Introduction
Before diving into the nitty-gritty of this week's bets, it is important to establish a few key concepts that will come up repeatedly throughout the season. First and foremost, all bets will be recommended with an accompanying unit amount, typically somewhere between 0.5 and 2.0 units. One unit should equate to approximately one-percent of your allotted bankroll that you use for wagering across various sports. Arguably the most important aspect of being a winning sports bettor is proper bankroll management. By wagering in accordance with the recommended unit amounts-- totaling to a small percentage of your bankroll each week- this will ensure that you are never risking more than you can afford to lose. Additionally, the sports betting market is just that, a market. Markets typically tend towards efficiency, especially when the market price- or betting line in this case- is established by many players risking large sums of money to establish the price. Historically, the most accurate estimate of what the true price, or most accurate pregame projection of a game, is determined by the closing line of the game. The betting limits for games increase as more information, in the form of wagers, becomes available to bookmakers later in the week. Subsequently, the betting line movements leading up to kickoff ultimately move the betting line into the most efficient place. Using the closing line, calculating closing line value becomes a fantastic measurement of a sound process in sports betting. Beating the closing line, or betting on a game at a better number than the game closes at, is extremely difficult, but also typically leads to sustainable long-term success. One hypothetical example of beating the closing line would be betting on the Kansas City Chiefs at -4 on Friday afternoon when the line closes at -5.5. Here, the most efficient number is deemed to be -5.5, leaving the bettor with 1.5 points of closing value. Another hypothetical example, conversely, would be betting on the Carolina Panthers at +7 on Friday afternoon when the line closes at +4 at kickoff. In this example, there would be 3 points of closing line value for the wager on Carolina. As previously stated, consistently registering bets with positive closing line value is a great signal of a bettor who should find success in the future. This season, closing line value (CLV) will be tracked for all recommended wagers, along with the win-loss and profit-loss totals.
Results
Week 1 Review
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Las Vegas Raiders -3 (-105): WIN +1.0 unit, CLV: -0.02 points
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New Orleans Saints -3.5 (-110): WIN +1.14 units, CLV: +0.47 points
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Atlanta Falcons +3 (-120): LOSS -1.20 units, CLV: +3.88 points
Total Profit: +0.94 units
Total CLV: +4.33 points
In Week 1, we successfully both beat the closing line across the three plays and returned a profit overall on the week. Obviously, it is dangerous to read too much into one week, but if we are continually able to beat the closing line, sustainable success is well within reach. Now, let’s dive into the Week 2 slate of games.
New York Giants @ Chicago Bears (-5.5, -110) | TOTAL: 42
Pick: Chicago Bears -5.5 (-110) 1.25 units to win 1.14 units
The Chicago Bears opened their 2020 campaign with a comeback victory over the Detroit Lions. While few expected the Bears to fall behind 23-6, as they did, but even fewer suspected Mitchell Trubisky to lead Chicago to a 21-point fourth-quarter en-route to a 27-23 victory. On the offensive side of the football for the Bears, there is cause for optimism. While many are justifiably skeptical of Trubisky’s ability to take this team over the top, there is no shortage of weapons at his disposal to help make him look competent under-center. On the outside, Allen Robinson remains one of the league’s best possession wide receivers, and opposite him, Anthony Miller is coming into his own at the NFL level. Additionally, Jimmy Graham might have been one of the offseason’s most underrated acquisitions. Graham hauled in 3 of his 6 targets for 25 yards in Week 1, including a jump-ball in the end zone, which opposing defenses have seen all too often throughout his NFL career. He may be nearing the end of the line as an NFL starter but, for now, he should be a critical piece of Chicago’s offensive attack in the red zone. Now, looking at New York’s side of the football, the Giants opened the season with a disappointing 26-16 loss at the hands of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Early on in that matchup, New York’s defense looked formidable, but that can largely be attributed to a lack of chemistry for the Steelers’ offense that was ushering Ben Roethlisberger back into the starting lineup after missing almost all of the 2019 season with an elbow injury. As the game wore on, the Steelers consistently moved the ball both on the ground and through the air with ease. Ultimately, Benny Snell, Jr., who was forced into action after an injury to starting running back James Conner, finished with 19 carries for 113 yards on the ground. Through the air, Ben Roethlisberger was able to pick apart the New York secondary later in the game with a 229-yard and 3-score day through the air. Overall, this New York Giants defense is a poorly-coached unit with sub-par talent littered throughout the unit. Even the team’s most-notable acquisitions in recent memory, like Jabril Peppers, Blake Martinez, and Leonard Williams, have underwhelmed after putting on the red, white, and blue uniforms. The winner of this offense-versus-defense battle will ultimately be determined by quarterback Mitchell Trubisky but given the plethora of playmaking options at his disposal, he does not need to light the world on fire for Chicago’s offense to find success this weekend. Expect the Bears’ skill-position players to win battles consistently in space en-route to a respectable offensive showing.
