Winning on FantasyDraft - Week 16

Photo: USA Today Sports

Footballguys has partnered with FantasyDraft and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests. This article will usually appear on Saturdays and not include the early Thursday games.

My approach to FantasyDraft's Daily Games

In salary cap games where other companies are determining prices, I like to see where their thoughts differ substantially from my projections. My value chart below matches my projections against FantasyDraft's prices:

Some explanation of my Excel manipulation is in order:

• Everything is sorted by position
• I have converted my projections to FantasyDraft Fantasy Points. These figures appear in the FP column.
• The Price column reflects FantasyDraft's Week 16 Price
• The Ratio column reflects the expected points multiplier (per thousand of salary). The higher the value the better.
• H-Value represents our own proprietary formula that matches the price and expected fantasy points (the higher the value the better).
• ETP = A team's expected points via the Las Vegas spread and under/over totals. The higher the better.
• In the 2017 Cracking DFS books, I demonstrated that selecting players who were in the upper half of the Ratio, H-Value, and Expected Team Point indicators at their positions led to the best fantasy success. I call these three factors the Criteria.
• I have highlighted the player's names (in green) that should be strong considerations for your lineups. Most of these players meet the criteria factors. These selections generally reflect the most bang for the buck at their respective positions. Players in yellow represent other selections that I rate slightly worse than the top plays at their position. Players in blue represent potential boosts due to others scratching.

Expected Team Points

Make sure you get your shares of players involved on teams with expected high team totals. Here are the eight NFL teams expected of scoring at least 24 points on this slate. Listed by descending expected team points:

• Seattle Seahawks vs ARI) - 30.00 points
• Baltimore Ravens at CLE) - 29.25 points
• Atlanta Falcons vs JAC) - 27.00 points
• Indianapolis Colts vs CAR) - 26.75 points
• New Orleans Saints at TEN) - 26.25 points
• Los Angeles Chargers vs OAK) - 26.00 points
• Kansas City Chiefs at CHI) - 25.25 points
• Dallas Cowboys at PHI) - 24.00 points

and one near-miss...

• Tennessee Titans vs NO) - 23.75 points

Situations that stand out to me this week

• Teams playing for pride only - This is the time of the year for bad teams to rest stars while evaluating younger players that could have a bigger role in 2020 and beyond. Conversely, the teams battling for those playoff spots tend to lean on their stars as if it was already a playoff game.
  
  
• The Atlanta Falcons passing offense vs the Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense - Over the last four weeks, the Falcons have averaged 290 passing yards and 1.8 touchdowns. During that same span, the Jaguars have yielded 284 yards and 1.8 touchdowns through the air. Julio Jones ($15,200) was a difference-maker last week and could be in for another huge performance.
  
  
• The Los Angeles Chargers passing offense vs the Oakland Raiders pass defense - Over the last four weeks, the Chargers have averaged 304 passing yards and 2.3 touchdowns. During that same span, the Raiders have yielded a 271 yards and 2.0 touchdowns through the air. I like Keenan Allen ($12,900) to make the most of this mismatch.
  
  
• The Tennessee Titans passing offense vs the New Orleans pass defense - The Titans are getting their stride back and have averaged 278 passing yards and 2.2 touchdowns through the air in their last 4 weeks. The Saints once-feared defense has yielded 279 yards and 2.5 touchdowns through the air during that same span. QB Ryan Tannehill ($11,300) and TE Jonnu Smith ($5,900) are among my favorite stacks to play in GPPs this week.
  
  
• The Baltimore Ravens rush offense vs the Cleveland Browns rush defense - Over the last four weeks, the Ravens are averaging 200 rushing yards and 0.8 touchdowns on the ground. The Browns are yielding 155 yards and 1.8 touchdowns via the run over the same time period. It's hard to imagine a scenario where Lamar Jackson ($14,700) doesn't shred this unit.
  
  
• RB DeAndre Washington, OAK ($7,800) is vastly underpriced. He has a tough matchup against the Chargers, but without Josh Jacobs will have plenty of opportunities to reach value. In cash-game, he is the free-square everyone should be playing.
  
  
• Michael Thomas ($17,000) is still a bargain at this price. He is wrecking the NFL record books and the Titans aren't good enough to stop him.
  
