Here we are again this year, back for more NFL picks. It is with great pleasure that I begin my second season writing this column. As someone who has won and lost their fair share of money on the NFL (and many other sports), this is bound to be a fun and unpredictable ride. Join me, won’t you?
As with the format in previous years, this article will help those of you who compete in confidence pools and in ranking selections, which may come in handy on those Las Vegas trips. Games are rated based on preference for both the point spread and other angles (such as totals or over/unders) with 1-3 “Stars”, which basically highlight the best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars are not preferred one way or the other, but will still be covered, discussed and a winner will be predicted for those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools.
With no preseason tape to munch on for the past few weeks, we have had to rely on whispers from training camp and our gut instincts. That may not be the worst thing entering a Week 1 that could feature plenty of missed assignments, slip-ups, and, frankly, rusty players. There is no telling how each team will start off in this unique season.
Note that the over/unders are taken from VegasInsider.com
(Thursday Night) HOUSTON at KANSAS CITY (-9.5) (Over/Under 55)
The reigning Super Bowl champion is 17-3 straight-up (SU) and 13-5-2 against the spread (ATS) in the season opener of the following year, according to Vegas Insider. This statistic in a vacuum bodes well for the Chiefs, a team whose players have spoken of building a dynasty this offseason. Fresh off receiving their flashy new Super Bowl rings, the prevailing wisdom suggests that a Patrick Mahomes II-led team should get the job done. However, a 9.5-point spread is a significant obstacle to maintaining the blistering pace that champions have hit in previous openers.
Another complicating factor is the oh-so-tricky Houston Texans coming to town. This offseason has featured discussion about the shifting power structures of the AFC, with hardly a mention of a team that has consistently made the postseason and knocked off some giants along the way. It is a tantalizing opener for many reasons, not least the fact it is the first football game of any kind we will have witnessed since the Super Bowl. It is the Deshaun Watson vs. Mahomes battle that is most enticing, and with an over/under of 55 points, the expectation is for fireworks. It took an inspired Mahomes performance to wrest last year’s postseason tilt back from Houston’s grasp, and Bill O’Brien’s team is battle-hardened. Houston is fancied to keep things interesting and cover the spread.
Pick: Houston
SEATTLE (-1 to -1.5) at ATLANTA (Over/Under 48.5)
The debut of Jamal Adams for the Seahawks will be oft-discussed heading into this early season duel between potential NFC contenders. Russell Wilson has the firepower around him to hit a higher plane of production; will Pete Carroll let the prodigious passer loose in the Georgia Dome, or rely on a ground-and-pound approach? History tells us the latter, though Atlanta’s defense features a returning Keanu Neal, who joins a strong defensive spine of Grady Jarrett and Deion Jones. Seattle has covered just 51% of games ATS as the away team since 2014.
As for the Falcons, Matt Ryan enters his 13th season as starting quarterback, missing just three games in that period. Camp reports suggest his rapport with Calvin Ridley is strengthening, while Todd Gurley makes an intriguing upgrade over Devonta Freeman. The offensive line is a major strength as well, which should give the Falcons a chance to lean on a talent-poor Seahawks defensive front throughout. Seattle has been installed as favorites, but the gut says Atlanta at home.
Pick: Atlanta
MIAMI at NEW ENGLAND (-6 to -6.5) (Over/Under 49)
No Tom Brady, no problem? That may be the attitude Bill Belichick takes on as he embarks on a new era as head coach of the Patriots. There are many rumors out there about how the relationship between Brady and the team morphed into something bitter, but Belichick has demonstrated his adaptability in the past. The wise play is to trust him to deliver with what on paper appears to be a rag-tag group. How Josh McDaniels will deploy new quarterback Cam Newton will be a fascinating subplot to watch in Week 1.
The Dolphins are improving offseason by offseason, but they are not there yet. Ryan Fitzpatrick will relish the return to New England after knocking off the division rivals last season. The Miami defense, featuring some former Patriots, should be able to assist in the preparation for this week. Despite an honest assessment of both rosters, however, the Patriots under Belichick still get the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise. The grand Newton unveil could turn into a reality check for Miami.
Pick: New England
CLEVELAND at BALTIMORE (-8) (Over/Under 48.5)
The Browns entered last season as a public favorite to finally put the pieces together and make a splash in the AFC. That optimistic outlook was swiftly met by a dose of cold, hard reality as Baker Mayfield disappointed and Freddie Kitchens was exposed as a coach in the wrong place with the wrong group of players. This season, the hiring of Kevin Stefanski has brought with it a renewed sense of optimism, not least because Mayfield appears to be working harder this offseason to improve his craft. The offensive line looks formidable and could give Baltimore’s front seven problems if Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt can get into gear.
