We asked our staff to make a call on a quarterback. Who will surprise - either good or bad?
Jeff Pasquino
I’ll go ahead and start. Derek Carr is going to finish as a viable fantasy QB1 this season. First, here was my writeup from the Deep Sleepers at Quarterback article:
Derek Carr, OAK
Last year Carr posted a career-best 4,055 yards, his second 4,000-yard season in a row - and he did that without any receivers exceeding 50 receptions thanks in part to Antonio Brown’s release from the team prior to Week 1. The Raiders are looking to excite their new fan base in Las Vegas by adding significant skill-position talent, starting with first-round selection Henry Ruggs III, two third-rounders (Lynn Bowden and Bryan Edwards), along with veterans Nelson Agholor and tight end Jason Witten. Marcus Mariota signed a significant contract to push Carr and bolster the depth at quarterback, but Carr should hold on to the starting job after two solid seasons. He has been a solid fantasy QB2 for his entire career (QB14-QB20 for six seasons) and has strong upside due to the added surrounding talent and the new energy expected as the team starts the Las Vegas era.
Since then, Josh Jacobs has been quoted as saying that he wants to catch at least 60 balls this season. That’s huge, given that Jacobs had minimal receiving numbers (20-166). If he triples that, it is another 300+ yards for Carr, who somehow cobbled together over 4,000 yards last season with no wide receiver catching over 50 passes or getting over 651 yards. If Henry Ruggs can step up to be a true lead wide receiver, Carr could post 4,500+ yards passing and push for a Top 12 finish.
Matt Bitonti
Okay, this is a super-deep, super long shot call, but as a last-round, perhaps priority waiver pickup in dynasty or super-flex leagues I like P.J. Walker, Carolina, also known as the unofficial XFL MVP. Walker is currently the number two QB in Carolina, ahead of Will Grier for the job. Walker has the trust of the new head coach Matt Rhule, as he was a two-year starter for Rhule from their Temple days. As for starter Teddy Bridgewater, he's an interesting fantasy sleeper in his own right (this is not an anti-Bridgewater take). The Panthers' offense has the potential for fantasy points.
From the offensive line perspective (i.e. what they actually pay me to do), there's been plenty of change, and while that is often needed, that can translate into leaky pass protection in the short term. Carolina is a low-tier line until they build cohesion. And Bridgewater has not been as elusive as he once was before his Minnesota knee injury.
Granted, the NFL is a league where contracts dictate playing time and Teddy Bridgewater will obviously be favored to get all the reps. But if Bridgewater struggles, or goes down again, Rhule would have no problem running his system through PJ Walker. Like a penny stock that could pay off huge, Walker could be a Vince Young with less height (yes I'm old); a duel threat that wins fantasy leagues in the short term. The offense has weapons. He just needs the chance to run it.
Jeff Tefertiller
I will take a relatively easy one. Last year, Dak Prescott finished higher than Patrick Mahomes II (on a points/game basis) in many leagues. However, he is drafted several rounds after Mahomes this year but should not be.
Prescott has arguably the best weapons in the league. Off the breakout year in 2019, the Cowboys offense replaced a declining Randall Cobb with CeeDee Lamb and let Jason Witten walk to open up Blake Jarwin. Also, I expect Tony Pollard to see more snaps in year two. Gaining coach McCarthy is a plus, too.
At his price, Prescott is both the safest quarterback and the one with the best opportunity to significantly outplay his price.
Andy Hicks
When you take a quarterback late you look for starter upside. Fantasy football isn’t always about statistics or past performance. Future projection and instinct are key ingredients for success. Drew Lock isn’t considered a starting fantasy quarterback in 2020. Why? Denver has gone all-in on helping Lock succeed. Joe Flacco was cut, while Melvin Gordon was signed to partner Phillip Lindsay giving Denver an excellent one-two punch. To accompany rising star Courtland Sutton at wide receiver, Denver used their early picks on Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler. If there is one rookie wide receiver that shouldn’t be impacted by the obstacles of COVID it will be Jeudy. At tight end, Noah Fant was the 2019 first-rounder and had an excellent rookie season. Locks favorite target in college, Albert Okwuegbunam was even drafted. All the pieces have been assembled, but the key was how Lock looked in his limited action. He looked like a franchise quarterback last year and his leadership has been praised during this training camp. A lot of us want to see him prove it before jumping on board, sometimes getting in before the crowd has much more reward. He looks composed, has all the throws in the book, and while 2020 may be too soon, draft Lock as your late-round backup and it’s a no-lose situation.
