Introduction
Before diving into the nitty-gritty of this week's bets, it is important to establish a few key concepts that will come up repeatedly throughout the season. First and foremost, all bets will be recommended with an accompanying unit amount, typically somewhere between 0.5 and 2.0 units. One unit should equate to approximately one-percent of your allotted bankroll that you use for wagering across various sports. Arguably the most important aspect of being a winning sports bettor is proper bankroll management. By wagering in accordance with the recommended unit amounts-- totaling to a small percentage of your bankroll each week- this will ensure that you are never risking more than you can afford to lose. Additionally, the sports betting market is just that, a market. Markets typically tend towards efficiency, especially when the market price- or betting line in this case- is established by many players risking large sums of money to establish the price. Historically, the most accurate estimate of what the correct price, or most accurate pregame projection of a game, is determined by the closing line of the game. The betting limits for games increase as more information, in the form of wagers, becomes available to bookmakers later in the week. Subsequently, the betting line movements leading up to kickoff ultimately move the betting line into place, settling at the most efficient public indicator of what the price should be at kickoff. Using the closing line, calculating closing line value becomes a fantastic measurement of a sound process in sports betting. Beating the closing line, or betting on a game at a better number than the game closes at, is extremely difficult, but also typically leads to sustainable long-term success.
One hypothetical example of beating the closing line would be betting on the Kansas City Chiefs at -4 on Friday afternoon when the line closes at -5.5. Here, the most efficient number is deemed to be -5.5, leaving the bettor with 1.5 points of closing value. Another hypothetical example, conversely, would be betting on the Carolina Panthers at +7 on Friday afternoon when the line closes at +4 at kickoff. In this example, there would be 3 points of closing line value for the wager on Carolina. As previously stated, consistently registering bets with positive closing line value is a great signal of a bettor who should find success in the future. This season, closing line value (CLV) will be tracked for all recommended wagers, along with the win-loss and profit-loss totals.
Results
- Houston Texans -6.5 (-112), LOSS -1.36 units
- Minnesota Vikings -4.5 (-110), WIN +1.10 units
Week Profit: -0.26 units
Total Profit: -5.575 units
Week 9 Review
Just when it appeared that the Beating the Odds betting card was going to record its first undefeated week of the season, disaster struck. In Jacksonville, the Houston Texans jumped out to an early and commanding lead over the Jaguars. As expected, Houston's offense moved the ball down the field with relative ease, but an untimely fumble and the inability to convert in the red zone limited the Texans to 27 points on the afternoon. On Jacksonville's side of the football, through three quarters, all was going according to plan. Jake Luton appeared to be a game manager unable to truly make a difference and put the team over-the-top and mount scoring drives. Unfortunately, some late-game heroics from the rookie quarterback led to an 80-yard touchdown drive with the game on the line to bring the Jaguars within 2 points, covering the spread and ruining a potential 2-0 afternoon for us. Fortunately, all was not lost, as even though Matthew Stafford was able to suit up for the Detroit Lions, a lost week of practice for the quarterback proved to be a fatal flaw for the team's offense. Without his number-one receiving threat, Stafford appeared lost in the pocket, where he threw a pair of interceptions in the red zone. Opposite Stafford, the Vikings' offense put on a clinic in complementary football. Dalvin Cook gashed the Lions' defense for over 200 yards and 2 scores while Kirk Cousins threw for 220 yards and 3 touchdowns himself. In this clash between NFC North rivals, the Vikings handled business to the tune of a 14-point victory, which easily covered the spread and helped salvage the afternoon. Now, let's dive into what will hopefully be the first 2-0 betting card in the brief history of Beating the Odds. As always, please gamble responsibly, never risk more than you can afford to lose, and remember to have fun with it, as that is what this is all about.