  
• With an expected team total of just 19.75 points, this is a good spot to fade Christian McCaffrey at his lofty $19,500 price tag. He could still reach value, but he is not the same value he has been in games where the Panthers were expected to score 23+ points. Rookie QB Will Grier is a complete unknown and he falters, he may bring down McCaffrey with him.

Cash+ Stacks I am targeting (listed highest to lowest RATIO)

• RB DeAndre Washington / TD Oakland Raiders (Cost = $12,300, FP = 21.0, Ratio = 1.71)
• QB Matt Ryan / TE Austin Hooper (Cost = $20,000, FP = 32.5, Ratio = 1.63)
• QB Matt Ryan / WR Julio Jones (Cost = $26,800, FP = 42.9, Ratio = 1.60)
• QB Ryan Tannehill / TE Jonnu Smith (Cost = $17,200, FP = 27.6, Ratio = 1.60)
• QB Lamar Jackson / TE Hayden Hurst (Cost = $20,200, FP = 32.2, Ratio = 1.59)
• QB Carson Wentz / WR Greg Ward (Cost = $19,900, FP = 31.6, Ratio = 1.59)
• RB Phillip Lindsay / TD Denver Broncos (Cost = $16,700, FP = 26.4, Ratio = 1.58)
• QB Mitchell Trubisky / WR Anthony Miller (Cost = $20,100, FP = 31.7, Ratio = 1.58)
• QB Matt Ryan / WR Russell Gage (Cost = $20,300, FP = 31.4, Ratio = 1.55)
• QB Kyler Murray / WR Christian Kirk (Cost = $21,900, FP = 33.9, Ratio = 1.55)
• QB Drew Brees / WR Michael Thomas (Cost = $29,400, FP = 45.4, Ratio = 1.54)
• QB Lamar Jackson / TE Mark Andrews (Cost = $25,300, FP = 38.6, Ratio = 1.53)
• QB Philip Rivers / WR Keenan Allen (Cost = $24,100, FP = 36.3, Ratio = 1.51)
• QB Lamar Jackson / WR Willie Snead IV (Cost = $21,400, FP = 32.1, Ratio = 1.50)
• QB Dak Prescott / WR Michael Gallup (Cost = $22,400, FP = 33.4, Ratio = 1.49)
• QB Lamar Jackson / WR Marquise Brown (Cost = $25,600, FP = 38.1, Ratio = 1.49)
• QB Ryan Fitzpatrick / WR DeVante Parker (Cost = $24,000, FP = 35.4, Ratio = 1.48)
• QB Andy Dalton / WR Tyler Boyd (Cost = $21,800, FP = 31.6, Ratio = 1.45)
• QB Carson Wentz / TE Zach Ertz (Cost = $24,400, FP = 35.1, Ratio = 1.44)
• QB Patrick Mahomes II II / WR Tyreek Hill (Cost = $28,100, FP = 39.8, Ratio = 1.42)
• QB Mitchell Trubisky / WR Allen Robinson (Cost = $24,200, FP = 34.2, Ratio = 1.41)
• QB Patrick Mahomes II II / TE Travis Kelce (Cost = $27,400, FP = 38.3, Ratio = 1.40)

Players for GPP differentiation

• QBs: Carson Wentz, Kyler Murray, Philip Rivers, Gardner Minshew, Patrick Mahomes II
• RBs: Tarik Cohen, Myles Gaskin, Boston Scott, Nick Chubb, Derrick Henry
• WRs: Alex erickson, Danny Amendola, Kenny Golloday, Allen Robinson, Chris Conley
• TEs: Jonnu Smith, Dallas Goedert, Jared Cook, Jason Witten, Blake Jarwin
• Def: Lions, Cowboys, Eagles, Titans, Jaguars

Sample Roster 1 ($60K) - Cash Projected Points = (156.8)

• QB Lamar Jackson, BAL - $14,700
• RB DeAndre Washington, OAK - $7,800
• RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN - $10,000
• TE Austin Hooper, ATL - $8,400
• WR Michael Thomas, NO - $17,000
• WR Julio Jones, ATL - $15,200
• Flex: RB Austin Ekeler, LAC - $11,400
• Flex: WR Jarvis Landry, CLE - $10,900
• TD Detroit Lions - $4,500