T.J. Hockenson Is a Draft Priority

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T.J. Hockenson is a Draft Priority

Last year was a bumper crop for value tight ends. Those who waited on the position and targeted Darren Waller or Mark Andrews were handsomely rewarded over those who tried to grab the second-tier of consensus TE1s like Evan Engram, Hunter Henry, and O.J. Howard. Every year brings a differing winning strategy, and early ADP makes a strong case for targeting either Travis Kelce or George Kittle in the second round. But if you're unable or unwilling to grab one of the two elite players at the position, your best bet is to target T.J. Hockenson in the middle rounds, well before his current ADP would suggest. He's as likely to be a bonafide league winner as anyone at any position.

• He's a generational talent
• He struggled as a rookie, as most great tight ends do
• Part of his struggles were because of poor quarterbacking
• Fantasy managers have short memories, and his rookie failings are driving his price down
• History suggests Year 2 could be transformational

A Generational Talent

T.J. Hockenson was selected 8th overall by the Detroit Lions last year; he went earlier than any tight end since Vernon Davis was drafted 6th overall in 2006. At 6-foot-5, 251 pounds, the former Iowa Hawkeye is a prototypical two-way tight end and was universally considered an impact prospect because he is an effective blocker -- something very few pass-catching tight ends can claim. He had no holes in his skill profile, outside of perhaps playing in a run-heavy offense and having to share the limelight with Noah Fant, who now plays for the Denver Broncos. Hockenson is not only a willing blocker, but has good footwork, power, and leverage. He's a precise route runner with soft hands and gains separation. He's strong enough to shed defenders either as a lead blocker in the run game or to get open in space as an outlet receiver. Every draft prospector imaginable had Hockenson atop the draft class, and most considered him the best prospect of the last decade. Our own Matt Waldman had this to say in his draft profile:

On a national level, mention an Iowa tight end in the scope of NFL Draft conversation and Noah Fant has been the first name to cross the lips of the public. That may be changing soon. As promising as Fant might be to some, he’s not even the best tight end prospect on his team. T.J. Hockenson has earned that unofficial title and it if subsequent viewings of both prospects yield similar information as what I’ve seen thus far, it might not even be close. This week’s RSP Film Room is a 15-minute analysis of Hockenson’s 104-yard, 2-touchdown performance against Indiana. However, it’s way more than his NFL chops as a receiver that makes him an exciting prospect. Blessed with prototypical size for the position and room to grow, Hockenson blocks like an Iowa tight end the way Nick Chubb runs between the tackles like a Georgia Bulldog. In addition to NFL-caliber receptions and releases, Hockenson displays skill with a variety of blocks that will be required of him on Sundays. This Hawkeye is one of the better all-around tight end prospects I’ve seen in years.

What Happened?

Hockenson earned the starting job in Detroit immediately and had a debut for the ages. Against the Cardinals, he caught six receptions (on nine targets) for 131 yards and a touchdown. In shallower leagues, that made Hockenson the top priority in waiver claims after the first week. Unfortunately, those who claimed the rookie after Week 1 were left with nothing to show for their FAAB dollars. In 11 more games, he caught just 26 receptions for 236 yards and 1 touchdown. His season ended on injured reserve with a bum ankle. On the season:

• 32 receptions (30th among NFL tight ends)
• 367 yards (25th)
• 2 touchdowns (Tie-33rd)
• 80.7 PPR points (31st)

So what happened? How did the can't-miss prospect of the year end up being a miss? It was a combination of several factors. One, rookie tight ends struggle. Even polished prospects have a hard job because they have to learn how to block like an offensive lineman and catch like a wide receiver. Two, he suffered a concussion against the Chiefs. Although he didn't miss game time, it's hard to disintermediate his struggles with the head injury. Three, he hurt his ankle on Thanksgiving and ended up missing the final month. Four, Matthew Stafford missed the final six weeks of the season. Any of those issues are surmountable by themselves, but the confluence did Hockenson in.

Those Who Don't Learn from History are Doomed to Repeat It

It's ENTIRELY RATIONAL to look at Hockenson's 2019 and worry. It wasn't good. But you cannot forget he plays the one position where a bad rookie year shouldn't be held against him. History is on his side in a massive way. Consider the following rookie tight end seasons:

A Sampling of 10 "Random" Rookie Tight End Box Scores

All in all, it's a collection of unremarkable performances. None were fantasy relevant, and all were forgettable. But now let's look at the players who actually delivered on these seasons:

Rookie Seasons, All-Time Great Tight Ends

You're looking at a who's who of modern era tight ends. All of these players are either in the Hall of Fame, locks for admission, or at the top of their craft currently. And every one of them had rookie seasons they would like to forget. These ten all-timers averaged just 55 targets, 35 receptions, 423 yards, and 3 touchdowns in their rookie seasons. [Note: If you're wondering why Travis Kelce and Shannon Sharpe aren't included, it's because Kelce missed his entire rookie season with an injury and Sharpe was a part-time player in Denver for several seasons before getting an opportunity]. We can't say it enough -- ROOKIE TIGHT ENDS STRUGGLE. Even the best of all time. Here's the good news, Year 2 was much different for the collective.

