The trend at running back remains clear - fewer sure thing workhorses and more backs with questions about timeshares, injury histories, and consistency. That combines this year with a more level group at wide receiver through the top 30-40 to create even more emphasis on hitting on your early running back picks. The mid-rounds are fraught with danger, but there’s lots of intrigue once we get to the bench picks. As usual, running back scarcity means you’ll feel less comfortable taking a running back than you will taking a peer from another position. How are the backs distributed and which one makes us feel the least apprehension when selecting them?
Team Cornerstones
Christian McCaffrey, CAR
Saquon Barkley, NYG
Ezekiel Elliott, DAL
Alvin Kamara, NO
Derrick Henry, TEN
Dalvin Cook, MIN
These backs are all the centerpieces in offenses that use them in almost ideal ways against the background of at least competent offensive play. You can expect these backs to go off of the board in the first 6-8 picks of every draft. In fact, you can expect McCaffrey and Barkley to go 1-2 with a high probability that Elliott and Kamara will be 3 and 4 in some. McCaffrey #1 needs no explanation, nor does Barkley #2, don’t let his injury last year obscure his weekly and season-long ceiling - although Daniel Jones and the new offense creates some volatility for him, especially in the passing game. Elliott vs. Kamara is a legitimate debate, with Kamara having latent upside after an injury-marred season and Elliott could get a bump this year from an offense that should be explosive in all facets of play. Henry has some skeptics out there and is the most likely of this tier to fall a bit, but he was the clear #2 back after Tannehill took over. Cook’s holdout drama never materialized, but his injury history still puts him at the bottom of this tier.
Value: Henry
Priced Correctly: McCaffrey, Barkley, Elliott, Kamara, Cook
The Next Big Thing?
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC
Joe Mixon, CIN
Miles Sanders, PHI
Josh Jacobs, LV
Kenyan Drake, ARI
This is the tier you’re looking at in the second half of the first round and maybe the first few picks of the second. Edwards-Helaire should lead it in most drafts. He’ll have a chance to do even more than Kareem Hunt did as a rookie when Hunt was a top-five fantasy running back in an Alex Smith offense. He’s worth the plunge once the top six backs are gone and I won’t talk you out of taking him over Cook. Mixon is next with the hope that a new quarterback and left tackle will help the offense support strong production from him outside of December when the season is already lost. There was an argument for Sanders ahead of Mixon and even Edwards-Helaire after he finished the year with a top-five flurry of numbers following a Jordan Howard injury, but his camp injury adds enough risk to break ties against him, although upside drafters might still be swayed by his ceiling and place on the early ascendant section of his career arc. Jacobs is next with the promise of more passing game work and an excellent rookie season, but beware the Cadillac Williams risk of Gruden running him into the ground. If Jacobs has another season-ending injury this year, it will become a bigger part of his fantasy profile in light of him never being a heavy workload back at Alabama. Drake is last because, like Jacobs, he hasn’t demonstrated the ability to hold up under a heavy workload for a whole season because, like Jacobs, he was a part-time back at Alabama, and then two different head coaches at Miami never seemed to commit to him for long before they dealt him to Arizona, who fed him to the tune of league-winning performances in Weeks 15 and 16 last year.
Priced Correctly: Edwards-Helaire, Mixon, Sanders, Drake
Overpriced: Jacobs
Solid RB1 with Limitations
Nick Chubb, CLE
Austin Ekeler, LAC
James Conner, PIT
Chris Carson, SEA
This tier spans the second and third rounds of drafts. All of these backs will get plenty of work, but there are questions about whether they can reach or sustain previous heights. Chubb has to deal with a healthy Kareem Hunt, Ekeler has a new quarterback who won’t feed the running backs in the passing game the way that Philip Rivers did, and Conner and Carson have worrisome injury histories. Chubb is the safest and really should be in his own tier above this group in leagues that aren’t full PPR or give .25 points or more per carry. Ekeler is usually a second-round pick, which gives little room for profit. Conner and Carson will only cost third-round picks and Carson could fall to the fourth. They are relatively inexpensive for backs that are guaranteed to be lead runners with a track record of success while still being on the upslope of their careers.