The Ravens went just 2-5 (28.6%) ATS as a home favorite last year which, combined with an offseason of minimal activity for players, makes the 8.5-point spread a little baffling. Lamar Jackson is worth a couple of points on his own, clearly, but Baltimore, with several new pieces, are unlikely to be locked and loaded in Week 1, laying waste to the Browns along the way. Cleveland should be able to keep it close on the scoreboard.
Pick: Cleveland
NY JETS at BUFFALO (-6) (Over/Under 40)
Yet another early slate divisional clash to sink our teeth into. The total for this AFC East tilt – sitting at 40 – would lead us to believe a snooze fest of epic proportions is on the cards. A duel between Sam Darnold and Josh Allen could be wild, unpredictable, and downright entertaining. The Jets have had a forgettable offseason, losing key defender C.J. Mosley, trading away uber-talented Jamal Adams, and facing an injury crisis at wide receiver, to name but a few. The six-point line in Buffalo’s favor is fair considering the chasm – on paper, at least – between these teams seemingly going in opposite directions.
Sean McDermott’s masterful management of the Bills since taking over was rewarded this offseason with a contract extension. There is a sense that this could be the year the men from western New York finally break through and take the division. Vegas has their season win total set at 8.5, so the markets haven’t quite bought in fully yet. This is a perfect opener for the defense to thrive against a limited Jets offense and for Allen to show what another, albeit truncated, offseason has done for him. Bills in a landslide.
Pick: Buffalo
LAS VEGAS (-3) at CAROLINA (Over/Under 47)
The superiority of the Raiders’ offensive line over the inexperienced Carolina defensive line figures to be one of the key advantages in the road team’s favor this week. It is easy to get excited by the possibility of Teddy Bridgewater slinging it around with offensive whiz kid Joe Brady calling the shots, but Carolina has undergone an offseason of change and it will take time to bed in. Jon Gruden’s team, meanwhile, can lean on a year-to-year consistency among some personnel, with improvements in other areas – particularly at linebacker.
The gurus in the Raiders’ new home city have pegged this game with an over/under of 47 points, a decent endorsement for a potential shootout. With players short of offseason reps, and a game plan bound to feature plenty of Josh Jacobs, it would not be surprising to see Gruden try to build a lead and wear down the underpowered Panthers defense for the second half. If Las Vegas wants to be considered among the big boys of the AFC, this is the type of game they must show well in.
Pick: Las Vegas
PHILADELPHIA (-6) at WASHINGTON (Over/Under 44.5)
After an offseason of tumult, the Washington Football Team begins life back on the field with a visit from bitter division rival Philadelphia. The news of Ron Rivera’s cancer rocked the organization recently, but it appears the former Panthers head coach will be able to continue on the sidelines as normal. With no preseason to gauge Rivera’s early impact, this is something of a wildcard, with the defense worth watching – particularly when Chase Young is on the field.
Philadelphia’s offensive line took two significant hits in losing Brandon Brooks and Andre Dillard, so how they hold up against the likes of Young, Jonathan Allen, and DaRon Payne will be pivotal in the outcome. The Eagles get the nod in the spread as a six-point favorite, but that may be a little excessive in Week 1 with no offseason behind us to speak of. Some sportsbooks have Washington laying seven points, which is a bargain if you can grab it, but even the +6 looks tempting.
Pick: Washington
CHICAGO at DETROIT (-3) (Over/Under 43.5)
The Bears named Mitchell Trubisky as their starting quarterback, a decision that could prove to be fatal for Matt Nagy’s job prospects if things go south in this NFC North tilt. Nick Foles waits in the wings for his opportunity, and one must wonder how soon Nagy would be willing to pull the trap door switch on Trubisky. The injury to David Montgomery puts Tarik Cohen front and center at running back, though it will be the performance of the Bears defense that will be instrumental against a Lions offense featuring plenty of matchup problems.
Vegas have picked the perfect ATS number here – the safe three-pointer – for a divisional matchup that could come down to the end. The return of Matthew Stafford should be a huge boon for Detroit’s offense, with the connection to T.J. Hockenson up against Roquan Smith and Danny Trevathan a potentially exploitable area. In situations such as these, the wisest option is simply to take the points and see what plays out.
