Introduction
Before diving into the nitty-gritty of this week's bets, it is important to establish a few key concepts that will come up repeatedly throughout the season. First and foremost, all bets will be recommended with an accompanying unit amount, typically somewhere between 0.5 and 2.0 units. One unit should equate to approximately one-percent of your allotted bankroll that you use for wagering across various sports. Arguably the most important aspect of being a winning sports bettor is proper bankroll management. By wagering in accordance with the recommended unit amounts-- totaling to a small percentage of your bankroll each week- this will ensure that you are never risking more than you can afford to lose. Additionally, the sports betting market is just that, a market. Markets typically tend towards efficiency, especially when the market price- or betting line in this case- is established by many players risking large sums of money to establish the price. Historically, the most accurate estimate of what the correct price, or most accurate pregame projection of a game, is determined by the closing line of the game. The betting limits for games increase as more information, in the form of wagers, becomes available to bookmakers later in the week. Subsequently, the betting line movements leading up to kickoff ultimately move the betting line into place, settling at the most efficient public indicator of what the price should be at kickoff. Using the closing line, calculating closing line value becomes a fantastic measurement of a sound process in sports betting. Beating the closing line, or betting on a game at a better number than the game closes at, is extremely difficult, but also typically leads to sustainable long-term success.
One hypothetical example of beating the closing line would be betting on the Kansas City Chiefs at -4 on Friday afternoon when the line closes at -5.5. Here, the most efficient number is deemed to be -5.5, leaving the bettor with 1.5 points of closing value. Another hypothetical example, conversely, would be betting on the Carolina Panthers at +7 on Friday afternoon when the line closes at +4 at kickoff. In this example, there would be 3 points of closing line value for the wager on Carolina. As previously stated, consistently registering bets with positive closing line value is a great signal of a bettor who should find success in the future. This season, closing line value (CLV) will be tracked for all recommended wagers, along with the win-loss and profit-loss totals.
Results
Week 6 review
- Minnesota Vikings -4.5 (-105): LOSS, -1.58 units
- Carolina Panthers -1.5 (-105): LOSS, -1.05 units
Week Profit: -2.63 units
Total Profit: -5.72 units
Week 6 was a masterclass in disaster for Beating the Odds, as both plays came up short and never seemed to have a chance of winning. In Carolina's matchup with the Chicago Bears, Nick Foles picked apart the Panthers' secondary all afternoon, making simple and easy throws that practically any quarterback in the league could make. Opposite Foles, Teddy Bridgewater has his worst outing yet in a Carolina uniform. Carolina's quick-hitting passing attack was stifled from the beginning, leading Bridgewater to hold the football and get uncomfortable in the pocket while Chicago's pass-rush came bearing down on him. It was effectively Freaky Friday in Soldier Field last weekend, as the Bears' offense took a page out of the Panthers' playbook and simplified their passing attack to get their playmakers the ball on high-percentage throws in space, while Carolina's offense looked uncomfortable and out-of-rhythm from the start, much like Chicago's did throughout the first five weeks of the season. Then, in Minnesota, the Vikings came out completely flat and played like the absolute worst versions of themselves that we have seen all season. There really is not much to say about this showing, other than the fact that Kirk Cousins' struggles against one of the league's worst defenses are extremely concerning, and the Vikings' inability to contain a mediocre passing attack should have fans donning the purple and gold wondering if this is a lost season where the focus should be on positioning the team for an opportunity to draft their quarterback-of-the-future in next Spring's draft.
Now, let's get into this weekend's plays, of which there are two. As always please ensure you are never gambling more than you can afford to lose, and try to have as much fun as possible along the way.
CLEVELAND BROWNS (-3.5, -102) @ CINCINNATI BENGALS
Pick: Cleveland Browns -3.5 (-102), risk 1.02 units to win 1.0 unit
This weekend, the Cleveland Browns look to bounce back from the beatdown the Pittsburgh Steelers handed them last weekend. Through six games, the Browns are a difficult team to pin-down. Cleveland's resume currently features a trio of victories over sub-.500 teams, a victory over the Indianapolis Colts, and a pair of 30-point losses to divisional rivals. One of their early-season wins came against the Cincinnati Bengals, who have struggled all season against non-Jaguars opponents. The Bengals' deficiencies applying pressure on opposing quarterbacks and containing opposing rushing attacks perfectly encapsulate their shortcomings in their front-seven. Unfortunately for Bengals fans, these two weaknesses are the two most critical features of a defense primed to shut down Cleveland's offense. Defending the pass, it is always essential to disrupt the pocket and make a quarterback uncomfortable, especially against a jittery quarterback like Baker Mayfield that frequently bails from the pocket due to fear of the pass-rush bearing down on him. The Cincinnati Bengals rank dead-last in the league in pressure %, applying pressure on opposing passers on just 16.9-percent of their opponent's dropbacks this season. A clean pocket for Baker Mayfield could spell trouble for Cincinnati's defense, especially considering the weapons Cleveland's offense features on the outside, as both Odell Beckham, Jr. and Jarvis Landry rank amongst the league's best route-runners. On the ground, Cleveland's rushing attack is one of the league's best. Unsurprisingly, Kevin Stefanski's run-heavy play-calling tendencies have traveled with him from Minnesota to Cleveland. Offensively, the Browns lead the NFL in total rushing yards while gaining 5.3 yards-per-carry, the third-best mark in the league. Beyond the box score, Cleveland also ranks seventh in the NFL in rushing DVOA. Conversely, the Bengals' numbers against the run rank amongst the league's worst teams, as they are sixth-worst in the league in total rushing yards allowed, fourth-worst in yards-per-carry allowed, and tenth-worst in rushing DVOA allowed. Expect Cleveland to dominate this game in the trenches, giving their offense ample opportunity to put points on the board and apply pressure on Cincinnati's young offense to keep pace.