Values: Conner, Carson
Priced Correctly: Chubb, Ekeler
RB1 Talents with Workload Questions
Aaron Jones, GB
Jonathan Taylor, IND
Melvin Gordon, DEN
Gordon was an RB1 before coming to Denver, Jones was an RB1 last year, and Taylor has the look of an RB1 already. Will they get the opportunity to hit their fantasy ceilings? Phillip Lindsay isn’t going away, AJ Dillon could take away Jones goal-line carries, which created a lot of his value last year, and Taylor has to leapfrog Marlon Mack. Jones is the most expensive and Taylor is the cheapest, but expect Taylor to move up the closer we get to the season.
Value: Taylor (if in fourth)
Overpriced: Gordon (if in third), Jones (if in second)
Ascendant RB2 Talents
Kareem Hunt, CLE
Cam Akers, LAR
Devin Singletary, BUF
Raheem Mostert, SF
Ronald Jones II, TB
This group all has arrows pointing up and none of them are too expensive. Hunt is the most overwhelming talent and while he has the best competition for touches by far, it’s difficult to pass on him if you haven’t taken your RB2 by the sixth round. Akers has a chance to seize control of the Rams backfield, but how productive will that role be? Singletary looked like a back ready for take off last year, but Zack Moss will get valuable volume including goal-line carries. Mostert proved he was the best back in San Francisco and the team threw him a bone contractually, but Jerick McKinnon appears to be back to further complicate this situation. He's one of the most puzzling backs to value in drafts because Mostert is clearly the best runner in a good situation, but the 49ers also seem to be wedded to a committee. We might look back and wonder why we overlooked Jones as the cheapest back who is in line to lead his backfield in touches.
Values: Hunt, Akers, Jones
Priced Correctly: Singletary, Mostert
Guaranteed Volume Plays
LeVeon Bell, NYJ
David Johnson, HOU
David Montgomery, CHI
Leonard Fournette, JAX
Todd Gurley, ATL
These backs are the cheapest sure bets to lead their backfield in touches, but when you look at their issues, you understand why. Bell plays behind a Jets offensive line that could be the worst in the league for a head coach that seems to suffocate the fantasy value of his best players. Johnson went AWOL before our very eyes last year before Bill O’Brien showed he was the only NFL decision-maker to still view Johnson as an asset despite an eight-digit price tag. Montgomery was running in wet cement last year and did little while dominating the touches in the Bears backfield. Fournette is a lame-duck back on a losing team who will be joined by a passing-down specialist for at least some part of the year. Gurley’s knee is a weekly question mark. They are all adequate to start out your season as your RB2 and then hope they hold it down before your later upside picks or waiver wire adds give you a better option - or maybe they overcome the issues that moved them down on draft boards! (don’t hold your breath).
Priced Correctly: Johnson, Montgomery
Overpriced: Fournette, Gurley, Bell
Rookies Vying For Playing Time
DAndre Swift, DET
J.K. Dobbins, BAL
Antonio Gibson, WAS
This trio is exciting but they might not get enough work early in the season to be startable without big plays. Swift has upside via Kerryon Johnson’s braced knee and history of missing games, Dobbins can make 8-12 touches fantasy relevant in the Ravens offense, and Gibson could be involved as a receiver and runner in a backfield looking for answers. None are obviously overpriced, but all carry the added cost of players who inspire visions of greatness as rookies.
Priced Correctly: Swift, Dobbins, Gibson
Trying Hold Off The Rookies
Mark Ingram, BAL
Kerryon Johnson, DET
Marlon Mack, IND
Darrell Henderson, LAR
Adrian Peterson, WAS
This tier is probably full of losing bets. Ingram is established and made the most of a smallish workload for a lead back last year, but the margins get a lot smaller if Dobbins cuts into his goal-line work at all. Johnson is still wearing a knee brace which feels ominous. Mack has improved every year of his career but just doesn’t have the good to hold off Taylor. Henderson is a lot cheaper than last year, but will the Rams give him more plays suited his strengths? Peterson is the Energizer Bunny, but it’s difficult to see his low weekly ceiling helping your team.
