Cracking FanDuel Week 10

Photo: USA Today Sports

Sunday Morning Update

This week is hard as there are some key decisions to be made. With that said, I will be fading Alvin Kamara and Aaron Jones this week which very well may come back to bite me. The more I look into Terry McLaurin this week against with Alex Smith at the helm. He is turning into a number one wide receiver and is priced too low. He also gets to face former teammate at Ohio State Jeff Okudah.

To get to McLaurin unfortunately means that I will need to move off of Alvin Kamara. It's a tough matchup for Kamara facing a 49ers run defense that has allowed 3.4 yards per carry this year. With Michael Thomas back, Kamara is not as safe as he otherwise might have been.

At the tight end position, T.J. Hockenson is active this week after missing practice earlier his week. With no Kenny Golladay, Hockenson should be in a great spot this week. He has 18 targets over his last two weeks, and is appearing to start to emerge as the elite receiving tight end that the Lions hoped they would get when they took him in the first round.

Finally, James Robinson, while the game script could fall apart and out of his favor, Green Bay is allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing running backs and 4.9 yards per carry. I would love to find a way to get up to James Conner against Cincinnati who just feels a little bit safer, but not sure I want to downgrade any other positions, so Robinson is more of a good player in a good enough matchup, who's salary fits within the lineup.

Cash Lineup

• QB Kyler Murray, ARI, $8,800
• RB Duke Johnson Jr, HOU, $5,800
• RB Mike Davis, CAR, $5,400
• WR Davante Adams, GB, $9,500
• WR Terry McLaurin, WAS, $7,000
• WR Robby Anderson, CAR, $6,400
• TE T.J Hockenson, DET, $6,300
• Flex RB James Robinson, JAX, $7,300
• TD Las Vegas Raiders, $3,500

SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.

• Green Bay (vs Jax) – 31 points
• Arizona (vs BUF) – 29 points
• New Orleans (vs SF) – 29 points
• LA Rams (vs SEA) – 28 points
• Tampa Bay (at CAR) – 28 points

CASH GAME STRATEGY WEEK 10

Overlap

This week is the perfect storm for cash games to have extremely high overlap. Normally too few of injuries and the sites do a good job of pricing to provide diversity in cash game lineups. Too many injuries and it provides overall confusion as far as where to go to save money and the value players get spread across leading to different roster builds.

This week, we have a situation in which there are essentially two key injuries that will force rosters to be constructed in a very similar manner. Duke Johnson Jr and Mike Davis will likely be on 80% and 95% of rosters respectively which means that there will be plenty of money to go around this week.

So, how do you approach it? The thing you have to ask yourself this week is whether you want to go in on the Packers game as there are not many elite options other than that game or you take a stacked approach with good players at each of the rest of the positions. The key this week will be whether to take one or two of the elite players (Adams, Jones, Kamara) along with either Kyler Murray or Josh Allen at quarterback. There are decent mid-range options, but the first thing you need to determine is whether to

For me? As of now, I started with a balanced approach and a complete fade of the Packers players which you can see in sample lineup #2, but my current build went with Davante Adams and Alvin Kamara while moving away from some of the safer options such as Terry Mclaurin and Keenan Allen as painful as it might be. With Jamaal Williams coming back this week, Aaron Jones while he will be popular just seems like a mistake in a game in which the Packers should dominate.

Check back for the Sunday morning update which will be critical this week as the Packers game deals with weather issues.

INJURY UNLOCKS OPPORTUNITY?

Christian McCaffrey will miss this game with a shoulder injury. Both sites really screwed up the pricing of Mike Davis here, and while FanDuel is not as bad as other sites, Davis will essentially be a must play in cash game formats this week.

David Johnson will miss with a concussion this week, which means Duke Johnson Jr will be the primary ball carrier for the Texans. This is one of the more interesting plays on the slate as Duke has been a complimentary ball carrier throughout his career instead of the primary guy. He has two games in his five year career in which he has seen more than 10 carries which is a concern as one of those were last week in which he only had 41 yards against the Jaguars on 16 carries. The price is extremely tempting and he’s in play for cash games, but may be a strong fade in GPP’s this week.

Kenny Golladay will miss with a hip injury. This one is not all that exciting as the Lions target share is inconsistent, but if there was a player that becomes more intriguing it’s Danny Amendola against Jimmy Moreland out of the slot. TJ Hockenson is also questionable this week and if he were able to go, he is in a great spot this week with no Golladay.

Laviska Shenault will miss with a hamstring injury. This doesn’t do much here, but he was a sleeper for some heading into this week. Chris Conley will likely be the beneficiary while DJ Chark’s role shouldn’t change all that much. Based on the weather, this is a situation to avoid.

