Introduction
Before diving into the nitty-gritty of this week's bets, it is important to establish a few key concepts that will come up repeatedly throughout the season. First and foremost, all bets will be recommended with an accompanying unit amount, typically somewhere between 0.5 and 2.0 units. One unit should equate to approximately one-percent of your allotted bankroll that you use for wagering across various sports. Arguably the most important aspect of being a winning sports bettor is proper bankroll management. By wagering in accordance with the recommended unit amounts-- totaling to a small percentage of your bankroll each week- this will ensure that you are never risking more than you can afford to lose. Additionally, the sports betting market is just that, a market. Markets typically tend towards efficiency, especially when the market price- or betting line in this case- is established by many players risking large sums of money to establish the price. Historically, the most accurate estimate of what the correct price, or most accurate pregame projection of a game, is determined by the closing line of the game. The betting limits for games increase as more information, in the form of wagers, becomes available to bookmakers later in the week. Subsequently, the betting line movements leading up to kickoff ultimately move the betting line into place, settling at the most efficient public indicator of what the price should be at kickoff. Using the closing line, calculating closing line value becomes a fantastic measurement of a sound process in sports betting. Beating the closing line, or betting on a game at a better number than the game closes at, is extremely difficult, but also typically leads to sustainable long-term success.
Be sure to follow me on Twitter @StillZam, as I will tweet updates whenever an edit is made to this article or any other piece that I write. As lines move leading up to kickoff this weekend, if value reveals itself elsewhere in the league, it will be analyzed below
Results
- Kansas City Chiefs -3 (-117), PUSH 0 units
- Buffalo Bills -5.5 (-110), WIN +1.0 unit
Week 15 profit/loss: +1.0 unit
Year-to-date profit/loss: -9.65 units
Last week was a much-needed rebound for the Beating the Odds betting card, as went 1-0-1 for one unit of profit thanks to an impressive Saturday afternoon performance over the Denver Broncos. The Bills were a dominant force that appears prepared to compete for a Super Bowl title in a few months. In their road trip to the mile-high city, Buffalo's well-rounded arsenal of offensive weapons was on full display as Josh Allen threw for two scores and ran for two more, while both Zach Moss and Devin Singletary ran for at least 68 yards on over 6.2 yards-per-carry. Then, on the outside, the Bills registered two 100-yard receivers in one game for the first time this season. Then, late on Sunday afternoon, it was a familiar tale with the Kansas City Chiefs for Beating the Odds bettors. The Chiefs were comfortably covering the spread for the majority of the game until the Saints came back and pulled within three points on a largely-meaningless score in the final minutes of the game. Fortunately, given the three-point spread on this game, this late score resulted in a push, not a loss, saving us 1.70 units on the afternoon. Nonetheless, the winning weekend was welcomed with open arms, and we will attempt to make it back-to-back profitable weekends here with this pair of plays.
As always, best of luck to everyone in all of their fantasy football and sports betting ventures this weekend, and always ensure that you are never wagering more than you can afford to lose.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS
Pick: Arizona Cardinals -4.5 (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook | risk 1.65 units to win 1.5 units
The San Francisco 49ers were officially eliminated from playoff contention last weekend after their 33-41 loss at the hands of the Dallas Cowboys. Conversely, the Arizona Cardinals solidified themselves as the seven-seed in the NFC as it stands with their victory over the Philadelphia Eagles. Last weekend is a perfect encapsulation of how each team is trending in the final weeks of the 2020 season. We will capitalize on these diverging teams with a 1.65-unit wager on the Arizona Cardinals to cover the 4.5-point spread at home.
Late in their Week 15 matchup against the Cowboys, the San Francisco 49ers lost their replacement starting quarterback, Nick Mullens, to an elbow injury. In his place, C.J. Beathard is the team's new starting quarterback by virtue of being the last healthy signal-caller in the building. In 10 career starts, Beathard sports a 1-9 record to go along with only 6.2 adjusted-yards-per-attempt, a mark that would rank 28th amongst starting quarterbacks this season. In recent weeks, the 49ers' defensive results have been equally disappointing, as they have allowed over 30 points-per-game across their last 7 games. This unit has been riddled by injuries this season. Now, with their fate sealed as a non-contender, veteran options (aside from George Kittle) that have persevered through injuries may opt not to play and rest up and not risk further injury in the final weeks of the season. Overall, there is little reason to believe that the San Francisco 49ers are prepared to compete with a division rival fighting for their playoff lives.