The Picks
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-3) @ NEW YORK GIANTS
PICK: PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -3, RISK 1.16 UNITS TO WIN 1 UNIT
As uncomfortable as it may be, this Week 10 clash between the 3-4-1 Philadelphia Eagles and the 2-7 New York Giants could be a pivotal moment that serves to determine who goes on to represent the NFC East in the playoffs this season. Philadelphia already has a leg up on the competition, as they are 1.5-games up on the rest of the division, but a Week 10 victory over the Giants could put an unofficial end to whatever hopes of making the playoffs that New York had. This weekend, all signs point to that unofficial end coming and cementing the Giants in the race for the number-one draft pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.
The Philadelphia Eagles have been largely unimpressive this season. Early on, underwhelming performances against the Washington Football Team, Los Angeles Rams, and Cincinnati Bengals spelled trouble in the City of Brotherly Love. Since that 0-2-1 start, Philadelphia has definitively improved, both on offense and defense, but they remain far from impressive. One specific bright spot for this team is the improving health of their receiving corps. The Eagles lost their first-round selection in the 2020 NFL Draft, Jalen Reagor, after Week 1 to a thumb injury. Reagor returned to action two weeks ago against the Dallas Cowboys. His inclusion in this passing attack provides a much-needed boost to the team, as his pedigree and pass-catching talent far exceeds that of the players Philadelphia attempted to replace him with when he was sidelined. Carson Wentz's early-season struggles can largely be attributed to the understaffed receiving corps surrounding him throughout the early part of the season. At one point, the only two Week 1 starters available on Philadelphia's offense were Carson Wentz and Jason Kelce, the team's starting center. Although he underperformed in Week 8 against the Cowboys, Wentz appears to be poised for a strong second half of the season thanks to the emergence of Travis Fulgham and the return of play-makers like Jalen Reagor and Dallas Goedert. Additionally, Philadelphia's Week 9 bye preceding this matchup provides their coaching staff with an additional week to prepare for a critical NFC East showdown. In recent weeks, a major critique of the Eagles has been their lack of schematic creativity on offense, and this added week for Doug Pederson should bode well for Philadelphia's scoring offense.
Through nine weeks of a wild 2020 season, one thing has made itself abundantly clear: the New York Giants are a bottom-tier team in the NFL. The Giants entered the season with very modest expectations, as the betting market had them pegged for only six wins on the year, but they have fallen short of even the most bearish projections. New York's dreadful combination of a sub-par coaching staff to go along with their uninspiring collection of on-field talent has led to horrific results nine games into the Joe Judge era. New York's offense, led by Daniel Jones, ranks amongst the league's worst scoring attacks. The Giants rank second-worst in the NFL in both points and yards-per-game this year, and there is little reason to believe that improvement is on the horizon. Jones, now in his second season as New York's starting quarterback, is arguably the worst non-injury-replacement starter in the NFL. His struggles protecting the football have plagued him throughout his short career, as he leads the NFL in turnovers since he took over under-center for Eli Manning midway through the 2019 season. Jones' lack of arm-talent and inability to properly process what defenses are throwing at him render the team's talented receiving corps utterly useless. Although Philadelphia's defense does not instill fear in the heart of their opponents, with Jones at the helm, the Giants are unlikely to move the ball down the field and put points on the board at a rate that would put them ahead of the curve in this all-important divisional matchup.
While both quarterbacks in this matchup have generally underperformed this season, Carson Wentz appears to be trending upwards, thanks to an improving offensive line and receiving corps. Opposite him, Daniel Jones is repeatedly proving to not be the New York Giants' long-term answer at the quarterback position. According to my projections, the Eagles should be approximately 5.5-point favorites this weekend. Expect the Eagles to win this game handily, and given the betting line, we will have a 1.16-unit wager on the Eagles to cover the 3-point spread at DraftKings Sportsbook, that will net 1.0 units if they cover.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS (-1.5)
PICK: MIAMI DOLPHINS -1.5, RISK 1.06 UNITS TO WIN 1.0 UNIT
In a twist that very few people saw coming before the season, this Week 10 clash between the Los Angeles Chargers and Miami Dolphins features one team in the thick of the playoff hunt, and it isn't the Los Angeles Chargers. Through eight games, the Miami Dolphins, who are now led by rookie Tua Tagovailoa, sport a 5-3 record that would grant them the seventh playoff spot in the AFC if the season ended today.
