For the uninitiated, playing daily games on DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. Footballguys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “Tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of players at each position on DraftKings and make value-based recommendations for both your cash games and tournaments.
Below you will find a list of recommended players for both formats. GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.
TIPS AND PICKS
Let's take a deeper look into some of the players who I will be targeting for my cash game and tournament rosters this weekend. A short summary follows each respective table to fill in the gaps that led to the respective recommendations; that text represents only an overview of the methodology and rationale that goes into each recommendation. If you have questions about any of the recommendations or the process that led to them, please email me at john.lee@footballguys.com.
CASH GAMES
| NAME | OPP. | SALARY |
| Kyler Murray | DET | $6,800 |
| Cam Newton | LV | $6,700 |
Quarterbacks: On most weeks in this column, you will be advised to save salary in cash games at the quarterback position...but not this week. With Kyler Murray's coming-of-age and Cam Newton's resurgence, this is a week to pay up at the position to ensure a solid scoring floor. Murray is averaging ~ 30 DK points per game in Kliff Kingsbury's spread offense and Newton quelled his naysayers with an incredible ~ 400-yard performance last Sunday night against Seattle. Both are strong options this week facing inferior defenses--Murray gets the Lions' 28th-ranked DVOA pass defense that has allowed nearly 500 passing yards and 5 touchdowns to Aaron Rodgers and Mitchell Trubisky through their first pair of games. Meanwhile, Newton faces off against the Raiders' 31st-ranked DVOA pass defense that has yielded a shade under 300 yards per game to Drew Brees and Teddy Bridgewater to this point in the season. Both quarterbacks bring legitimate rushing prowess to your lineups to bolster your scoring floors; Newton has 123 rushing yards and 4 scores, while Murray has accumulated 168 yards and 3 touchdowns on his legs.
| NAME | OPP. | SALARY |
| Derrick Henry | @MIN | $7,800 |
| Jonathan Taylor | NYJ | $7,000 |
| Miles Sanders | CIN | $6,400 |
| Jeff Wilson | NYG | $4,000 |
Running Backs: After watching the Bengals allow 150+ rushing yards to the Chargers and Browns in back-to-back weeks, Miles Sanders should be your first running back rostered at $6.1K this weekend. Sanders' price jumped nominally by $100 week-over-week despite 23 touches for 130+ all-purpose yards and a score in his 2020 debut against the Rams last Sunday. Bolstering his odds is the fact that Eagles' offensive line looks to be at 100% for the first time all season. You should consider going back to the well with Derrick Henry this week in spite of his disappointing performance against the Jaguars in Week #2. As discussed on Thursday's episode of the PowerGrid, Derrick Henry has averaged a touchdown scored every 18.4 touches over the past two years, yet has not found paydirt in 59 opportunities in 2020. Expect positive scoring regression this week against the Vikings, who made Aaron Jones a DFS hero just last week. In Indy, feel free to roll with Jonathan Taylor against the hapless Jets as a hefty 11.5-point home favorite. Frank Reich surprised some by giving Taylor 28 touches last Sunday after starting the season with a 50/50 split between Taylor and stablemate, Nyheim Hines. The job now clearly belongs to Taylor and the implied gamescript weighs heavily in his favor. Lastly, monitor beat reports into Sunday morning, but early rumors from the Bay area suggest that Jeff Wilson could get the majority of looks out of the Niner backfield on Sunday; if those rumors are substantiated, Wilson becomes an attractive punt option for cash games at only $4.0K against the Giants, who allowed 100+ all-purpose yards to both David Montgomery and Benny Snell in their first two games.
| NAME | OPP. | SALARY |
| DeAndre Hopkins | DET | $7,900 |
| Amari Cooper | @SEA | $6,500 |
| Tyler Lockett | DAL | $6,400 |
| NKeal Harry | LV | $4,200 |
| K.J. Hamler | TB | $3,000 |
Wide Receivers: After slotting Miles Sanders into your cash game rosters, the next step is to click on DeAndre Hopkins' name at the wide receiver position. The Cardinals are running the third-fastest offense to this point in the season (neutral script, FootballOutsiders) and are averaging nearly 75 offensive plays per game. Of the Arizona receivers, Hopkins is garnering a 35.7% target share of this ample offense, second in the NFL and trailing only Jamison Crowder (39.4%). With the highest implied team total on the Vegas boards, lock in the biggest piece of Arizona's offense via Nuk and his reasonable $7.9K salary. From there, both of the WR1's in the Dallas-Seattle game are modestly priced for their relative roles and scoring floors in a potential shootout; Amari Cooper has 23 targets, while Tyler Lockett has 14 across their first two games and neither defense has demonstrated an ability to shut down an opponent's passing game to date. To save salary, NKeal Harry is starting to display the upside the Patriots anticipated when they drafted him in the first round of last year's NFL draft; Harry's 29% market share of the team's passes trails only 6 NFL receivers; add in a tasty matchup against the Raiders' 26th-ranked DVOA pass defense and Harry is an intriguing salary-saving option for cash games. In Denver, Courtland Sutton (knee) is out for the season, which elevates Jerry Jeudy to the WR1 role and opens up an opportunity for second-round pick, K.J. Hamler to run out of the slot against Tampa Bay on Sunday. Hamler, alongside Noah Fant, should be Jeff Driske's primary targets in a play-from-behind gamescript; at the site-minimum price point, Hamler needs a pedestrian 5/40/0 stat line to justify his spot in your cash game lineups.