For the Arizona Cardinals, Kyler Murray seems to be rounding back into form recently after an apparent shoulder injury limited his production. From weeks 11 through 14, Kyler Murray ran the ball just two times in the red-zone while his average-depth-of-target dropped below 6.5 yards-per-attempt. In Week 15, these metrics returned to his standard levels, with three red-zone rushes against the Eagles and an average-depth-of-target over 9.7 yards. Additionally, after a midseason slump, DeAndre Hopkins has returned to his old ways as one of the league's most productive pass-catchers with back-to-back games with at least 9 catches for 135 yards. On the whole, the Cardinals' high-flying aerial attack is firing on all cylinders right now as a top-10 unit in the NFL, and they should have little trouble scoring the football this weekend inside the friendly confines of State Farm Stadium's dome. Defensively, Haason Reddick is finally providing the requisite return on investment for the first-round pick the Cardinals spent on him in 2016. Initially, the Cardinals tried to move him to an inside linebacker position, where he struggled mightily. This year, they have returned him to his original position, rushing the passer off the edge, and he has been stellar. Reddick was the NFL's Defensive Player of the Week two weeks ago when he tallied a whopping five sacks against the New York Giants. Then, at the back end of the defense, Budda Baker was rightfully voted to the Pro Bowl this season after another impressive campaign, helping to shore up any potential leaks in a secondary littered with players that are either inexperienced or well over the hump in the latter stages of their respective careers.
In total, the Cardinals' offense is one of the best in the league, and their improving health should spell trouble for the San Francisco 49ers. Opposite them, the San Francisco 49ers are onto their third-string quarterback this season, and Arizona's defense is a top-third defense in the NFL. This matchup projects as nearly a seven-point game, leading us to a 1.65-unit wager on the Arizona Cardinals to cover the 4.5-point spread at FanDuel Sportsbook.
DENVER BRONCOS @ LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
Pick: Denver Broncos +3.5 (-117) at DraftKings Sportsbook | risk 1.17 units to win 1.0 unit
The market has overreacted to recent results on both sides of the football in this AFC West matchup. Last weekend, the Denver Broncos were handed a 48-19 beat-down by the Buffalo Bills while the Los Angeles Chargers went into Las Vegas and came away with an overtime victory over the Las Vegas Raiders. In this clash between a pair of head coaches firmly planted on the hot seat, it should be an old-fashioned battle betwixt rivals that stays close throughout.
The Denver Broncos, aside from their no-show last Saturday afternoon, have been impressive in recent weeks, covering the spread in three straight non-Kendall-Hinton games. The Broncos' uninspiring win/loss record in recent weeks has triggered an overreaction by the masses, discounting the upside the team possesses. Led by Vig Fangio, one of the true defensive masterminds in the league, Denver sports an above-average defensive unit. On the year, the Broncos rank 9th in the league against the pass, according to DVOA allowed, which is critical to containing Los Angeles' offense. The Chargers do not have a single player that averages over 60 rushing-yards-per-game this season, while Justin Herbert averages nearly 300 passing-yards-per-game. However, on the outside, Keenan Allen, who was limited to just 24 snaps last week, is questionable for this matchup. Should he miss this game, Los Angeles' offensive projections tumble, as he is an irreplaceable piece of their passing attack. Also, at tight end, Hunter Henry landed on the Reserve/COVID-19 list on Thursday afternoon. Henry ranks second on the team in targets this season, and the drop off in receiving talent from him to Donald Parham is substantial. Overall, Denver's defense projects to be able to contain Los Angeles' depleted offense, which is centered around a passing attack that could be missing a few key contributors.
On the offensive side of the football, the Denver Broncos' 2020 season has been one to forget, as they average just under 20 points-per-game. There is very little reason to believe they will right the ship here with the current personnel and under this leadership. Drew Lock's sophomore season has been dismal, as he has proven entirely incapable of connecting with his dynamic playmakers on the outside. Lock's 57.7 completion percentage ranks second-to-last in the NFL amongst qualified passers. Fortunately, the Los Angeles Chargers' defense is nothing to fear, as they rank 28th in the NFL in points-per-game allowed and 26th in weighted DVOA allowed. There is little to be excited about when the Denver Broncos have the ball this weekend, as it will be a battle between a pair of hapless units with one eye on the offseason and the imminent changes that are in store for each team.
Given the Denver Broncos' defensive strength, they should contain the Los Angeles Chargers' depleted and one-dimensional offense.
However, offensively, they are a complete mess that is unlikely to light up the scoreboard against even the league's worst defenses, barring a ceiling performance from quarterback Drew Lock. This matchup projects as approximately a 1-point game in favor of the Chargers, leading us to a 1.1-unit wager on the Broncos to cover the 3.5 point spread.