Each week, Footballguys staff members will share the big movers in their respective Dynasty Rankings. Since the contributors will rotate, please check in weekly. The focus of this article will be on the “why” more than the movement itself. Dynasty Rankings are fluid and we hope that sharing the rationale will help you in your quest to create dynasties with all your teams. The diversity of rankings will result in a variety of opinions weekly.
Quarterback
Tefertiller
Philip Rivers – Rivers does not have the arm strength of his early career and is unable to find his play-makers down the field. This could be his last year in Indianapolis and in the NFL. Sure, his consecutive three-touchdown games are attractive, but they are from dump-offs and only a fantasy mirage.
Gardner Minshew – Even before the injury, Minshew was not playing well. The Jaguars are circling the drain and likely drafting a quarterback with the high-first-round pick. His injury could make him miss multiple weeks. This is a team in transition. Minshew should have a long career, even if holding a clipboard for many years, ala Colt McCoy.
McNamara
Sam Darnold - Sam Darnold is very concerning. On average, top 10 NFL Draft picks at the quarterback position who fail to hit for a top 12 seasonal finish start 50 games. Darnold has started 32 and now has a reaggravated shoulder injury. His team is also starring down the barrel of the first overall pick, and the opportunity to reset the clock at quarterback with a new coaching staff. This is a dangerous value situation. Entering the season, Darnold’s priors, top 10 NFL Draft picks without a top 12 seasonal finish entering year three, hit 47% of the time for a future top 12 seasonal finish. When those quarterbacks miss in year three, the hit rate drops to 11%. Darnold is clearly in that 11% group at this point in his career as he is a near-certain miss in 2020. Darnold may have room for a Ryan Tannehill-type second act, but his value has fallen considerably.
Grant
Justin Herbert – Hebert had a huge game against the Jaguars two weeks ago, and had the Chargers out to a 24 to 10 lead against the Broncos before the defense collapsed and gave up 21 points to lose by 1. Hebert has 625 yards passing and six touchdowns against just two interceptions and even posted 87 yards rushing and a touchdown as well. He’s well on his way to offensive rookie of the year and is firmly entrenched as the Charger starting quarterback.
Gardner Minshew – Injuries and poor play have Minshew looking at the bench after the Jaguars come back from a bye week. He was a serviceable fantasy quarterback up to this point and given how bad Jacksonville has been playing, there’s a decent chance that Minshew won’t really be given much of a chance to regain his starting job. He’s still worth a roster spot in any dynasty league, but also don’t hesitate to drop him if you need to make room for a player with a bigger upside.
Kyle Allen – The NFC East is pretty pathetic this season, but even at 2-5, Washington is well in the hunt for the division at the half-way point in the season. With their next 4 games against the Giants, Lions, Bengals, and Cowboys and the NFL considering a 16-team playoff system, Kyle Allen could be the starting quarterback on a division leader with a decent shot at making the playoffs by game 12. Washington appears to be done with Dwayne Haskins at this point and if Allen can string together a couple more wins, he could cement himself as Washington’s starting quarterback for the rest of the season.
Running Back
Grant
Joe Mixon – The Bengals started out the season with a lot of promise, and aside from the 27-3 drubbing by the Ravens, they have been in every game this year. Unfortunately, Joe Mixon has not been, and his foot injury continues to keep him on the sidelines heading into the bye week. Hopefully, he can get healthy and get back on track. Not only does Mixon need to get healthy, but his pedestrian 3.6 yards per carry isn’t scaring defenses. He needs to take it up a notch as the Bengals head into the second half of the season, or the Bengals could move on without him after the season is over.
Nick Chubb – Chubb is on IR with his MCL injury, but fortunately won’t require surgery and he could be back before the end of the season. However, Kareem Hunt and DErnest Johnson are both performing well in his absence, and the Browns could move Chubb to more of a platoon situation to avoid any further injuries. He’s still a solid running back that you can count on to put up RB1 numbers when he’s healthy, but he’ll quickly fall into the 10-15 range for fantasy backs if he becomes part of a committee in Cleveland.
