FanDuel GPP Guide: Week 14

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Saturday Night Update

1. The biggest late-breaking news of the week was Myles Gaskin being placed on the COVID list. DeAndre Washington ($4,800) should step into the lead role and instantly becomes one of the best value plays on the slate. Washington was essentially the Dolphins fourth running back but with the top three backs out, he should step into a featured role. Given his receiving ability, he comes with a solid floor and should be able to produce even if Miami falls behind early to the Chiefs. He makes an obvious “run it back” option alongside any Mahomes stacks, easing the salary crunch that rostering Mahomes and one of his top weapons creates. Be wary of making the rest of your lineup too chalky if you go with Mahomes-Hill-Washington.

Dolphins now down three RBs on Sunday vs. Chiefs: Myles Gaskin, Matt Breida (reserve/COVID) and Salvon Ahmed (shoulder).

It leaves DeAndre Washington, Patrick Laird and Elijah McGuire as the Dolphins’ three primary backs for Sunday. https://t.co/FkBAQLJ8Sk

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 12, 2020

1. The more I look at the Tennessee-Jacksonville matchup, the more excited I get about the shootout potential. The Jaguars have been decimated by injuries at cornerback. Tennessee is dealing with its own issues. Malcolm Butler is locked in at one spot. However, with Adoree Jackson, Breon Borders, and Kristian Fulton out it is unclear who will start on the outside opposite of Butler. Jonnu Smith was cleared to return for the Titans, giving Ryan Tannehill another weapon. This game is very stackable.
2. D’Andre Swift looks good to go for the Lions but Kenny Golladay will miss another week. Swift and Marvin Jones are both strong options in Green Bay game stacks. It could be a scoring bonanza for the Packers and the Lions will need to be aggressive to try to keep pace.

#Lions RB D'Andre Swift (illness-questionable) had a full practice on Friday. WR Kenny Golladay (hip) is out.#GBvsDET

— Adam Caplan (@caplannfl) December 11, 2020

1. The Jets are in a world of hurt at wide receiver. Denzel Mims is out due to COVID protocols. Jamison Crowder is trending towards doubtful. Breshad Perriman ($5,800) should see plenty of targets. Don’t sleep on Braxton Berrios ($4,800) either. He has been productive when given snaps and is likely to have a great game script to see a bunch of targets. The wide receiver woes for the Jets may limit the upside of the Seahawks passing game a bit. It is hard to envision a scenario where this game shoots out.

So there’s a chance the Jets will face the Seahawks without Mims AND Crowder. The WR injury woes are back. Look for Jeff Smith and Braxton Berrios to fill in. #Jets

— Rich Cimini (@RichCimini) December 11, 2020

Quarterback

Last week, quarterback was tough on the main slate and we recommended going down to Taysom Hill or Kirk Cousins and fading the top quarterbacks. This week is the opposite. There are a few strong options at the top

Patrick Mahomes II, Kansas City ($8,900 — 12%)

The spread in quarterback pricing on FanDuel this week is small and the top quarterbacks each have high floors combined with massive upside. Despite the chalkiness, it is worth locking in Mahomes at the top of your tournament lineup. The matchup is not great against a well-coached Miami defense but does it matter with Mahomes? He has averaged a ridiculous 383 passing yards per game over his last five. There is not a lot of point in selling Mahomes here. We all know he is good. So let’s spend a bit of time looking at Mahomes in Week 14 from a game theory perspective.

In tournaments, this is a rare spot where playing Mahomes unstacked may make some sense. There are going to be a ton of Mahomes-Hill or Mahomes-Kelce lineups out there. It is not an exaggeration to say that in a tournament like the NFL Sunday Million, there could be something like 40,000 entries with both Mahomes and Hill. That does not mean it is a bad play to stack the pair. You still have to score the most points to win and that looks like a good bet to be the highest-scoring duo. However, f you are going to stack Mahomes with Hill (and/or Kelce), then you want to be thinking even harder than normal about finding some contrarian plays you are comfortable with because otherwise you are going to be competing against a lot of similar lineups. It is recommended that you stack your quarterback with at least one of his top targets in nearly every lineup. We can make the case that Mahomes this week is a possible exception. If Mahomes gets a rushing touchdown and spreads the targets around a bit more than he has in recent weeks, it is easy to see his top targets not paying off huge salaries even if Mahomes puts up 30 fantasy points. There may be only a few thousand Mahomes “naked” lineups compared to tens of thousands of Mahomes-Hill and Mahomes-Kelce lineups, so this is a contrarian build with a chalky player that could make some sense.

Taysom Hill, New Orleans ($7,700 — 4%)

We could see over half the lineups in most FanDuel tournaments with one of the handful of elite, highly-priced quarterbacks. As mentioned above, these types of rosters are probably optimal this week given how good a spot many of the top passers are in and the relatively small spread in pricing. However, there is almost always value in going contrarian and digging down to try to unearth some lower-priced, lower-rostered gems at the position makes sense. Taysom Hill is a great example. He saves you some money, will automatically give you a unique roster, and has as much fantasy upside as anyone at the position.

Philadelphia gave up 108 rushing yards and a touchdown to Lamar Jackson and also gave up 156 yards and a touchdown on the ground in two matchups versus Daniel Jones. This is a spot where Hill could have a big day on the ground. In three starts, Hill is averaging 59 rushing yards and 1.3 rushing touchdowns per game — just a shade under 14 FanDuel PPG just with his legs. The rushing ability, especially in the red zone, gives Hill a massive ceiling. He has also proven capable as a passer and shown a strong connection with Michael Thomas. If trying to get away from the Mahomes chalk, Hill makes a lot of sense as a pivot.

