's salary in half of his games. As for Austin Hooper, his salary is reasonable for a tight end that caught five passes in three consecutive games before missing a pair of games due to injury. The weather forecast in Cleveland is not going to allow for ample passing opportunities, but those passes that do occur will be of low aDOT, which still supports a solid role for Hooper against the Texans.
| NAME | OPP. | SALARY |
| Saints | SF | $3,000 |
| Rams | SEA | $2,200 |
Team Defenses: There are no slam dunks at the team defense position this week, so the recommendation is to roster the Saints against Nick Mullens and the battered 49ers or to punt altogether with an excellent Rams defense in a poor matchup. In New Orleans, the Saints are coming off their best defensive performance of the season where they held Tom Brady and the Buccaneers to a measly field goal on Sunday Night Football. Over their previous two games, the Saints have sacked the quarterback eight times and collected another four turnovers, neither of which bodes well for Nick Mullens whose lifetime 18:14 touchdown-to interception ratio could render the Saints defense a top play for the third straight week. Alternatively, rolling with Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey, and an overall solid defense for only $2.2K is a risk worth taking against the Seahawks' top-end defense. We saw some chinks in the Seattle armor last week when they traveled to Buffalo, scoring only 20 points through 3 quarters of football. Look for the Rams to study that game film and take advantage of what a lesser Bills defense was able to do against Seattle.
TOURNAMENTS
| NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % |
| Justin Herbert | @MIA | $6,600 | 6% |
| Tom Brady | @CAR | $6,300 | 4% |
| Carson Wentz | @NYG | $5,900 | 6% |
| Tua Tagovailoa | LAC | $5,600 | 3% |
| Derek Carr | DEN | $5,400 | 4% |
| Daniel Jones | PHL | $5,200 | 2% |
| DEEP SLEEPER: | |||
| Teddy Bridgewater | TB | $6,100 | 1% |
| FADE: | |||
| Jared Goff | SEA | $6,500 | 10% |
Quarterbacks: There are plenty of ways to distribute your action with all of the value presenting itself this weekend in DFS. At the high-end, Justin "AirBear" (h/t to Devin Knotts) Herbert stands out as a premier upside play against the Dolphins in a game that has sneaky shootout potential. In Carolina, Tom Brady should not be discounted after laying an egg on Sunday Night Football against the Saints. We have seen "Angry Tom" in the past and he typically delivers on expectations in those situations; with another week of Antonio Brown, look for Brady to return to stardom against Carolina at low crowd exposure. At the Meadowlands, both quarterbacks are firmly in play due to their respective pricing and matchups. Carson Wentz is sub-$6K and will benefit from the return of Dallas Goedert, Miles Sanders, and Jalen Reagor, while Daniel Jones is a value-based selection that can be easily stacked with Sterling Shepard for only 20% of your overall salary distribution. Elsewhere, do not sleep on Tua Tagovailoa against the Chargers--he, and his receivers, are too cheaply priced, which allows for spending up at other positions.
- Sleeper: The entire Carolina Panthers team was mispriced on DraftKings this week. While 60+% of people will be rostering Mike Davis and his $4K salary, the vast majority of people will ignore the remainder of the Panthers offense despite cheap pricing and significant upside. Teddy Bridgewater is going to completely overlooked despite both D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson being bona fide value plays at their respective prices. This may be one of the best opportunities of the season to capitalize on group-think by leveraging the dramatic crowd exposure to Mike Davis and rolling with passing game stacks involving Teddy Bridgewater. As proof of this value, this author will be ~ 10-fold over the field in tournament exposure for Bridgewater.
- Fade: It's a stellar matchup for Jared Goff, but his popularity in tournaments is not justified by his numbers...mainly his salary and percent-rostered. The masses will be chasing the magic that is Seattle's defense, but if Goff goes off in more than 8-10% of tournaments at lineup lock, it will have been too much. There are 11 different quarterbacks with better odds to achieve 4x value on their salary, but Goff is projected to be the 3rd most popular quarterback in DFS contests on Sunday. Fade the masses and get more exposure to other throwers referenced above.