Pick: Chicago
INDIANAPOLIS (-7 to -7.5) at JACKSONVILLE (Over/Under 46)
The respect the Colts are getting with a -7 to -7.5 line may be entirely justified. It is a combination of Vegas’ lack of faith in the Jaguars, ostensibly a team headed straight for a top-five draft pick, and its approval of the solidly built Colts roster. Frank Reich’s team has all the pieces it needs to mount a serious challenge in the AFC. Much like the Raiders in Carolina this week, the Philip Rivers-led Colts must flex their muscles in this eminently winnable clash in the Jacksonville heat.
The Indianapolis offensive line should get plenty of work here, and it ranks among the best – if not the best – units in the league according to most experts. The grand reveal of rookie back Jonathan Taylor is something to watch, especially in the second half with the Colts likely to grind the Jaguars down. Gardner Minshew is a complicating factor and he showed a penchant for late heroics in his rookie campaign, so at +7.5 it looks tempting. The road team will get the job done, but Week 1 can be wacky at the best of times. Take the points if you are having a swing at this one.
Pick: Jacksonville
GREEN BAY at MINNESOTA (-3.5) (Over/Under 46.5)
Since Kirk Cousins took over as starter in 2018, the Vikings are 8-5-1 ATS (61.5%) as home favorites with an average margin of victory of 6.9 points in those tilts. They are 11-5 straight up as the home team over that period as well. A cursory glance at the roster would tell you this is a veteran team capable of riding out the disruption that Covid-19 has caused, leaning on continuity. The extra half-point that some sportsbooks have tacked on creates a little bit of extra risk.
After all, the Packers are coming off a season where they reached the precipice of a Super Bowl berth, only to be annihilated on the ground by San Francisco. One would suspect Minnesota to adopt a similar approach. Aaron Rodgers is a player who feeds off the vitriol of the doubters, so expect a fired-up version of him to take the field on Sunday. Clashes between these old foes are normally tight, so taking the points is the wisest choice.
Pick: Green Bay
LA CHARGERS (-3 to -3.5) at CINCINNATI (Over/Under 44)
All aboard the Joe Burrow Express, ladies and gentlemen. This train will be stopping at Interception Corner, Rookie Mistake Road, and Fumble City. You get the idea, folks. While Burrow is likely to take the league by storm with moments of magic in 2020, at some point the speed of the game gets to be too much, Burrow misreads a coverage and, unfortunately, bad plays happen. The loss of Derwin James makes the Chargers a less formidable proposition defensively, but you can be assured they have enough firepower to cause Cincinnati’s patchwork offensive line problems.
This is likely to be a low-scoring affair, however, making the -3 to -3.5 line exactly right. Tyrod Taylor and the Chargers offense is unlikely to light the world on fire, so it may come down to the defenses – and the Chargers have the superior unit. The gambling world will be rooting for the Bengals, but the cold, hard facts state that rookie quarterbacks in their first starts tend to struggle. A slight lean to Los Angeles to grind out a low-scoring victory.
Pick: Los Angeles
ARIZONA at SAN FRANCISCO (-7) (Over/Under 50)
The Super Bowl loser tends to struggle in Week 1. Over the past 21 years, according to Vegas Insider, these teams are 8-13 SU and 6-15 ATS in their opening clash. I can already hear the money pouring in on Arizona. And there is ample reason to do just that, all historical trends aside. The seven-point line in San Francisco’s favor is a classic example of projecting last year’s performance onto this year, something that would be unwise to do after a pandemic-hit offseason of preparation. There is no point in sugar-coating things: teams will be rusty. The well-oiled machine we saw in Kyle Shanahan’s team last year is unlikely to reignite at a moment’s notice.
Meanwhile, Kliff Kingsbury’s team has more than enough firepower to stay in the hunt in this opening game. The Arizona offense is likely to pick up their already fast pace of 2019, with Kyler Murray more comfortable in the system and with DeAndre Hopkins in tow. This is a late-afternoon game to watch with interest when you can peel your eyes from the Tampa-New Orleans tilt. Money is likely to come in on Arizona, so grab the +7 while you can and enjoy the show.
Pick: Arizona
TAMPA BAY at NEW ORLEANS (-3 to -3.5) (Over/Under 49.5)
It is the unquestioned popcorn game of the week. For years, fans have pleaded with the football gods for a Tom Brady-Drew Brees match-up in the Super Bowl; now, they get two battles in a season (at least). The Saints are laying just -3 to -3.5 points at home, a mark of respect from the Vegas sharps in Brady’s ability to be the tide to lift all ships in Tampa Bay. And there is reason to believe he could do just that. The link-up with old pal Rob Gronkowski will be must-see TV, while the Bucs defense does not get nearly enough credit and could feed off the lack of notoriety in the media.