David Montgomery – Montgomery is the entire Chicago running game, but he still can’t seem to crack 100 yards rushing. He did set season highs for carries and rushing yards against the Saints this week with 21 carries for 89 yards, but he only has two touchdowns despite being a 20+ touch game back. Chicago is winning ugly and Montgomery is getting lost in the shuffle. He deserves a downgrade until Chicago figures out what kind of team they are.
Aaron Jones – The Packers are a different team with Aaron Jones out of the offense. This week against the Vikings, they jumped out to an early lead and tried to control the ball and the clock but couldn’t. The Vikings battled back and the one-two punch of Jamaal Williams and A.J. Dillon couldn’t get it done. They both averaged more than 4 yards per carry but were never able to punch the ball into the end zone and even when Green Bay was on the Viking goal-line, it was Rodgers arm that got them into the end zone. Jones could be back in the lineup this week and the Packers need him now more than ever. He’s a stud back for your fantasy team and a guy you and the Packers can count on from week to week.
McNamara
Jonathan Taylor - There has been some hand wringing in the dynasty community recently over Jonathan Taylor. His week 8 workload was quizzical but news after the game indicated he is battling an injury. This seems consistent with the uptick of workload for Jordan Wilkins in week eight after seeing diminishing snap shares since early in the season. While Taylor has not reached the heights some hoped in year one, he is a top 24 running back so far in his rookie season. Notably, Taylor ranks in the top ten in yards per route run for running backs with 10 or more targets, which is a good sign his college receiving efficiency is translating to the NFL. If his price is slipping, he is an easy buy candidate.
Kenyan Drake - Kenyan Drake is a concerning player. On a one-year transition tag, Drake came in with high expectations. After out-targeting Chase Edmonds 35 to 2 during his time in Arizona in 2019, Drake has seen his target volume plummet to only 10 targets, while Edmonds is the preferred passing game option with 32. Now injured, Drake will struggle to rehab his market value and may again be forced to play on a one-year deal, which significantly hurts his dynasty value.
Tefertiller
James Robinson – Robinson was already ranked highly but his continued strong play shows he is no fluke. The time to “buy” is closing as the price continued to rise. On a team with so many holes to fill, the running back position looks solid for years to come.
Antonio Gibson – Already with more carries than in his college career, Gibson has proven his doubters wrong with strong play. On an offense devoid of talent sans Terry McLaurin, Gibson shines and gives Washington a legitimate shot at the division title.
Chase Edmonds – Edmonds will get his chance to shine this week as Kenyan Drake is nicked up. This could be a Wally Pipp moment as Edmonds has outshined Drake when given the opportunity. He was already ranked ahead of Drake, but the delta is growing between the two in my rankings.
Wide Receiver
McNamara
Brandon Aiyuk - Brandon Aiyuk is in the midst of a strong rookie season. Bordering on the top 24 WR threshold on only Garoppolo seven games, Aiyuk has become a WR1 in San Francisco. Aiyuk was the cheapest of the first-round rookie wide receivers in rookie drafts but is a clear riser and can help fill in some youth at the wide receiver position after several down classes. The rest of the season could be trying, as George Kittle and Jimmy are out for extended stretches, but Aiyuk should see an increased opportunity with Kittle’s missing targets.
Corey Davis - Corey Davis has seen a career resurgence after largely being written off this offseason. Davis is averaging 16.8 points per game across five games this season with 7.8 targets per game. He is also setting a career-high in yards per target (9.5). If Davis can stay healthy, he should post a career-high finish and can become only the fourth first-round wide receiver this century to miss the first three years of his career and then hit for a top 24 finish in his career.
