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For the uninitiated, playing daily games on DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. Footballguys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “Tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of players at each position on DraftKings and make value-based recommendations for both your cash games and tournaments.

Below you will find a list of recommended players for both formats. GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.

TIPS AND PICKS

Let's take a deeper look into some of the players who I will be targeting for my cash game and tournament rosters this weekend. A short summary follows each respective table to fill in the gaps that led to the respective recommendations; that text represents only an overview of the methodology and rationale that goes into each recommendation. If you have questions about any of the recommendations or the process that led to them, please email me at john.lee@footballguys.com.

Sunday AM update: The Kansas City-Denver game being played at Mile High Stadium is forecasted to have terrible playing conditions today. With "feels like" temperatures of 5-degrees and snow showers both before and during the game, it is difficult to recommend the Chiefs' passing game. There are more recent references that confirm the relationship to cold weather and NFL offenses, but suffice it to say that there is a clear drop in both passing attempts and output when temperatures drop to these levels. Expect this one to be a low-scoring, run-heavy contest that is over quickly. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is still in play, but you should probably remove names like Patrick Mahomes II, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce from your DFS lineups because both their floor and ceiling numbers will be negatively affected by these conditions.

CASH GAMES

Quarterbacks: Before digging into players at each position, you should be aware that value is difficult to find this week. DraftKings' pricing algorithm is in mid-season form and most backup players' salaries have been raised to the extent that there are no "free squares" in Week #7. With that in mind, you are going to have to make some difficult decisions to build your cash game lineups this week. Starting at quarterback, Kyler Murray is the safest player at his position for cash formats because of what he does with his legs; entering this weekend, only 12 players in the entire league have more rushing yards (61.7) than Kyler Murray and only Dalvin Cook has more rushing touchdowns (7 versus 6). The matchup against the Seahawks is pristine, as they have allowed 300+ passing yards in all-but-one game this season. With a Vegas total of 56 points, this game should go back-and-forth and allow plenty of opportunity for Murray to deliver 20+ points for your cash game roster, a threshold he has surpassed every game thus far. As a salary-saving option, Joe Burrow is intriguing against the Browns, who lost Greedy Williams (neck) to injured reserve after Week #5. For his part, Burrow has been stellar in his rookie season, delivering 300+ yards in 4 of his 6 starts. At his $5.5K price point, Burrow needs ~ 250 passing yards and a pair of scores to justify his spot in your lineup; our David Dodds has him projected at ~ 290 yards and 1.8 touchdowns, which provides some comfort in saving salary at the position.

Running Backs: Keeping the theme of limited value, there is not much at the running back position this week either. Priced around $7K, both Aaron Jones and Kareem Hunt appear to be the optimal plays at the position due to their recent usage and implied Vegas team totals. Jones continues to split time with Jamaal Williams, but had 18+ touches in every game leading up to last week's blowout loss to the Buccaneers, where the offense was pulled early in the fourth quarter. Things are looking up for his fantasy prospects against the Texans' 25th-ranked DVOA rush defense that allowed Derrick Henry to break last week's slate with 260+ all-purpose yards. The Texans have demonstrated an ability to keep pace with opposing offenses, which should keep Jones' relevant throughout this contest. As for Hunt, he saw 23 touches in his first game without Nick Chubb (MCL), but took a step back last week in a blowout loss to the Steelers where the Browns got away from the running game early due to a pick-six from Baker Mayfield. This week, however, should be different against the Bengals, who were gashed by Chubb and Hunt for 210 yards and 3 rushing touchdowns back in Week #2. To potentially save some salary, Kenyan Drake's salary dropped by $200 despite a 31.4-fantasy point explosion against Dallas on Monday Night Football. Drake faces off at home against Seattle, who allowed nearly 200 rushing yards to the Vikings in their last contest. His scoring floor is bolstered by the likelihood of this game becoming a shootout, which should result in plenty of opportunity to reach 3x value on his modest $4.8K salary.

EDIT: Gio Bernard becomes the de facto "free square" on Friday night when Joe Mixon was surprisingly announced as "out" with a foot injury. The matchup against the Browns' 23rd-ranked DVOA rush defense is unimposing, as they are fresh off allowing James Conner to collect his first 100-yard game of the season. As a stellar receiver out of the backfield, Gio could easily accumulate 20+ touches at only $4.5K; he is the salary relief we were seeking going into Friday and the injury Gods delivered. As is the case with Bingo, start with Gio and build around him.

