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The late rounds of fantasy football drafts -- especially deep formats or best-ball leagues -- are about shooting for upside and cross-sections of the season with impact. At running back, this points to the 'what if' scenarios beyond the typical NFL starters and even most of the backup situations.
The below matrix and commentary outlines the key depth charts with unsettled RB2 roles and the upside of running backs in the RB3-4 projected status across the 32 NFL teams.
Key Battles
Arizona
Edmonds has the pedigree and incumbent advantage, plus with a massive performance in a one-game spot start role with David Johnson out in 2019.
Value Target: Chase Edmonds
Buffalo
- Zack Moss vs. T.J. Yeldon
Yeldon has revamped his profile since flaming out as an NFL starter earlier in his career as a pass-centric but prototypically-sized option in the LeVeon Bell style spectrum. Most expect Moss to challenge for 1A touches more than battle Yeldon for snaps, but Yeldon is a sturdy third-down and hurry-up back with some upside of usage from there. Moss will have an advantage is pure power running and goal-line areas, but limited by Yeldon's advantage in the passing game, regardless of the initial battle outcome.
Value Target: T.J. Yeldon
Green Bay
- A.J. Dillon vs. Jamaal Williams
Williams has been an underrated performer to-date but Dillon's addition is a prototypical high-usage profile with Round 2 pedigree. Williams will stick in the NFL for a few more years for being a well-rounded option but is likely to lose the battle against Dillon by midseason in 2020 if not earlier. Aaron Jones is more of a target for Dillon's challenge than Williams.
Value Target: A.J. Dillon
Jacksonville
Thompson's health will be a major focus as he has been a top-40 PPR PPG option just once in his career and durability has been a roadblock to-date. Thompson, at his best, could siphon passing game work from Leonard Fournette, but Armstead profiles as more of a three-down replacement to Fournette if the lead job is open via injury. Thompson has a higher floor, but Armstead a higher ceiling.
Value Target: Ryquell Armstead
LA Rams
- Darrell Henderson vs. Malcolm Brown
Cam Akers could also be included in this (initial) three-headed competition for snaps. Expect Akers to win the 1A role sooner rather than later. Henderson was assumed to zoom past Brown in 2019, but the then-rookie did anything but with his sluggish start and Brown was the backup to Todd Gurley until his own midseason injury.
Value Target: Malcolm Brown
Las Vegas
- Lynn Bowden vs. Jalen Richard vs. Devontae Booker
Lynn Bowden has Round 3 pedigree as an offensive weapon type prospect with strong athleticism. Jalen Richard has been an underrated option in the change-of-pace mold. Devontae Booker has the most interior-power-runner profile of the trio but is already in his later-career-bounce-around-the-NFL years where he could struggle to make a depth chart as much as a challenge for a steady RB2-3 role.
Value Target: Lynn Bowden
Pittsburgh
- Anthony McFarland vs. Benny Snell vs. Jaylen Samuels
McFarland infuses the position with overt athleticism, a trait lacking from Benny Snell, who is a big but lumbering back. Samuels had had opportunities for the Steelers to entrust him with more traditional running back usage, but the team has generally suck with his tweener or more receiving-centric DNA dating back to college.
Value Target: Anthony McFarland
Washington
- Adrian Peterson vs. Antonio Gibson vs. Bryce Love
Love had a redshirt rookie season after a late-season ACL injury to close his college career in 2018. Antonio Gibson is a tantalizing combination of size and athleticism, churning out high-efficiency production as an offensive weapon at Memphis. The early Round 3 selection of Gibson by Washington is also a shot in the arm of early-career promise and allegiance for an opportunity. Adrian Peterson remains the all-time talent who continues to outproduce his age and expected decline since being a late-summer signing by Washington two seasons ago when Derrius Guice's injury fueled Peterson late-career revival.
Value Target: Adrian Peterson
Super Deep Targets
- Gus Edwards (stacked Baltimore depth chart, but downhill thumper already productive within the system if depth chart breaks all the way in his direction)
- Ryan Nall (lack of a prototypical option behind David Montgomery leaves Nall on the radar as a big back who can move and catch)
- Rodney Anderson, Trayveon Williams (behind Joe Mixon and Giovani Bernard, both are on the deep trajectory, Williams more in the Bernard template, Anderson an oft-injured but overt physical talent)
- Royce Freeman (could be a trade target by another team, an elite metric prospect now buried in Denver)
- Scottie Phillips (well-rounded profile and little competition behind David Johnson and Duke Johnson Jr in Houston)
- Darrel Williams (a quality combination of size, movement, and receiving ability but clearly behind Damien Williams and Clyde Edwards-Helaire)
- Mike Boone (could be an Alexander Mattison injury away if Dalvin Cook holds out or misses time)
- Michael Warren (rookie with quality size and production in college, could see an uptick as a big back on the roster if Miles Sanders is out)
- Jeff Wilson, JaMycal Hasty (49ers are one of the plug-and-play backfields with their fantasy-friendly system)
- DeeJay Dallas (good enough size, movement, and production, injuries are already a concern in Seattle with Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny on the mend)
