Each week, Footballguys staff members will share the big movers in their respective Dynasty Rankings. Since the contributors will rotate, please check in weekly. The focus of this article will be on the “why” more than the movement itself. Dynasty Rankings are fluid and we hope that sharing the rationale will help you in your quest to create dynasties with all your teams. The diversity of rankings will result in a variety of opinions weekly.
Quarterback
Tefertiller
Lamar Jackson – Jackson moves from QB2 to QB7 in the rankings as the Ravens offense has struggled to move the ball in 2020. With the youngsters playing so well, there is no reason to rank Jackson so high at this point. I still believe in his talent, but there is something amiss and the risk is not worth ranking him so high.
Taysom Hill – While I am not the largest Hill fan, there is no denying the Saints organization holds him in high regard. Much to the chagrin of fantasy managers, Hill is the unquestioned backup behind Drew Brees in what could be Brees’ last season. Hill has long-term upside buoyed by his rushing prowess. While he may have opportunities going forward, it was painfully obvious in Sunday’s game against the Broncos that Sean Payton and the coaching staff like him more than fans.
Alex Smith – Even before the upset victory on Thanksgiving, coach Ron Rivera was telling reporters how he wanted Smith back as the 2021 starting quarterback. Washington has legitimate playoff hopes with Smith under center. He could very well be the best quarterback in the NFL East. Smith is only a fantasy option in two-quarterback and superflex leagues.
McNamara
Carson Wentz - This is a time of year where rankings should stabilize, and new information is not as valuable as earlier in the season. That said, the performance of Carson Wentz is alarming. A common defense of Wentz has been his poor offensive line play, but the sample size of poor performances, including those in prior years with top 12 offensive lines, is a good indication of who he is: at his best, with everything going well, an above-average quarterback. If there is anything going wrong, Wentz looks like the worst contract in the NFL. Wentz will probably fall to a value that makes him a target in the offseason, but it will take a deep plunge into the late teens or early twenties of quarterbacks, especially after rookies are included in startup drafts.
Grant
Carson Wentz and Jalen Hurts – The Eagles haven’t given up on Wentz yet, but they are sliding Hurts into their offense more and more. If Philadelphia played in any other division in the league, they’d be pushing all-in with Hurts. But in the NFC LEast, where 6 wins might actually make the playoffs, the Eagles don’t want to throw in the towel yet. Wentz may not be the long-term quarterback in Philadelphia, and he’s more of a QB2 for your fantasy team. Hurts deserves a little bump up, but it remains to see if he’s a guy who can carry the offense with 60+ snaps a game.
Daniel Jones– Speaking of NFC LEast, Daniel Jones and the Giants continue to struggle. Jones has yet to throw for more than 280 yards passing in any game this season and has just eight passing touchdowns compared with nine interceptions over the first 11 games this season. Jones hasn’t had a touchdown pass in his last two games against Philadelphia and Cincinnati. He’s the named starter for the Giants but is a terrible fantasy option for your team in anything but the most desperate situations.
Taysom Hill – Drew Brees isn’t going to lose his job to Hill any time soon, but he is going to be out for a couple of weeks due to injury. Hill got the starting nod over Jameis Winston this week, and while he hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass yet, he did have 4 rushing touchdowns in the last two weeks. He’ll be the starter for the Saints down the stretch and deserves a roster spot if only to see what else he can do.
Running Back
Grant
Nick Chubb – Chubb came back from injury and promptly posted over 400 yards from scrimmage and two rushing touchdowns in the last three games. He’s the primary back of the one-two punch from Cleveland with Kareem Hunt but Chubb is the guy you want to target for your fantasy team. Cleveland may have huge question marks at wide receiver – but they know that their success is tied to their running game. Chubb is a huge part of it and he’s a solid RB1 for any fantasy team.
Antonio Gibson – Yes Gibson wishes he could play against Dallas every week, but Gibson has eight rushing touchdowns in the last five games and has 11 rushing touchdowns for the season. Washington is going to struggle for a year or two until they figure out how to rebuild – but Gibson is one of the few pieces they don’t need to focus on anymore.
James Robinson – Jacksonville may not win another game this season, but James Robinson is the real deal and he has cemented himself into the Jacksonville starting lineup. Despite their abysmal record, Robinson has 528 yards rushing and 3 rushing touchdowns in the Jaguars’ last 5 games. Jacksonville is leaning on Robinson as their single running back, and players like him generate monster fantasy numbers on pure volume alone. Robinson is still an RB2 because of the team he plays on, but if Jacksonville can put some bigger pieces around him, he’s going to be a fantasy stud for the next several seasons.
McNamara
KeShawn Vaughn - Vaughn has done little this season and has been a healthy scratch in recent weeks, which should help his cost bottom out. He should be a target player in the offseason if he falls outside the top 150 in startups in a similar way as Darrell Henderson was in 2020 startup drafts off of a disappointing rookie season. Leonard Fournette will be a free agent which should open an opportunity for Vaughn to be at worst an injury away running back in 2021.
Damien Harris - Harris is lining up as an interesting offseason valuation. He has taken a firm grasp of the starting running back job in the past several weeks and consolidated a strong snap share (64%) in the first game after Rex Burkhead’s injury. James White and Rex Burkhead are both free agents in the offseason, which should give Harris the ability to consolidate some of the receiving game work in the backfield if one or both leave in free agency. The big hit to his value has been Cam Newton’s work in the red zone and with Newton also a free agent, Harris has upside in all facets of the offense in 2021.