WEATHER CONCERN

Two issues this week:

Houston at Cleveland: The total in this game has dropped from 55 points down to 46 points as there are going to be 25mph sustained winds. This seems very similar to the game we saw against Las Vegas a few weeks ago where it was a sloppy low scoring game. Passing game is a complete avoid for me this week.

Jacksonville at Green Bay: The total in this game has dropped from 54.5 down to 49. There is rain/snow in the forecast but most of that should be cleared out before game time, but the challenge is the wind here as well as it appears to be 22-25 mph winds. This one makes Davante Adams a tough choice, if there is one receiver that is condition proof it might be Adams, but for cash games that is a hefty price to pay.

KEY CASH CORE

Mike Davis- $5,400

There are going to be plenty of people who try to give themselves reasons why they shouldn’t play Mike Davis, but don’t try to outsmart yourself. Davis should be 100% rostered in cash games on any site that messed up the pricing of the running back. Yes the matchup is not ideal as Tampa Bay has not allowed a 60 yard rusher since Week 11 of the 2019 season, but look at Davis as the total package. Tampa Bay is allowing 7 receptions and 50 yards through the air to opposing running backs and Carolina has already shown that they can utilize this game plan as he caught 8 passes in the teams first meeting of the season. Helping matters is that the Pro Bowl Defensive Tackle Vita Vea is out for Tampa Bay leaving a hole up the middle which could help in goal line situations.

Kyler Murray- $8,200

The last few weeks we have recommended trying to save some salary at the quarterback position and it has not worked as Josh Allen was the expensive quarterback that you likely needed in order to do well in cash games last week. This week, we aren’t over thinking it, it is Kyler Murray who is this year’s Lamar Jackson. Murray has scored a rushing touchdown in every game except one this season and has also ran for 60 yards or more in every game except one. Essentially if he can continue that, that is 12 free points that make it incredibly difficult for a pocket passer to make up. The matchup against Buffalo is a neutral one, Tre’Davious White is still in Buffalo, but the rest of the defense has largely struggled against the pass and with the game being in Arizona there are not weather concerns here.

Robby Anderson- $6,400

We’re changing it up here instead of talking about Keenan Allen every week who is always in our cash game core. Robby Anderson is a player who has positive regression coming, there is a lot of talk about DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel this week, but the reality is that the player that you want to play is Robby Anderson. This is a player who is fourth in the NFL in receiving yards, fifth in targets, third in receptions. The only reason that Anderson is so cheap is the lack of touchdowns. With just one touchdown on the season back in Week 1, it is a concern especially on FanDuel where touchdowns are critical. However, if you look at the Red Zone target share, Anderson has nine targets in the Red Zone for zero touchdowns which is the most targets in the red zone in the league to not have a touchdown for a receiver. If we compare Anderson’s nine targets to his other teammates, Curtis Samuel has six, and DJ Moore has just three.

LINEUPS

SAMPLE ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH- (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 139.1)

• QB Kyler Murray, ARI, $8,800
• RB Duke Johnson Jr, HOU, $5,800
• RB Mike Davis, CAR, $5,400
• WR Davante Adams, GB, $9,500
• WR Diontae Johnson, PIT, $5,700
• WR Robby Anderson, CAR, $6,400
• TE Noah Fant, DEN, $5,700
• Flex RB Alvin Kamara, NO, $9,000
• TD Las Vegas Raiders, $3,500

SAMPLE ROSTER 2 ($60K) – SECONDARY CASH (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 139.5)

• QB Kyler Murray, ARI, $8,800
• RB Duke Johnson Jr, HOU, $5,800
• RB Mike Davis, CAR, $5,400
• WR Terry McLaurin, WAS, $7,000
• WR Keenan Allen, LAC, $7,800
• WR Robby Anderson, CAR, $6,400
• TE Noah Fant, DEN, $5,700
• Flex RB Alvin Kamara, NO, $9,000
• TD Las Vegas Raiders, $3,500

SAMPLE ROSTER 3 ($60K) –BUFFALO/SEATTLE STACK (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 132.8)

• QB Jared Goff, SEA, $7,400
• RB Duke Johnson Jr, HOU, $5,800
• RB Mike Davis, CAR, $5,400
• WR Terry McLaurin, WAS, $7,000
• WR Cooper Kupp, LAR, $7,700
• WR Tyler Lockett, SEA, $7,400
• TE TJ Hockenson, DET, $6,200
• Flex RB Davante Adams, GB, $9,500
• TD Las Vegas Raiders, $3,500

NEW FEATURE: PLAYER POOL

Projected points are static as of Saturday morning and will not be updated throughout the weekend. Green means great cash game play, yellow means should be in consideration in cash game lineups.