Chad Parsons
I will make a pitch for Ben Roethlisberger. This year we get the coming-off-a-missed-season discount outside of the top-15 quarterbacks in consensus ADP. The weapons are strong with Eric Ebron added, James Conner back from injury, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson flashing as a rookie, and James Washington a perfect fit for Roethlisberger's play-extending style and deep-ball ability. Roethlisberger was QB3 and QB9 in the two seasons before the lost 2019 and has three career top-6 seasons. Roethlisberger is an easy profit player for his draft price and has strong top-10 finish odds.
Jason Wood
I'll give you a double call, the LSU connection is going to disappoint, in both cities. In Cincinnati, expectations are massive for Joe Burrow after the string of fantasy-relevant debuts for first-overall picks including Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray. But neither were fantasy stars and while I like Burrow's long-term upside, this is still a Bengals team that's grossly undermanned from a talent perspective, particularly if A.J. Green is hobbled again. Between the offensive line and the highly unproven play-calling chops for head coach Zac Taylor, I think expectations are too high and people are complacently assuming Burrow will give them viable QB1 production on his own or part of a committee. The other part of the LSU debacle will be Joe Brady in Carolina. Brady wasn't even the offensive coordinator last year at LSU, did you realize that? Yes, he's clearly a young, gifted offensive mind with a laser-sharp memory, but great coaches are hard to come by. It should surprise us if Brady is out of his element after basically one season as a senior-level coach in college. I also don't think Teddy Bridgewater has the skill set to execute Brady's scheme.
Jeff Haseley
My pick is Gardner Minshew. Being a dual-threat quarterback has its fantasy advantages and Minshew fits the bill. He was fifth in quarterback rushing yards (344) last season trailing only Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, Josh Allen, and Deshaun Watson. He also was impressive throwing the football. He threw for two or more touchdowns in seven of the 14 games he played in last year. He finished with 21 touchdowns and only 6 interceptions, totaling 3,271 yards passing. He and Kyler Murray joined Robert Griffin III, Cam Newton, and Russell Wilson as the only rookie quarterbacks in NFL history to rush for 300 yards and throw 20+ touchdown passes. Not too bad for a rookie quarterback who was drafted in the sixth round.
The Jaguars liked him enough to part ways with Nick Foles whom they envisioned as their long term answer at quarterback. Now that mindset has shifted to Minshew. Like most rookie quarterbacks, Minshew is expected to improve in year two, especially now that he knows he is in the plans for the Jaguars present and future. The team has provided weapons on offense, most notably D.J. Chark and first-round pick Laviska Shenault. All reports from training camp have indicated that Minshew is locked in on improving every aspect of the offense which includes his game as well as everyone else's. He's acting like a coach on the field, he is showing heart and determination which goes a long way towards improving the overall morale and focus of the team. Minshew has a long way to go to be a top 10 quarterback, but top 15 and maybe even top 12 could be in the cards this year.
Jordan McNamara
Dak Prescott is QB1 and wins the MVP. Dallas was the best offense in total yards last year. The reason it goes under the radar? Horrible luck. Despite outscoring their opponents by 113 points, the third-best number in the NFC, they didn’t make the playoffs. On top of that, Prescott threw for 4902 yards on a slightly above average 5% touchdown rate on his way to a QB2 finish. In this offseason, the Dallas offense lost Jason Witten’s low-value targets while adding CeeDee Lamb. With Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, and Lamb on top of Ezekiel Elliott, the Dallas offense has enormous upside. I’m not certain on the proper bet at wide receiver but Prescott is going to capitalize on the franchise tag for an enormous payday.
Ryan Hester
I was going to say Prescott as the overall QB1, but that’s been said. And Prescott is a high-end QB draft pick already, so let’s go deeper.
Daniel Jones, Ben Roethlisberger, and Teddy Bridgewater will easily exceed their ADP-based expectations. But the flag-planting here is on Tom Brady. Each of the three quarterbacks mentioned will finish ahead of Brady on a points-per-game basis.