Tefertiller
Joe Mixon – His move down the rankings was less about the injuries, and more about the three rookies easily outplaying the veteran. Mixon has enjoyed a few great games this season and should not be viewed as an elite RB1.
Antonio Gibson – The 2020 rookie is dominating the top-20 running back rankings. Gibson enjoyed an outstanding Thanksgiving Day outing against the porous Dallas defense. Washington has their running back of the present and future.
Benny Snell – With James Conner likely to exit in free agency after the season, Snell makes an intriguing fantasy “buy” candidate as he could inherit the workload. He has played passably in small amounts and could be poised for a breakout in 2021.
Wayne Gallman – While Gallman has been in the league for a few years, he has vastly improved this season. With both Barkley and Freeman out of action, Gallman has been better. While he may never be a long-term viable fantasy option, Gallman is capable, even on the Giants.
Wide Receiver
McNamara
Gabriel Davis - Davis is a great dynasty stash. An exceedingly rare wide receiver target from day three of rookie drafts, Davis has flashed as a rookie and the depth chart could break his way in 2021. John Brown has been oft-injured following his 2019 breakout season and could become a cap casualty with the emergence of Davis and Stefon Diggs ascension to a bona fide WR1. If that occurs, Davis is a prime candidate to take over on the outside opposite Stefon Diggs in the Buffalo offense.
Courtland Sutton - Sutton’s last 24 months have been a roller coaster. He broke out in 2019, only to see the Broncos select two wide receivers in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft. Sutton now has missed nearly the entire season with an injury. In the meantime, Denver has been a disappointing offense, with Drew Lock failing his opportunity to be a franchise quarterback. Now, Denver will yet again look for another quarterback in the offseason which will present another hurdle for Sutton’s dynasty future. Sutton has a good production profile and should be affordable in offseason drafts.
Tefertiller
Tee Higgins – Higgins has been a true alpha receiver and should be ranked as one. The rookie is still very young and is paired with Joe Burrow for many years. I moved him above some of the bigger-name veterans producing similar numbers. He does not turn 22 years of age until after the season (January 18).
Diontae Johnson – JuJu Smith-Schuster is likely on a different team next year as the Steelers do not have the cap space to afford him along with the other free agents. Johnson has been impressive and is only getting better. Chase Claypool also moved up the rankings.
Henry Ruggs – While still blazing fast, the Raiders have been unable to leverage Ruggs’ ability to make plays. He is an afterthought in the Las Vegas offense. Even though he was the first receiver taken in the fabulous receiver class, he should not be ranked in the same stratosphere as the top pass-catchers in the class.
Grant
DK Metcalf – Metcalf is only in his second season and he’s already one of the top fantasy receivers in the league. The Seahawks target him often, and his 18.0 yards per reception make him even more valuable in big-play leagues. Metcalf has a long career ahead of him and would be a great WR1 for any dynasty league. He’s definitely a guy you can build a team around.
Will Fuller – Fuller gets an immediate downgrade by missing the final six games of the season due to suspension for PED. Fuller has been on fire this year, and maybe he might bounce back from this. But Fuller has always been an injury risk and his success this year has been largely due to him being healthy. He’s an unrestricted free agent going into the offseason and this will be a mark against him both in free agency and in fantasy.
Marquise Brown – Brown is still the best receiver on the team. But the Ravens are still a run-first, run-often team and their receivers are a risk play at best. Brown has just six receptions in the last four games and has only two receiving touchdowns for the season. Until the offense starts moving back his way, he needs to be downgraded.
T.Y. Hilton– Hilton finally got into the end zone this week, but he’s still a shadow of his former self. With young guys like Michael Pittman, Zach Pascal, and Parris Campbell on the roster, Hilton’s upside per game and for the season has a hard cap. Questions at quarterback don’t help. Hilton had a great career, but his long-term value is trending downward.
Tight End
Tefertiller
Darren Waller – Even though he is on the older side, Waller is producing elite tight end fantasy numbers. He moves into the top-5 ranked tight ends with his strong production. His ranking is also helped by the lacking numbers of tight ends like Andrews, Ertz, etc.
T.J. Hockenson – The young tight end moves up to TE6 as his talent is flashing on the field, even though the Lions went large amounts of the Thanksgiving game without looking to their best play-maker (with Golladay and Swift sidelined) involved. The talent is present and the next Detroit coaching staff should see him as a key piece of the offense.
Grant
Hayden Hurst – Hurst has already set career highs for receptions, yards, and touchdowns this season, and he’s only played in 11 games. He was shutout two weeks ago against the Saints, but he’s been targeted seven or more times in four of the last five games. The Falcons are struggling this year, but Hurst has been a pretty consistent part of their offense. He’s a top-12 fantasy tight end and a guy you can count on every week.
Cole Kmet – Chicago is in line for some big changes this offseason. Between the constant losing to the Packers and the complete lack of talent at quarterback, you could see a whole new coaching staff and offense come next season. Kmet was a decent pick, but he has done nothing to make him a must-have on the Chicago roster. If changes do come, Kmet doesn’t have a track record to rely on. He is not a guy I’d have a lot of confidence in at this point.
McNamara
Eric Ebron - Ebron is a classic profitable profile at tight end: first-round NFL Draft selection with a history of top-12 seasonal production at a cheap cost. Ebron struggled early in his career but has rebounded after leaving Detroit. His three teams in four years is a concern, but he profiles similar to Jared Cook who disappointed early in his career but rebounded after a change of scenery for multiple top-12 seasons in his career.
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