Miami's rapid turnaround, transitioning from the worst team in the AFC East to a team contending for a spot in the playoffs in just one year, has been astounding. Last season, the Dolphins were the obvious basement-dwellers within their division, and there was no clear plan of attack for the team at the most important position in football: quarterback. This season, the Dolphins started with Ryan Fitzpatrick, a perennial overperformer, under-center, and made the change to Tua Tagovailoa, a highly-touted rookie, over the team's bye week. Since Tagovailoa took over, the Dolphins are 2-0 with a pair of victories over NFC West playoff contenders. Although the wins were not a direct result of Tagovailoa's play, his flashes of brilliance have quickly reminded people why he entered his final collegiate season as the front-runner to be the number-one overall selection in the 2020 NFL Draft. Tagovailoa is readily equipped with numerous play-makers throughout the offense, including DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki. While the change from Fitzpatrick to Tagovailoa was a highly-scrutinized move, the switch undeniably raises the upper-limit of this offense's potential. Through two games, it also appears that this swap does not lower the offense's floor of production, which is often the case with a rookie quarterback. Overall, Miami's offense is an above-average group. Now, with Tagovailoa, one of the most prolific passers in college football history, leading the huddle, there is added room for improvement as well. Also, the Dolphins' defense certainly holds up its end of the bargain, as they are constantly wreaking havoc on opposing passers and generating turnovers. The Dolphins rank fourth in the NFL in takeaways thanks to the creativity and aggression of their play-calling. This combination of a capable offense and opportunistic defense has led the Dolphins to an impressive +61 point differential through 8 games, the 4th-best mark in the league.
Tua Tagovailoa will not be the only budding star under-center in this matchup, as Justin Herbert, who was selected just one pick after Tagovailoa in the 2020 NFL Draft, has impressed for the Los Angeles Chargers this season. Through eight games, Herbert's rookie campaign has exceeded all expectations. The Chargers' passing attack is the strongest aspect of their offense. A driving force behind their passing game is that Herbert's chemistry with Keenan Allen has developed quicker than anyone imagined it would. The duo has connected at least seven times in every game that both players have been healthy enough to play from start-to-finish. Elsewhere, an unfortunate hamstring injury to Austin Ekeler, the team's number-one running back who also plays a significant role in the passing game, has limited the number of game-breaking play-makers at Herbert's disposal. Opposing defenses appear content to allow Allen to eat up yardage in small chunks as long as they can contain the rest of the passing game and limit long passes, which Herbert throws exceptionally well. On the other side of the football, Los Angeles' defense is a perfectly average unit, as they rank 16th in the league in total DVOA allowed. On the whole, the Chargers' 2-6 record is misleading, as a handful of bad bounces and some unfortunate luck has skewed their record for the worse—however, Los Angeles rates, at best, as a league-average team overall. This weekend, neither the Chargers' offense nor defense stand to gain a significant advantage over the Dolphins, which could spell trouble for Anthony Lynn's side.
Expect the Miami Dolphins competent and improving offense to combine with a schematically complex defense and prevail over the Los Angeles Chargers at home in Week 10. This matchup projects as approximately a 3.5-point game in favor of the Miami Dolphins. At the current betting line of -1.5 (-106), a 1.06-unit wager on the Dolphins to net 1.0-unit in a victory is in store.
Summary of Picks
- Philadelphia Eagles -3 (-116) risk 1.16 units to win 1.0 unit
- Miami Dolphins -3.5 (-106), risk 1.06 units to win 1.0 unit
As always, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter with any questions, comments, concerns, or feedback regarding this article and how I can improve it moving forward