BOTTOM 5 PASSING MATCHUPS WEEK 12
To view all of our Week 12 Matchup content, please see the links below:
Top 5 Passing Matchups Week 12
Bottom 5 Passing Matchups Week 12
Top 5 Rushing Matchups Week 12
Bottom 5 Rushing Matchups Week 12
Rushing Matchup Chart Week 12
Passing Matchup Chart Week 12
Baltimore at Pittsburgh
The Ravens pass game, so prolific in 2019, has yet to snap from its funk here in 2020. Lamar Jackson has seen his yardage and touchdown numbers spiking, with sacks and interceptions soaring, and not nearly as much scoring opportunity popping up. Simply put, this is an offense built to run the ball relentlessly, with little regard for a diverse air attack. Tight end Mark Andrews and speedy wideout Marquise Brown dominate Jackson’s attention (43% of targets), and virtually no one else is feared or utilized much. A new, dynamic face or two - and some creative playcalling turns - are needed to truly relaunch this attack.
The Steelers pass defense has certainly benefited from a favorable schedule of quarterbacks, a list that includes the likes of Jeff Driskel, Garrett Gilbert, and Jake Luton. Unsurprisingly, they’re posting dominant numbers against the pass - just 6.7 yards per attempt (second-best) and 230 per game (third). Along the way, though, they’ve stifled relevant guys like Deshaun Watson, Lamar Jackson, and Joe Burrow. This is still the league’s premiere big-play unit, boasting a lethal pass rush (first in pressure rate, first in sacks) and a heat-seeking secondary (second in pass breakups). None of this means individual receivers can’t find success in this matchup - some, like A.J. Brown and Tee Higgins, have. In fact, five opposing wideouts have already crossed the 100-yard mark. But there’s been almost no production elsewhere, with slot men and tight ends held firmly in check all year. The athletic linebackers, underrated slot men, and dynamic safety Minkah Fitzpatrick conspire to make inside routes difficult for all comers. The sledding will be tough for Andrews, who drives this passing game but managed just 32 yards in their first meeting. Unless Brown can create a few notable wins down the field, it’s hard to project much in this matchup.
Tennessee at Indianapolis
The Titans continue to get the most from what they ask of Ryan Tannehill. The 32-year-old will never be confused with Patrick Mahomes II; he doesn’t exactly impose a dominant will upon defenses. What he does, though - leverage Derrick Henry’s ground-game dominance with play-action and option routes - is perfect for the Tennessee offense. When defenses are biting on Henry and the run, there are plenty of opportunities to win down the field. A.J. Brown and Corey Davis have combined to post five 100-yard days, after all. Still, this attack is rarely prolific, depending on flow and matchup to determine the 300-yard days from the 150s. When Tannehill faced this punishing Colts defense in Week 10, he managed just 147 over 27 attempts.
The Colts pass defense, painstakingly rebuilt over the past few offseasons, has developed into one of 2020’s most dominant. Opposing passers are producing just 4.9 adjusted net yards per attempt, which factors in sacks, interceptions, and touchdowns allowed. Only three have managed to top 250 yards in this matchup, which boasts star power on every level. DeForest Buckner, Justin Houston, and Denico Autry lead an imposing pass rush, while Darius Leonard and rookie Bobby Okereke may be the NFL’s best coverage tandem at linebacker. They’re big reasons that running backs and tight ends have produced so little in this matchup. On the back end, Xavier Rhodes has bounced back into the league’s top tier of cornerbacks. Rhodes doesn’t shadow much anymore, but his shutdown ability on the right side has a ripple effect across the secondary. And rookie safety Julian Blackmon has excelled ahead of schedule, proving a difference-maker in centerfield coverage. It’s hard to find spots to attack here; Tannehill will have to be extremely creative with play-action and option routes to find any real success.
LA Rams vs San Francisco
The Rams to this day can’t be entirely sure of what they have in Jared Goff, who continues to flash both great and head-scratching play. What is known, however, is that coach Sean McVay is unafraid of stumbling into an aerial shootout. This high-volume, low-risk attack has proven capable of turning lots of throws (50 per game over the past 3 weeks) into lots of yardage (344) when pressed to. Unfortunately, these 49ers might be the antidote for that formula. When these teams met in Week 6, Goff threw the ball 38 times but produced just 198 yards. Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp are savvy receivers, tailor-made for Goff’s game, but turned 19 targets into just 40 yards and a touchdown that day.