The New York Giants’ offense was one of the worst units in the NFL during Week 1. Playing in the first half of the Week 1 Monday Night Football doubleheader, there was no shortage of hot takes on Twitter. After just one quarter, some had noted that Daniel Jones’ performance was impressive and encouraging for things to come, which came as a surprise, considering he had led the team to just three points and appeared to whiff on a handful of important, and only moderately difficult throws. As the game wore on, the Steelers’ defense stifled New York’s offense in every phase of the game, as Daniel Jones finished with a pair of interceptions to go with just one non-garbage-time touchdown pass. On the whole, Jones looked like a young quarterback that still needs to make numerous substantial improvements throughout his game before he even sniffs league-average efficiency numbers through the air. On the ground, saying Pittsburgh shut-down New York’s running game would be a gross understatement. Saquon Barkley, undeniably one of the league’s most talented running backs, finished the game with just 6 rushing yards on 15 attempts. The Giants’ offensive line, which was already a concern entering the season, was one of the worst units in the NFL during Week 1, and there is no reason to believe that will change this weekend against the Bears’ front-seven that is led by All-Pro Khalil Mack. While their performance in Week 1 was also uninspiring, as the Lions moved the ball both on the ground and through the air for three-quarters of the game, the talent on this defense leads one to believe they will improve down the line. The Bears have consistently invested high-end draft capital in this defensive unit, trading away multiple draft picks to bring Khalil Mack to town, and then drafting Roquon Smith and Jaylon Johnson within the top-two rounds of the last three NFL Drafts. This unit has been a top-10 defense in the league, according to DVOA, in each of the last two seasons, and this surely has the potential to post a third straight such season. With Jason Garrett, likely one of the league’s worst offensive coordinators, calling the plays for the New York Giants, there is little reason to believe they will find success against a tough Chicago defense, and this battle slants heavily in favor of the Bears.
The true line for this matchup should be a shade over a full touchdown, as the Giants are being overrated by the betting market early in this season. For that reason, the play on this game is 1.25 units on Chicago -5.5 to win 1.14 units at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5, -110) @ Los Angeles Chargers | TOTAL: 47.5
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -8.5 (-110) risk 1.1 units to win 1.0 unit
The reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs opened the season up with an impressive victory over the Houston Texans. Kansas City’s offense looked every bit as potent in the 2020 season opener as they did throughout their record-setting 2019 campaign. Patrick Mahomes II, the half-billion-dollar man, needs little introduction, as he is unquestionably one of the top two quarterbacks in the NFL today. Equipped with electric playmakers like Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and Sammy Watkins, the sky is the limit for this passing attack. Now, adding Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the backfield, this offense will reliably move the ball down the field in a multitude of ways. Opposite them, the Chargers’ defense turned in a strong showing in Week 1, limiting the Cincinnati Bengals to just 13 points in their first game. The defensive front for Los Angeles is undoubtedly their strongest unit on that side of the ball, with Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram III teaming up to provide one of the league’s most powerful edge-rushing tandems. Unfortunately, the rest of the defense is poised to fail at holding up their end of the bargain, as the talent level drops off dramatically in the linebacking corps and secondary. At the back-end of this defense, losing Derwin James to a season-ending knee injury in training camp is absolutely devastating. James is a difference-maker in all phases of the game, and replacing him is nearly impossible. Overall, the Kansas City offense would have a significant edge over almost every defense in the league, let alone a defense that lost an All-Pro talent to injury during the preseason. Expect the Chiefs to light up the scoreboard once again after a long week of rest between their Thursday night opener and this matchup.
In the first game of the post-Philip-Rivers-era, the Los Angeles Chargers offense was disappointing, to say the least. Tyrod Taylor led the Bolts’ offensive attack to just 16 points against a Cincinnati Bengals defense that was just lit up for 34 points by the Cleveland Browns on Thursday Night Football. Taylor threw the ball for just over 200 yards with 0 touchdowns to show for his 2020 debut. This passing attack was rife with red-flags, as Austin Ekeler, one of the most impressive pass-catching running backs in the NFL last year, was only targeted once on the day. On the outside, even Keenan Allen, one of the league’s most consistent wide receivers, was limited to just 37 yards on 4 receptions. In short, the Chargers’ aerial attack was atrocious in their first outing of the season against a sub-par Bengals defense. While Los Angeles did find success on the ground, with both Joshua Kelley and Austin Ekeler running for 60-plus yards and at least 4.4 yards-per-carry, they cannot rely on this unit to win them football games. As mentioned last week, modern football games are not often won on the back of a potent rushing attack-- a potent rushing attack is best served as a compliment to a dangerous passing attack (as is the case with Kansas City.) Now, looking at Kansas City’s defense, this unit is a fairly balanced one. In the trenches, Chris Jones, Frank Clark, and Tanoh Kpassagnon each registered four quarterback hurries in Week 1, a perfect encapsulation of the balance of this pass-rush. While the linebacking unit for Kansas City lacks difference-makers, the secondary has multiple. Tyrann Mathieu and Juan Thornhill combine to make up one of the league’s most dynamic safety pairings, and while Thornhill was limited to just 32 snaps in Week 1, his first game after suffering a torn ACL in Week 17 of 2019, he should see increased playing time this week. Also, on the outside, L’Jarius Sneed showed flashes of brilliance at cornerback in his NFL debut. Sneed, a fourth-round pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, allowed just 2 receptions for 19 yards on the day, and he disrupted numerous other passes thrown in his direction. Adding him to an already solid secondary should cause nightmares for opposing quarterbacks this season. Look for the Los Angeles Chargers’ offense to sputter once again here in Week 2, as the Chiefs are perfectly constructed to contain Tyrod Taylor in the pocket and force him to try to sling the ball around the field from the pocket, which is not his strong suit.