Andrew Davenport
Teddy Bridgewater ends the year as a QB1 - Top 12 at the position. It is tough to find an offense with more playmakers than the Panthers, and indeed, fantasy owners are bullish on several of them. Yet nobody wants to push Bridgewater up past the low QB2 range in drafts. Of course, there is no guarantee that new Head Coach Matt Rhule and Offensive Coordinator Joe Brady can handle the new landscape of the NFL after making the leap from college, but if they are as bright as purported to be they will take advantage of a couple of huge factors in their favor. They have dynamic players who can catch the ball near the line of scrimmage and excel with yards after the catch. Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel, and even Ian Thomas do this well. They also brought in Robby Anderson who is familiar with Rhule and will help to open up the field for the rest of the pass-catchers. If Bridgewater is limited as a passer because he likes to throw short he couldn't ask for a better spot to land. He is accurate and he can deliver the ball for the creators to do their thing.
The final thing that fantasy owners sometimes underestimate is that a teams' schedule, and a team's defense, can massively effect the fantasy bottom line by the end of the year. The Panthers lost some key players on their defense from 2019, including James Bradberry, Luke Kuechly, and Mario Addison. So while they drafted a lot of defensive players, they'll be one of the weaker squads out there. They have to put this defense up against the extremely tough NFC South, as well as the NFC North, and the offensively talented Chiefs and Cardinals. It would be a long shot for them to have many leads at all in 2020 and this means Bridgewater is going to throw the ball at a top ten clip at a minimum. He showed everyone last year that he can play, and now it's his turn to run with some gifted offensive minds alongside gifted offensive skill players. Bridgewater has almost no risk and is all upside.
Phil Alexander
After posting an admirable QB8 finish despite playing with Greg Ward as his WR1 for a significant portion of the season, Carson Wentz will finish as a top-three quarterback. A healthy DeSean Jackson and Jalen Reagor are massive upgrades on the perimeter. Their ability to stretch the field will open things up underneath for Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert. Miles Sanders adds value to his receptions out of the backfield, and Wentz can also create fantasy points with his legs. He’s currently being drafted as if he has a middling upside which couldn’t be further from the truth.
Joe Bryant
This one isn't a surprise but the guy I'm planting my flag with this year is Tom Brady. It's the classic "Was it the system or the athlete?" question. Or the bigger, "Teacher or the pupil?" drama. And it's fascinating.
I suspect the answer there is the same as it usually is: It's both. Belichick is great. Brady is great.
The reason I'm all in on Brady with this though is the dramatic upgrade in surrounding talent. He's going from a situation where Julian Edelman was far and away the best receiver to a team where Rob Gronkowski is arguably the fourth-best receiver.
Bruce Arians may not be Bill Belichick. But he's entirely capable. Byron Leftwich as OC and Todd Bowles running the defense is exciting. This is a really good team and staff.
The announced death of Brady's arm is way premature. He's never had freakish arm talent. He's simply just a great quarterback.
The big worry will be adapting to a new team. That's a worry any year, but especially in 2020. A familiar Rob Gronkowski will help there. Brady's always played the game with a mental over physical aspect and that should serve him well here as he acclimates.
Last but not least, it'll be incredibly fun. It's an age-old story and I'm here for it.
Sigmund Bloom
I like the Bridgewater, Roethlisberger, and Prescott calls.
Let's go deep. Tyrod Taylor will finish the season as a top-15 quarterback on a points per game basis and start for most if not all of the season. Anthony Lynn has experience winning with Taylor as an offensive coordinator and head coach, and loves how Taylor limits turnovers. He'll be allowed to run as much as any quarterback this side of Lamar Jackson and when Taylor does throw, he'll be targeting an excellent top-four group of targets. Taylor is free in drafts but can be drafted as your first three weeks starter with Cincinnati, Kansas City, and Carolina to open the season, especially useful if your QB1 is Daniel Jones but you want to avoid the opening gauntlet of Pittsburgh Chicago and San Francisco. Taylor is an ideal QB3 in 2QB/Superflex leagues if you don't pay up to get 3 top 25 options, and he's also there to bail you out if get caught on the other side of QB2/QB3 run in that format.
