#Trendspotting: Week 14

Reader's Guide

As you read, you may run into some colors in the text. Blue text is a good matchup for that team's offensive players. Red text is a bad matchup. Some other key items are below:

• All red/blue highlighting in tables is relative to the entire NFL, even when showing a limited number of teams.
• All reference to fantasy points assumes DraftKings scoring rules unless otherwise specified.
• All stats reference the full 2018 season unless otherwise specified.
• All fantasy points rankings are on a per-game basis to account for bye weeks unless otherwise specified.

This week, we'll discuss the following topics:

• Follow the Targets
• Strengths and Weaknesses / Funnel Watch
• Looks Can Be Deceiving
• The Weakest Links

Follow the Targets

This section will examine which offensive positions have the most success through the air against certain defenses.

Commentary

• The Jets allow 49.5 receiving yards per game to running backs, sixth-most in the NFL.
• Seattle allows 66.8 yards per game to tight ends, third-most in the NFL.
• Seattle opponents target tight ends on 24.2% of pass attempts, the fourth-highest ratio.
• Rams tight ends have scored the 12th-most fantasy points among all tight end groups in the NFL.
• Arizona allows 188.8 receiving yards per game to wide receivers, third-most.

Action Items

Patrick Laird has received some irrational buzz recently, but his situation this week might merit some justifiable buzz. Aside from the fact that he caught 5 of Miami's 38 targets last week (13.2% share), Kalen Ballage is now injured and is doubtful to play, per the illustrious Dr. Jene.

On top of that, the Jets have notable injuries. All of this conspires to make Laird a viable GPP play in DFS. He's cheap enough that cash game viability is on the table, but his playing time in non-negative game scripts is still unproven.

#Jets S Jamal Adams (ankle) quietly leads team in pressures (15), blitzes (60), and sacks (6.5). Backups Blake Countess and Matthias Farley have combined for 3 defensive snaps all year. Potential winners: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mike Gesicki, Patrick Laird.

— John Daigle (@notJDaigle) December 4, 2019

Also doubtful per Dr. Jene is Gerald Everett, which puts Week 13 DFS hero Tyler Higbee back in play. He's off the main slate, but Higbee is cash game viable in Thursday-Monday contests and a low-end TE1 in season-long leagues.

Also on the injury front, keep an eye on JuJu Smith-Schuster's status. James Washington has been building chemistry with his new duck-calling quarterback in ways you'd imaging and also ways you might not have seen coming. DraftKings has used the matchup and recent production to price up Washington to a point that it feels uncomfortable to play him, making him a GPP-only candidate.

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Funnel Watch + Strengths and Weaknesses

This section will dissect how offenses gain their yards and how defenses allow them.

First, here are the traditional "Funnel Watch" tables. It's been a while since we've used this exact format, but long-time readers will remember that it used to be a staple of the column.

Pass Funnels

PaYd/Gm = passing yards per game allowed
RuYd/Gm = rushing yards per game allowed
NYd/Att = net yards per pass attempts (passing yards - sack yards) / (pass attempts - times sacked)
Yd/Rush = yards per carry
"PassYd%" = the percentage of a team's yards allowed via the pass
"RushYd%" = the percentage of a team's yards allowed via the rush 

This week is a Rent-a-Quarterback delight as each pass funnel defense is facing a not-so-elite quarterback. Tennessee and Oakland both appear on the list and play each other this week, making that game an interesting GPP game-stack option.

Run Funnels