| NAME | OPP. | SALARY |
| Zach Ertz | CIN | $5,100 |
| Logan Thomas | @CLE | $3,700 |
Tight Ends: Much like the quarterback position, you are typically advised to save salary wherever possible when rostering tight ends in cash games. In short, the volatility of tight end usage from week to week merits a cautious approach, as we saw with Chris Herndon last week when Adam Gase decided to use him primarily as a blocker after he saw seven targets in Week #1. DraftKings, however, threw us a monkey wrench this weekend and assigned appropriate salaries for most of the position, which forces our hand when constructing cash game lineups. Of the available tight ends, both Zach Ertz and Logan Thomas are intriguing options primarily because of their respective roles within their offenses. Ertz should get plenty of looks with the Eagles expected to run a "12-formation" offense for most of the day, now that Jalen Reagor has been announced as "out" with a thumb injury. Ertz is basically a low-end WR1 for the Philly offense and is priced cheaper than that level of receiver. As for Thomas, he faces a Browns team that has been lit up by his position in their first two games--Cleveland has allowed 18 catches for 149 yards and 3 touchdowns to tight ends thus far. When considering Thomas' reasonable salary and matchup, he should be expected to be the most popular tight on the board this Sunday.
| NAME | OPP. | SALARY |
| Eagles | CIN | $2,800 |
| Jets | @IND | $2,000 |
Team Defenses: If you have the excess salary, you might consider the Buccaneers ($3.7K) against the Jeff Driskell-led Broncos. That said, saving salary is always recommended at the team defense roster spot, so the Eagles top the list of cash game options against the Bengals. Cincinnati could not get much going until "garbage time" against the Browns last Thursday and did almost nothing against the Chargers in their season-opener. The Eagles rate out as the 11th-overall DVOA defense and are affordably priced at only $2.8K. As a complete punt option, the Jets show up as the site-minimum price again this week. Despite allowing nearly 60 "football points" across their first two games, the Jets have gotten after the quarterback reasonably well (6 sacks) and collected an average of 5.5 points per game over that span. If salary is limiting, this is the recommended place to save salary.
TOURNAMENTS
| NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % |
| Russell Wilson | DAL | $7,300 | 15% |
| Dak Prescott | @SEA | $7,200 | 11% |
| Matt Ryan | CHI | $6,600 | 5% |
| Matthew Stafford | @ARZ | $6,300 | 4% |
| Philip Rivers | NYJ | $6,000 | 1% |
| Carson Wentz | CIN | $5,800 | 4% |
| DEEP SLEEPER: | |||
| Justin Herbert | CAR | $5,900 | 1% |
| FADE: | |||
| Ryan Tannehill | @MIN | $5,900 | 2% |
Quarterbacks: They are going to be on a lot of rosters, but it's difficult to come up with reasons to avoid considering Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott in this week's marquee matchup in Seattle. The Vegas total has continually crept upwards and currently resides at 57 points, a strong argument that oddsmakers believe that the defenses will have little impact in this contest. Get close to their projected roster numbers in your portfolio, but do not go overweight--there are other quarterbacks will similar upside that will be on fewer overall lineups. Of those, the "Matts" are both attractive. Matt Ryan and Matthew Stafford have posted some ridiculously consistent 300-yard games since the beginning of 2019--collectively, they have 300+ yards passing and/or 2+ passing touchdowns in 24 of their previous 28 games during that span. This week, stacking with Matt Ryan becomes an easier proposition than normal, as Julio Jones is on the doubtful side of questionable to suit up against the Bears. In Arizona, Matthew Stafford welcomes the return of Kenny Golladay in the Lions' likely shootout with the fast-paced Cardinals, another game with a 55+ point Vegas total. Two other contrarian options: Philip Rivers and Carson Wentz are leverage plays against the ~ 30-40% of rosters that will roll out either Jonathan Taylor or Miles Sanders, respectively. If those teams put up points (and both are projected for > 26 points) and their running backs falter, Rivers and/or Wentz would deliver at sub-5% numbers.
- Sleeper: A week after posting a 300-yard game in his NFL debut, Justin Herbert is surprisingly going unnoticed in DFS circles this weekend. Herbert looked solid, if not great, after getting a surprise start when Tyrod Taylor was rushed to a hospital for a punctured lung due to a pre-game pain injection last weekend. Herbert (and the Chargers) defense took the defending Super Bowl champs to overtime, maintaining drives and even scampering for a touchdown along the way. This week, he takes on the league's worst DVOA defense, Carolina, that has allowed a total of eight touchdowns through two games. He's an excellent high-upside sleeper that can easily be paired with several cheap receivers (Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Hunter Henry) complemented by chalky options in the Dallas-Seattle and Detroit-Arizona games for differentiation from the masses.
- Fade: It is tough to recommend fading a player that is only on 2% of rosters, but I expect that number to roughly double by Sunday and it will have been too high for Ryan Tannehill in a run-heavy slog in Minnesota. This is a game featuring bellcow running backs coached by teams with a run-first mentality. Avoid Tannehill, despite his surprise Week #2 performance against Jacksonville, and get your exposure to Derrick Henry (and Dalvin Cook) in this matchup instead.