Wide Receivers: If the opportunity cost is not prohibitive, Davante Adams is the class of the wide receiver position for cash games this weekend. Adam collected 10 targets last week after missing a pair of games with a hamstring injury and the risk of re-injury is lessened with that complete game under his belt. Houston's defense has yet to slow down a legitimate WR1 this season and this game should go back-and-forth throughout to help pad Adams' statline. Around the $6K mark, both Keenan Allen and Terry McLaurin are in play for cash and GPP formats. Allen is coming off a slow 2-target game against the Saints, but had accumulated 40 targets in the 3 games prior--he has more than doubled the targets of any other Chargers' wide receiver. McLaurin makes a repeat appearance in this space after delivering a lukewarm 7/74/0 stat line against the Cowboys last weekend. Because he did not score, McLaurin's price jumped only nominally by $100 to $5.8K. With positive touchdown regression pending and 41 targets across the previous month, this will likely be the last week we will see McLaurin below $6K for the remainder of 2020. To save salary, both Marvin Jones and TreQuan Smith appear to be priced fairly based on their expected points-per-dollar output. Jones is far from appealing with only 24 targets on the season, but he cannot be ignored against this Falcons defense that has allowed 11 different receivers to hit cash game value on his $4.4K salary through 6 games this season. As for Trequan Smith, he is the next man up after both Emmanuel Sanders (COVID-IR) and Michael Thomas (hamstring) were both announced as out on Friday. He will match up against the Panthers' stingy pass defense, but the matchup is irrelevant given his implied role as the WR1 and the Saints' lofty Vegas total (29.3 points).

Tight Ends: There is never a need to justify Travis Kelce in DFS circles, so let's keep this short: The position is thin again this week, but Kelce is basically a WR1 at the tight end position and can be had at a $1K discount from what he would cost you as a wide receiver. To be fair, Denver has been a stalwart defender of tight ends this season, but check out Kelce's game logs against the Broncos across his career and you will see why he is squarely in consideration across all DFS formats. If you need to save some salary, Hunter Henry can be had at nearly $2K of a discount from Kelce and gets a plus matchup against the Jaguars, who have allowed five touchdowns to tight ends across their previous five games. If you need a cheaper option than Henry, David Nkoju should see increased action due to the late scratch of Austin Hooper (appendectomy); he is fairly priced at $3.0K and should be good for 3-5 catches for ~ 40 yards and several redzone looks.

Team Defenses: A week after being benched against the Steelers, Baker Mayfield will take the field in Cincinnati to take on the one-win Bengals. Mayfield has thrown four interceptions across the previous two games, which bodes well for the Bengals' chances at collecting the seven points they would need to justify their place in your cash game lineups. The preferred play, however, is rolling with the Washington Football Team against Andy Dalton and the Cowboys at home. After seeing Dalton struggle against the Cardinals on Monday night, it's tough to see him improving against the Redskins on a short week of preparation. Chase Young and Montez Sweat are going to give Dalton fits and are easily the best points-per-dollar cash game play at the team defense position.

TOURNAMENTS

Quarterbacks: Any time you can get Patrick Mahomes II on less than 5% of all rosters, he should find himself in more of your rosters than the field. Mahomes is matchup-proof every week and no quarterback has any higher upside--get at least 8-10% exposure. Both Deshaun Watson and Matt Ryan deserve consideration in their respective games that Las Vegas oddsmakers have projected as the top-scoring games on the main slate. Watson has posted back-to-back 30+ DK point games and Matt Ryan is coming off a 35-DK point performance against the Vikings on the road last week. Contrarian options at the position include Justin Herbert, Cam Newton, and Teddy Bridgewater. Herbert gets a plus matchup at home against the Jags, who have allowed half of opposing quarterbacks to surpass 300-yards through the air this season. Due to recency bias, Newton will go largely ignored; his matchup against the Niners is excellent, as no team in the league has allowed more rushing yards to quarterbacks than San Francisco and Cam's upside certainly meshes well with that reality. In New Orleans, Teddy Bridgewater makes the list because both of his primary receivers (D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson) are on too few rosters, which makes him relevant in a contest with a 51-point Vegas total.

• Sleeper: Fresh off a 280-yard performance against the Giants in his first start on the Football Team, Kyle Allen is a contrarian GPP play against the Cowboys' dreadful defense. Allen can easily (and justifiably) be paired with either Terry McLaurin and/or Logan Thomas for cheap upside and even "run back" with Ezekiel Elliott. Given the implied Vegas gamescript, both teams should keep their opponents' offense in play for the full game.
• Fade: At $8.0K and approaching double-digit percent-rostered numbers, it is tough to justify Russell Wilson as a GPP play this week. We have seen Russ deliver 4x value (and then some) on this salary early this season, but the likelihood that he continues to post 30+ DK point games is less than the general public might otherwise believe. Certainly get a few shares, but stay under the field on Sunday.