Offensively, the Cincinnati Bengals' long-term future looks bright, but there are still some growing pains this unit is primed to experience in the immediate future. Joe Burrow, the team's number-one overall draft pick from this spring, has the makings of a starting quarterback in this league for a long time, but for now, he has an uphill battle ahead of himself. Burrow's athleticism and ability to get the ball out of his hands quickly when making the proper reads have mitigated the impacts of a patchwork offensive line, but the efficiency numbers leave much to be desired. The Bengals rank 26th in the league in passing DVOA while Burrow ranks 27th amongst qualified quarterbacks in net-yards-per-attempt. Additionally, on the ground, the Bengals field one of the league's worst rushing attacks. The team's most efficient runner with over 10 carries on the season has gained just 3.7 yards-per-carry so far in 2020. Cincinnati's leading rusher in each game has only surpassed 70 yards once this season. Overall, the Bengals' rushing attack has provided little-to-no support for their young quarterback in 2020, and Cleveland's defensive front, led by Myles Garrett, should have a field day rushing the passer in Week 7.
In sum, the Browns should take care of business against an inferior opponent once again this weekend, where the true line for this AFC North matchup sits at around 5.2 points. Given the betting market's line of -3.5 points at FanDuel Sportsbook, we will have a 1.02 unit wager backing the Browns to net 1.0 unit if they cover the spread.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS | TOTAL: 55.5
Pick: Over 55.5 (-115), risk 1.15 units to win 1.0 unit.
At first glance, taking the over on a game with such a high total may seem like a suspect decision. However, after peeling back the layers to these respective teams' scoring metrics, this NFC West matchup is primed to turn into a Sunday night shootout. Earlier this week, the NFL flexed this game into the Sunday Night Football timeslot, rescheduling it from its previously scheduled start time of 4:25 PM ET.
The Arizona Cardinals' offense, now in year-two of Kliff Kingsbury's tenure, is rounding into form in 2020. The Cardinals have scored at least 30 points in half of their games thus far this season, and Kyler Murray seems far more comfortable leading this unit. Murray has finally begun to utilize his incredible athleticism in his second season, frequently scrambling from the pocket and making plays with his legs, not unlike what he did at Oklahoma when he won the Heisman Trophy. Additionally, the offseason acquisition of DeAndre Hopkins, one of the NFL's most prolific pass-catchers, has given Murray an unreal safety blanket to pepper with targets when in a bind. Hopkins currently leads the NFL in receptions and receiving yards, although he has found the endzone just twice in an Arizona jersey. Given Nuk's market share of both targets and air yards within this offense, we should not expect Hopkins' lackluster touchdown numbers to last much longer. Overall, Arizona's offense, which operates at one of the fastest paces in the league, is poised to light up the scoreboard this weekend, especially against Seattle's pedestrian defense. For the Seahawks, the story of their 2020 campaign has been fairly straightforward: Russell Wilson is airing the ball out early and often, leading to gaudy offensive stats across the board. However, the team's 26th-ranked defense is bleeding points, leading to frequent shootouts and one-score victories. Seattle's pass-happy offense frequently forces their opponents' hand into running an up-tempo offense themselves in an attempt to keep pace in the game. The Seahawks' opponents have played at the fastest rate of any team in the league, and the Arizona Cardinals will be no stranger to pushing the tempo and maximizing their offensive opportunities this weekend. This offense and defense pairing plays right into Arizona's hands, and I have no fear that they will hold up their end of the bargain to get this game over the 55.5-point total.
As mentioned, Seattle's offense this season is unrecognizable from previous iterations of this same unit. In 2020, the Seahawks are finally putting the ball in the hands of their MVP-caliber quarterback and asking him to win them games, rather than taking the ball out of his hands and telling him to not lose them games. Through six weeks, Seattle's offense is by far the most pass-happy offense when accounting for each play's context and situation. Seattle has thrown the ball over 10-percent more than the average team would be expected to, and the results have been incredible. Russell Wilson ranks first in the NFL in adjusted-net-yards-per-attempt, a metric that accounts for touchdowns, interceptions, and yardage per pass attempt, and the Seahawks lead the NFL in points-per-game. Overall, this offense is one of the league's most dangerous and threatening units, and this weekend they match up against an overrated Arizona defense. Through six weeks, the Cardinals' defense ranks amongst the league's best defenses in points-per-game allowed. However, this metric is artificially boosted by an exceptionally-soft early-season schedule that has featured matchups against Dwayne Haskins, Joe Flacco, and Andy Dalton. Across those three matchups, the Cardinals allowed just under 12 points-per-game. In the three games against non-backup quarterbacks, the Cardinals allowed just under 26 points-per-game. This weekend's matchup against Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks' aerial attack will be the toughest test Arizona's young defense, which will be playing in its second game without Chandler Jones (and it's first against a non-backup quarterback,) has faced yet this season. Expect no shortage of scoring chances for Seattle's top-tier offense this weekend in a game that projects to go well over the current total of 55.5 points.
This matchup between two of the top teams in the NFC West should be one of the most entertaining games of the weekend. Fans can expect to be treated to a Sunday Night Football thriller that lights up the scoreboard. By my estimation, this game projects to total approximately 58 points between the two teams, leading us to a 1.15 unit wager on over 55.5 points being scored in this matchup, which will net 1.0 units of profit in a victory.
Summary of Picks
- Cleveland Browns -3.5 (-102), risk 1.02 units to win 1.0 unit
- Seattle Seahawks/Arizona Cardinals o55.5 points (-115), risk 1.15 units to win 1.0 unit
As always, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter with any questions, comments, concerns, or feedback regarding this article and how I can improve it moving forward