The focus in Week 8 was the weather. Multiple games were heavily scrutinized for the optimal fantasy plays due to high winds or rain expected throughout the contest. Regardless, the disappointing results for some of our favorite players warranted a closer look. To that end, I reviewed a few of our favorite plays heading into Week 8 that disappointed us in the box score and how to approach their values as we head into Week 9.
Quarterback: Lamar Jackson, Ravens
Week 8 Results: 23.5 (Projected), 14.8 (Actual)
The Ravens’ loss to Pittsburgh in Week 8 cemented what we had all been thinking for the past few weeks. Baltimore’s offense isn’t the same powerhouse it was in 2019. That’s not to say they haven’t been dominant. Their only losses were against Kansas City and the undefeated Steelers but the context doesn’t shake us from the idea that Lamar isn’t the same quarterback. At least, not the same fantasy quarterback. He’s only had three QB1 finishes through seven games and was outscored by Daniel Jones, Nick Foles, and Nick Mullens who only played in one quarter. Jackson’s elevated ADP and disappointing results have caused us to look back at our draft process and see what we may have missed in getting aggressive at quarterback on draft day. I took a deeper look at Jackson with some thoughts on how to adjust expectations moving forward.
Advice Moving Forward:
Only viable starters in 12-team leagues should be considered, but Lamar Jackson is still your starting quarterback. I’m giving the slight hedge in favor of anyone that may have picked up someone like Justin Herbert despite already having Jackson. Another example would be if Carson Wentz had been dropped due to the Eagles going on their scheduled bye in Week 9. Regardless, the list of quarterbacks to consider over Lamar is -- as it should be -- short. Jackson isn’t dominating as he did in 2019, but the situation isn’t as dire as some would think.
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Statistic
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2019
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2020
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aDOT
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8.9
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9.4
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Neutral Passing Rate
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45.3%
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46.4%
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Deep Passing Completion Percentage
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45%
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37.8%
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Rush Attempts
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11.7
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9.3
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RZ Rush Attempts
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1.9
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2.4
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Team Yards per Drive
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41.8
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31.7
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Team Points per Drive
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3.1
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2.4
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On the surface, Lamar’s stats in a number of areas look similar but they’re down just enough to get us to QB12 in PPG instead of having him sit back atop the ranks. The biggest difference is the team’s offensive efficiency which was expected to regress this season. Losing over 10 yards per drive has resulted in fewer plays run per drive and decreased scoring on a weekly basis. It’s a cascade effect that’s been highlighted by a tough defensive matchup in Week 8. Regardless, we’re looking towards the playoffs for Lamar and the rest of the Ravens’ offense as they get to face the Cowboys, Browns, Jaguars, and Giants starting in Week 13. With time to adjust to defensive coverage, Jackson can continue to stay in the QB1 conversation for the remainder of the season.
Running Back: Jonathan Taylor, Colts
Week 8 Results: 17.4 (Projected), 5.1 (Actual)
We got exactly what we wanted for Jonathan Taylor. After Marlon Mack went down, Taylor’s snaps and touch share steadily increased while we waited patiently for the production to spike. His athletic profile and collegiate metrics indicated he could exceed, but he’s yet to meet expectations let alone exceed them. He managed just 59 yards against the Jets in Week 3 who had since allowed 91 yards to Myles Gaskin and 107 to Melvin Gordon. Taylor only produced 60 yards against the Bengals who had just lost their defensive tackle and allowed an average of 85 yards to opposing running backs prior to Week 5. Taylor’s collegiate ability is yet to translate over to the NFL and fantasy managers who drafted or traded for the rookie have been left holding the bag. I broke down the situation a bit further and looked at the reasons why we should adjust our expectations for Taylor in the coming weeks.
Advice Moving Forward:
Taylor falls into the low-end RB2 category until we get more clarity. The report from Frank Reich regarding Taylor’s ankle injury was the headline coming of out Week 8, but the fact that it didn’t impact the rookie’s production has been left out of the discussion. Regardless, his status for Week 9 (and beyond) bears watching as we’re not left with much to hang on to after Week 8. Taylor saw his lowest snap share and share of running back touches since he took over in Week 2. What’s worse is that he’s yet to consistently display the traits he showed while at Wisconsin. Taylor led the Big 10 in forced missed tackles to go with his 226-pound frame and 4.39 speed. The combination of size, speed, and power set the expectation that Taylor could shoulder the workload in nearly any situation once he got the NFL. However, he hasn’t avoided a tackle since Week 4 and he has just 1 broken tackle on the season. In addition, we saw his short-yardage deficiency on display in Week 8 after failing to convert a one-yard score. The workload didn’t condense in Taylor’s favor like the fantasy community had hoped which moves him into RB2/FLEX territory moving forward. How the Colts game plan for Baltimore in Week 9 should give us a clearer picture of how they want to use Taylor throughout the rest of the season given both teams sit at 5-2 and are still in playoff contention. Most fantasy managers were considering other options given the matchup so we can take the week to evaluate Taylor’s talent and workload as the rookie continues to transition into the NFL.
Wide Receiver: D.J. Moore, Panthers
Week 8 Results: 14.6 (Projected), 7.5 (Actual)
If I had to guess, offseason priors on the workload between D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson are causing most of the disappointment. Moore had the comfort of playing out the slot on 25.3% of his targets in 2019 and Anderson primarily played outside making the evaluation seem simple. Especially given Teddy Bridgewater’s tendency to keep passes short, Moore had the inside track on Anderson headed into the season. But their roles have been reversed in almost every category. It’s caused most fantasy managers to look back on their third-round draft pick as a bust. Week 8 didn’t do much to change their position. Moore saw one target in the first half and wasn’t seen again until the fourth quarter. It was Curtis Samuel’s night, but Anderson still saw his fair share of targets to (barely) outscore Moore yet again. With the third-year receiver’s fantasy value in flux, I looked into his usage and if there’s more reason to be concerned as we get closer to the fantasy playoffs.
Advice Moving Forward:
Adjust your roster to account for Moore’s floor than his possible ceiling. While we can’t predict touchdowns, targets and receiving yards are fairly stable. Through eight games, Moore’s 23% target share is well within the range of other established WR1s (e.g. A.J. Brown, Allen Robinson). Even his air yard share (41%) speaks to his opportunity within his own offense and compares well to other top receivers in the league (DK Metcalf 44%, Adam Thielen 41%). His problem is a perceived lack of production. Moore recorded 1,175 receiving yards in 2019 which was considered his breakout season. He has 622 yards so far this season and on pace for 1,244 by seasons end. He’s even on pace for more touchdowns as he scored four last season and already has 3 in 2020. By almost every metric, Moore is on the same production path as he was last season. But we expected another step forward after he finished as the WR16 in 2019. Plus, any positive spin on this year’s production immediately shifts as soon as you compare him to Robby Anderson. Anderson has the greater target share on shorter routes (smaller aDOT compared to Moore) with three additional targets from within the 20-yard line. His usage has been a transformation from his time with the Jets, but that shouldn’t completely cloud our view of Moore. We can mitigate any concerns with high-ceiling plays elsewhere on our roster, but Moore should continue to be a solid option moving forward.