New Orleans has been routinely finishing seasons on a disappointing note in recent years, so there is a lot of pressure on the Sean Payton-Drew Brees axis to get over the hump for what could be their final ride together. The Superdome will have an unfamiliar din without fans, and one has to wonder if the Saints players will have the same energy without the boost that the home fans provide. The New Orleans defense is a formidable unit and is certain to create problems for Brady, but the smart money here is on the Bucs to keep it close.
Pick: Tampa Bay
(Sunday Night) DALLAS (-2.5) at LA RAMS (Over/Under 50)
The nightcap for Sunday’s action features a tantalizing clash between two NFC playoff hopefuls, with the Cowboys riding a steady hype train into the season. The additions this offseason – notably CeeDee Lamb and Everson Griffen – could see Mike McCarthy’s team sail into the postseason and conquer a weak division in the NFC East. Dallas, as a strong public team, is laying points on the road, a significant vote of confidence from the men in the desert. Dak Prescott should thrive behind a cohesive offensive line and get off to a fast start.
But the Rams will not simply roll over for the visitors. Far from it. There could be offensive fireworks, in fact, with the total set at a conservative 50. The pace that the Rams play offensively can trouble any defense when executed correctly, particularly a defense that is lacking game action. The expectation is that the home team will keep it close, but Dallas has too much on paper.
Pick: Dallas
(Monday Night) PITTSBURGH (-5) at NY GIANTS (Over/Under 48)
This line has moved significantly in Pittsburgh’s favor over the past few weeks, settling at -5 or -6 depending on the sportsbook. The prevailing wisdom is that the Steelers, with Ben Roethlisberger back in tow and with a defense that won some games singlehandedly last season, can bounce back in a major way. It all starts on Monday Night Football, with Roethlisberger certain to test out that arm early and often against an underwhelming Giants defense. Pittsburgh can win this one in a variety of ways.
The same cannot be said for the G-Men, however. The defensive frailties in New York have been many and have been exposed often in recent seasons. The additions of Blake Martinez and James Bradberry may help a little bit, but these players alone will not turn this unit around. Expect the Steelers defense to hound Daniel Jones, punctuating the victory with a turnover or two.
Pick: Pittsburgh
(Monday Night) TENNESSEE at DENVER (-1.5) (Over/Under 42)
The final clash of Week 1 sees the Titans, fresh off signing Jadeveon Clowney, take on the Broncos. For many, this will be a chance for a quick nap after Steelers-Giants, but for others, it will be a chance to see the unveiling of the new-look Broncos offense and just how high Tennessee’s ceiling is. Many are sleeping on the Titans, but that would be unwise considering their top-to-bottom solid roster and the stability they boast from last season’s AFC Championship-losing team.
Drew Lock will have to make plays outside of structure against a formidable Titans front seven, something the young passer did well last season in patches. The Vegas total of 42 is spot on, as both defenses are likely to dictate to the offenses and not the other way around. How the Titans deal with Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy will be a fascinating watch. In a coin flip game, the home team gets the nod.
Pick: Denver
BEST BETS
Once again this year this article will give out not only the Best Bets but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 Star scale. The more stars, the bigger the emphasis on that side of the game - and the greater the confidence in the selection.
We begin again after a mediocre punt at the best bets last year. This week, we will focus our bets around the following lines:
- 1 NEW ENGLAND (-6.5) vs. MIAMI
- 2 PITTSBURGH (-6) at NEW YORK GIANTS
- 3 LAS VEGAS (-3) at CAROLINA
- 4 BUFFALO (-6) vs. NEW YORK JETS
With these likes in mind, here are the Week 1 selections:
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- 2-TEAM ATS DOUBLE (2.61-1 ODDS)
- PITTSBURGH (-6)
- NEW ENGLAND (-6.5)
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- 2-TEAM ATS DOUBLE (2.42-1 ODDS):
- BUFFALO (-6)
- LAS VEGAS (-3)
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- 4-TEAM MONEY LINE (2.81-1 ODDS)
- NEW ENGLAND - FOR THE WIN
- BUFFALO – FOR THE WIN
- PITTSBURGH – FOR THE WIN
- LAS VEGAS – FOR THE WIN
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: Pittsburgh, New England, Buffalo, Las Vegas, Arizona, Dallas
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to larkin@footballguys.com
Follow @davlar87