Priced Correctly: KJohnson, Mack, Henderson
Overpriced: Ingram, Peterson
Receiving Backs
Duke Johnson Jr, HOU
Nyheim Hines, IND
Tarik Cohen, CHI
James White, NE
Boston Scott, PHI
Jerick McKinnon, SF
LeSean McCoy, TB
Chris Thompson, JAX
Dare Ogunbowale, TB
This tier can cheap RB2/Flex production and perhaps more. Johnson is my favorite target because he can contribute without a David Johnson injury/flameout but obviously has an every-week RB2 ceiling if the elder Johnson collapses. My fascination with Hines is undying and I’m believing Philip Rivers can get a lot more out of him. Cohen lacked big plays and scores last year, but if he regains form, he’ll help fantasy teams. White lost Tom Brady, but the Patriots offense isn’t exactly stacked with options, so he could still be viable, especially with Cam Newton, who set up Christian McCaffrey’s first 100 catch season. Scott was fantasy relevant last year while Miles Sanders was tearing it up. He can be again this year and is a PPR must draft late. McKinnon is drawing rave reviews in 49ers camp and could be a fantasy factor this year if he stays on the field in a three-way committee. McCoy and Ogunbowale will battle to be Brady’s receiving back. Thompson is almost always fantasy relevant as long as he’s healthy, which usually isn’t for long.
Values: Johnson, Hines, Scott, McKinnon
Priced Correctly: Cohen, White, Thompson, McCoy, Ogunbowale
50% or less timeshare backs
Phillip Lindsay, DEN
Zack Moss, BUF
Jordan Howard, MIA
Matt Breida, MIA
Tevin Coleman, SF
Rex Burkhead, NE
There’s no scenario where any of these backs get a clear majority of the work without injury to backfieldmates, but that doesn’t mean that there isn’t value here. Lindsay could have close to a 50/50 split with Melvin Gordon and might be better in the passing game with his wrist feeling better. Coleman could regain goal-line carries. Moss will get the goal line carries that Frank Gore couldn’t convert last year. There’s a buzz that he could be the more valuable Bills back if Singletary’s fumble problems surface, or even some weeks by design depending on the weakness of the opponent. Howard will be the early-down back for the Dolphins and Breida could get extra value in the passing game, but the Dolphins offensive line isn’t going to add value and his injury history is worrisome. Burkhead is stubbornly going to hold onto some share of the Patriots backfield, he’s always productive on a per touch basis and he might even play some slot receiver. Injury luck could create a hit or two in this tier, and there’s bye/injury/emergency value at worst.
Value: Lindsay, Moss, Burkhead
Overpriced: Breida, Howard, Coleman
Handcuffs
Chase Edmonds, ARI
Latavius Murray, NO
Alexander Mattison, MIN
Tony Pollard, DAL
Ryquell Armstead, JAX
Carlos Hyde, SEA
Benny Snell, PIT
Giovani Bernard, CIN
Darrynton Evans, TEN
There’s enough ground to mine in handcuff value analysis to take up an entire article but I’ll try to hit the high points here. Value backup running backs by looking at these four factors
- Talent/Skill of Player
- Quality of Situation
- Clarity of Role
- Likelihood of Starter to Miss Time/Demotion
Edmonds might be more than a backup, but even if we just look at him as a handcuff, Kenyan Drake is far from proven as a lead back, the situation is solid, and Edmonds looked great last year, entering this year as the clear #2. Murray checks the talent/situation boxes. Ty Montgomery might reduce the role, but that’s ok since Murray was a league winner when Kamara was out last year. Kamara doesn’t seem to particularly injury-prone despite missing time last year. Mattison is second because of the situation and the likelihood that Cook misses time. What we saw of his talent/skill last year was good and he’s probably ahead of Mike Boone. Washington is good and in a great situation, but it’s not totally clear that he’s the unquestioned #2, while Edwards-Helaire durability is an unknown. Pollard might be the best player in this tier, he’s a clear #2, and Dallas is a great offense, but Ezekiel Elliott never misses time due to injury. Armstead could face a challenge from Devine Ozigbo and the situation is terrible, but early returns on his talent are good and he’s the most likely back in this tier to start without an injury to the starter. Hyde is a middling talent, but he’s the clear early-down #2, Seattle is good at running the ball, and Chris Carson always misses time. Many are incorrectly identifying Anthony McFarland as the handcuff to the oft-injured James Conner, but Benny Snell reshaped his body in the offseason and the Steelers love him. Their backfield is very productive as long as Ben Roethlisberger is at quarterback and he’s free in drafts. Joe Mixon is no stranger to the injury report, so the well-established talent of Bernard is underrated, while Evans is an unknown and Derrick Henry seems durable. If Henry misses significant time, I’d expect the Titans to sign a veteran to take between the tackles carries.