Tefertiller
Odell Beckham – The torn ACL was a disappointing ending for Beckham’s 2020 season. He was just starting to play well and now his 2021 training camp may be in jeopardy. Beckham is under contract with significant guaranteed money so his future in Cleveland is not in doubt.
Tee Higgins – Higgins has emerged as the alpha in the talented Bengals receiving corps. He has been consistent and is building a valuable connection with fellow-rookie Joe Burrow. Higgins deserves to be in the discussion of the top receiver in the 2020 rookie class.
Brandon Aiyuk – Aiyuk was less heralded than the others in this rookie class but landed in a situation where Kyle Shanahan and company know how to utilize his skills. I expect him to overtake Deebo Samuel as the WR1 in San Francisco very soon.
Justin Jefferson – Jefferson has proven to be elite in just a few games. Given his age and production, he has moved way up the rankings, above some of the more proven veterans.
Grant
Amari Cooper – On the drive where Dak Prescott was injured, Ezekiel Elliott scored a rushing touchdown. In the 13 quarters since then, Dallas has just one garbage-time touchdown. It was a pass to Amari Cooper with under 3 minutes to go and Dallas was down 31-3 at the time. Cooper is getting his looks, but Dallas is essentially done this season. With Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb being the young bucks on the team, Cooper could be the odd man out at the end of the season. He’s a ‘Sell High’ candidate now – assuming you can get anything for him.
Tyler Lockett – Lockett continues to be a big upside player for the Seahawks this season and has two games with three receiving touchdowns. He has a high target to reception ratio and has a nose for being in the right place when Russell Wilson needs him. The Seahawks are a team that’s going to go deep into the playoffs and Lockett is going to be a big part of the offense. He’s a ‘must start’ to any fantasy team and a guy who can give you decent points every week and turn in some big games that can put you over the top.
Justin Jefferson – Adam Thielen is the top receiver on the Vikings this season, but Justin Jefferson has turned in some big games as well. In three of the last five games, Jefferson has over 100 yards receiving and two games with more than 160 yards. Despite being the #2 receiver on the Vikings, Jefferson is still posting WR2 numbers this season and shows strong promise as a dynasty receiver. Given he’s just a rookie and rookie wide receivers usually improve during their second and third seasons, there is strong evidence that Jefferson could be a top ten fantasy receiver in the next few seasons.
Tight End
Tefertiller
Harrison Bryant – Bryant has been outstanding with Austin Hooper sidelined. He is the TE1 of the rookie class and should be considered a strong dynasty “buy” for those teams in the rebuilding phase.
Mike Gesicki – The Dolphins given decent money to Adam Shaheen this past week gives pause to his long-term future in Miami. While still a decent fantasy option, Gesicki has not emerged like many hoped.
Grant
Darren Waller – Waller’s skill as a fantasy tight end is well known. But with key injuries to other stud fantasy tight ends, Wallers’ performance has him knocking on the door to be the top fantasy tight end this season. Over the last four games, he has 25 receptions for 214 yards and two touchdowns. He’s a big part of the Las Vegas offense and will continue to post solid fantasy numbers from week to week. While he and Travis Kelce will probably finish #1 and #2 this season, Waller may actually have a better shot because the Raiders have fewer receiving options. Waller is a stud fantasy tight end and someone you can count on from week to week.
T.J. Hockenson – Detroit has a lot of offensive challenges, but tight end isn’t one of them. Hockenson has emerged as their best receiving option, especially in the red zone – and he leads all Detroit receivers this season with 29 receptions and four receiving touchdowns. He’s only in his second season, but he should surpass his rookie totals and could more than double them by the end of this season. Regardless of what happens to Detroit’s offense over the next few years, Hockenson will be a big part of it.
McNamara
Ian Thomas - Ian Thomas showed promise entering the season as a potential successor to Greg Olsen. His production has been nothing short of abysmal. He is amongst the worst tight ends in yards per route run and has only drawn 14 targets this season. Carolina will be in the market for a replacement in the offseason.
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