Year 2 for the Same 10 Great Tight Ends

Booyah! We've hit the motherlode. This group put on a fantasy clinic in their collective second seasons, averaging 115 targets, 76 receptions, 993 yards, and 8 touchdowns. That's an average of 223.3 fantasy points, which would rank at or near the top of the fantasy standings in any season:

Where 223.2 Fantasy Points Would Rank Among Fantasy TEs

• 2019 -- TE2 (behind Kelce, ahead of Waller)
• 2018 -- TE5 (behind Ebron, ahead of Cook)
• 2017 -- TE3 (behind Gronkowski, ahead of Ertz)
• 2016 -- TE1 (ahead of Kelce)
• 2015 -- TE6 (behind Olsen, ahead of Watson)
• 2014 -- TE3 (behind Graham, ahead of Gates)
• 2013 -- TE2 (behind Graham, ahead of Thomas)
• 2012 -- TE4 (behind Witten, ahead of Miller)
• 2011 -- TE3 (behind Graham, ahead of Hernandez)
• 2010 -- TE2 (behind Witten, ahead of Davis)

To put a final point on the comparison, T.J. Hockenson's rookie year wasn't impressive. But it was nearly identical to the average rookie season for the best to ever play the position. He Hockenson does what that group did in their second years, we're looking at a potential top-3 tight end with a top-10 floor, at a cost equivalent to where your leaguemates will be targeting placekickers and backup quarterbacks.

Hockenson vs. The Greats, Year 1 and Year 2

STATS AND PROJECTIONS

Final Thoughts

The NFL is a fickle beast. Many 'can't miss' prospects end up being footnotes in the annals of history, only to be brought to light in an obscure local trivia night at your favorite sports bar. And the Lions -- Hockenson's team -- have more than their fair share of forgettable whiffs: Mike Williams, Charlie Rogers, Roy Williams, Joey Harrington, Andre Ware. But ultimately as fantasy analysts, we have to trust the pedigree and the opportunity. Hockenson's pedigree is unassailable. The game tape at Iowa answered every question both as a blocker, receiver, and in the open field with the ball in his hands. His university has a storied history at the position, including George Kittle, Hockenson's predecessor. Most scouts who watched them both saw Hockenson as the better player. His measurables back up what we saw on tape, as did his dynamic training camp and preseason last year. But, his 2019 regular season wasn't great. But we shouldn't have expected otherwise. Pick a great NFL tight end from your stack of Topps cards and chances are they had a forgettable first year. It's the rite of passage at the position. Hockenson's rookie numbers were nearly identical to what all the best to ever play the game delivered. And yet that same group went on to dominate starting in their second seasons. As long as Matthew Stafford is healthy, there's no reason Hockenson should markedly improve. If he matches his comp group, you're getting a top-3 fantasy tight end at a bottom-20 cost. But even if he falls somewhere short of those lofty historical comparisons, he's got a top-10 floor yet can be had near the end of your draft. If you're looking for this year's Mark Andrews or Darren Waller, it's last year's rookie bust. Bet on it.

Thoughts From Around the Industry

ProFootballFocus' Andrew Erickson also sees Hockenson as a 2020 breakout:

Ultimately, a second-year breakout for Hockenson is going to rely on the health of both Stafford and Hockenson himself. Stafford increased the production of the entire Detroit offense during the first half of the season, and Hockenson greatly benefitted. The Lions ranked 10th in total targets to the tight end position during that stretch of games, and Hockenson saw the 12th-most targets at the position.

NumberFire's Brandon Gdula sees the case for a breakout, but thinks it's a difficult road:

So, while -- yes -- a good number of tight ends have a general, anecdotal case to finish as a top-four option, that just muddies the waters for projecting any single one for an elite season. You can make the case for Hockenson to make the jump, but he's got a lot of other competition to outperform in order to finish as a significant game-changer.

Rotoballer's Chris O'Reilly sees elite talent, but worries about the target volume:

Carving out a more prominent role for himself in the Lions' passing attack won't be a walk in the park as long as Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones are hanging around, and all of these factors are appropriately baked into Hockenson's TE19 ADP.

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