Values: Edmonds, Bernard, Armstead, Snell
Priced Correctly: Murray, Mattison, Pollard, Evans, Hyde
Upside End of Bench Stash
Bryce Love, WAS
Damien Harris, NE
Justin Jackson, LAC
A.J. Dillon, GB
These talents are intriguing and we haven’t seen the best of them yet. Love and Harris will get as much opportunity as they earn, Jackson is already shown out on the field, but need to stay healthy, and Dillon is turning heads in camp and could force his way into a committee with Aaron Jones. Love is just getting onto the fantasy radar, so he might be the cheapest, but all are likely 12th round or later picks.
Deep League Rookie Bench Stash/Waiver Wire Watch
Joshua Kelley, LAC
Anthony McFarland, PIT
Eno Benjamin, ARI
KeShawn Vaughn, TB
Lynn Bowden, LV
Lamical Perine, NYJ
None of these rookies have clear paths to opportunity, but with a couple of injuries in front of them, they could matter for fantasy. All should be added or at least monitored closely if one of the backs ahead of them go down.
Who’s the Backup?
Wayne Gallman/Dion Lewis, NYG
Brian Hill/Qadree Ollison/Ito Smith, ATL
Reggie Bonnafon/Mike Davis, CAR
Chances are if the starter goes down in these situations, there won’t be a fantasy-relevant back, but we should keep tabs of the camp battles in case a clear handcuff emerges, especially in Atlanta.
Decent Talents In Search of Opportunity
Devine Ozigbo, JAX
Corey Clement, PHI
Jamaal Williams, GB
Jordan Wilkins, IND
Kerrith Whyte, PIT
Jaylen Samuels, PIT
Gus Edwards, BAL
Justice Hill, BAL
Darrel Williams, KC
DeAndre Washington, KC
Darwin Thompson, KC
Mike Boone, MIN
Jalen Richard, LV
DeeJay Dallas, SEA
Travis Homer, SEA
Trayveon Williams, CIN
Bo Scarbrough, DET
Ty Montgomery, NO
Jeff Wilson, SF
These players are in no particular order. Just know that either they’ve shown they can play, or we don’t know for sure that they can’t play. Consider this your deep league waiver wire watch list and players who might matter by the end of the season because of running back injury attrition around the league. Wilkins, Edwards, Samuels, Boone, and Thompson are my favorites.
Midseason Pickups
Rashaad Penny, SEA
Sony Michel, NE
Don’t draft this duo, but if they are full speed by Week 8, they could have marginal fantasy value. Michel and Penny could avoid the PUP list to start the season, but I’ll believe it when I see it.
Role Players
Lamar Miller, NE
J.D. McKissic, WAS
Malcolm Brown, LAR
Peyton Barber, WAS
Royce Freeman, DEN
There are no difference makers here, but more unlikely names have ended up having fantasy value in seasons past and they are all likely to be on opening day rosters, or on the shortlist of street free agents to call when the season opens.
Schedule Notes
- Gurley’s opening schedule of Seattle, Dallas, Chicago, Green Bay, Carolina opens up a sell-high opportunity after that run of weak run defenses
- Baltimore opens with Cleveland-Kansas City-Houston-Washington-Cincinnati - Weeks 1, 4 and 5 could give Dobbins garbage time opportunity to show his stuff, and Weeks 14-16 against Cleveland, Jacksonville, and the Giants look like cakewalks
- Buffalo opens with the Jets, Miami, the Rams, and Las Vegas, which should give Zack Moss ample scoring opportunities
- The Broncos running game could get off to a slow start in the Weeks 2-3-4 stretch against Pittsburgh, Tampa, and the Jets
- Houston’s opening trio of games against Kansas City, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh could force them to abandon the run early
- Las Vegas gets Carolina to open, but then has New Orleans, New England, Buffalo, and Kansas City in a stretch that could be chock full of losing game scripts for Josh Jacobs
- LeVeon Bell isn’t going to like seeing the Bills, 49ers, Colts, and Broncos defenses to open the season running behind a new-look line
RB2BC or Zero-RB/Do The Opposite/Upside Down Favorites
Upside Mid Round Picks: Akers, Mostert, Swift, Jones, Dobbins, Gibson
Floor Mid Round Picks: Hunt, Lindsay, White, Moss, Cohen
Upside Late Round Picks: Henderson, Edmonds, Murray, Mattison, Pollard, Harris, Love
Floor Late Round Picks: Duke Johnson Jr, Hines, Scott, McKinnon
Point-per-Carry/non-PPR Scoring Bump
Derrick Henry
Nick Chubb
Chris Carson
Josh Jacobs