Other Quarterbacks to Consider

Running Back

For the second straight week, we have a lot of strong options at running back spread out over a wide range of salaries. There are quite a few strong options under $7K. We also have Derrick Henry and Aaron Jones in potential smash spots if we can afford to fit them in.

Aaron Jones, Green Bay ($8,700 — 15%)

It is surprising that Jones is not expected to be even more popular this week. He is a talented back that has shown he can be the guy who dominates a fantasy slate on a regular basis. One of those times was his 43.6 point performance against these same Detroit Lions back in Week 2. Jones exploded for 236 total yards and 3 touchdowns. The Lions have not fixed their run defense even a little bit. Last week, David Montgomery and Cordarrelle Patterson combined for 37.9 fantasy points while scoring a combined three rushing touchdowns. Huge fantasy games by opposing backfields have happened with regularity against these Lions. Detroit has given up 37+ FanDuel points to half of the running back groups they have faced this season.

David Montgomery, Chicago ($6,600 — 12%)

Montgomery was good chalk last week and is in another great spot in Week 14. He has put together two of the better games of his young career back-to-back. He has averaged 127 total yards and 1.5 touchdowns in his last two and continues to get heavy usage as a pass catcher. He’s averaging a whopping 5.4 targets per game in his last eight games, which even in the half-PPR FanDuel format helps to give him a solid fantasy floor. The upside hadn’t been there until recently but it is possible that Montgomery is simply figuring some things out at this point in his career. He is a 23-year old with fewer than 30 NFL games under his belt so it is possible we are starting to see a breakout from which Montgomery emerges as a legitimate fantasy RB1. The matchup is another strong one. The Bears are home favorites and Houston ranks second-to-last in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (150.9) and per carry (4.86). The Texans are allowing 28.6 FanDuel points per game to opposing running backs. With Montgomery dominating the backfield touches for the Bears, he projects as a strong play this week and the $3,000 savings he provides compared to Derrick Henry provides a ton of flexibility when constructing the rest of your roster.

Chris Carson, Seattle ($7,600 — 8%)

Pete Carroll seems to be itching to get Chris Carson rolling right now. Carson has eased his way back into action after missing a couple weeks but could be unleashed against the Jets. “He feels better this week going into the week than he’s felt at any time, so I think this week is really a time we have a chance to cut him loose and he can take the full load,” Carroll said this week. Even not fully “cut loose” Carson had solid usage last week, getting 13 carries and 6 targets against the Giants (which he turned into 110 yards and a touchdown).

The Jets have been respectable against the run while giving up a boatload of big plays in the passing game this season. On paper, it looks like a game to target the Seahawks passing offense. However, you can throw a lot of the stats out the window because the Jets fired defensive coordinator Gregg Williams this week. We should see fewer men in the box and no cover zero blitzes under interim coordinator Frank Bush. We do not know exactly what to expect from the Jets defense schematically but we do know that Seattle is a 13.5 point home favorite and that Carson looks poised for a heavy workload. This is a spot where Carson has a good chance of popping off for 125+ yards and multiple touchdowns.

Other Running Backs to Consider

Wide Receiver

We will see how things shake out over the weekend but Week 14 projects to be a fun week where there are few extremely chalky wide receivers. There are a lot of strong options but few players at the position truly stand out as massive values. This week’s list of recommended plays is going to look a lot like last week’s, where we had Davante Adams, Keke Coutee, and DK Metcalf at the top of our lists.

Davante Adams, Green Bay ($9,600 — 28%)

If there is one wide receiver who projects to be decently chalky this week, it is Adams. However, if you can fit him in you should play him. His usage and production this season has been off the charts. Last week was yet another monster performance (10-121-2) and there is no reason to think he slows down against the Lions and their struggling defensive backfield that has been decimated by injuries. The Lions are arguably most vulnerable against the run but have still allowed the 7th-most FanDuel points to opposing wide receivers this season. It feels like a week where either Adams or Aaron Jones is going to have a huge day, so trying to fit one of the two into as many of your lineups as possible is a strong strategy.

DK Metcalf, Seattle ($8,600 — 10%)

Russell Wilson has cooled off considerably over the last four weeks, being held to less than 270 passing yards in each and throwing just four touchdowns total. Metcalf has seen a drop in production as well, though given the context of Wilson’s overall modest output of late, his numbers actually look quite strong in context. For example, Russell Wilson threw for just 230 yards two weeks ago and 177 of those yards went to Metcalf. He has really left Tyler Lockett in the dust and emerged as a target hog for the Seahawks. We do not know exactly what to expect from this reeling Jets defense under new coordinator Frank Bush but we know the Jets do not have anyone who can slow Metcalf. As with the Packers, it feels like Seattle is in such a great spot that either the RB1 or WR1 is going to go off. Trying to fit either Metcalf or Chris Carson into as many lineups as possible should pay off.

Keke Coutee, Houston ($5,600 — 9%)

Coutee’s price jumped up $800 from last week but he is still underpriced given his current role in the Texans offense now that both Will Fuller and Randall Cobb are out. Coutee is the 1B behind Brandin Cooks in one of the league’s two or three hottest passing offenses. Deshaun Watson has been absolutely on fire. He has thrown for 300+ yards in seven of his last nine games. In the two he did not hit 300, he came close in one (281 passing yards) and the other was one of the worst weather games of the season (Cleveland Week 10). We should not be at all surprised if Watson is able to make it 8-of-10 games with 300+ passing yards. If so, there are few paths to 300+ for Watson that do not include big numbers for Coutee, who was on the receiving end of 29% of Watson’s completions last week.

Other Wide Receivers to Consider