The 49ers pass defense, racked by injuries throughout the season, has indeed run hot-and-cold by the numbers. They’ve been brutalized a few times, particularly by Ryan Fitzpatrick (Week 5) and Aaron Rodgers (Week 9), who combined to pile up 655 yards and 7 touchdowns. But two slip-ups can certainly be forgiven when the rest of the body of work is so impressive. In their other eight outings, they’ve given up just 193 a game and 10 scores. There’s enough depth up front for the pass rush to survive the losses of Nick Bosa and Dee Ford - they sit seventh league-wide in pressure rate despite missing both for most of the year. And the secondary is anchored by two playmaking stars who paper over some of the personnel issues. Jason Verrett has long been one of football’s best cornerbacks when not on injured reserve, and he’s dominated over his eight starts in San Francisco. Behind him, safety Jimmie Ward looms as a playmaking hybrid, bouncing from the slot to centerfield and back. Great receivers have been able to produce in this matchup - Davante Adams, DeAndre Hopkins, DK Metcalf, for instance. But it’s been encouraging to see them shut down virtually everyone else.
Dallas vs Washington
The Cowboys passing game is predictably treading water without Dak Prescott. Andy Dalton looked at least competent last Sunday, throwing red zone three touchdowns in the upset of the Vikings. He’s a solid caretaker, delivering the ball to one of the league’s most dynamic receiver groups. And on Sunday, Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb traded off impressive plays and catches, proving their fantasy value didn’t necessarily go on injured reserve when Prescott did. Still, everyone’s upside takes a hit with Dalton under center. There isn’t nearly the volume, deep-ball, or touchdown opportunity here to project big things with any confidence. Dalton’s 266 yards from Week 6 look like the week-to-week ceiling now.
The Football Team sits at 3-7, and opponents don’t have to throw too often in this matchup (just 31 times a game). But they’re doing a fine job limiting their opponents’ efficiency, particularly by shutting down the long ball. Cornerbacks Kendall Fuller and Ronald Darby have been fantastic on the outside, routinely keeping game-breaking receivers firmly in check. The Football Team has yet to allow a 100-yard wideout, and much of the credit goes to those two, who have led the charge against names like DeAndre Hopkins, Odell Beckham Jr, Robert Woods - and this very Cowboys group. Back in Week 7, Cooper and Lamb combined for just 80 yards, with none come from Lamb. There’s also a sneaky pass rush in play here, leading the entire league in sack rate (10.4% of dropbacks). The young core of Chase Young, Montez Sweat, and Jonathan Allen has ascended together here in 2020, combining for 11.5 sacks and 24 quarterback hits. All told, this unit isn’t particularly dominant yet - that’s still in the works. But it’s definitely dynamic enough to make life difficult for a shellshocked unit like these Cowboys.
Chicago at Green Bay
The Bears pass game continues to trudge along, plagued by inconsistency and a lack of better options. They’ve already shuffled quarterbacks, from the scattershot Mitchell Trubisky to a former Super Bowl MVP in Nick Foles - albeit one who seems to have lost all that 2018 magic. It’s unclear, though, whether coach Matt Nagy can stomach another week of Foles’ ineffective underthrows and three-and-outs. Perhaps Foles’ hip injury will give Nagy an out to switch back to Trubisky, who at least brings some instinct and athleticism to the huddle. Either way, though, this attack simply isn’t one that should excite fantasy players. Trubisky has generated a pitiful 6.7 yards per attempt as a pro, and aside from Allen Robinson, there’s very little dynamism to throw to. The Bears’ pass-game ceiling is barely a blip on the radar and certainly not worth chasing far.
The Packers continue to field an underrated pass defense from the “bend, don’t break” school. This isn’t a perfect unit by any stretch - they’ve been exposed several times, with 5 of their 10 opponents topping 280 yards through the air. But efficiency has been key: most importantly, the sometimes-dominant play of the cornerbacks has held most top wideouts in check. Jaire Alexander has emerged as an All-Pro frontrunner, following receivers around the field on a shutdown level. He’s been the driving force in limiting the likes of Mike Evans (10 yards on 2 targets), Will Fuller (35 on 6), and Adam Thielen (27 on 4) in recent matchups. He and the newly-healthy Kevin King are able to take advantage of strong downfield support from safeties Adrian Amos and Darnell Savage. It’s already tough to envision big production from the Bears and their massive, quarterback-shaped hole, regardless of matchup. If Alexander spends Sunday night shadowing Robinson across the formation, it will leave them without reason to expect anything attractive.