In total, the true line for this game hovers slightly above a 10-point spread in favor of the Chiefs. At -8.5 (-110) this warrants a 1.1 unit wager on Kansas City -8 to win 1.0 unit at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8.5, -110) | TOTAL: 47.5
Pick: Carolina Panthers +8.5 (-110), risk 1.1 units to win 1.0 unit
While we faded both of these teams in Week 1, the betting markets appear still appear to not have properly adjusted for the true impact of Tampa Bay’s offseason acquisitions. In Week 1, the Bucs’ offense sputtered after an impressive opening drive of the game. Throughout the game, Mike Evans, who was able to play after a being limited in practice due to a hamstring injury all week, was mostly held in check. Evans hauled in just a single two-yard pass for a garbage-time touchdown on the day, and the requisite chemistry between him and Tom Brady to beat a high-end NFL cornerback, Marshon Lattimore, simply was not there. Evans was held in check throughout the day with the New Orleans Saints simultaneously devoting their attention to containing Chris Godwin, one of the NFL’s best young receivers. This week, Godwin’s status is in question, as he showed symptoms of a concussion on Wednesday and has not practiced since then. If he is unable to go for Tampa Bay, this would be a massive loss for the passing game, as Rob Gronkowski did not pose much threat in his first game since coming out of retirement. Overall, as stated last week, it is going to take time for this offense to gel and start to fire on all cylinders. If they are without Godwin this weekend, it is unreasonable to expect massive growth from this unit in game number two with Tom Brady under center. Defensively, the Carolina Panthers will likely rank amongst the league’s worst units this season, especially in the early weeks. The Panthers’ historically-young unit has been hurt by the lack of an offseason and with a new head coach in town, the issues are compounding here early on. Last weekend, the Panthers allowed 34 points to the Las Vegas Raiders, including a hat-trick of rushing touchdowns to Josh Jacobs. In short, this young unit will likely fail to contain opposing offenses for much of the season. However, in this matchup, the Buccaneers’ edge in this battle is not as exaggerated as the betting market suggests.
Last week, it was noted that the Panthers offense should have low expectations early on, as they ingratiate a new offensive coordinator, Joe Brady, into the NFL ranks, along with a quarterback, Teddy Bridgewater, playing in his first games with the team. Surprisingly, the Panthers’ offense came out of the gates firing, exceeding all expectations by posting 30 points on the scoreboard against the Las Vegas Raiders. Bridgewater spread the ball around the field, utilizing all four of his dangerous weapons in the passing game: Christian McCaffrey, Robby Anderson, D.J. Moore, and Curtis Samuel. Anderson finished the day with 6 receptions for 114 yards and a score in a new offense that maximizes his ability to stretch the field. Overall, Joe Brady’s passing attack appeared to carry over well in the transition from LSU, where he called plays for one of the most efficient college offenses of all time, to the NFL. Expect growth from this offense throughout the season, and while they should not expect to eclipse 30 points against the league’s tougher defenses, the Carolina Panthers’ offense appears far more dangerous than originally thought. On the other side of the football, Tampa Bay’s defense also looked impressive in their season opener. They held Drew Brees under 200 yards through the air while also allowing less-than 100 rushing yards on the day. Ultimately, the final tally of 34 points allowed in the game does not fully tell the story, as this includes one pick-six and multiple short-field possessions for the Saints that ended in points. Overall, the Bucs’ defense looked strong from top-to-bottom, applying pressure on the quarterback, limiting explosive run plays, and containing an All-Pro receiver, Michael Thomas, to just three receptions on the day. It is dangerous to overreact after just one game, and while last week I noted that the Buccaneers projected to be approximately a league-average defense this season. Now, after revising with one game in the books, I caution against anointing this defense as an elite group on the year. I currently project Tampa Bay’s unit to be slightly-above-average this year, about even with my projection for the Panthers’ offense. This battle is effectively a net-neutral situation, where the Panthers should expect to perform at approximately a league-average level this weekend.
In sum, with the Tampa Bay having a moderate edge offensively over Carolina’s defense and practically zero advantage over the Panthers offense with their defense on the field, the true spread for this game is about 6.5 points. Thus, there is value betting on the Carolina Panthers +8.5 (-110), risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Summary of Picks
Chicago Bears -5.5 (-110) risk 1.25 units to win 1.14 units
Kansas City Chiefs -8.5 (-110) risk 1.1 units to win 1.0 unit
Carolina Panthers +8.5 (-110) risk 1.1 units to win 1.0 unit
As always, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter with any questions, comments, or concerns regarding this article or the weekend's slate of games in general!
